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Futures

FX Rundown


Euro (June)

Session close: Settled at 1.1795

Fundamentals: Volume was decent today given the German holiday. Late Friday, Italy’s Five Star Movement and the League agreed on a coalition to bring a populist government to Italy. They are calling for large spending increases; massive tax cuts, welfare, pension reforms and more. Italian stocks lost 1.5% on the session and are down 3% over the last month. Italian 10-years gained 15 basis points on the session on fears that the government will not be able to meet payments. While this weakened the Euro, the Dollar also strengthened on news that the U.S and China trade war is “on hold for now”. The Euro traded to a new low of 1.17395 and tested major three-star support but has pared all loses back to unchanged on the session. This morning, Chicago Fed National Activity came in better than expected. Fed President Bostic did not update his stance on the path of rates but maintained that the U.S is close to meeting the Fed’s employment and inflation goals. Fed President Harker pointed to two and maybe three more hikes this year if inflation continues to firm, however, there was not much of a reaction and he is not a voting member this year. Fed President Kashkari speaks at 4:30 pm CT, he is a dovish view at the Fed but not a voting member this year.

Technicals: Today was the session we have been waiting for in the Euro; major three-star support at 1.1735 was achieved. Furthermore, the Dollar Index neared and failed at its major three-star resistance at 94.00-94.25 with a high of 93.965. We are now Bullish in Bias, the momentum feels to have turned and the downside feels exhausted; if we are not going to take a shot long now, then, when would we? First resistance comes in at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

Yen (June)

Session close: Settled at .9015

Fundamentals: The Yen posted another losing session and dipped its head below .9000 for much of the early morning before paring some losses. Trade Balance data Sunday night was a positive but comes on the heels of a string of poor reads. The real weight came on Dollar strength after a trade war between the U.S and China has been averted for now; this took some risk premium out of the safe-haven currency, however, U.S Treasuries and Gold traded much better from overnight lows. Also, Japan’s government approved a change made in the policy statement by the Bank of Japan in their recent quarterly report; they removed a time-frame to achieve its inflation target. BoJ Core CPI data is due at midnight CT.

Technicals: We have maintained a slight Bearish Bias in the Yen, pointing to such as long as the currency remains below the 200-day moving average which comes in today at .9168. Our target to the downside is ...  Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels

 

 

Aussie (June)

Session close: Settled at .7571

Fundamentals: The Aussie was one of the biggest beneficiaries on the currency side with the reduction in trade fears. It gained 1% today and saw support from the metals and energy sectors as well after Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said that the U.S and China have put the trade war on hold and China will ramp up buying of U.S agricultural and energy products. This presented an opportunity to go long Sunday night with the idea of a relief rally for the Aussie in sight. There is no data tonight and we look to Westpac Consumer Sentiment and Construction data tomorrow evening.

Technicals: We did introduce a slight Bearish Bias on our last FX Rundown on Thursday evening after a series of lower highs, however, we specifically said that we must see a close below .7470 in order to confirm this. Friday’s settlement was .7511. In fact, Sunday night’s open became a true buying opportunity given the fundamental news. Now though, price action is out above first key resistance and momentum should be able to carry it ...  Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels

 

 

Canadian (June)

Session close: Settled at .7811

Fundamentals: Today was Victoria Day, a banking holiday in Canada. Still the currency notched a solid session pushing gains to 0.75% into the electronic session. The Canadian was late to the party but the buyers stepped up after 10:00 am CT when the price of Crude and Gasoline began to rip higher. Price action plummeted on Friday on a horrendous Core Retail Sales read that came in at -0.2% versus +0.5% expected. Core excludes autos while the headline read actually doubled the 0.3% expectations. CPI was an unenthusiastic number. Without any news on NAFTA ahead of the weekend, traders were quick to hit the sell button on the data. Tomorrow, Wholesale Sales is due at 7:30 am CT. Now that the U.S and China trade talks have take a positive turn for the near but foreseeable futures, more bandwidth can be applied to NAFTA ahead of nearing deadlines.

Technicals: The Canadian struggled to hold the .7790 pivot on Friday, but with price action back above there today, we remain slightly Bullish in Bias. First key resistance comes in at ...  Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels

 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

This article is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with iBlue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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Macro

Interactive Brokers - Weekly Roundup


The analysis in this article is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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Macro

Morningstar - Oil Prices This High Are Not Sustainable


We see the price of oil, along with the valuations of many E&P stocks, as frothy today, but DiamondBack is one pocket of value.

Morningstar provides a constant source for investment ideas with our comprehensive analyst reports on equities, ETFs, and credit ratings from more than 100 analysts. U.S. Interactive Brokers clients can sign up for a free trial of these reports in Account Management.

This video is from Morningstar and is being posted with Morningstar's permission. The information provided in this video is from Morningstar and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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Futures

Interactive Brokers - Join us for a Free Webinar: Update on India: Accessing the World's Fastest Growing Large Economy via Offshore Futures


Join us for a Free Webinar: Singapore Exchange - Update on India: Accessing the World’s Fastest Growing Large Economy via Offshore FuturesWednesday, May 23, 2018 4:30 AM - 5:30 AM EDT

REGISTER

By some measures, India has surpassed China as the world’s fastest growing large economy, but it is still one of the most difficult stock and currency markets for foreign investors to access.

This webinar discusses how to use offshore SGX-listed futures to trade India following this year’s updates and explains how the new SGX India Futures work.

Sponsored by: Singapore Exchange

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.


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Technical Analysis

Asbury Research - Chart of the Week


The US Stock Market

Chart Patterns: S&P 500 (SPX) and Russell 2000 (RUT)
MINOR DECISION POINT, NEAR TO INTERMEDIATE TERM BULLISH. 

We showed in Chart 1 of our last week’s report that SPX is currently rising out of almost four months of sideways investor indecision to suggest its larger 2016 advance is resuming. 

The chart below shows that the small cap Russell 2000 is also rising from similar investor indecision, targeting an additional 8% rise to 1750 that will remain valid as long as the upper boundary of the indecision area at 1600 now loosely holds as underlying support.

Asbury Research subscribers can view the entire report, which includes all 10 of this week’s Keys to US market direction, by subscribing via the Interactive Brokers platform or through Asbury Research.

 

Asbury Research subscribers can view the entire report, which includes all 10 of this week’s Keys to US market direction, by subscribing via the Interactive Brokers platform or through Asbury Research.

Asbury Research provides investors with a forward looking, strategic forecast of the US financial landscape 1-2 quarters out, and then defines specific tactical and actionable investment opportunities within that larger forecast via a unique and proprietary multi-layered approach that includes quantitative, technical, and behavioral analysis.  Our focus is on the US stock market and market sectors, US interest rates, the US Dollar, and economically influential commodities like gold, crude oil, and copper, but our scope is global as we integrate our database of worldwide inter-market relationships to add breadth, depth and accuracy to our investment conclusions. Interactive Brokers customers can subscribe to Asbury Research in Account Management.

This material is from Asbury Research and is being posted with Asbury Research’s permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Asbury Research. Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The analysis in this material is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


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