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Macro

Risk Off in Asia After Democrat Victory in Alabama Senate Race


Morning Briefing December 13th 2017


The economic docket kicks off on Wednesday with German Wholesale Prices and HICP data, both at 0700GMT.

At 0900GMT Italian Industrial Production figures will hit the wires.

The UK Labour Market Survey will be published at 0930GMT. The UK unemployment rate held steady at its 42-year low of 4.3% in the three months to September but single month outturns of 4.2% in both August and September means a drop in the headline rate may on the cards in the October.

The UK labour market remains tight and over the year has the number of those in employment grow, though of late this trend has been a little more subdued (there was -14k drop in the 3m to September).

At 1000GMT are Eurozone Employment figures and Industrial Production data.

Across the Atlantic the first release of the day is US MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Index at 1200GMT.

Also at 1200GMT the UK Prime Minister Theresa May will face a weekly round of PMQ’s.

US CPI figures are scheduled for 1330GMT. The CPI is expected to rise 0.4% in November following a 0.1% rise in October. Analysts expect energy prices to rebound solidly after October's 1.0% decline. AAA reported a rebound in mid-month prices from October to November. The core CPI is forecast to post another 0.2% increase in October.

Also at 1330GMT is Canadian International Investment Position.

Weekly US DoE Crude Oil Inventories will hit the wires at 1530GMT.

The main event of the day at 1900GMT is the FOMC Rate Announcement. The FOMC are widely expected to hike rates 25bp, though markets expect their tone to be dovish.

Rounding off the day at 1930GMT Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will give a press conference, in Washington.

Global Economic Trading Calendar


Markets


SNAPSHOT: Below gives key levels of markets in the second half of the Asia-Pac session: - Nikkei 225 down 134.43 points at 22727.5 - ASX 200 down 0.004 points at 6013.2 - Shanghai Comp. down 3.983 points at 3276.83 - JGB 10-Yr future up 1 ticks at 150.92, JGB 10-Yr yield up 0.5bp at 0.052% - Aussie 3-Yr future down 2.5 ticks at 97.985, yield up 2.4bp at 1.99% - Aussie 10-Yr future down 1.25 ticks at 97.4475, yield up 0.9bp at 2.528% - US 10-Yr future up 2 ticks at 124.06, US 10-Yr yield down 0.89bp at 2.3922%

US TSY/RECAP: Treasuries ended Tues lower but managed to trim losses in half after a fairly strong $12B 30Y bond reopening auction. The auction stopped through to a 2.804% rate, with good 61.9% indirects, and OK 9.03% directs, leaving manageable 29.1% for dealers to mop up.

BOJ: The Bank of Japan purchases total Y960bln of JGB's from the market, all sizes unchanged from the previous operations - Y250bln 1-3 Year JGB's - Y300bln 3-5 Year JGB's - Y410bln 5-10 Year JGB's

STOCKS: Stocks in Asia are mostly lower, slight losses in the morning session are accelerated after the news that Democrat Doug Jones wins the Alabama Senate vote which sparks some risk off trade. The Nikkei 225 is down 115 points at 22751, after opening flat the index gradually trended lower through the morning session and fell off a cliff at the start of the afternoon session post Alabama Senate news. 5/11 sectors are in the red on the Nikkei, the biggest losers are IT and Materials sectors as investors take profit on IT companies and the metals complex weakens. - Mainland China is lower but in Hong Kong the Hang Seng is up around 69 points at 28862. The Hang Seng is recovering from its worst day in a week yesterday and is being led higher gains in Unicom after a positive report from Jefferies.

OIL: Oil is higher in Asia-Pac trade on Wednesday, WTI last up $0.39 at $57.53, Brent up $0.62 at $63.96 still benefiting from the closure of the North Sea Forties pipeline. At these levels oil is still sharply lower than the start of trade on Tuesday after WTI declined some $1.50/bbl. The drop came after the EIA forecast a further increases in US output in 2018, MNI sources also noted broad profit taking with some stops hit on the way down. - WTI saw a slight rise after API inventory data showed headline crude stocks fell 7.38mln bbls against an expected 3.8mln bbls drop.

GOLD: Gold is marginally lower in Asia-Pac trade, the yellow metal last down $0.17 at $1,244.32. Gold opened the session at $1,246.03 after recovering from a drop to below $1,237 during US hours on Tuesday as risk on took hold and US stocks hit record highs. Profit taking at the start of Asia trade initially took bullion lower to $1,242.52 before the the win for Democrat Doug Jones in the Alabama Senate vote saw a flight to safety and helped to recover most of the decline in the precious metal.

US TSYS: The win for Democrat Doug Jones in the Alabama Senate vote saw a flight to safety. The victory erodes the already narrow margin that Republicans hold in the Senate to 51-49 (previous 52-48). That would therefore cast some doubt on the ongoing tax legislation, and other legislation from the Trump administration. - Jones will not take his seat until 2018, so there is a chance that Republicans can pass the bill before the New Year. Even so other proposed legislation now becomes more difficult; the debt ceiling, infrastructure bill and the budget all become much bigger hurdles now.

FOREX: Currency markets mostly consolidated ahead of key economic data and central bank meetings, news that Democrat Doug Jones had defeated Republican Roy Moore in Alabama's Senate election caused a brief bout of dollar weakness before reverting back to range trading. Republicans now hold 51-49 majority in the Senate(prior 52-48), which may be a headwind to the passage of the tax bill. On the session, dollar-yen held a Y113.13 to Y113.58 range. Aussie pushed higher from $0.7553 to $0.7581 before fading. Euro-dollar rose from $1.1736 to $1.1762 before stalling. Meanwhile, cable consolidated within a fairly narrow $1.3313 to $1.3334 range, with the focus on today's UK Labour report.

Technical Analysis


BUND: (H18) 163.17 Support Continues To Confirm Significance

*RES 4: 163.93 Daily Bull channel top (off Sept low)
*RES 3: 163.89 Low June 1 now resistance (Cont)
*RES 2: 163.78 High Dec 11
*RES 1: 163.45 Hourly support Dec 12 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 163.35

*SUP 1: 163.17 Low Dec 8
*SUP 2: 162.85 21-DMA
*SUP 3: 162.79 Hourly support Dec 5
*SUP 4: 162.48 Daily Bull channel base (off Oct 25 low)    

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 6mth highs lacked follow through Monday, capped by the Bollinger top (163.85). The 163.17 support remains key. Bears continue to look for a close below 163.17 to ease bullish pressure and below 162.79 to shift focus to layers of support 161.93-162.00 where the 55-DMA (161.96) is located. While 163.17 supports bulls remain focused on daily bull channel tops with a close above 163.45 to add to bullish confidence.

EUROSTOXX50: 3497.29 & 3642.10 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: 3670.47 Low Nov 6 now resistance
*RES 3: 3642.10 Low Nov 8 now resistance
*RES 2: 3620.01 High Nov 10
*RES 1: 3600.96 55-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3600.35

*SUP 1: 3569.59 21-DMA
*SUP 2: 3558.50 Low Dec 7
*SUP 3: 3547.56 Hourly resistance Dec 6 now support
*SUP 4: 3529.62 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Support continued to emerge on dips back towards the 200-DMA and weekly bull channel base (3526.37) last week although follow through remains lacking above the 55-DMA (3598.79). Bulls need a close above 3642.10 to confirm traction above the bear channel top (3596.55) and 55-DMA, initially targeting 2017 highs. Below 3497.29 is needed to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and the weekly bull channel base, with below 3467.78 to target 3363.68-3397.27.

Eurex Futures Market Close


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This article is from Eurex Exchange and is being posted with Eurex Exchange’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Eurex Exchange and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice


15693




Technical Analysis

USDCAD Consolidating Ahead of FOMC/Rate Decision


The USDCAD consolidated again yesterday just below the October and November high, and is expected to continue today within a tight range as the market begins anticipating the FOMC at 2pm EST and its rate decision.  Significantly, the USDCAD appears to be in the late stages of an Inverse Head & Shoulders (on the weekly chart), and is particularly bullish longer term with the neckline (that began July) tilting upwards.  This neckline coincides roughly with the psychologically key 1.3 whole figure level, along with what could be downchannel resistance (on the weekly chart).  As a result, resistance at 1.3 will be stiff, and will likely hold for the balance of the year.  The weekly and daily RSI and Stochastics are tiring, suggesting bulls will be cautious today ahead of the FOMC especially after strong gains since September.  I am looking to go long in the green zone (of the daily chart) following the FOMC, targeting the red zone ahead of Friday.  The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I set my stops tighter).
 
USDCAD Weekly/Daily/4hr
 
 
 
Click here for today's technical analysis on BTCUSD, ETHUSD
 

Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures and spot FX markets can be analyzed to enhance trading performance. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, and interest rates), spot FX and cryptocurrency markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

 

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 

 


15692




Futures

FX Rundown


Euro (December)

Session close: Settled at 1.17415, down 49 ticks

Fundamentals: The Euro fell out of bed this morning after U.S PPI came in strong and the YoY November read was 3.1%, the fastest growth in nearly six years. Earlier in the morning, the Euro was put on its back foot after German and Eurozone Sentiment data missed expectations. Traders now gear up for tomorrow’s Fed meeting in which they are expected to hike interest rates at 1:00 pm CT. First, CPI data is due at 7:30 am CT and if it comes in as solid as PPI we will see further pressure on the Euro into the afternoon. However, we continue to believe that the Dollar is a ‘buy the rumor, sell the fact’ into the Fed meeting. Lets also not forget that Thursday brings the ECB meeting.

Technicals: Our technical levels continue to work tremendously in the Euro with major three-star support stopping price action in its tracks with a session low of 1.17215. For tomorrow we are looking for a move out above resistance at 1.1820 or below major support to encourage follow through into Thursday. Though we remain long term bullish, a close below 1.1728-1.1730 will signal lower price action in the near term.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance – 1.1820**, 1.18875-1.1903**, 1.1942**, 1.19975-1.2019***, 1.2154-1.2180****

Support – 1.1728-1.1730***, 1.1672**, 1.15785*, 1.1481-1.15***

 

Yen (December)

Session close: Settled at .8806, down 6 ticks

Fundamentals: Last night PPI data out of Japan came in strong, however, the currency showed little reaction as much of the focus comes down to this week’s Fed meeting. Strong U.S PPI put pressure on the Yen early but concern over comments from Senator Paul signing the tax bill spiked price action briefly. We continue to feel the downside risk is limited and the Yen is only one small catalyst away from reinvigorating a rally to multi-month highs.

Technicals: Price action appears as if it is trying to bottom against support at .8790-.8801 and the 14-day RSI is at the lowest level in more than a month. The 9-day moving average is attempting to round out and if we can see a move back above there at .8854 that will neutralize the Yen in the near-term and give the bulls a shot at taking it higher immediately.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance - .8845-.8854**, .8886**, .8934-.8941**, .9018-.9045***

Support - .8790-.8801**, .8730***

 

Aussie (December)

Session close: Settled at .7558, up 27 ticks

Fundamentals: The Aussie has been the best performing major currency against the U.S Dollar over the last couple sessions. However, part of this is because it was oversold as well as riding the coat tails of the New Zealand Dollar which saw strength due to a changing of the guard behind their central bank. Tonight, RBA Governor Lowe speaks, Home Sales data is due at 6:00 pm CT along with a speech from Assistant Governor Kent. The Aussie will be squarely in the spotlight tomorrow evening with jobs data as well as Industrial Production and Fixed Asset Investment from China.

Technicals: The rally in the Aussie this week is more or less shorts closing positions and now the move back above .7530-.7559 neutralizes the tape completely as a data filled Wednesday gets underway. Watch for a close above or below the pivot to give an edge to either camp.

Bias: Neutral

Resistance - .7595-.7605**, .7645-.7676***, .7726-.7755**, .7824**, .7891-.7893***

Pivot - .7530-.7559***

Support - .7390****

 

Canadian (December)

Session close: Settled at .77695, down 12.5 ticks

Fundamentals: Today was a whipsaw session for the Canadian as it followed the price of Crude Oil. Brent Crude was up about $1 early on the session this morning on news of a pipeline shutdown in the North Sea, but as the day developed and the worries on how long the pipeline will remain out dissipated, Brent Crude finished the session down 1.35. The Canadian followed the path, trading up more than a quarter before reversing about half a penny. However, strong U.S PPI data also played a role in the reversal of the Canadian.

Technicals: Price action continues to battle against major three-star support and we remain long term Bullish, however this is somewhat Neutralized now ahead of the FOMC risk. The early morning rally failed to regain resistance at .7824 and this will be the key level in which the Canadian needs to close out above in order to encourage further buying and for us to become out right Bullish once again.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance – .7824**, .7843*, .7862**, 79225-.7960***, .8019-.8035**, .8293****

Support - .7730-.7745***, .7671**, 7550***

 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

This article is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with iBlue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


15689




Technical Analysis

Technical Take: Silver Sitting on Critical Support


“Silver and gold, silver and gold” ….   Precious metals gold and silver started off strong in 2017 with gains of 5.5% and 10.2% for the month of January, but since then both have meaningfully underperformed equities.  Gold at least has maintained its January gains and is up 7.8% YTD, however silver has given it all back and then some as it is currently down (1.7%) YTD to a last sale of $15.66.  Silver is now at a critical inflection point as today’s intraday low, $15.62, is nearly equal to the YTD closing low of $15.60, and the December 2016 intraday low of $15.63.  Over the last 12-months this has proven to be a clearly defined support line which now is being tested for the four consecutive days with little bounce.  Downside momentum is already extended with the daily RSI now at 27 which indicates over the near term sellers may not yet be ready to break through and hold price down below the $15.60 support.  This week’s close will be important given tomorrow’s FOMC announcement, the weekly candlestick pattern, and whether or not the $15.60 support can hold firm.  Despite the holidays, seasonality trends are unfavorable for December with silver now on pace to finish the month in Santa Claus red in seven of the prior ten years.  Conversely January has finished in the green in seven of the prior ten years.  The adage “know your time frame” is the important silver lining. 

 

Nasdaq's Market Intelligence Desk (MID) Team includes: 

Michael Sokoll, CFA is a Senior Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq with over 25 years of equity market experience. In this role, he manages a team of professionals responsible for providing NASDAQ-listed companies with real-time trading analysis and objective market information.

Jeffrey LaRocque is a Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq, covering U.S. equities with over 10 years of experience having learned market structure while working on institutional trading desks and as a stock surveillance analyst. Jeff's diverse professional knowledge includes IPOs, Technical Analysis and Options Trading.

Steven Brown is a Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq with over twenty years of experience in equities. With a focus on client retention he currently covers the Financial, Energy and Media sectors.

Christopher Dearborn is a Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq. Chris has over two decades of equity market experience including floor and screen based trading, corporate access, IPOs and asset allocation. Chris is responsible for providing timely, accurate and objective market and trading-related information to Nasdaq-listed companies.

Brian Joyce, CMT has 16 years of trading desk experience. Prior to joining Nasdaq Brian executed equity orders and provided trading ideas to institutional clients. He also contributed technical analysis to a fundamental research offering. Brian focuses on helping Nasdaq’s Financial, Healthcare and Airline companies among others understand the trading in their stock. Brian is a Chartered Market Technician.

This article is from Nasdaq and is being posted with Nasdaq’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Nasdaq and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


15682




Futures

Midday Market Minute: eMinis, Crude Oil and Pressure on Gold Prices


Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

This video is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with iBlue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this video are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


15684




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Declaraciones

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