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Cboe - Whats Trading: Macy's Earnings


Peter Lusk, Cboe Senior Instructor, discusses Macy’s and their stock.

Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, a person must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Copies are available from your broker, or at www.theocc.com. The information in this program is provided solely for general education and information purposes. No statement within the program should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell a security or to provide investment advice. The opinions expressed in this program are solely the opinions of the participants, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Cboe or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates. You agree that under no circumstances will Cboe or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers, trading permit holders, employees, and agents, be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on information obtained from the program.

Copyright © 2018 Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated.   All rights reserved.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Cboe and is being posted with Cboe’s permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Cboe and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


19762




Macro

Interactive Brokers - Retail Sector Shows Signs of Strength as Home Depot Stages a Stellar Earnings Rebound


Home Depot (HD) topped analysts’ earnings and revenues expectations in the second quarter of 2018, indicating solid strength for the housing and retail sectors

HD posted US$30.5bn in sales in Q2’18, up 8.4% year-on-year, with net earnings of US$3.5bn, or US$3.05 per share, outpacing the same year-ago quarter by US$800m, or an EPS rise of roughly 35.6%.

Analysts had generally said poor weather, erratic housing data and consumer spending patterns likely led to giant home improvement retailer’s miss on the sales front in the first quarter, while others think the company’s target may have simply been too aggressive.

On the back of the financial upswing, and based on its year-to-date performance, HD updated its fiscal 2018 sales growth guidance. The firm now expects sales will be up around 7%, including the 53rd week, with comp sales growth of about 5.3% for the comparable 52-week period.

The company also raised its diluted EPS growth guidance for the year, now expecting an uptick of around 29.2% from fiscal 2017 to US$9.42, including US$6bn of share repurchases for the current fiscal year.

While HD’s stock had risen about 2% in early morning trading Tuesday, it was down about 0.2% by late afternoon. However, its bonds generally continued to tighten, with an aggregate OAS of around 2bps tighter on the day to 71bps. The spread on HD’s 2.8% September 2027s last narrowed by roughly 2bps to 63bps more than matched-maturity U.S. government bonds, while its 4.4% March 2045s were about 3bps tighter at an OAS of 110bps, according to Bloomberg.

Overall, the retail sector’s equity performance has been on a bullish tear.

Strategists at MKM Partners observed SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) recently broke out from a bullish Cup and Handle pattern and set a new high in front of earnings.

XRT was last quoted up nearly 2% intraday Tuesday to around US$51.72.

Meanwhile, investors will receive fresh retail sales figures Wednesday, after the June report showed significant upward revisions to May, signaling renewed life in consumer spending in the second quarter after lackluster activity in Q1’18.

The data may also bode well for other retailers, including Macy’s (M) and Walmart (WMT), who are set to release their earnings results on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, even as the two traditional brick-and-mortar firms continue to compete with internet titans such as Amazon (AMZN).

Analysts generally expect M and WMT to report EPS of US$0.51 and US$1.22 in Q2’18, respectively, both up from the same year-ago period.

While awaiting the data and earnings releases, select the Event Calendar option in the IBKR Trader Workstation for a full list of U.S. and global corporate events, including earnings, dividend schedules, IPOs and upcoming economic data.

 

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The analysis in this material is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


19763




Macro

Senteio - How to Use Web Search Trends In Your Fundamental Research Workflow: Beat or Miss?


Note: The content of this post references an opinion and is for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice.

Alternative data is a hot topic these days. From buzz around satellite imagery data to social chatter, there is a deluge of data out there. How can you make use of it, though?

Let’s walk through an example with Sodastream ($SODA). We used Sentieo to plot global web search trends for the “sodastream” keyword (dark blue) against the $SODA stock price (light blue).

 

View Interactive Chart

 

The correlation is great, but we don’t suggest that you buy a stock just because alternative data is going up. You should instead use this data as another pillar of a comprehensive investment process. Ask yourself: how does alternative data tie back to the fundamentals of a business?

As consumers, we tend to search for products online before purchasing. In most cases, searching Sodastream signifies interest in the brand or an intent to purchase – let’s call this “digital traffic.” Some percentage of that “traffic” will convert to true revenue as the consumer makes an purchase online or in-store at a later point.

So while search trends will most closely tie to digital traffic, we hope it can be a meaningful indicator for overall Revenue (or other top-line key performance indicators). As we can see from the chart below, that seemed to be the case here. Search trends had a 0.9 r-squared with $SODA’s revenue growth.

 

View Interactive Chart

This example is just one way that search trends can help you in your fundamental research. Stay tuned for the upcoming posts in this blog series on alternative data search trends.

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To learn more about the companies, industries, and regions where crypto and other themes are being most discussed, download the full report, which covers this sector and many more. To find out more about how to run your own sentiment analysis with Sentieo, sign up here for a free trial.

Sentieo organizes the world’s financial information to make you and your team more productive in your fundamental research workflow. We process millions of documents to deliver crucial information in seconds with advanced linguistic search algorithms; organize and centralize your research processes with our notebook and research management system; integrate into your workflow with collaboration in mind; help you build models faster from source documents with zero data entry using our table extraction tools; and allow you to find new information from the same datasets and add new alternative datasets to your arsenal. With Sentieo, spend less time gathering and organizing information and more time generating alpha.

This material is from Sentieo and is being posted with Sentieo’s permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Sentieo and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


19761




Macro

GUOSEN Closing Bell (August 15)


MARKET

Chinese equities tanked, while China’s yuan fell to the lowest since May. Investors’ risk tolerance continued to be tested by recent Turkey’s disorder. No sector gained, while Construction Material and Healthcare sectors led the falls. Combined turnover for both markets was CNY 277.7 bn, up 3.54% dod.

 

 

Close

% Change

Vol (bn CNY)

%YTD

Shanghai

2723.26

-2.07

118.71

-17.66

Shenzhen

8581.18

-2.32

159.32

-22.28

CSI 300

3291.98

-2.40

83.40

-18.33

ChiNext

1478.51

-2.63

48.90

-15.64

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

 

 

 

 

Downward-leading

Construction Material

000795

Healthcare

600867

 

NEWS

*China Is Said to Freeze Game Approvals Amid Agency Shakeup. China’s regulators have frozen approval of game licenses amid a government shake-up, according to people familiar with the matter, throwing the world’s biggest gaming market into disarray. (Bloomberg)

*Ex-Baidu President Named CEO of Y Combinator China. Lu Qi, who left his position as president and chief operating officer of Chinese search engine giant Baidu Inc. in July, has become CEO of the seed accelerator Y Combinator’s China operations, Lu announced on Wednesday, when the American firm began operating in China in its first overseas expansion. (Caixin)

 

FUND FLOW

Click here for more information about Guosen.

This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


19768




Macro

Eurex: Turkey Continues To Dominate Sentiment


Morning Briefing August 15th 2018


Wednesday throws up a heavy data day, although largely loaded towards the US.

The calendar starts in the UK at 0830GMT, when the July consumer price index data is released. For the month of June, inflation surprised to the downside growing by 2.4% y/y. Analyst expect inflation growth of 2.5% in July and core inflation to remain at 1.9%. Producer input prices are expected to rise a touch from 10.2% y/y to 10.3%. Producer output prices y/y are expected to fall slightly from 3.1% y/y to 3.0%.

Moving Stateside and a triple release of data comes out at 1230GMT. These are retail sales, preliminary non-farm productivity and The Empire State manufacturing survey.

Retail sales are forecast to rise by 0.1% in July after a 0.5% gain in June and a 1.3% jump in May. Not seasonally adjusted industry motor vehicle sales slowed a bit in July, while AAA reported that gasoline prices halted their sharp gains, falling in mid-July from one month earlier, the latter reflected in a decline in CPI gasoline prices. Retail sales are expected to rise 0.4% excluding motor vehicles after a 0.4% rise in June, while analysts see the core measures breaking out of the recent trend of solid gains. If the data are in line with expectations, it suggests continued sales growth, but at a much slower pace than in the second quarter.

Nonfarm productivity is expected to rise 2.5% in the second quarter after modest gains in the previous two quarter, lifted by the much stronger output data in the GDP report. Unit labour cost growth is expected fall by 0.5% from 2.9% in the first quarter.

The Empire State index is expected to fall to a reading of 19.0 in August after falling to 22.6 in July.

Industrial production in the US (1315GMT) is expected to rise 0.3% in July after a rebound in June. Factory payrolls rose by 37,000 in June, while auto production jobs rose by 6,000 and the factory workweek was unchanged at 40.9 hours. The ISM production index fell to 58.5 in the current month from 62.3 in the previous month. Utilities production is expected to continue its downward trend in the month , while mining production is forecast to post a sixth straight gain. Capacity utilization is forecast to rise slightly to 78.2% from 78.0% in June.

Business inventories (1400GMT) are expected to rise 0.1% in June. Factory inventories were already reported up 0.1% in the month, while wholesale inventories rose 0.1%. The advance report showed a flat reading for retail inventories. Taken together, an MNI calculation looks for a 0.1% increase for business inventories, so the median forecast suggests analysts see no revision to retail inventories.

At 1600GMT, BBK Board member Johannes Beermann speaks in Dusseldorf, Germany.

Global Economic Trading Calendar


Markets


GOLD: The gold price downtrend is accelerating with the December 2016 low not firmly in the bears' crosshairs. - The downtrend is very well established and shows no sign of ending, with a break of the 21-DMA needed to mount a recovery. - Gold's drop marks a recoupling of the metal with its historical drivers of US real yields and the broad commodity complex, and both of these still point to further losses.

OIL: Oil prices are coming under pressure from the renewed strength in the dollar, with Brent trading at $72.28 and WTI at $66.80. - WTI is increasingly at risk of making a bearish break through uptrend support, which it is currently testing. Such a break would likely be felt by the other oil benchmarks and could shift the outlook distinctly lower.

STOCKS: Asian stocks are showing serious declined today with the Hang Seng dropping 1.6% to new cycle lows and mainland stocks shedding similar amounts as their downtrend resumes. All sectors on the Shanghai Composite and HSI are in the red. - The Nikkei is also under pressure, dropping 0.7% as a confluence of resistance at the 55 and 200-DMAs remains firmly intact keeping the focus lower. - The ASX200 is finding some support from continued AUD weakness, up 0.1% on the day and testing its multi-year high of 6313.60. - US futures are also being sold with the Dow down 49 points and the S&P down 4.75.

JGBS: JGB futures are trading at their daily highs with the 10-year building on its gains at the open to trade at 150.34. Monday's highs at 150.40 and the 21-DMA at 150.42 are firmly in the bulls' sights, and a close above here would threaten to turn resume the bullish trend. - The significant rise in real yields seen over the past month is providing support to bonds, which look attractive from a valuation perspective relative to European counterparts, particularly as Italy-Germany spreads threaten to widen. - The Japan-US 10-year yield spread remains broadly flat at 278bps.

AUSSIE BONDS: Aussie bond futures are rallying with the 10-year note threatening to break above Monday's high, rising 0.4bps from yesterdays low to trade at 97.43. The 3-year has already pushed above resistance at 79.98 as its rally continues. - Bond strength is coming in spite of the rally in Aussie stocks, with the ASX200 testing multi-year highs at 6310.2. - The AU-US 10-year spread trades at -32.1bps, testing its July 30 low. - The AU-US 10-year real yield spread has also fallen back to -8.9bps, helping to keep the AUD under pressure.

US TSYS: Tsys are on the front foot, supported by renewed declines in Chinese stocks. The 10-year note has held intraday neckline support and is threatening to resume its bullish trend. This comes as USDJPY remains above yesterday's highs, with the two markets continuing to decouple. - The long end of the curve has resumed its steepening trend with the 30-year continuing to underperform. 5s-30s has risen 0.3bps to 29.66bps. - 2-year yields have been rejected at resistance at the 21-DMA. - T-note future trades at 120-05 - Yields: 2Y: 2.629%, 5Y: 2.760%, 10Y: 2.890%, 30Y: 3.058%.

US TSY/RECAP: Tsys traded lower across the board in US trading as stability returned to EM FX, with curves slightly flatter. The long end crossed into the green in the morning until equities climbed higher bringing Tsy back to lower levels. - 10-year yields have bounced off uptrend support from their May 30 lows. 2-year yields are retesting their 21-DMA and threatening to erase the entire down move seen last Friday. - 2s-10s sits at 25.7bps, just above the July 20 multi-year lows. - T-note future trades at 120-01+ - Yields: 2Y: 2.637%, 5Y: 2.772%, 10Y: 2.899%, 30Y: 3.067%.

Technical Analysis


BUND TECHS: (U18) Correction Ltd, Keeps Uptrend Intact

The pullback from Monday’s peak has remained corrective, although initial support at the 163.15 level has been slightly breached. The 38.2% retracement level of the recent rally intervenes at 162.99, providing additional support, ahead of the more pivotal support at 162.39. Overall, the recovery trend remains intact and momentum indicators are still positive. The ability to hold above 162.99 will keep the focus on Monday’s 163.62 peak with a further break above here opening the way towards major resistance at the May 29 high of 164.19

EUROSTOXX50: Channel Support Still Targeted

Eurex Exchange and MNI are both part of the Deutsche Börse Group

Eurex. An exchange for the better.

As one of the world’s leading derivatives exchanges we offer a broad range of international benchmark products.

For example, we operate one of the most liquid fixed income markets, provide the broadest range of equity index derivatives worldwide and are the platform of choice for European equity derivatives. In addition we cover derivatives on dividends, volatility and ETFs. All on one single platform.

Innovative and reliable technology supplies about 400 participants and 7,500 traders in 35 countries with access to more than 2,000 products across nine traditional and alternative asset classes.

For further information please visit www.eurexchange.com

MNI

MNI subscribers make critical decisions with deeper insight and greater confidence. Pinpoint information and market-moving interviews let them react instantly to market changes and more importantly, anticipate future market moves. MNI reporters are market professionals in the news business. They work like journalists but think like traders. When interviewing Fed officials, our reporters ask the same questions you would ask. They cover the angles you would cover. Write the way you read.

MNI’s news services are now available via the IB Trader platform. Please click here to view our provider page or contact MNI directly on sales@mni-news.com or +1 212 669 6400 for our Americas sales team and +44 207 862 7408 for our EMEA sales team.

This article is from Eurex Exchange and is being posted with Eurex Exchange’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Eurex Exchange and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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