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2015-04-24 16:21:27

Posted by
Kevin Kastner
Washington Deputy Bureau Chief for Economic Data Operations
MNI News
Contributor
Macro

MNI US Data Watch

The April 27 week marks the return to a normal flow of data after the quiet April 20 week. The key data for the week will be the first look at first quarter GDP as well as the monthly ISM manufacturing and vehicle sales data, but even those data will be overshadowed by the FOMC announcement Wednesday. Data on consumer confidence, personal income, employment costs, and construction spending round out the week. The monthly employment report will be released May 8.

Here is a closer look at the key data in the coming week:

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE FOR APRIL, TUESDAY, APRIL 28 AT 10:00 A.M. ET

The Conference Board's index of consumer confidence is expected to rise to a reading of 102.8 in April after rising to 101.3 in March. The Michigan Sentiment index rose to a reading of 95.9 in early-April.

ADVANCE ESTIMATE OF GDP FOR FIRST QUARTER, WEDNESDAY, APRIL 29 AT 8:30 A.M. ET

First quarter GDP is expected to drop to 1.0% for the advance estimate from the 2.2% growth rate in the previous quarter, with the key factor being very weak consumption compared to the end of 2014. The chain price index is forecast to increase to 0.5% following the modest 0.1% rise in fourth quarter.

WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS FOR APRIL 25 WEEK, THURSDAY, APRIL 30 AT 8:30 A.M. ET

The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall by 5,000 to 290,000 in the April 25 week after a 1,000 gain in the previous week. The four-week moving average rose by 1,750 to 284,500 in the April 18 week, the second consecutive weekly gain. The March 28 week’s 267,000 level will roll off the four-week average calculation as the current week's is added, which would result in a gain of roughly 6,000 in the moving average if the MNI forecast is realized, all else being equal.

Seasonal adjustment factors expect unadjusted claims to post a very modest rise in the April 25 week after a 28,102 drop in the previous week. In the comparable week a year ago, unadjusted claim rose by 18,945, a larger gain than expected, so unadjusted claims rose by 7,000 that week.

PERSONAL INCOME AND PCE FOR MARCH, THURSDAY, APRIL 30 AT 8:30 A.M. ET

Personal income is expected to slow to 0.2% in March, as payrolls rose only 126,000, hourly earnings were up 0.3%, and the average workweek fell 0.1 hours to 34.5 hours. Nominal PCE is seen climbing to 0.5%, as retail sales rose 0.9% and were still up 0.4% excluding motor vehicle sales. The core PCE price index is seen up 0.2% after a 0.1% rise in February.

EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX FOR FIRST QUARTER, THURSDAY, APRIL 30 AT 8:30 A.M. ET

The Employment Cost Index is expected to increase 0.7% in the first quarter after a 0.6% rise in fourth quarter.

MNI CHICAGO REPORT FOR APRIL, THURSDAY, APRIL 30 AT 9:45 A.M. ET

The MNI Chicago report's business barometer is expected to increase to a reading of 49.0 in April after rising slightly to 46.3 in March. Other regional data already released have been mixed.

DOMESTIC-MADE VEHICLE SALES FOR APRIL, FRIDAY, MAY 1

The pace of domestic-made vehicle sales is expected to stay steady at a 13.4 million seasonally adjusted annual rate in April after rising in March.

ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX FOR APRIL, WEDNESDAY, APRIL 1, AT 10:00 A.M. ET

The ISM manufacturing index is expected to increase to a reading of 52.0 in April after a fifth straight decline in March. Regional conditions were mixed in the month, based on the already released data. The Empire State region reported that activity contracted in the month, while the Philadelphia Fed index improved modestly.

Over the last 20 years, analysts have overestimated manufacturing ISM in April 10 times, with an average miss of 1.13 and underestimated it 10 times by a 1.25 average. The overall absolute average miss was 1.19, much smaller than 1.44 in March. When sign is considered, the average miss was -0.06 due to the larger size of underestimates. Looking at the most recent 10 years, there is a clear tendency to miss to the low side. There have been seven underestimates in the last 10 years, including three of the last four years, suggesting that a larger-than-expected reading this month is a real possibility. Over the 10 year period, the absolute average miss was 1.15, smaller than the 1.23 average in March.

FINAL MICHIGAN SENTIMENT FOR APRIL, FRIDAY, MAY 1, AT 10:00 A.M. ET

The University of Michigan Sentiment Index is expected to be revised down slightly to a reading of 95.8 in April from the 95.9 preliminary estimate, and compared to the 93.0 final reading in March.

CONSTRUCTION SPENDING FOR MARCH, FRIDAY, MAY 1 AT 10:00 A.M. ET

March construction spending is expected to increase 0.2% after declines in the previous two months. Housing starts partially rebounded in the month, suggesting that private residential construction recovered in the month after a 0.2% decline in the previous month.

 

MNI is a wholly owned subsidiary of Deutsche Börse Group.

This article is from Market News International (MNI) and is being posted with MNI’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or MNI and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

2015-04-24 14:26:28

Posted by
Steven Levine
Fixed Income Reporter
MNI News
Contributor
Fixed Income

MNI's U.S. Risk-O-Meter

New sales of investment-grade bonds soared this past week, underscored by AT&T, Inc.’s mammoth $17.5 billion, six-part bond. Credit quality was about on par with the prior week, with a deal for all levels of risk appetite. Average deal size rose to $1.38 billion from $1.0 billion week-over-week, with large-sized offerings from the Financials sector comprising the bulk of the supply balance. These deals included a $5 billion, three-part bond from Citigroup, Inc., $2.0 billion, single tranche issuance from Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo & Co., and a $3.0 billion two-part bond from Credit Suisse – New York. Also, several supranational/foreign agencies crossed the tapes, including Germany’s KfW, the Asian Development Bank and the Africa Finance Corp.

 

Keep pace with the latest corporate news with MNI's US Risk-O-Meter, a weekly recap of credit risk appetite!
For more information and a full version of the US Risk-O-Meter, email Steven Levine at slevine@mni-news.com.   Click here for more about MNI.

 

This article is from Market News International (MNI) and is being posted with MNI’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or MNI and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

2015-04-24 13:44:08

Posted by
Jeffrey Rosenberg, CFA
Managing Director
Chief Investment Strategist for Fixed Income
BlackRock
Contributor
Macro

Why the U.S. Economy May Be Stronger Than You Think

Worried about the state of the economy after a string of soft data? Jeff Rosenberg explains why things are likely to get better.

 

Don’t count out the U.S economy just yet.

While it’s true that economic performance in the U.S. broadly disappointed in the first quarter — with the exception of jobs data —  temporary factors such as colder than seasonally anticipated weather, as well as the West Coast ports shutdown and the collapse in oil-related investments presented one-off events that temporarily depressed output in the quarter.

But this pattern of weak first-quarter data has been the case for most of the past five years, as shown below. Average gross domestic product (GDP) has come in at just 0.6% in the first quarter from 2010 to 2014, substantially lower than in other quarters. (2015 first-quarter GDP will be unveiled on April 29.)

So, lower bond yields in March and April have come in an environment of steadily disappointing economic data. And, in that environment, the Federal Reserve’s more dovish communication furthered expectations for a more benign interest rate environment.

However, investors should be careful not to read too much into these latest developments.

Despite seasonal adjustments, the U.S. economy has still exhibited surprisingly strong seasonality since the financial crisis. The chart plots the Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index — an index that reacts positively when economic data surprise above economist forecasts and negatively when data surprise below.

There’s a distinct and sharp downward trend at the beginning of almost every year since 2011, only to hit a trough in June and accelerate to a peak by the end of the year. In addition to economic surprises (relative to forecasts), realized first-quarter GDP has noticeably underperformed other quarters since the financial crisis, for various reasons.

The most recent evidence of the first quarter seasonal weakness came in the form of disappointing March retail sales numbers, which not only missed consensus estimates but also included downward revisions to prior months’ readings.

However, the chart also highlights the trend for second-half recoveries in growth. Notwithstanding these seasonal characteristics, the ongoing improvements in labor markets fueling rising incomes, falling oil prices boosting disposable income growth globally, and the rising confidence of business for capital expenditures and investments all point to a recovery in growth in the second half.

As the first quarter data fade in the rear view mirror, we still continue to expect eventual better economic numbers to meet the conditions the Fed laid out for raising rates: continued improvements in the labor market along with reasonable confidence of inflation returning to target over the “medium term”.

 

Jeffrey Rosenberg, Managing Director, is BlackRock’s Chief Investment Strategist for Fixed Income, and a regular contributor to The Blog. You can find more of his posts here.

 

This article is from BlackRock and is being posted with BlackRock’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or BlackRock and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

2015-04-24 10:46:19

Posted by
Andrew Wilkinson
Chief Market Analyst
Interactive Brokers
Contributor
Forex

The Strong Dollar is Bad News for Gold

In his latest webinar in conjunction with the Nasdaq, FXTraderProfessional.com's Bryan Rich gave a great explanation of why the ongoing rally in the dollar may prove bad news for the price of gold. Bryan named the bid for the precious metal during each wave of the financial crisis as “the fear of everything trade”. Investors, failing to understand what the Federal Reserve was doing as it orchestrated wave-after-wave of quantitative easing (QE), sought solace in the safe haven in gold. Investors feared the collapse of the United States, the fear of Fed monetization by printing its way out of debt, predicted gold at $5,000 and even $10,000 an ounce. “Gold’s value was amplified by a very poor understanding of what the Fed was doing”, said Bryan.

As it further developed each round of QE, the media and investors depicted then-chairman of the Fed, Ben Bernanke, as tossing money from a helicopter to help spur the economy. Bryan explained, using the velocity of money, why investors were blindsided by the Fed’s intentions as QE failed to hit the spot in boosting demand. If the logic behind demand for gold has dissipated, perhaps the price of gold might fall back to its pre-crisis level he suggested. And gold’s correlation with sensitive commodity currencies appears to be weighing down the performance of the Aussie dollar. The Australian central bank recently turned its policy looser in response to low inflationary prospects putting the commodity-dollar in the crosshairs of a possibly firmer monetary stance at the FOMC.

Click the following link to view Bryan’s webinar The Strong Dollar is Bad News for Gold.

Chart – Money supply weakened throughout waves of QE at the Fed

2015-04-24 09:35:49

Posted by
Andrew Wilkinson
Chief Market Analyst
Interactive Brokers
Contributor
Macro

Durable goods orders slide again

Investors were treated to another “woe-is-me” reading for the industrial side of the economy on Friday. Orders for longer-lasting goods tumbled broadly in March, with the exception of aircraft and vehicles. But beyond a transport-driven surge of 4.0% in the headline reading for new orders, demand fell by 0.2% and was softer than anticipated by the consensus polled by Bloomberg ahead of the event. Transport orders rose by $10 billion reflecting gains for defense-related items and aircraft orders, a series notorious for its volatility. Demand for autos and parts also advanced at a healthy pace. But core orders fell by 0.2% to $159.9 billion reflecting weaker demand for primary and fabricated metals along with further disappointment for the machinery sector. There, orders fell by 1.5% to $33.4 billion having reached $38.3 billion nine-months ago. Orders for computers and electronic equipment, which is the smallest among the durables components, managed to gain. Adding to the painful reflection of economic health is the fact that the core ex-transports reading for February was revised lower. A prior decline of 1.4% was beaten back to a loss of 2.2%. Elsewhere, looking at the capital goods nondefense, ex-aircrafts measure, orders slid by 0.5% and is a much poorer view when considering a gain of 0.3% was expected. Shipments, which is the reading used to measure growth, was revised lower in February to a minimal gain of 0.1% and bucked a forecast gain in March only to slide by 0.4%.

Chart – Machinery goods are 13% weaker than at last summer’s peak measure

 

2015-04-24 09:18:41

Posted by
John Carter
President
Simpler Stocks
Contributor
Stocks

Simpler Stocks: Thursday Movers

Wall Street rose yet again on Thursday, but the key chart topper was the NASDAQ, which closed at its highest level in 15 years. Manufacturing data, which came in below expectations, did little to dent investor enthusiasm. The key drivers for the tech sector included MSFT and EBAY. 

Dunkin’ Brands Group Inc. (Ticker: DNKN)

Shares of the iconic donut maker were up 8% on the day after the company posted 21% gains in earnings per share year-over-year to $0.40 – that’s including the impact of a tough winter, weather-wise. Net income was a full nickel above consensus. Revenue, at $185 million, was $5 million better than the Street estimate. Same store sales growth is accelerating to nearly 3% and up from 1% last year.  Guidance for sales growth was nudged up to 6-8%, better than management’s previous 5% projection. The sales growth and estimates going forward are likely to be nudged up, which would make the 23x forward estimates ratio come down as well. 

F5 Networks Inc. (Ticker: FFIV)

Despite an earnings beat, revenue guidance proved a bit soft. The guide may prove conservative given a continued network upgrade cycle. Indeed, Needham upgraded the stock from hold to buy post results. The shares gained some ground on news that FFIV is also replacing its longtime CEO, a move the Street cheered. The stock trades at 17x forward estimates and has an impressive ROE above 23%.   

Omnicom Group (Ticker: OMC)

Omnicom, which gets roughly half of its top line from outside the US, said a strong dollar will continue to hurt results. But organic growth will be decent going forward, at about 3.5%, and net income rose despite the currency headwinds. Earnings of $0.83 a share were a penny above the Street. Dividend yield is above 2%.

Polycom Inc. (Ticker: PLCM)

Operating performance continues to get better as the integrated communications company beat Street estimates by three cents. The $331 million in sales was just short of expectations, but coming off a loss last year, expenses have been right-sized. The cash-adjusted forward PE ratio is 11x, while the stock trades at a beta of just about 1x. Shares have just crossed the 50-day moving average, which indicates some support at current levels.

Cree, Inc. (Ticker: CREE)

Despite missing another quarter – and with shares down another 8% in sympathy – CREE is getting cheap enough to attract some value players. The market cap is roughly 15% in net cash, which brings the forward PE to about 22x vs. estimates of 23% growth.    

Arris Group Inc. (Ticker: ARRS)

Shares soared 20% on news that Arris will buy the UK’s Pace for $2 billion in a deal that will push video services and, by dint of relocation, cut corporate taxes. Tax rates will plummet from 36% to 26%. The combined company, formed through what is known as tax inversion, would have a top line of about $8 billion. Even with the jump, ARRS trades at 11x forward estimates, a PEG ratio of less than 1x and P/S of less than 1x.

 

About the author: John Carter has been a full time trader for 15 years, serving over 100,000 subscribers in over 100 countries.  For more analysis on high growth stocks visit www.SimplerStocks.com.

 

This article is from Simpler Stocks and is being posted with Simpler Stocks’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Simpler Stocks and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

2015-04-23 23:54:07

Posted by
Darren Chu, CFA
Founder
Tradable Patterns
Contributor
Technical Analysis

Raw Sugar (SB) Bounces Off Upchannel Support on Daily Chart

SB surged to the upside yesterday, bouncing off an upchannel support line (on the daily chart) and firmly reclaiming the downchannel support line (in the weekly chart).  Weekly, daily and 4hr RSI, Stochastics and MACD are either rallying or consolidating.  The next upside target of note is the April high.

 

Raw Sugar (ICE SB Jul15) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly

Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures, spot FX and equity CFD markets can be traded consistently profitably. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter (blog) provides technical analysis on a subset of ten to twelve CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, interest rates), spot FX and US equity markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

2015-04-23 23:54:02

Posted by
Darren Chu, CFA
Founder
Tradable Patterns
Contributor
Technical Analysis

Cotton (CT) Nearing Downchannel Resistance on Weekly Chart

CT spiked to the upside yesterday, bouncing off horizontal support of just under .63 (as seen by the early April low) and breaking above a downchannel resistance line (on the 4hr chart).  CT is now just shy of downchannel resistance (on the weekly chart) and horizontal resistance at roughly .665 (as seen by the March and April highs).  Weekly, daily and 4hr RSI, Stochastics and MACD are all rallying.

 

Cotton (ICE CT Jul15) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly

Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures, spot FX and equity CFD markets can be traded consistently profitably. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter (blog) provides technical analysis on a subset of ten to twelve CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, interest rates), spot FX and US equity markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 

2015-04-23 23:53:58

Posted by
Darren Chu, CFA
Founder
Tradable Patterns
Contributor
Technical Analysis

USDX (DX) Testing Uptrend Support on Weekly Chart

 

The DX is on the precipice of a major downturn if it breaks the uptrend support line (seen on the weekly chart).  It is also sitting precariously on the wedge/triangle support line (on the daily chart), and on a descending triangle support line (on the 4hr chart).  US dollar bulls will try to play a bounce at these support lines, but with the weekly, daily and 4hr RSI, Stochastics and MACD mostly sagging, probabilities favour a break beneath these support lines by early next week.

 

USDX (ICE DX Jun15) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly

Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures, spot FX and equity CFD markets can be traded consistently profitably. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter (blog) provides technical analysis on a subset of ten to twelve CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, interest rates), spot FX and US equity markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

2015-04-23 15:30:52

Posted by
Caitlin Duffy, CFA
Equity Options Analyst
Contributor
Options

Apple options ahead of earnings release

Not surprisingly, Apple options are active ahead of the company’s second-quarter earnings report after the bell on Monday. Shares are in rally mode, up almost 1.1% on the day at $130.06 on Thursday afternoon. Volume as of the time of this writing (3:30 pm ET) is approaching 786,000 contracts, which is approximately 105% of the average daily options volume traded on AAPL of around 750,000 contracts. Much of the volume changing hands during today’s session is in the Apr24 ’15 expiry weekly calls, which expire ahead of the company’s earnings release. But, a review of open interest on Apple reveals interesting patterns. Open interest is largest by far in 130.0 strike call options across all available expiries. There are approximately 505,000 open call positions at the 130.0 strike on Apple at present. Much of that open interest, roughly 20% of it, is in the regular May expiry 130.0 calls.

Chart – Apple put & call open interest

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