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Macro

The Opportunistic Trader - If You Go Down To The Woods Today - The Bears Are Out To Play - By Alan Hill


The week has started with both the euro and pound facing and breaking technical levels which in the case of the common currency had held firm during the whole of 2018.

The euro has been hit by a double whammy of economic and political headwinds. With the EU Commission’s deadline for Rome to present an amended budget for 2019 set to expire tomorrow with the Government seemingly totally committed to a confrontation and weaker data expected from Germany tomorrow and Wednesday, the euro is losing facing a possible fight for survival.

Yes, it could be that serious with Portugal, Spain and, of course, Greece, looking on with interest just how far Brussels is prepared to go to protect the growth and stability pact? If Rome really digs its heels in, could the EU expel Italy from the Eurozone? And would it stop there? Most of Southern Europe loves the Eu but hates the Euro which it blames for its economic woes in the past, a “simple devaluation” would have solved everyone’s problems.

German inflation was at a six-year high last month and although the oil price, one of the main constituents of “EU norm” CPI, has fallen only a small correction is expected. Recent PMI releases in Germany have been disappointing so although the market expects the German GDP data for Q3 to have shrunk by 0.1%, a downside surprise is possible. We are seeing sell the rumour price action in the euro so far today with a real possibility that now the double bottom has been broken that 1.1000 is a genuine target.

Sterling is suffering from Brexit……..again

The latest incarnation of a deal between the UK and EU is being pronounced “dead before arrival” as a leading remain member of Mrs May’s Cabinet resigns, bringing to seven the number of Ministers who have resigned so far with rumours of at least four to follow.

The significance of Jo Johnson’s (yes, he is Boris’s brother) resignation is that he is a staunch remain campaigner, so this means that the Prime Minister is almost certain to be defeated when she presents the agreement to the House of Commons. At that point her entire premiership will be called into question and the time will be ripe for a “palace coup”.

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This material is from The Opportunistic Trader and is being posted with The Opportunistic Trader’s permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or The Opportunistic Trader and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


21469




Macro

Briefing.com - Attempting to Dig Out


The stock market dug itself a hole to start the week, as growth concerns sent each of the major indices down at least 2.0% on Monday.  The widely-held technology stocks were the primary targets for sellers, yet they had ample company. 

There is an effort being made this morning to dig out from the hole.

Currently, the S&P futures are up 10 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value.  The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 40 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 46 points and are trading 2% above fair value.

Dow component Home Depot (HD) is garnering some attribution for the positive bias.  The home improvement retailer put up some impressive third quarter results, which featured a 5.4% increase in U.S. comparable-store sales, and raised its FY18 revenue, EPS, and comparable-store sales guidance.

Shares of HD are up 0.9% in pre-market action.  Advance Auto Parts (AAP) is another retailer that topped third quarter estimates and raised its FY18 guidance.  Its stock is indicated 5.2% higher.

Good vibes from the retail space, then, are making up somewhat for the bad vibes that surrounded the information technology, financial, and energy sectors on Monday.

Another element lending some support today is a report that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu had a recent phone conversation geared toward trying to ease the trade tension between the U.S. and China heading into the G20 meeting at the end of the month.

That news, however, should be interpreted with a grain of salt for several reasons: (1) it isn't a surprise that back-channel conversations were happening (2) it has been previously reported that the two sides would be aiming to lower the temperature on their trade dispute going into the meeting and (3) everyone should be aware by now that words have typically spoken louder than action in the bid to resolve the trade disagreement.

Separately, we would hasten to point out that there are separate reports suggesting President Trump will be meeting with his advisors today to discuss whether to impose a 25% tariff on autos and there is a tweet from the president this morning that is critical of the tariffs France places on wine imports.

In other words, the kumbaya trade moment everyone is hoping for hasn't arrived yet.

It doesn't appear either that a bottom has arrived yet for Apple (AAPL).  It is down 1.1% in pre-market trading after Goldman Sachs cut its earnings estimates and lowered its price target to $209 from $222 following Monday's warning from supplier Lumentum (LITE).

Apple's weakness remains a weight on the broader market.  In the same vein, so does the continued weakness in oil prices ($59.05, -$0.89, -1.5%), which have fallen for 11 straight sessions.  That weakness is pressuring the energy sector, as it is leading to questions about earnings prospects.

The latter has been at the heart of the matter for the stock market's recent struggles.  Earnings prospects in general are being called into question as interest rates have risen, the dollar has strengthened, input costs have increased, and global economies have slowed.

--Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com

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This material is from Briefing.com and is being posted with Briefing.com's permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Briefing.com and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


21463




Macro

Eurex: U.S.-China Trade Talks Scheduled


Morning Briefing November 13th 2018

Three key releases for the Tuesday are the September UK labour report at 0930GMT, the November German ZEW index at 1000GMT and Japan's Q3 GDP at 2350GMT.

ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet speaks in London at 0800GMT.

The UK labour report for September anticipates unemployment holding steady at 4.0% and core earnings remaining at August's 3.1% 3M Y/Y. However, a jump in headline earnings to 3.0% 3M Y/Y from 2.7% previously is expected, according to the MNI median and appears to be down to base effects.

Given median estimates for Germany GDP (out Wednesday) are for negative growth, the ZEW becomes even more important. The October reading for current expectations was -24.7 and the MNI median points to a fledgling value of -26.8 in November.

BBK Board member Joachim Wuermeling participating in a discussion on banking supervision in Frankfurt, starting at 1445GMT. Fifteen minutes later, speaking in Minneapolis and Philadelphia respectively, are Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari and Lael Brainard.

ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos speaks in Frankfurt at 1900GMT.

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker speaks in Philadelphia on Fintech at 1920GMT.

Concluding the speeches is San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly in Boise, Idaho at 2200GMT.

Q3 GDP growth in Japan is also expected to be negative. After growing by 0.7% in Q2, the MNI median is for a decline of 0.2% in Q3.

Global Economic Trading Calendar

Markets

US TSYS: T-Notes moved sharply lower on the back of SCMP headlines re: China's top trade envoy travelling to the U.S., with the long end underperforming in cash trade, allowing some modest flattening to occur. The early part of session saw T-Notes tick above Monday's high before touted official intervention in USD/CNY via state owned banks limited broader risk off flows. - Since then, U.S. index futures moved away from lows, with risk appetite picking up on the back of the aforementioned SCMP headline.

JGBS: Futures have moved sharply lower since the re-open, on the back of the broader risk-on flows stemming from the SCMP headline re: the top Chinese trade envoy visiting the U.S, with the lead contract erasing all of the overnight & early session gains, to trade 2 ticks softer on the day at writing. The Nikkei 225 has unwound a chunk of its losses, but still trades 2.2% weaker. Cash trade has seen the longer end continue to outperform, with yields holding lower, even as yields to 10-Years move into positive territory on the session. - This was aided by the latest 30-Year JGB auction, which saw the cover ratio hold up & the price tail hold relatively steady.

AUSSIE BONDS: Aussie Bond futures have moved lower, in sympathy with broader risk-on flows stemming from the SCMP headline re: the top Chinese trade envoy visiting the U.S. - Up until then it had been a fairly limited session for the space, as Bond futures operated around the early session highs. - Aussie paper has underperformed Tsys on the move, with the AU/U.S. 10-Year yield spread at ~-43.8bp, while the domestic 3-/10-Year cash yield differential trades ~1.2bp steeper at 63.3bp last. - The white and red Bill contracts trade 1 tick lower to 1 tick higher.

STOCKS: A SCMP headline re: the top Chinese trade envoy visiting the U.S to open the way for the much-anticipated meeting between Trump & Xi, as well as touted intervention in USD/CNY to quell the CNY's slide reversed a chunk of the early risk off flows that were apparent in Asia-Pacific trade. - That being said, the Nikkei 255 still trades 2.5% lower, with Apple linked names struggling on the back of worries surrounding the tech giants outlook. - Elsewhere, The CSI 300 moved into marginal positive territory, although the Hang Seng continued to trade lower, last -0.2%, as the aforementioned worries re: the tech space limited the index. - The ASX 200 shed 1.6%, with the heavyweight energy, material and financial sectors near the bottom of the pile. - U.S. index futures moved higher on the aforementioned headlines, erasing their early losses and more.

OIL: WTI & Brent trade $0.90 & $0.70 below settlement levels at writing after broader risk aversion pushed crude lower in post-settlement trade on Monday, although the benchmarks have managed to trade off of worst levels overnight as warmer rhetoric surrounding U.S. & Chinese trade matters alleviated at least some of the pressure in Asia-Pacific trade.

GOLD: Gold drew support from the $1200/oz level overnight, with U.S. yields lower on the day. - Broader risk on flows had little impact on the yellow metal later in the session.

FOREX: A recovery in risk appetite has been the main theme in Asia-Pac dealing after rumours of China's official intervention in USD/CNY via state owned banks to quell the slide in CNY limited broader risk off flows, before positive news re: China-U.S. trade relations flipped sentiment (the SCMP reported that China's top trade envoy is to head to the U.S.). - Familiar EUR & GBP political matters continue to dominate the outlook for the currencies, but the aforementioned newsflow helped traders to look through the impending matters overnight, as they both lodged gains vs. USD. - The Antipodeans garnered strength from the SCMP story, AUD being the best performer among the G10, with AUD/NZD trading at A$1.0694, just off of session highs. CAD benefitted from the risk on flows as well. - JPY underperformed in G10 with USD/JPY breaking above the key Y114.00 level.

Technical Analysis

BUND TECHS: (Z18) FOCUS BACK ON OCT HIGHS

The last two days of gains in Dec-18 Bund futures have recovered almost two weeks of losses, returning the focus back to the October highs. A break above 160.53 would open the Oct 26 high at 160.90, ahead of a potential return to the Aug 17 peak at 161.30. Bears need to break below the 55-dma at 159.33 to re-establish downside momentum and target the Oct 22 low at 158.84.

EUROSTOXX50: 21-DMA GIVES WAY

Eurostoxx50 closed on its lows yesterday, taking out the 21-dma to return the focus to the Oct 26 low at 3090.85. Below here would extend the selloff towards up trendline support from the 2012 low which comes in around 3030. On the upside, bulls need to overcome the Nov 8 high at 3263.73 to trigger an inverse head-and-shoulder pattern targeting the Sep 27 highs, above which the downtrend from the January high would come under threat.

Eurex Futures Market Close

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MNI

MNI subscribers make critical decisions with deeper insight and greater confidence. Pinpoint information and market-moving interviews let them react instantly to market changes and more importantly, anticipate future market moves. MNI reporters are market professionals in the news business. They work like journalists but think like traders. When interviewing Fed officials, our reporters ask the same questions you would ask. They cover the angles you would cover. Write the way you read.

MNI’s news services are now available via the IB Trader platform. Please click here to view our provider page or contact MNI directly on sales@mni-news.com or +1 212 669 6400 for our Americas sales team and +44 207 862 7408 for our EMEA sales team.

This article is from Eurex Exchange and is being posted with Eurex Exchange’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Eurex Exchange and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


21454




Macro

GUOSEN Closing Bell (November 13)


MARKET

China market jumped from opening low, as volatilities grew. Small caps were still the favour of investors and people seemed to find some legitimated ground for those low quality stocks. Media and Food& Beverage sectors led the gains, while no sector fell. Combined turnover for both markets was CNY 455.2bn, up 34.27% dod.

 

 

Close

% Change

Vol (bn CNY)

%YTD

Shanghai

2654.88

0.93

189.61

-19.72

Shenzhen

7963.66

1.68

265.97

-27.87

CSI 300

3237.38

1.01

125.60

-19.69

ChiNext

1392.05

1.70

81.29

-20.57

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

Media

002619

Food& Beverage

002650

Downward-leading

 

 

 

 

 

NEWS

* Shanghai-London Stock Connect expects December rollout. The much-anticipated Shanghai-London Stock Connect scheme is expected to take effect in December with more cooperation between fintech companies, a London official said as reported by 21jingji.com on Tuesday. (China Daily)

 

FUND FLOW

Click here for more information about Guosen.

This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


21456




Macro

BlackRock - Why Valuation Alone Won't Save Equities


After the October selloff, stocks got cheaper. But that might not be enough for a continued rebound, Russ suggests.

The first 29 days of October put markets on track for their worst month since the financial crisis. Then the selling abruptly stopped and buyers rediscovered their animal spirits. Since Monday’s low, global equities have rallied close to 5%, erasing a significant portion of October’s plunge. Even more interesting, there has been no clear catalyst for the rally, leaving some to suggest that stocks were simply too cheap to ignore.

From my perspective, the rally of the last several days looks like a technical bounce, i.e. a short term exhaustion of selling, rather than bargain hunting. To be sure, there are pockets of the market—notably Japan and many emerging markets—that could be described as cheap. But at the broader level, and particularly in the United States, it is difficult to argue that stocks got so cheap buyers simply could not help themselves.

Developed market equities are trading close to their historical average, with the MSCI World Index currently at roughly 14 times forward earnings (see Chart 1). Looking at price-to-book (P/B) suggests the same conclusion. The MSCI World is trading at 2.25 times price-to-book (P/B), right around the long-term average.

Looking at more recent data also suggests that valuations are close to the middle of the range. The P/B on the MSCI World Index is roughly 6% cheaper than was the case in late January. That said, stocks are about 10% pricier than two years ago, just prior to the post-election rally.

The argument that stocks were more attractively priced in the fall of 2016 is supported by the fact that bond yields were also much lower. Right before the 2016 post-election rally, the U.S. 10 year Treasury was yielding approximately 1.80% and German Bund yields had just recently crossed back above 0%. In other words, not only were stocks modestly cheaper on an absolute basis, they were much cheaper once you adjusted for interest rates.

 

Two bullish scenarios

To be fair, none of the above suggests that the near-term bounce won’t continue. Certain segments of the market are trading below their long-term average, and even at the index level stocks are less egregiously priced than was the case in late January. However, not being egregiously priced is not the same as being cheap. With U.S. rates up nearly 150 basis points (bps, or 1.50% points) from the fall of 2016 and the Fed still tightening, it will be harder for multiples to expand from here.

 

So what could provide the necessary boost to sustain the rally?

I can think of two scenarios: rising growth expectations, such as we saw with the stock market rally in late 2016, or modest growth coupled with easier financial conditions, i.e. something closer to the rally during the first half of 2017. In the first instance, expect value and probably financials to lead. The second scenario would arguably be characterized by a return of king tech. In the absence of either, expect more volatility.

Russ Koesterich, CFA, is Portfolio Manager for BlackRock’s Global Allocation team and is a regular contributor to The Blog.

 

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This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date indicated and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this post are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by BlackRock, its officers, employees or agents. This post may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any of these views will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this post is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only. You cannot invest directly in an index.

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USR1118U-649607-2028346

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from BlackRock and is being posted with BlackRock’s permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or BlackRock and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice. 

 


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Disclosures

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