As you’ve surely heard, Amazon is obliterating its competition.
The online retailer has flipped American commerce upside down. By offering products at lower prices, Amazon has captured huge chunks of business from traditional retailers like Sears and JC Penney’s.
As a result, Sears Holdings stock (SHLD) has dropped 86% since 2012… JC Penney stock (JCP) has dropped 81%... meanwhile, Amazon stock (AMZN) has surged 285%.
The “death of retail” narrative is now conventional wisdom. But Tom Thornton, a data-driven analyst who has spent much of his career studying market sentiment, has a contrarian idea: buy Macy’s (M).
Real Vision TV, the network that’s been described as “Ted Talks for finance,” recently discussed this idea with Thornton.
Thornton liked Macy’s as a “short” a few years ago. But at its current (much lower) valuation, he believes Macy’s may be a good deal. This is largely due to its real estate portfolio, which includes extremely valuable property in Chicago and New York City’s Herald Square:
“I'm looking at Macy's right now. A few years ago when it was at $70, it was my favorite short. And it was worth $30 billion at that time. Currently it's worth about $7 billion. They have $6 billion in debt. And they have $15 to $20 billion in real estate”
“But they've also done a lot of the hard work by closing stores over the last year. They have sales of $25 billion. And they make about $600 million a year in earnings…”
As of 11:45AM
Markets are trying rebound this morning after yesterday’s sharp pull-back, the largest since May. Semiconductor (+0.4%) stocks are the best performing group this morning, helped by some positive quarterly results. Gold prices are streaking higher and moving back to its early November highs. Crude Oil has given its initial gains, now lower for the 4th out of the 5 sessions.
Major stocks such as GE (the third largest manufcaturing firm in the US) are not playing the game and have broken down, usually the sign of an impending recession.
About Real Vision Publications
How do you spot a market top? Is risk being mis-priced? What is the greatest macro opportunity of the next decade? All of that and much more in this Killer Chart deck from Real Vision Publications.
Real Vision Publications has leveraged its network of the smartest financial contributors to bring you 26 handpicked charts helping you navigate these financial waters. We get to hear from Peter Brandt, Jesse Felder, SentimenTrader, Tommy Thornton, Raoul Pal, Eric Pomboy, Grant Williams and many more.
We are truly living in unusual times. When the POTUS is spending half his time tweeting about the stock market, something doesn’t add up. Navigating financial markets have never been more precarious and hazardous for your wealth.
Financial markets are a sensory overload of information and noise. How do you separate the wheat from the chaff? Real Vision Publications distills what is relevant and how you can get ahead.
This chart pack will be sure to get you thinking in a whole new direction.
They say a picture speaks 1,000 words, what is a chart worth?
To download all 26 charts for free, click here.
Real Vision Publications delivers highly curated, big thinking and actionable investment research from the world’s top financial minds.
Offering you quality financial research that’s hard to find in an industry riddled with sensationalism and consensus-led content. No bias, no sponsors, just honest, independent insight from thought leaders.
Teaming up with 30 of the finest independent thinkers, Real Vision Publications gives you access to research, often exclusive to elite investors, exposing you to diverse insights and original thinking.
Real Vision Publications brings you bi-weekly research reports, with over 100 research reports per year covering all aspects of financial markets, all housed on a dedicated platform with download and print features.
With so many quality research reports at your fingertips, you’ll be able to avoid investing pitfalls and be a sharper, smarter investor.
Disclaimer: This content is from Real Vision Publications and is being posted with Real Vision Publications’ permission. The views expressed in this newsletter are solely those of the author and/or Real Vision Publications and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the video. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
We appreciate your feedback. If you have any questions or comments about IB Traders' Insight please contact email@example.com.
The material (including articles and commentary) provided on IB Traders' Insight is offered for informational purposes only. The posted material is NOT a recommendation by Interactive Brokers (IB) that you or your clients should contract for the services of or invest with any of the independent advisors or hedge funds or others who may post on IB Traders' Insight or invest with any advisors or hedge funds. The advisors, hedge funds and other analysts who may post on IB Traders' Insight are independent of IB and IB does not make any representations or warranties concerning the past or future performance of these advisors, hedge funds and others or the accuracy of the information they provide. Interactive Brokers does not conduct a "suitability review" to make sure the trading of any advisor or hedge fund or other party is suitable for you.
Securities or other financial instruments mentioned in the material posted are not suitable for all investors. The material posted does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs and is not intended as a recommendation to you of any particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. Before making any investment or trade, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Any information provided by third parties has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate; however, IB does not warrant its accuracy and assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions.
Any information posted by employees of IB or an affiliated company is based upon information that is believed to be reliable. However, neither IB nor its affiliates warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy. IB does not make any representations or warranties concerning the past or future performance of any financial instrument. By posting material on IB Traders' Insight, IB is not representing that any particular financial instrument or trading strategy is appropriate for you.