IB Traders Insight


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Stocks

The Hammerstone Report


Stock futures are looking to rebound as the NASDAQ underperformed Wednesday thanks in part to a decline in biotech stocks, as shares of Mylan Inc. (MYL) fell over 5% (brings 3-day loss to over 12%) as criticism over the drugmaker’s decision to jack up the price of lifesaving EpiPens (latest comments by Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton) dragged the health-care sector and the broader market along with it. The S&P 500 Index also traded to a 2-week low as a weaker than expected reading of existing home sales for July and lower crude oil prices pressured stocks (particularly commodity prices). With healthcare and commodity prices falling yesterday, markets now turn their attention to the Fed, as the summit of central bankers in Jackson Hole gets ready to kick off today (with Fed Chair Yellen speaking tomorrow). In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -41 points to 16,555, the Shanghai Index dropped -17 points to 3,068 and the Hang Seng Index slid -5 points to 22,814. European stocks slide after a surprise drop in German business confidence, as Germany’s DAX dropped by 1.3% to 10,488.13 (prior to the release of the Ifo data, it was down by 0.8%).

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

  • The S&P 500 Index dropped -11.46 points, or 0.52%, to 2,175.44
  • The Dow  Jones Industrial Average fell -65.82 points, or 0.35%, to 18,481.48
  • The Nasdaq Composite dropped -42.38 points, or 0.81%, to 5,217.69
  • The Russell 2000 Index declined -11.33 points, or 0.91% to 1,237.25
     

Events Calendar for Today

  • 8:30 AM ET         Weekly Jobless Claims…est. 265K
  • 8:30 AM ET         Continuing Claims…est. 2.15M
  • 8:30 AM ET         Durable Goods Orders July-P…est. 3.4%
  • 9:45 AM ET         Markit US Services PMI, Aug-P…est. 51.8
  • 9:45 AM ET         Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index…prior 43.6
  • 10:30 AM ET      Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
  • 11:00 AM ET       Kansas City Fed Manufacturing for Aug…est. -2

 

Earnings Calendar:

  • Earnings Before the Open: BURL, CM, DG, DLTR, FLWS, FRED, LEJU, MDT, MIK, PDCO, SAFM, SIG, TD, TECD, TIF, TITN, ZAYO
  • Earnings After the Close: ADSK, BRCD, GME, PSTG, SPLK, ULTA, VMEM   
     

World News

  • Germany's Ifo index fell sharply in August, as the sentiment index dipped to a reading of 106.2 from 108.3 in July and below estimates for a slight rise in the index to 108.5
  • China’s securities regulator is probing IMC BV, a Dutch high-frequency trader, over its activity in the futures market during China’s stock market rout last summer, the second western group to face regulatory fallout from the turmoil – Financial Times reports

The content of this post was created by the Hammerstone Group. The Hammerstone Institutional Forum, a chat-based platform for traders, provides subscribers with up-to-the-minute breaking news headlines and instant analysis that drive the market. For more information please visit www.thehammerstone.com. For more information on the stocks mentioned in the Hammerstone Recap, please contact Brian Ducey at brian@thehammerstone.com.

This article is from the Hammerstone Group and is being posted with the Hammerstone Group's permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or the Hammerstone Group and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


10630




Macro

GUOSEN Closing Bell (August.25)


MARKET

Chinese stocks closed lower today, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index ended at 3068.33 points. The A share market faltered amid rising concerns over continuality of monetary policy and liquidity management. Steel and non bank financial sectors led the gains; while property and building sectors led the falls. Combined turnover for both markets was 511.1 bn yuan, up 13.8% dod.

 

CLOSE

%CHG

VOL (bn yuan)

%YTD

SH Composite

3068.33

-0.57

200.9

-13.30

SZ Component

10679.15

-0.76

310.2

-15.68

CSI300

3308.97

-0.63

124.4

-11.31

ChiNext

2180.66

-0.53

92.0

-19.65

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

Steel

002110

Non bank financial

601099

Downward-leading

Property

600291

Building

600322

 

NEWS

*Jiangxi Copper Co, China's biggest copper producer, said it will step up overseas mergers and acquisitions after low metal prices eroded profit by more than a third. Net profit slumped 38 percent to 643 million yuan ($96.8 million) in the first half, from 1.03 billion yuan a year earlier, the company said in a statement to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Wednesday, amid slowing domestic demand, rising production and record imports of the refined metal. Sales climbed 20 percent to 90 billion yuan, under international accounting standards. The company will seek to capture M&A opportunities in mining that are arising from low commodity prices and "facilitate the progress of internationalization of the company," the State-owned smelter said. (China Daily)

*China's first flexible display production line will go into operation next year, making bracelet-shaped mobile phones and folding tablets, according to BOE Technology Group on Wednesday. BOE will invest 46.5 billion yuan ($6.99 billion) on its 6-generation AMOLED (active matrix/organic light-emitting diode) production line in Chengdu, Sichuan Province in southwest China. AMOLED is new technology, physically flexible with a fast response, high contrast and wide visual angles, compared with traditional LCD panels. (Xinhua)

 

FUND FLOW

 

Click here for more information about Guosen.

This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 

 

 


10629




Macro

European Market Outlook: Ifo in focus, markets continue Yellen countdown..


Morning Briefing - August 25th 2016


Thursday throws up a busy calendar day, with the German August Ifo survey the likely early highlight.

The European kicks off with the publication of the German June construction orders data at 0600GMT, followed by the French manufacturing and services sentiment indices and the August Business Climate Index at 0645GMT.  

At 0700GMT, the Spanish Q2 final GDP data and the July PPI data will be released.

The August IFO Survey will be published at 0800GMT.

The main UK release comes at 1000GMT, when the August CBI Distributive Trades data is released.

The CBI distributive trades survey is expected to relinquish some of the sizeable loss made in July. The year-on-year increase in sales plummeted to four and a half year low of -14% in July from +4% in June. All three analysts expect an improvement to be notched up in August.

Official retail sales figures have shown consumers have not chosen to curtail immediate spending as a result of the Brexit vote, with month-on-month sales up 1.4% and yearly sales up 5.9%. This was attributed to increased sales in clothing and footwear, following sunnier weather, and a weaker sterling which encouraged foreigners to purchase luxury items.  

Across the Atlantic, the US calendar kicks off at 1230GMT, when the latest Jobless claims data and the July Durable Goods are released.  The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise by 3,000 to 265,000 in the August 20 week.

Durable goods orders are expected to rebound by 3.1% in July after sharp transportation-led declines in the previous two months.

Boeing reported 73 orders in the month, up sharply from only 12 in June, so aircraft orders could rebound after plunging in the previous month.

At 1345GMT, the August flash Markit Services Index, with the latest natural gas stocks data due at 1430GMT.

The August Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index is due for release at 1500GMT.

Late US data sees the publication of the latest Fed Weekly M2 Money Supply Data at 2030GMT.

 

Global Economic Trading Calendar


 

Markets


FOREX: It was another quiet affair in the Asia-Pacific region as investors patiently wait for Fed-Chair Yellen's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium tomorrow, currency pairs remained in well-trodden ranges. Kiwi-dollar was a slight outlier rising from $0.7307 to $0.7335, bulls were encouraged by the news that Fonterra had increased their milk price forecast to N$4.75/kg from N$4.25/kg. Kiwi-dollar was last at $0.7320. Aussie-dollar seemed to ride on the coattails of the kiwi, rising from $0.7604 to $0.7632 and was last at $0.7628. Dollar-yen was held hostage in a tight Y100.39 to Y100.62 range and was last at Y100.47. Meanwhile, euro-dollar carved out a $1.1259 to $1.1276 range, the focus coming later in the European session with German IFO Survey (0800GMT). Euro-dollar was last at $1.1272.

US INDEX FUTURES: US stock index futures are trading slightly lower in quiet trade, with the market weighed down by weakness in Asian equities, namely Chinese shares. Much of the weakness in US stocks yesterday was about Epipen, a life-saving treatment for millions of Americans whose allergies can send them into an anaphylactic shock. Mylan, which makes Epipen, hiked the price by 400% and a pack of two now costs $608. That incurred the wrath of legislators and the FDA, sending Mylan's share price sharply lower and biotech had its worst day in two months. Currently the Jun'16 e-mini S&P futures are trading down 1.50 points at 2,173.50, the Jun'16 e-mini Nasdaq futures are trading down 3.00 points at 4,783.25, while the Jun'16 e-mini Dow futures are trading down 14 points at 18,458.

US STOCKS CLOSE: US stocks saw steady selling Wednesday, erasing Tuesday's modest gains and then some as market players pared and squared positions ahead of Fed Chair Yellen's Jackson Hole speech Friday. The DJIA closed down 0.35% at 18,481.48, the Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.81% at 5,217.695 and the S&P 500 closed down 0.52% at 2,175.44.

US TSYS: It been another slow start for treasuries, with prices essentially unchanged from Thursday's trade, as the market counting down to Yellen's testimony. As MNI wrote yesterday regarding Yellen's Jackson Hole speech: Yellen last spoke at the conference in 2014, when she also gave the opening remarks. In that speech, Yellen focused on needed labor market progress -- the conference topic that year -- and only addressed near-term monetary policy by repeating what had been said at the previous FOMC meeting. This could be the case again this year. Details of the program for the conference hosted by the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank won't be released until Thursday at 8 p.m. ET,

JAPAN STOCKS: Japanese stocks have closed Thursday's morning session slightly lower, weighed down by weakness in US equities and energy prices. The Nikkei has closed for lunch down 0.26% or 42.19 points at 16,555.11, while the Topix is down 0.32% or 4.13 points at 1,302.58

GOLD: Spot gold last up $0.40 at $1,324.50 per ounce, in a $1,326.90 to $1,323.40 range so far this morning in Asia, with the market consolidating after Wednesday's losses. Early NY trade saw some ~11k of Gold futures sold in a matter of minutes, taking the market down some ~$10.00 to around the $1,328 level, with prices struggling to recover from there. Sources initially thought it was a 'fat-finger' error, but it later emerged that it was a substantial ETF order that was behind the move

OIL: WTI crude oil futures for Oct'16 delivery last down $0.08 at $46.70 per barrel, after a $46.85 to $46.65 range in Asia today. Wednesday saw crude fall sharply on the EIA inventory data, although the market did recover on reports from the WSJ, who claimed that an OPEC representative had seen a letter from Iran, confirming that it would attend next month's informal summit in Algeria.

 

Technical Analysis


BUND: (U16) Hesitating Ahead of Key 168.13 Resistance

*RES 4: 169.93 Weekly Bull channel top 1
*RES 3: 168.86 2016 & Record high June 24
*RES 2: 168.13 High July 6
*RES 1: 168.08 Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 167.70

*SUP 1: 167.37 Low Aug 23
*SUP 2: 167.18 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*SUP 3: 166.78 Rising daily trend line
*SUP 4: 166.55 55-DMA    

*COMMENTARY: The 166.36-71 support region confirmed significance with the contract bouncing to now pressure 168.13. Bulls continue to look for a close above 168.13 to hint at a break higher with a close above 2016 & record highs targeting the weekly bull channel top (169.93). Bears continue to look for a close below 166.36 to confirm breaks of the 55-DMA, rising daily trend line and weekly bull channel base, shifting immediate focus to 165.29-51.

EUROSTOXX: Testing Key Resistance Region

*RES 4: 3156.86 Monthly high Apr 21
*RES 3: 3097.96 High May 31
*RES 2: 3063.40 High Aug 15
*RES 1: 3032.37 200-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3008.59

*SUP 1: 2949.60 Low Aug 22
*SUP 2: 2927.11 55-DMA
*SUP 3: 2909.14 Bollinger band base
*SUP 4: 2892.52 Low Aug 3

*COMMENTARY: The index has bounced back to retest the base of the rising daily channel as bulls now focus on the 3032.37-3097.96 region where the 200-DMA, 55 & 200-WMAs are located.  Bulls need a close above this region to reconfirm a bullish bias and shift overall focus to tests of the 100-WMA (3238.52). Bears continue to look for a close below 2892.52 to confirm focus on 2016 low.

 

EurexFutures Market Close


No prices due to technical difficulties.

 

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MNI’s news services are now available via the IB Trader platform. Please click here to view our provider page or contact MNI directly on sales@mni-news.com or +1 212 669 6400 for our Americas sales team and +44 207 862 7408 for our EMEA sales team.

This article is from Eurex Exchange and is being posted with Eurex Exchange’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Eurex Exchange and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


10628




Technical Analysis

S&P500 (ES) Forming 1st Red Weekly Candle in 9 Weeks


S&P500 (ES) slipped just over 0.5% yesterday as its consolidation within a slightly upsloping channel (on the daily chart) continues ahead of tomorrow's highly anticipated comments/announcement out of the Jackson Hole meeting.  Significantly, the ES is trying to form its first red weekly candle in 9 weeks just under ascending wedge resistance (on the weekly chart).  Weekly and daily RSI, Stochastics and MACD are toppish, sliding down, or consolidating recent losses.  I am flat and will wait for a further intraday bounce to the 2180-2190 range before shorting intraday (and targeting the upsloping support line in the 4hr chart).

 

S&P500 (CME ES Sep16) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly

 

Click here for today's technical analysis on VIX, Nasdaq100

 

 

Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures, spot FX and equity CFD markets can be traded consistently profitably. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter (blog) provides technical analysis on a subset of ten to twelve CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, interest rates), spot FX and US equity markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

 

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 

 


10627




Options

What's Trading? RUT



CBOETV – Kevin Davitt, Senior Instructor, CBOE Options Institute, discusses RUT and details an Oct/Nov put spread and election volatility.
 

Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, a person must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Copies are available from your broker, or at www.theocc.com. The information in this program is provided solely for general education and information purposes. No statement within the program should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell a security or to provide investment advice. The opinions expressed in this program are solely the opinions of the participants, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of CBOE or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates. You agree that under no circumstances will CBOE or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers, trading permit holders, employees, and agents, be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on information obtained from the program.

Copyright © 2016 Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated.   All rights reserved.
 

This video is from CBOE and is being posted with CBOE’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or CBOE and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


10626




1 2 3 4 5 2 1104

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