IB Traders Insight


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Technical Analysis

VIX (VX) Forming 1st Green Weekly Candle in 5 Weeks


The VIX (VX) edged slightly lower yesterday as it continued grinding against downtrend support (on the daily chart) but remains interesting as a potential bounce play (off downtrend support on the daily chart) in the next few sessions, particularly with the FOMC tomorrow (Wed) at 2pm EST, and the BoJ's widely anticipated stimulus package announcement on Friday.  Now that the 4hr RSI, Stochastics and MACD are bottomish, bulls will be watching closely for the daily MACD to positively cross.  Significantly, the first green weekly candle in 5 weeks is occurring just above downtrend support (on the weekly chart).  I am long as of today's European morning at 15.5 and am tentatively looking to target 16 by the late US morning.

 

VIX (CFE VX Aug16) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly

 

Click here for today's technical analysis on S&P500, Wheat

 

Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures, spot FX and equity CFD markets can be traded consistently profitably. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter (blog) provides technical analysis on a subset of ten to twelve CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, interest rates), spot FX and US equity markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

 

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


10299




Macro

GUOSEN Closing Bell (July.26)


MARKET

Chinese stocks closed higher today, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index ended at 3050.17 points. The A share market rebounded from 3000 points despite SOE’s profit drop, market sentiment improved as expectation of stimuli grew. Beverage and home appliance sectors led the gains; none sector fell. Combined turnover for both markets was 485.1 bn yuan, down 1.3% dod.

 

CLOSE

%CHG

VOL (bn yuan)

%YTD

SH Composite

3050.17

1.14

185.5

-13.82

SZ Component

10852.21

1.25

299.6

-14.31

CSI300

3269.59

1.2

124.4

-12.37

ChiNext

2279.55

1.5

80.8

-16.01

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

Beverage

600559

Home appliance

002076

Downward-leading

 

 

 

 

 

NEWS

*China's Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties Co Ltd said on Monday one of its largest shareholders intends to approve the developer's Hong Kong delisting proposal, as it aims to dispel uncertainty over whether the proposal can gain sufficient votes. In a stock exchange filing, Wanda Commercial said China Life Insurance Co Ltd - which owns around 7.4 percent of its Hong Kong shares - has sent a letter of intent favoring the delisting. China Life is joint largest shareholder of the developer's Hong Kong shares, along with the Kuwait Investment Authority. (China Daily)

*As Shanghai Disneyland opened last month, the housing projects adjacent to the park have seen their prices surge, with some likely to reach 80,000 yuan ($11,982) per square meter, Securities Daily says. When the Shanghai Disneyland project began six years ago, the new home price in Chuansha section, which is only 3km away from the resort, was less than 19,000 yuan per square meter. Now, prices of some projects have reached 50,000 yuan. (China Daily)

 

 FUND FLOW

Click here for more information about Guosen.

This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


10298




Macro

European Market Outlook: Risk off as Japanese stimulus to disappoint


Morning Briefing July 26th 2016


There is plenty of data on both sides of the Atlantic Tuesday, as well as the start of the Fed's 2-day policy meeting.


The European calendar gets underway at 0700GMT, with the release of the Spanish PPI data.


In the UK, the June BBA mortgage lending data will be published at 0830. At 1030GMT, the Bank of England will allocate funds at the latest liquidity provision LTRO.


Across the Atlantic, the US calendar gets underway at 1230GMT, with the release of the July Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index.


The latest week's Redbook Retail Sales Index will be released at 1255GMT.


Back in Europe, at 1300GMT, the BNB Business Sentiment index will cross the wire.


The S&P Case-Shiller May Home Price Index will also be published at 1300GMTm followed by the Markit July flash services Index at 1345GMT.


At 1400GMT, the July Richmond Fed Survey, June new home sales and the July Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index will all be released.


New home sales are expected to accelerate to a 555,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate in June following a 6.0% retracement in May. Surveys of mortgage applications have been positive as consumers try to take advantage of low rates while they last, a good indication of sales strength. Likewise, home supply rose by 1.2% in May and is likely to   rise further in the coming months based on recent home building data.  

 
The index of consumer confidence is expected to fall back to 96.2 in July after rising sharply to 98.0 in June, giving back roughly half of that June gain.


Rebounding stock prices and a rebound in the employment data continue to support confidence, but concerns about terrorist attacks were more prominent. In addition, Brexit may have weighed on the minds of some investors with exposure
to European business. The preliminary Michigan Sentiment Index fell to 89.5 in July from 93.5 in June.    

                                                   
The July Dallas Fed Services Survey will be published at 1430GMT.


The last European release for the day comes at 1600GMT, when the June Labour Ministry Jobseekers data is published.


The Federal Reserve's FOMC start their 2-day policy meet Tuesday, with the decision expected around 1815GMT Weds. The Democratic National Convention gets underway from Monday.

 

Global Economic Trading Calendar


 

Markets


FOREX: It was an unobtrusive start to the new trading week in the Asia-Pacific region, broad-based dollar strength seen in New York on Friday, carried over into Asia and the greenback managed to eke out a few fresh highs along the way. Tokyo-fix related demand saw dollar-yen higher, the pair holding a Y106.06 to Y106.72 range and was last at Y106.30. Euro-dollar edge lower from $1.0989 to $1.0952 before meeting demand to bounce back to around $1.0975. Meanwhile, Aussie-dollar was in consolidation mode, holding a tight $0.7456 to $0.7481 range, the focus is clearly on Wednesday's Q2 CPI, which should give us a clearer picture on the Reserve Bank's OCR intensions. Aussie-dollar was last at $0.7474.

US INDEX FUTURES: US stock index futures are trading slightly higher, following the lead from the Nikkei. Currently the Sep'16 e-mini S&P futures are trading up 1.50 points at 2,169.00, the Sep'16 e-mini Nasdaq futures are trading up 3.50 points at 4,660.75, while the Sep'16 e-mini Dow futures are trading up 16 points at 18,494.

US STOCKS CLOSE: While other asset classes remained rangy and or saw profit-taking, U.S. stocks firmed further Friday. The DJIA closed up 0.29% at 18,570.85, the Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.52% at 5,100.162 and the S&P 500 closed up 0.46% at 2,175.03. Wednesday, the DJIA and S&P 500 posted new life-time highs of 18,622.01 and 2,175.63. Earlier, the Nasdaq Composite posted a high of 5,103.519, the highest level since Dec 29, 2015 (5,116.990 high). The life-time Nasdaq high was 5,231.942, seen July 20, 2015. At Friday's close (life-time high close), the S&P 500 was up 6.4% ytd. BOA Merrill Lynch's monthly fund managers’ survey, taken July 8-14 and released this week, showed that a net 9% of PMs were overweight U.S. stocks in July, the first such overweight in 17 months. This compared to a net 15% UW in June and a net 18% UW in May. The turnabout in U.S. stock holdings helps to explain the solid run-up in U.S. stocks in the post Brexit environment. From the post Brexit low of 1,991.68 to Friday's close, the S&P 500 has risen 9.2%.

US TSYS: It's been a very slow start to the week for cash treasuries, with market the only seeing some ~$1bln change hands. The market is trading slightly lower, on slight risk on trade with the curve flattening slightly as 2's under perform. Ten-year futures have eased 3-ticks on lackluster volumes of 38k and are currently last at 132-01

JAPAN STOCKS: Japanese stocks have posted slight gains as the market trades with a small risk on bid, with the Yen weakening. Nintendo shares plunged after the company said late Friday the financial impact from Pokemon Go will be limited, Bloomberg reported, with the stock down as much as 17%. The Nikkei has closed for lunch up 0.38% or 63.35 points at 16,690.60, while the Topix is up 0.35% or 4.60 points at 1,332.11.

GOLD: Spot gold last down $5.35 at $1317.40 per ounce, in a $1323.80 to $1313.60 range so far this morning in Asia, with a slight risk on bid seeing the Usd strengthen against the yen and hence pressuring Gold. Late Friday saw gold firm on the reported shootings in Munich yesterday that saw gold climb to a good $1,330 per troy ounce. Gold in euro terms regained the E1,200 per troy ounce mark. As the data from the Swiss Federal Customs Administration show, Switzerland exported more gold to Asia again in June. Commerzbank notes that exports to Hong Kong in particular grew sharply, soaring by nearly 50% month-on-month to 35.8 tons. Exports to China remained virtually unchanged at the previous month's level, while exports to India picked up somewhat. Last month, Switzerland's combined exports to Hong Kong, China and India totaled 75 tons. Commerzbank says that "this was the highest volume since January and points to reviving gold demand in Asia". Gold support is seen at $1,310 while resistance is seen at $1,335.

OIL: WTI crude oil futures for Sep'16 delivery are trading down $0.01 at $44.18 per barrel, after a $44.37 to $44.03 range in Asia today, with the market lacking fresh leads for direction. Friday saw WTI post fresh lows in the wake of the Baker Hughes data, released Friday afternoon, showing an increase of 14 new rigs to 371 rigs for US "oil only" rigs in the week ending July 22. This compared to 659 rigs a year-ago and was down 76.9% from the peak rig count of 1,609 rigs seen October 10, 2014. Short-term support is seen at $43.81, while $44.73 offers resistance.

 

Technical Analysis


BUND TECHS: (U16) 166.87 Now The Bar To A Greater Recovery

*RES 4: 167.54 76.4% Fibo of 168.13-165.63
*RES 3: 167.37 Jul 13 high
*RES 2: 167.17 Jul 14 high, 61.8% of 168.13-165.63
*RES 1: 166.87 Jul 19 high

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 166.63
                                   
*SUP 1: 166.31 Hourly support
*SUP 2: 166.01 Jul 22 low
*SUP 3: 165.63 Jul 21 low
*SUP 4: 165.51 Jun 30 low

*COMMENTARY* Continues to recover following last week's dip to 165.63, which kept us above the post Brexit low at 165.51. Now looking toward the reaction to the Jul 19 high at 166.87. Will need to navigate a path through here, before the chance of a greater correction of the losses seen since the Jun 24 high at 168.86. Meanwhile, initial support comes from above 166.31, with 166.01 then the protection against another 165.63-165.51 fall.

 

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Unable As Yet To Maintain Break Of Key 2988.0 Level

*RES 4: 3089.0 May 31 high
*RES 3: 3058.0 Jun 23 high
*RES 2: 2994.0 Jul 25 high
*RES 1: 2988.0 Hourly resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 2965.0
 
*SUP 1: 2939.0 Jul 22 low
*SUP 2: 2924.0 76.4% Fibo of 2903.0-2994.0
*SUP 3: 2903.0 Jul 19 low
*SUP 4: 2899.0 Jun 30 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Monday saw an attempt to regain ground above dual resistance at 2988.00. As well as a 76.4% Fibo retrace of the 3088.0-2645.0 losses sustained since mid April, this was also an equality rise target from Jul 6 low at 2734.0.
A high of 2994.0 seen before closing at the lower 2965.0 level. In the interim, any setback sees support from between 2939.0-2924.0. The latter now needing to hold to avoid any deeper correction.

 

Eurex Futures Market Close


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This article is from Eurex Exchange and is being posted with Eurex Exchange’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Eurex Exchange and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


10297




Options

What's Trading: SPX


CBOETV – Russell Rhoads, CFA, Director of Education, CBOE Options Institute discusses an SPX iron condor in Wednesday weekly options.

Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, a person must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Copies are available from your broker, or at www.theocc.com. The information in this program is provided solely for general education and information purposes. No statement within the program should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell a security or to provide investment advice. The opinions expressed in this program are solely the opinions of the participants, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of CBOE or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates. You agree that under no circumstances will CBOE or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers, trading permit holders, employees, and agents, be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on information obtained from the program.

Copyright © 2016 Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated.   All rights reserved.

This video is from CBOE and is being posted with CBOE’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or CBOE and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


10296




Futures

Crude Supply/Demand & Gold Futures Ahead of FOMC Meeting


Scott Martin, Fox News Contributor & Kingsview Asset Management

This video is from CME Group and is being posted with CME Group’s permission. The views expressed in this video are solely those of the author and/or CME Group and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the video. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


10294




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