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Macro

Interactive Brokers -Asia - Pacific Calendar: The Week Ahead (Dec 17 -23)


Interactive Brokers senior market analyst Steven Levine provides some highlights for what to look for in the Asia-Pacific region in the week beginning December 17. Experience the IBKR Platform! Use our powerful trading platform to begin trading a simulated account for free and without commitment.

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Produced on December 12, 2018

The analysis in this material is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


21984




Futures

FX Rundown


Euro (December)

Session close: Settled at 1.13675, down 4 ticks

Fundamentals: The Euro’s range of little more than half a penny tells a story of an ECB meeting that played out just as expected. They confirmed their QE bond buying program is ending this month and they hope to raise rates after next summer. ECB President Mario Draghi acknowledged the softer data of late but seemed upbeat that the tightening labor market will push up wages. Their GDP forecast in 2019 was revised from 1.8% to 1.7%. In fact, the ECB’s comments were so inline with predictions that the small spike lower at 7:30 am CT was arguably in part a reaction to the much better U.S weekly Initial Jobless Claims read. To close out the week, tomorrow brings December flash PMI data. Regionally, France is due at 2:15 am CT and Germany at 2:30 am before the Eurozone read at 3:00 am CT. From the U.S, we look to Retail Sales at 7:30 am CT, Industrial Production at 8:15 am, flash PMIs at 8:45 am and Business Inventories at 9:00 am.

Technicals: The Euro continues its wedge-like consolidation. To the downside, first key support has been extremely constructive as the trend line from... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

Yen (December)

Session close: Settled at .8804, down 31.5 ticks

Fundamentals: It is no surprise that the Yen trekked lower today as the Dollar remains at the highs of the year and Treasury prices continue to relieve overbought conditions. If this unenthusiastic trade were to get a boost in volume, there is not time better than tonight. The Tankan Index Survey data is due tonight at 5:50 pm CT. A slew of data from China includes Fixed Asset Investment, Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Unemployment at 8:00 pm CT. Lastly, from Japan, Industrial Production is due at 10:30 pm CT.

Technicals: Price action is looking to test major three-star support at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

Aussie (December)

Session close: Settled at .7226, up 6 ticks

Fundamentals: The Aussie continues to trade in a very favorable manner, remaining extremely constructive against crucial support. A breeze of more favorable trade winds has kept the currency stable despite the recent pullback. Today’s range was small but strength in commodities, specifically energies likely helped keep buyers at the table. Tonight, will be pivotal with a slew of data coming from China. Remember, China is Australia’s number one trade partner. Fixed Asset Investment, Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Unemployment are all due at 8:00 pm CT.

Technicals: Price action battled and held perfectly at major three-star support at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

Canadian (December)

Session close: Settled at .7488, down 3 ticks

Fundamentals: The Canadian has stabilized from an 18-month low and price action ticked up as Crude Oil recovered strongly on the session. The strong U.S Dollar, Oil rout, trade uncertainty and poor domestic data has all weighed heavily on the currency in recent weeks and months. China’s data tonight will help or hurt overall global risk sentiment as will flash PMIs from Europe and the U.S. Still, for now it does not look like the Canadian is going anywhere unless the U.S Dollar fails.

Technicals: Overall, the Canadian feels oversold but there is no enthusiasm behind the trade technically or fundamentally. A close above ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with Blue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in this material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


21985




Stocks

Interactive Brokers Asset Management - Will It Be Another Wild Day For The Stock Market on December 13?


Today is December 13

  • S&P 500 futures are pointing to a lower opening of 3 points as of 7:30 AM
  • The US 10-year rate is at 2.89%
  • Dollar Index is at 96.97
  • WTI Crude Oil is $50.96
  • Critical events for today: – ECB Rate Decision and Press Conference – around 7:45 AM

 

Recap of International Trading:

Japan was  +0.99%

Hong Kong Hang Seng Index +1.29%

China Shanghai Comp. +1.23%

UK FTSE up -0.08%

 

FED Rate Hike Watch:

According to the CME, there is now a 78% chance of a rate hike in December, that is up from 77% yesterday.

Currently, the market is pricing in a 33% chance there is no rate hike in 2019 and a 37% chance of just one rate hike.

No GAP higher or low

So far today we are looking for a modest drop in the S&P 500 to start the day, and that is a good piece of news. The gaps up and down have created a great deal of volatility in the recent weeks.

There is a mild uptrend that has formed in the S&P 500 and should we have a flat opening; there is a good chance we can continue along that uptrend higher and retest yesterday’s highs around 2,686.  Should that uptrend not hold, then it would set up a retest of 2,630.

FAAMNG

Once again the market will lean heavily on the Apple, Facebook, Alphabet, Netflix, Microsoft, Amazon, and the Chip stocks to get a sense of direction. These stocks continue to be among the largest in the marketplace and these are once again the stocks that weigh the most heavily on the path of the index.

 

Microsoft (MSFT)

Of all the stocks in the market, Microsoft has been one the most stable.

 

Amazon (AMZN)

Amazon will try to continue to rise today. The stock was able to rise above a short-term downtrend yesterday. Resistance continues to be around 1,760, support around $1620.

 

Facebook (FB)

Facebook did rise above a long-term downtrend, and it would seem the path for the stock is higher to around $148.

 

Netflix (NFLX)

Netflix rose above a resistance level yesterday clearing a short-term downtrend and a resistance level around $271. Resistance is at $285 appears to be strong.

 

Apple (AAPL)

Apple is trying to change the course of its trend. $164 has continued to offer strong support. It is going to take a rise above $171 for Apple to move on to $180.

 

Alphabet (GOOGL)

Alphabet is also slowly trending higher, with resistance around 1,125.

 

Broadcom

Rose above a downtrend yesterday and cleared resistance around $251. The stock appears poised to rise to around $274.

 

Banks

The banks are the one group that can make things difficult for the broader market. The BKX bank index has been a free fall and has dropped below 90.50. It could quickly send the index to around 88.50.

 

JPMorgan

JPMorgan is the biggest bank, and resistance appears to be firm around $102.

 

Citigroup (C)

Support for Citigroup is around $55.

 

Bank of America

Bank of America could be heading towards $22.90.

 

Goldman Sachs (GS)

The next level of support for Goldman is $171.

Good Luck!

--

Michael Kramer is a Portfolio Manager for Interactive Brokers Asset Management, an online investing marketplace and a division of Interactive Brokers Group.

MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN AAPL, NFLX, GOOGL

This material is not intended as investment advice. IBKR Asset Management or portfolio managers on its marketplace may hold long or short positions in the companies mentioned through stocks, options or other securities.

This material is from Interactive Brokers Asset Management and is being posted with Interactive Brokers Asset Management’s permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


21978




Stocks

City Of Hype - Apple Stock Price Falls After Citi Price Cut - By Cameron Samuel


Investors saw Apple stock price (NASDAQ: AAPL) fall yet again on Monday, following on from yet another price-target slash. The latest in the series of Apple stock price-target cuts comes from Citi analysts. Another blow for Apple came from their ongoing legal battle with wireless chip company, Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM). 

We reported earlier this month that HSBC downgraded Apple stock, with Goldman Sachs downgrading the company only weeks before. In November, we also saw JPMorgan downgrade Apple shares. This week it is Citi investment bank that is cutting Apple’s stock price target, from $240 to $200. The investment bank also explained how AAPL shares could reach lows of $125 if Apple’s revenue growth drops to 2-3% a year.

The reasoning behind Citi’s downgrade on Apple was mainly down to poor sales in China and further impact from the U.S/China trade war. In Q3, sales in China represented 18% of Apple’s revenue.

 

Qualcomm & Apple Court Battle

Qualcomm and Apple have been battling in court for quite some time. Qualcomm won a court injunction this week preventing the sale of older model iPhones within China. The Fuzhou Intermediate People’s Court has said that Apple breached two of Qualcomm’s patents for photograph softwares. The injunction is stopping the sale of iPhone 6S to the iPhone X.

To combat against revenue losses caused by the injunction. Apple can update the patent-infringing software and remove the features which violate Qualcomm’s patent. Once updating the software, Apple will be able to sell all iPhones again in China.

Qualcomm and Apple are still fighting in court in attempts to settle the patent infringement claims. Qualcomm stock price (NASDAQ: QCOM) made gains of 3.5 percent after the preliminary court injunction was announced.

To conclude, as U.S/China trade-war escalates, Apple will find itself under more regulatory pressure from China. According to KeyBanc, Apple’s App Store is at risk of regulatory scrutiny.

--

Originally Posted on December 10, 2018

City Of Hype is an online publication focusing on stock market news and business guides. Featuring real-time analysis and investment tools for investors.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from City Of Hype and is being posted with City Of Hype’s permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or City Of Hype and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


21963




Forex

Krane Funds Advisors LLC - China Overnight - By Brendan Ahern


China Move Higher on Strong Volumes, NDRC bond push, QD short squeeze, VC tax cut

Hope all is well! We have a very interesting meeting with a very senior US China politician today that I will share in my notes tomorrow.

Key Development Overnight – Yes market sentiment is improving based on improved US China trade talks though a major factor was a release from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). The NDRC announced it would support the issuance of bonds from companies with “sound credit records”. The market is reading this as a potential loosening on property development which has large downstream implications. Real estate, construction and appliance makers unsurprisingly led the mainland market higher. Another opportunity are property developers US $ denominated bonds issued in HK as foreign investors have sold off these bonds due to the curtailments that may be coming off. The coming CEWC could see more stimulus measures may be coming to support the economy.

Hang Seng gained +1.29% on volumes 14% higher than yesterday with 46 advancers and 3 decliners. Asian markets were broadly higher following the US’ move higher buoyed by improved trade talks and potential a less aggressive Fed. Volumes were still below the 52 week average. HSBC led the market higher +1.88% worth 48 of the index’s 337 point gain followed by AIA +1.02% 24 points and energy giant CNOOC +2.51% worth 17 index points. Within the MSCI China All Shares’ HK stocks, real estate was the leading sector +4.17% followed by materials +3.57%, discretionary +3.29% and industrials +2.72%. Healthcare clawed back recent pharma drug price plunge +2.35%. Tech was fairly lackluster +0.13% on lingering long run concerns of Huawei and US/China tech rift. Alibaba Pictures gained +5.94% on news Aibaba will raise their stake to over 50%. Tencent was quiet +0.62%. Southbound Connect volumes were higher though mainland investors were net sellers.

Shanghai & Shenzhen gained +1.23% and +1.11% on volumes 37% higher day over day and strong breadth. Volumes were below 52 week average but a nice up move confirmed by volume. The NDRC announcement led discretionary +2.72%, real estate +2.5%, industrials +2.34%, staples +2.02% and tech +1.68%. Healthcare experienced a similar gain +1.63%. The potential for real estate development rules to curtailed helped downstream stocks within construction and home appliances. Northbound Connect volumes were higher with buyers greatly exceeding sellers nearly 2 to 1. MSCI Inclusion stocks Kweichow and Ping An saw 5 to 2 and nearly 2 to 1 buyers.

China’s first order of US soybeans was 2 million tons which should arrive from Pacific Northwest ports in Q1. My estimate was a bit high though this is just the first order.

Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE TME) gained +7.69% to close at $14 from the IPO price of $13.

Online/peer to peer lender Qudian (ticker QD) is gapping higher pre-market on strong profit guidance and a $300mm buy back announcement. QD is heavily shorted explaining pre-market trading at $6.28 versus yesterday’s close of $5.26.

Premier Li announced the venture capital firms will receive a tax break beginning Jan 1. The idea is to stimulate private company funding which has been an ongoing issue versus SOEs unfettered access to capital.

 

CNY 6.88

Bonds sold off slightly as large cap mainland stocks yield 2.5% versus the below yields.

Yield on 1 Day Chinese Gov’t Bond 1.72%

Yield on 10 Year Chinese Gov’t Bond 3.28%

Yield on 10 Year China Development Bank Bond 3.85%

 

Commodities were mixed though I would liked to have seen a strong move based on the NDRC news.

--

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Krane Funds Advisors, LLC and is being posted with Krane Funds Advisors, LLC permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Krane Funds Advisors, LLC and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


21977




1 2 3 4 5 2 1806

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