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Macro

GUOSEN Closing Bell (February.23)


MARKET

Chinese stocks closed lower today, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index ended at 3251.38 points. The A-share market fluctuated below the flat line as house tax was put on Beijing’s work agenda, this might send short term shockwave to the market given increasing profit taking pressure. Nonferrous metals and pharmacy sectors led the gains; while building materials and steel sectors led the falls. Combined turnover for both markets was 518.1 bn yuan, up 3.1% dod.

 

CLOSE

%CHG

VOL (bn yuan)

%YTD

SH Composite

3,251.38

-0.30

236.8

4.76

SZ Component

10,432.64

-0.11

281.3

2.51

CSI300

3,473.32

-0.47

106.6

4.93

ChiNext

1,925.95

0.31

67.2

-1.84

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

Nonferrous metals

603993

Pharmacy

002728

Downward-leading

Building materials

000885

Steel

000709

 

NEWS

*SF Express, one of China's largest courier firms, is set to ring the bell and complete its back-door listing on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on Friday. After an asset swap that valued the express delivery giant at an estimated 44.8 billion yuan ($6.8 billion), its reverse merger partner Maanshan Dintai Rare Earth & New Materials Co will be officially renamed as SF Express, according to regulatory filings to the local bourse. The listing will make SF Express the biggest Chinese courier company by market cap, surpassing its rival ZTO Express that went public in October at New York Stock Exchange, raising $1.4 billion. The move also makes Wang Wei, SF Express's chairman and founder, worth more than 111.1 billion yuan, according to media outlet China Money Network, as he holds 64.6 percent of the merged company via an entity 99.9 percent owned by him. (Xinhua)

 

 FUND FLOW

 

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This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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Macro

European Market Outlook: German GDP in focus


Morning Briefing February 23rd 2017


It’s a busy data calendar day Thursday. The European calendar gets underway atm0700GMT, with the publication of the German Consumer Climate and the final Q4 German GDP data.

French data due for publication at 0745GMT includes the Manufacturing and services sentiment data, alongside the Business Climate Indicator.

ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet speaks at 0900GMT, as does ECB Executive Board member Philip Lane.

At the same time, Italian retail sales data will be published.

ECB Governing Council member Jens Weidmann and Buba Board member Carl-Ludwig Thiele will give a press conference as the Bundesbank publish their annual accounts, starting at 1000GMT. At 1045GMT, Gov. Council member Ewald Nowotny sits on a panel discussion.

The only UK data due for release comes at 1100GMT, with the publication of the CBI Distributive Trades data.

Across the Atlantic, the calendar gets underway at 1330GMT, with the release of the Canadian payroll employment data and the US jobless claims data.

The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall by 4,000 to 235,000 in the Feb. 18 employment survey week, almost reversing a 5,000 increase in the previous week. Claim were at a level of 237,000 in the Jan. 14 employment survey week.

The four-week moving average, which rose by 500 in the Feb. 11 week, would fall by 6,250 in the coming week as the 260,000 level in the Jan. 21 week drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions. The average would break through the 43-year record low posted in February 4 week.

The FHFA Home Price Index will be published at 1400GMT.

At 1530GMT, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart speaks.

The US Natural Gas storage data will be published at 1530GMT, followed by the DOE weekly crude oil stocks data at 1600GMT.

The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index will be published at 1600GMT, followed by the Treasury Preliminary Allotments at 2000GMT and the Fed's M2 Weekly Money Supply Data at 2130GMT.

 

Global Economic Trading Calendar


 

Markets


FOREX: It was another low-key affair in Asia, investors were busy dissecting last night's FOMC Minutes, leaving the dollar largely unaltered on the session. Dollar-yen opened at Y113.31 and held a Y113.13 to Y113.46 range, last at Y113.27. Aussie held a $0.7665 to $0.7704 range, the weaker-than-expected local Private Capex data did not have a lasting impact. Aussie last at $0.7690. Meanwhile, euro-dollar currently trades at $1.0563 and Cable at $1.2448 after trading in respective ranges of $1.0544 to $1.0567 and $1.2430 to $1.2460

US INDEX FUTURES: US stock index futures are trading slightly lower on light profit taking after the Dow Jones posted its longest run of record closes since 1987 on Wednesday according to DJ data . Currently the Mar'17 e-mini S&P futures are trading down 1.50 points at 2,359.50, the Mar'17 e-mini Nasdaq futures are trading down 3.25 points at 5,347.75, while the Mar'17 e-mini Dow futures are trading down 5 points at 20,745.

US STOCKS CLOSE: U.S. stocks saw mild profit-taking Wednesday, but this did not prevent the Dow Jones Industrial Average from posting a new life-time closing high of 20,781.38. - The DJIA closed up 0.16% at 20,775.60, the Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.09% at 5,860.63 and the S&P 500 closed down 0.11% at 2,362.82.

- On Tuesday, the Nasdaq Composite posted a life-time high of 5,867.886 and the S&P 500 a life-time high of 2,366.71.
US TSYS: Its been a slow start to Thursday's trade, with CT10 in a narrow 2.5-tick range and 0.5bp lower, while 10yr futures are 1.5-ticks higher than the close. Volumes have been on the low side, with cash seeing some $1 bln changing hands. Earlier data from the MOF saw Japanese investors buy around Y48.2 bln or $400 mln of overseas bonds the previous week vs the 4-week average of around ~$4bln and its smallest net purchase since January 2015. Some are attributing 3m Usd/Jpy basis moving further negative as a reason for for the diminishing purchases.

JAPAN STOCKS: Japanese stocks have posted slight losses in a lackluster session as the market continues to await fresh clues for direction. The Nikkei has closed for lunch down 0.35% or 67.80 points at 19,312.07, while the Topix is last down 0.35% or 5.46 points at 1,551.63.

GOLD: Spot gold last down $0.50 at $1,236.95 per ounce, in a $1,238.90 to $1,235.85 range so far this morning in Asia, with the market doing very little despite political risk easing slightly in France, which saw the Euro rally sharply on Wednesday. Spot gold was closing near $1,237.75 per ounce on Wednesday, in the middle of a $1,231.30 to $1,240.70 range.

- Last week, gold traded in a range of $1,216.80 to $1,243.90. - The precious metal topped out Feb. 8 around $1,244.80, the highest level since Nov. 11, when gold peaked at $1,265.49, now the next larger topside target. - Pressure continues to return to the $1244.8 2017 high with gold finding support ahead of the 21-DMA Tuesday. Bulls need a close above $1244.8 to reconfirm the bullish bias and shift immediate focus to the 55-WMA and 200-DMA $1257.6-1261.4.

OIL: WTI crude oil futures for Apr'17 delivery last up $0.44 at $54.03 per barrel, after a $54.05 to $53.87 range in Asia today, with the market rallying on news that API inventories declined by 0.9 mbbl last week, on market expectations of a increase in crude inventories to the tune of 3 mbbl- 4 mbbl. Wednesday saw NYMEX April (new front month) light sweet crude oil futures settled down $0.74 at $53.59 per barrel, after trading in a $53.35 to $54.60 range. Analysts note that current longs in WTI crude at their highest levels in 10-years with open interest also high, suggesting the market is vulnerable to profit taking.

 

Technical Analysis


BUND: (H17) 164.09-75 Support Region Key

*RES 4: 167.86 High Aug 30
*RES 3: 166.84 High Oct 24
*RES 2: 166.42 Daily Bull channel top
*RES 1: 165.53 2017 High Feb 22

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 165.08

*SUP 1: 164.75 Hourly support Feb 22
*SUP 2: 164.09 Low Feb 21
*SUP 3: 163.94 Hourly support Feb 17a
*SUP 4: 163.62 Low Feb 17    

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2017 lows continues with bulls now focused on layers of resistance 166.42-84 where the daily bull channel top is located. O/B daily studies and divergence on the daily momentum study remain concerns for bulls. Layers of support continue to accumulate. Bears now need a close below 164.75 to ease immediate bullish pressure and below 164.09 to shift focus back to 162.97-163.62 where 21, 55 & 100-DMAs are located.

 

EUROSTOXX50: Bollinger Band Top Capping

*RES 4: 3464.81 Low Dec 2 2015 now resistance
*RES 3: 3394.83 High Dec 7 2015
*RES 2: 3357.52 Bollinger band top
*RES 1: 3355.40 2017 High Feb 22

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3339.33

*SUP 1: 3324.68 Low Feb 22
*SUP 2: 3301.15 Low Feb 21
*SUP 3: 3287.48 21-DMA
*SUP 4: 3278.56 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 and 14 month highs see bulls focused on a test of the 3394.83 Dec 7 2015 high. The Bollinger top remains the key concern at present having recently capped. Bears now need a close below 3324.68 to ease bullish pressure and below 3264.84 to confirm breaks of 21 & 55-DMAs and shift focus back to the key 3204.66-3214.31 support region where the 100-WMA is noted.

 

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MNI subscribers make critical decisions with deeper insight and greater confidence. Pinpoint information and market-moving interviews let them react instantly to market changes and more importantly, anticipate future market moves. MNI reporters are market professionals in the news business. They work like journalists but think like traders. When interviewing Fed officials, our reporters ask the same questions you would ask. They cover the angles you would cover. Write the way you read.

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This article is from Eurex Exchange and is being posted with Eurex Exchange’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Eurex Exchange and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


12411




Technical Analysis

BUXL (GBX) Surges ~1% Breaking Above Daily Chart Triangle/Downtrend Resistance


The BUXL (GBX) surged more than 1% yesterday as it smashed above triangle/downtrend resistance (on the daily chart).  Although GBX is bumping up against upchannel resistance (on the 4hr chart), it appears to be readying to retest yesterday's high just shy of 172.  The 172 level coincides with upchannel resistance (on the daily chart), and will likely see some consolidation before any attempt to target triangle resistance (on the weekly chart).  Daily and 4hr RSI, Stochastics and MACD are rallying, bottomish or consolidating recent gains.  The weekly RSI and Stochastics are rallying, but are limited in their interpretive value due to their relatively short history in the accompanied chart.  I am flat after profitably closing a long yesterday and will look to re-enter long intraday in the green zone (of the daily chart) on any early session profittaking, with an upside target of the red zone by early next week.

 

BUXL (Eurex GBX Mar17) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly

 

Click here for today's technical analysis on US Treasury Bond, Cocoa

 

Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures and spot FX markets can be traded consistently profitably. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, and interest rates), spot FX and US equity markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

 

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 

 


12410




Securities Lending

SLB Update: Hardest to Borrow ETFs


These were the 15 hardest to borrow ETFs during the week of 2/14/17 - 2/20/17.

 

The analysis in this article is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


12409




Securities Lending

SLB Update: Largest Short Value


These were the 15 securities with largest short value on 2/20/17.

 

The analysis in this article is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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