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IB Traders' Insight

Global market commentary from IBG traders and market participants.

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2015-03-31 02:58:54

Posted by
Darren Chu, CFA
Founder
Tradable Patterns
Contributor

Technical Analysis

Wheat (ZW) Approaching Horizontal Resistance on Daily Chart

ZW powered ahead yesterday to within striking distance of a horizontal resistance line (seen on the daily chart).  Importantly on the weekly chart, a double bottom has held, and ZW appears readying to challenge horizontal resistance at roughly 565 in the next week or so.  Weekly RSI, Stochastics and MACD, along with daily and 4hr MACD are all bullishly turning up, while daily and 4hr RSI and Stochastics consolidate the gains over the last 2 sessions.

 

Wheat (CME ZW May15) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly

Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures, spot FX and equity CFD markets can be traded consistently profitably. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter (blog) provides technical analysis on a subset of ten to twelve CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, interest rates), spot FX and US equity markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

2015-03-31 02:58:50

Posted by
Darren Chu, CFA
Founder
Tradable Patterns
Contributor

Technical Analysis

Corn (ZC) Possibly Forming Flag Pattern on Daily/4hr Charts

ZC pushed higher yesterday, and appears to be continuing the early stages of a bullish flag pattern (in the 4hr chart).  ZC is still flirting with breaking downchannel resistance (on the daily chart).  With the weekly and daily RSI, Stochastics and MACD mostly turning up or positioned to do so, ZC increasingly appears likely to break above the current resistance zone and target the 400 round figure.

 

Corn (CME ZC May15) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly

Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures, spot FX and equity CFD markets can be traded consistently profitably. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter (blog) provides technical analysis on a subset of ten to twelve CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, interest rates), spot FX and US equity markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice

2015-03-31 02:58:46

Posted by
Darren Chu, CFA
Founder
Tradable Patterns
Contributor

Technical Analysis

SoybSoybean (ZS) Trying to Form Higher Low on Weekly and Daily Charts

ZS saw a bit of downward pressure yesterday, and sits at upchannel support (on the 4hr chart).  A convincing bounce today could set the stage for a higher low versus the mid March low (on the daily chart), along with a higher March low versus the low last October (on the weekly chart).  Weekly, daily and 4hr RSI, Stochastics and MACD are at various stages of forming bottoms.

 

Soybean (CME ZS May15) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly

Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures, spot FX and equity CFD markets can be traded consistently profitably. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter (blog) provides technical analysis on a subset of ten to twelve CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, interest rates), spot FX and US equity markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice

2015-03-30 15:44:52

Posted by
IB Securities Lending Desk
Contributor

Securities Lending

Borrowable liquidity scarce in Vascular Biogenics

Prior to January of this year, Vascular Biogenics Ltd. (Ticker: VBLT) was a thinly traded stock with only a few thousand shares trading per day, on average. In January, the price per share increased substantially, rallying 180% from $6.00 at the start of 2015 up to a 52-week high of $17.03 on January 27th, before tumbling roughly ~$13.00 down to $4.00 during the month of February. Since then, the price of VBLT shares remain volatile, and short sellers have increased their demand to initiate short trades. The borrowable liquidity in VBLT is scarce and the cost to borrow now reflects the high demand. Though scarce, there is some borrowable supply currently floating around the market.

Chart – Six-month chart of VBLT

Table - These were the 15 hardest to borrow securities during the week of 03/23/15 - 03/27/15

2015-03-30 14:59:21

Posted by
John Carter
President
Simpler Stocks
Contributor

Stocks

Simpler Stocks: Friday Movers

Stocks gained minor ground Friday. The key to the day’s action was Fed Chief Yellen’s statement that rate hikes may indeed be on tap for this year, though any rate increases will be gradual as the US economy improves. A late day tech rally also brought the NASDAQ into positive territory, and overall, equities managed to push away from a four-day losing streak.

Abbvie Inc. (Ticker: ABBV)

Buying Pharmacyclics, AbbVie gains access to a promising blood cancer drug, and expands its portfolio beyond the single drug that it currently has, and which is coming off patent in the near term. The forward PE is only 11x, with 4% free cash flow yield and a PEG ratio below 1x.

Micron Technology Inc. (Ticker: MU)

The WSJ reported that MU and INTC are joining together to produce 3-D storage chips. The deal is further evidence that the chip maker is moving beyond the core flash arena. Shares trade for a low 6x forward EPS, at 2.5x book and 0.5x PEG ratio.

Williams Cos. Inc. (Ticker: WMB)

Williams Cos. is an infrastructure company with high leverage to the gas industry; FERC just approved a buildout by one of its affiliates in MD. The forward estimates are pessimistic, resulting in high multiples, but any upside could boost the share price. Energy stocks could also return to favor on any lift in industrial business. 

Vasco Data Security International (Ticker: VDSI)

Late last week this cybersecurity firm said it had gained two new government certifications, with an additional customer win for multi-step authentication technology. Estimates have earnings growing by about 19% over 2016, which is a slight premium to the current multiple. The stock trades at 15x when adjusted for net cash, which is about 15% of the market cap.

Advanced Semiconductor Engineering Inc. (Ticker: ASX)

This $11 billion market-cap semi play has a focus on semiconductor packaging and testing. ASX trades with a forward multiple of 12x, yet estimates have the bottom line growing by 18% over the same timeframe. Sales growth is expected to accelerate to a high-teens percentage rate.  

Workday Inc. (Ticker: WDAY)

A sell side analyst with Brean, launching coverage of Workday last week with a hold rating, notes the company will benefit from enterprise resource tech replacements, including revamps of Y2K fixes. The workplace management software vendor could see some cross selling opportunities, which should help net income break even and then some in the year that ends in January 2017.  Sales growth, meanwhile, is a heady 40%+.

 

About the author: John Carter has been a full time trader for 15 years, serving over 100,000 subscribers in over 100 countries.  For more analysis on high growth stocks visit www.SimplerStocks.com.

 

This article is from Simpler Stocks and is being posted with Simpler Stocks’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Simpler Stocks and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

2015-03-30 14:55:18

Posted by
IB Securities Lending Desk
Contributor

Securities Lending

SLB Update: Largest Short Value Per Sector

The following table shows the top five securities with the largest short value per sector held by IB customers on 03/26/15.

2015-03-30 14:52:56

Posted by
IB Securities Lending Desk
Contributor

Securities Lending

SLB Update: Largest Short Value

These 15 securities had the largest short value held by IB customers on 03/26/15.

2015-03-30 14:49:41

Posted by
IB Securities Lending Desk
Contributor

Securities Lending

SLB Update: Largest ETF Short Value

The following table shows the top 15 ETFs with the largest short value held by IB customers on 03/26/15.

2015-03-30 13:38:24

Posted by
Waverly Advisors, LLC
Technical/Quantitative Market Research
Contributor

Technical Analysis

Waverly Advisors Afternoon Update

Largest Rel Volume: Stocks with the largest multiple of their 20 day average volume. Note that the “average” value for this number will change as the trading day progresses, but the relative position of a stock within this list should show some persistence. These are likely stocks in the news, or stocks experiencing a sharp flow of new information.

Largest Rel Ranges: First, we express each stock’s daily range as a % of the 20 day average range, and then choose the 10 with the largest values of that measure. These are the stocks with the largest daily ranges, relative to their own typical daily ranges.

Gap Analysis shows stocks with open gaps (today’s high < yesterday’s low or today’s low > yesterday’s high) remaining.

Stocks with Open Gaps (for the Day): A, AAL, ADI, ADP, AEM, AFL, AGCO, ALSN, AMBA, AME, AMTD, APH, ASHR, ATVI, BA, BBEP, BC, BERY, BG, BK, BMS, BRFS, BRK.B, BUD, BWA, BX, CA, CAR, CAT, CBG, CDK, CHKP, CI, CME, CMI, COF, COP, CSC, CSCO, CTRX, CXO, DAL, DAN, DB, DEI, DGX, DLPH, DNOW, DWA, DYN, EA, EGN, EMN, EMR, ETFC, ETN, EWG, EXH, FBHS, FISV, FSL, GENE(F), GLW, GM, GNC, GS, HAL, HCP, HD, HDS, HOLX, HON, HTZ(E), HUM, HZNP, IBM, INFA, INTU, ITW, IYE, JAH, JCI, JPM, KAR, KMI, KMX, LEG, LM, LMCA, LMT, LNC, LNCO, LOW, LVLT, MCO, MDLZ, MDT, MET, MMC, MMM, MS, MSI, MWV, MYL, NBIX, NKE, NLSN, NOW, NUE, NWL, NXPI, OHI, OI, PANW, PAYX, PFG, PH, PNC, PNR, RKT, RLGY, ROK, SAP, SAVE, SCHW, SE, SEE, SNE, SNV, SPR, SSE, STJ, SWK, SYK, TDC, TGT, THC, TRN, TROW, TRV, TTM, TXT, TYC, UA, UN, UNH, UPS, UTX, VIAB, VOD, VTV, WETF, XEC, XLE, XOM, XON

 

For more information about Waverly Advisors please click here.

2015-03-30 12:06:40

Posted by
Neil Azous
Founder & Managing Member
Rareview Macro LLC
Contributor

Macro

Sight Beyond Sight: China Trade Idea

While the Hang Seng Composite Index (symbol: HSCI) closed +1.95% and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (symbol: HSCEI) gained +3.43%, what we find interesting is that both indexes finally broke to a new 2015 high. As a reminder, the offshore benchmarks have been watching the onshore China indices trade parabolic for a long time. The key point here is that the offshore indices are finally reacting to what is happening on the mainland.

It should be a matter of time (i.e. the start of a new quarter?) before offshore investors look to play catch up via Hong Kong H-Shares.

Take a look at the illustration below of the on- and off-shore equity markets. The Hang Seng China AH Premium index tracks the price premium (or discount) of A-shares to H-shares. The higher the index, the higher premium of A-shares over H-shares, and vice-versa. As you can see, the A-shares have been the clear winner for quite some time.

From a market sentiment and valuation standpoint here is what others are saying:

  • H-shares (i.e. HSCEI Index) gauge will reach 14,000 by the end of 2015, spurred by policy easing. (Deutsche Bank AG, strategist Yuliang Chang forecast)
  • The CSRC’s latest policy move may lure local investors to enter the Hong Kong equity market because A shares are at a “bubble” stage. (UBS Group AG analyst Wenjie Lu)
  • Shanghai index trades at 14.4x 12-month projected earnings, compared with 8.4x for the H-shares measure. (Bloomberg)

For the full details on how we chose to express a view on this new development, see today's edition of Sight Beyond Sight.

 

Sight Beyond Sight® is a global macro trading newsletter written daily by Neil Azous. With close to two decades of institutional experience across asset classes, Neil interprets the day-to-day economic, policy and strategy developments and provides actionable trading ideas for investors. We invite clients of Interactive Brokers to sign up for a free trial in Account Management. If you are not a client of IB, you can sign up for a free trial by visiting our website.

 

This article is from Rareview Macro and is being posted with Rareview Macro’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Rareview Macro and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

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The material (including articles and commentary) provided on IB Traders' Insight is offered for informational purposes only. The posted material is NOT a recommendation by Interactive Brokers (IB) that you or your clients should contract for the services of or invest with any of the independent advisors or hedge funds or others who may post on IB Traders' Insight or invest with any advisors or hedge funds. The advisors, hedge funds and other analysts who may post on IB Traders' Insight are independent of IB and IB does not make any representations or warranties concerning the past or future performance of these advisors, hedge funds and others or the accuracy of the information they provide. Interactive Brokers does not conduct a "suitability review" to make sure the trading of any advisor or hedge fund or other party is suitable for you.

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