IB Traders’ Insight

View The Latest Videos View Videos

1 2 3 4 5 2 1871


Stocks

Edison - UK Sparks: EasyJet Reports 15m Impact Of Gatwick Closure


EasyJet suffered a £15m hit from Gatwick airport’s shutdown due to reported drone sightings just before Christmas. The incident led to the airline cancelling 400 flights, affecting 82,000 passengers. EasyJet says in a trading statement for its first quarter that the incident cost £10m in payments for customer welfare costs and had an impact of about £5m on revenues.

Total revenues in the quarter increased by 13.7% to £1.29bn, while passenger numbers were up 15.1% to 21.6m, driven by an 18.2% increase in capacity to 24.1m seats. Chief executive Johan Lundgren says bookings for the first half of 2019 remain “encouraging despite the lack of certainty around Brexit for customers”. Second half bookings continue to be ahead of last year and the company says full-year pre-tax profits will be "broadly in line" with expectations.

Haydn Mursell is to leave his position as chief executive of construction and outsourcing company Kier Group. Kier report he will depart with immediate effect, following its recent £264m rights issue. Woodford Investment Management, which has a 14% holding in the company, had raised questions over Mr Mursell's position after a a low take-up of the issue. Non-executive chairman Philip Cox will serve as executive chairman until a successor is found.

Mr Cox says the company believes “now is the right time” for a new leader to take Kier “forward to the next stage of its development”. In a separate update, Kier says it is confident that trading will meet expectations.

Retailer Dixons Carphone says in a Christmas trading statement that group like-for-like revenues increased by 1% over the ten weeks to 5 January. The electrical division experienced a 2% boost in the UK and Ireland. However, mobile phone sales fell by 7% in the two countries on a like-for-like basis and were 12% lower overall. International sales were 5% ahead over the period.

Chief executive Alex Baldock says peak trading was “solid,” producing “record sales against a tough backdrop”. The group’s guidance for full-year pre-tax profits remains unchanged at £300m.

Pets at Home, the vets and pets chain, says in a third-quarter trading statement that total revenues increased by 6.3% to £237m in the 12 weeks to 3 January, with like-for-like group sales up 5.1%. Retail sales rose 5.5% to £213m, while vet group revenues were up 13.6% at £23.8m.

Chief executive Peter Pritchard says the Saturday before Christmas was the biggest trading day in the group’s history. The group says its outlook for full-year results remains in line with its expectations.

Finally, the online financial trading firm IG Group Holdings has announced an 18% fall in interim operating profits to £113m on net trading revenues down 6% at £251m. Chief executive June Felix says the company will return to growth after its 2018-2019 financial year.

Andrew Cave

---

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.  Visit www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com for more information.

Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Our research is a marketing communication as defined by the FCA, this communication only contains information that is an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit as defined under COBS2.3A19(5).

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Edison and is being posted with Edison’s permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Edison and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


22398




Macro

GUOSEN Closing Bell (January 22)


MARKET

China equities slumped, as market optimism faded soon after US formally requested to extradite Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou. The new apparently increased uncertainty on trade dispute. No sector gained, while Steel and Healthcare shares were the worst performers. Combined turnover for both markets was CNY 276 bn, down 10.8% dod.

 

 

Close

% Change

Vol (bn CNY)

%YTD

Shanghai

2579.70

-1.18

123.00

3.44

Shenzhen

7516.79

-1.44

155.64

3.83

CSI 300

3143.32

-1.33

78.15

4.41

ChiNext

1252.24

-1.77

47.34

0.14

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

 

 

 

 

Downward-leading

Steel

600058

Healthcare

300143

 

NEWS

*U.S. to Formally Request Extradition of Huawei’s Meng: Globe and Mail. The U.S. has notified Canada that it will formally request to extradite Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou, the Canadian ambassador to the U.S. David MacNaughton told the Globe and Mail on Monday. (Caixin)

*President Xi Jinping told top Chinese leaders that major risks must be prevented to ensure a healthy economy and prevent social instability. (Caixin)

 

FUND FLOW

 

Click here for more information about Guosen.

This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


22397




Macro

Eurex: Plan C?


Morning Briefing January 22nd 2018

The three key releases on Tuesday occur early doors, as the U.S. remains on shutdown. At 0900GMT is the ECB Bank Lending survey is published. The UK's November labour report is due at 0930GMT and Germany's January ZEW Index is at 1000GMT.

The only two public events of the day see ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos participating in the ECOFIN meeting in Brussels and the BOJ starting the first of its two day policy meeting.  

The UK labour report is expected to see an unchanged reading in earnings and the unemployment from October. In October, the unemployment rate was 4.1% and average weekly earnings including and excluding bonuses were 3.3% on a 3M Y/Y basis.

Over to Germany and the ZEW current conditions index is anticipated to move down to an index reading of 43.8 from 45.3 in December. The current expectations index is also expected by the MNI median to move down to -18.5 from  17.5 in December.

Global Economic Trading Calendar

Markets

US TSYS: T-Notes have moved to fresh session highs on the back of a Globe & Mail report that suggests that the U.S. is set to proceed in seeking the extradition of the Huawei CFO from Canada, triggering some modest risk-off flows in broader asset classes.  - The belly has outperformed in cash trade, with 30-Year paper lagging after the elongated holiday weekend.  - Sino-U.S. trade relations and the U.S. gov't shutdown continue to provide the pre-eminent issues, with the Fed in blackout ahead of next week's MonPol decision.

BUNDS: German fixed income futures have edged higher in early Asia-Pacific trade, with little in the way of news flow and broader market themes apparent thus far.  - Domestic data will be headlined by the PMI, ZEW & IFO surveys this week (ZEW is due today), with more focus likely to be placed on the rhetoric employed at this week's ECB MonPol decision, the broader EZ PMI data & Brexit developments.  - UK PM May's Plan B Brexit looks a lot like Plan A, with chief EU negotiator Barnier pushing back against any amendments to the Irish backstop, despite this, the PM seemingly remains upbeat re: the prospect of negotiations with the EU.

JGBS: JGB futures registered fresh highs in the early part of the afternoon after the space traded in a fairly limited manner during the morning session. The contract last trades 9 ticks higher, drawing some support from a Globe & Mail report that suggests that the U.S. is set to proceed in seeking the extradition of the Huawei CFO from Canada.  - Modest flattening apparent across the curve. The short end was perhaps limited ahead of the 1-5 Year liquidity enhancement auction, although the results of the supply were strong enough, and shorter date paper continues to underperform.  - A negative session for the Nikkei 225 will have also provided some support.

AUSSIE BONDS: The contracts have ticked to best levels on the back of the Globe & Mail report that suggests that the U.S. is set to proceed in seeking the extradition of the Huawei CFO from Canada.  - The space continues to operate in a relatively tight range, after meandering along for most of the session.

STOCKS: The major Asia-Pacific regional equity indices struggled for upward momentum Tuesday, after Chinese President Xi pointed to the need for Chinese policymakers to monitor risks to the economy, while reports did the rounds re: the existence of additional North Korean missile test sites and as the Globe & Mail reported that the U.S. will proceed with formal extradition of Huawei CFO Meng from Canada.

OIL: The major oil benchmarks struggled overnight, as risk appetite was dented.  - The Globe & Mail has reported that "Alberta Premier Rachel Notley is expected to announce a $2-billion private investment in a partial upgrading facility designed to allow the province's oil sector to squeeze more crude into overcrowded pipelines." The announcement is exp. Tuesday. This comes after BBG pointed to modest easing in the province's oil curtailment & rationing.  - Elsewhere TransCanada said that it will start clearing trees and foliage next week for the northern route of its planned Keystone XL pipeline.

GOLD: Gold shed a couple of dollars overnight and last deals at $1,278, failing to take advantage of the broader risk-off theme.

FOREX: Modest risk-off flows came to the fore in the second half of the Asia-Pacific trade as the Globe & Mail reported that the U.S. will proceed with formal extradition of Huawei CFO Meng, whose December arrest in Vancouver triggered a protracted diplomatic crisis.  - JPY started the session on the front foot, as Japanese Nikkei 225 moved into negative territory (last ~0.5% lower on the day), and gained traction on the back of aforementioned risk-off theme.  - The Antipodeans showed some initial weakness, but NZD recovered from worst levels, leaving AUD as the sole underperformer.  - GBP struggled for clear direction, while markets absorbed fresh Brexit headlines. The Telegraph reported that Labour Party leader Corbyn has backed a Commons vote that could result in a second Brexit referendum, while up to 40 gov't ministers were said to have threatened their resignations if they are forbidden to support a backbench amendment formally blocking a no-deal Brexit.

Technical Analysis

BUND TECHS: (H19) UPTREND RESUMES

Uptrend support from the Oct lows and the 21-dma have been recovered following Friday's break, which allows the longer term uptrend to resume. Bulls now target the Jan 3 high at 165.10, above which would solidify the longer term uptrend and open the Sep 2017 high at 165.83. Bears target Friday's lows at 163.84 initially, below which would open the Dec 27 low at 163.15 ahead of the Dec 13 low.

EUROSTOXX50: CONSOLIDATING BULLISH BREAK

Eurostoxx remains above the above the key 3100 level and broken down trendline resistance following Friday break well. This keeps the outlook bullish with the next upside target coming in at the Dec 3 high at 3244.98 ahead of a run at the Sep 7 low now acting as resistance. Bears need to retake the 3100 level to turn the outlook neutral and open the 21-dma. Below here would open the 3000 level ahead of a retest of the Dec 27 low at 2908.70.

Eurex Futures Market Close

Eurex. An exchange for the better.

As one of the world’s leading derivatives exchanges we offer a broad range of international benchmark products.

For example, we operate one of the most liquid fixed income markets, provide the broadest range of equity index derivatives worldwide and are the platform of choice for European equity derivatives. In addition we cover derivatives on dividends, volatility and ETFs. All on one single platform.

Innovative and reliable technology supplies about 400 participants and 7,500 traders in 35 countries with access to more than 2,000 products across nine traditional and alternative asset classes.

For further information please visit www.eurexchange.com

MNI

MNI subscribers make critical decisions with deeper insight and greater confidence. Pinpoint information and market-moving interviews let them react instantly to market changes and more importantly, anticipate future market moves. MNI reporters are market professionals in the news business. They work like journalists but think like traders. When interviewing Fed officials, our reporters ask the same questions you would ask. They cover the angles you would cover. Write the way you read.

MNI’s news services are now available via the IB Trader platform. Please click here to view our provider page or contact MNI directly on sales@mni-news.com or +1 212 669 6400 for our Americas sales team and +44 207 862 7408 for our EMEA sales team.

This article is from Eurex Exchange and is being posted with Eurex Exchange’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Eurex Exchange and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


22396




Technical Analysis

Tradable Patterns - Nasdaq100 (NQ) Testing 50% Fib Retrace of Sep-Dec Fall


The Nasdaq100 (NQ) is tiring in today's Asia morning, as it nears the end of a month long ascending wedge (on the 4hr chart).  Significantly, NQ is bumping up against the 50% Fib retrace of the September to December fall, coinciding with downtrend resistance (on the daily and weekly chart).  By viewing the monthly sliding chart on the homepage (updated at the beginning of each month), one sees the Nasdaq100 trying to bounce off a major uptrend support that began mid 2009.  My longer term view for 2019 is bearish, and expect the current bounce to run out of steam either today, or to grind higher to the 61.8% Fib retrace of the September to December slide by late this week.  The bottomish weekly RSI, Stochastics and MACD are misleading, and can quickly turn lower once the current dead cat bounce ends.  I am looking to enter short in the red zone (of the daily chart), but will short at the market once the daily MACD green line flattens, targeting the green zone for early next week.  The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I sometimes set my stops tighter).

Nasdaq100 (CME NQ Mar19) Weekly/Daily/4hr

Click here for today's technical analysis on S&P500, Wheat

As seen on Bloomberg, Refinitiv (Thomson Reuters), Factset, Interactive Brokers, Inside Futures, Amazon, Liquid (Quoine) and Zerohedge, Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures, spot FX and cryptocurrency markets can be analyzed to enhance trading performance. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/ (commodities and equity indices) and spot FX markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. Crypto Weekly Outlook offers technical analysis on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Ethereum (ETHUSD) and Ripple (XRPUSD) and attempts to provide clues as to what might happen in the coming week.  For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


22395




Macro

GUOSEN Closing Bell (January 21)


MARKET

China equities pulled back from morning’s gains, as China’s economic stat suggested resilience. Investors wagered trade tensions ultimately will subside and policy makers will refrain from growth-damaging monetary tightening. Steel and Food& Beverage sectors led the gains, while Agriculture and Real Estate shares were the worst performers. Combined turnover for both markets was CNY 309.4 bn, down 3.86% dod.

 

 

Close

% Change

Vol (bn CNY)

%YTD

Shanghai

2610.51

0.56

139.92

4.68

Shenzhen

7626.24

0.59

173.20

5.34

CSI 300

3185.64

0.55

105.54

5.81

ChiNext

1274.79

0.42

49.28

1.94

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

Telecom

002848

Food& Beverage

600084

Downward-leading

Agriculture

300087

Real Estate

000797

 

NEWS

*Government bonds fall, with the benchmark 10-year yield rising the most in a month, after China’s 4Q GDP data matched economists’ estimates. Onshore markets: Yield on 10-year sovereign debt rises 3bps to 3.14% as of 10:50am in Shanghai. (Bloomberg)

FUND FLOW

Click here for more information about Guosen.

This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


22394




1 2 3 4 5 2 1871

Disclosures

We appreciate your feedback. If you have any questions or comments about IB Traders' Insight please contact ibti@ibkr.com.

The material (including articles and commentary) provided on IB Traders' Insight is offered for informational purposes only. The posted material is NOT a recommendation by Interactive Brokers (IB) that you or your clients should contract for the services of or invest with any of the independent advisors or hedge funds or others who may post on IB Traders' Insight or invest with any advisors or hedge funds. The advisors, hedge funds and other analysts who may post on IB Traders' Insight are independent of IB and IB does not make any representations or warranties concerning the past or future performance of these advisors, hedge funds and others or the accuracy of the information they provide. Interactive Brokers does not conduct a "suitability review" to make sure the trading of any advisor or hedge fund or other party is suitable for you.

Securities or other financial instruments mentioned in the material posted are not suitable for all investors. The material posted does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs and is not intended as a recommendation to you of any particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. Before making any investment or trade, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Any information provided by third parties has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate; however, IB does not warrant its accuracy and assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions.

Any information posted by employees of IB or an affiliated company is based upon information that is believed to be reliable. However, neither IB nor its affiliates warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy. IB does not make any representations or warranties concerning the past or future performance of any financial instrument. By posting material on IB Traders' Insight, IB is not representing that any particular financial instrument or trading strategy is appropriate for you.