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Technical Analysis

Tradable Patterns - Cocoa (CC) Testing 5 Month Downtrend Resistance


Cocoa (CC) rallied roughly 2.5% yesterday, reversing the prior day's profittaking and closing above 2200.  Although CC is bumping up against a 2 week upchannel resistance (on the 4hr chart), CC will be increasingly bought on notable dips this week as CC threatens to break above downtrend resistance (on the daily chart) coinciding with the weekly chart's downtrend/downchannel/descending wedge resistance and horizontal resistance.  The weekly, daily and 4hr RSI, Stochastics and MACD are bottomish, rallying or consolidating recent gains.  I am flat after profitably closing longs yesterday and am looking at re-entering long in the green zone (of the daily chart), targeting the red zone by Friday.  The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I sometimes set my stops tighter).
 
Cocoa (ICE CC Dec18) Weekly/Daily/4hr
 
 
Click here for today's technical analysis on EURUSD, GBPUSD
 
As seen on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset, Interactive Brokers, Inside Futures and Zerohedge, Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures and spot FX markets can be analyzed to enhance trading performance. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/Eurex/SGX  futures (commodities, equity indices, and interest rates), spot FX and cryptocurrency markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

 

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


 

20991




Macro

Eurex: Asia Stocks Buoyed By U.S., Brexit Summit & Fed Minutes Due


Morning Briefing October 17th 2018

Wednesday sees a fairly limited data session, with the three key releases coming from the UK at 0830GMT with September's CPI reading, the US housing starts and building permits for September at 1230GMT and Japan's September trade balance at 2350GMT. The minutes from the Fed's late September meeting will also be closely watched.

ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet speaking in Madrid at 0730GMT.

The UK CPI reading is anticipated to come down from a six-month high of 2.7% to 2.6% in September. MNI analysis points to a continued theme of air and sea fares being particularly elevated in August and tempering in September.

The seasonally adjusted pace of housing starts is expected to slow to a 1.230 million annual rate in September after moving up slightly in August. The NAHB index held steady at 67 in September. As inventories remain tight, builders will likely find it advantageous to boost output. The pace of building permits is expected to rise to a 1.266 million annual rate after falling sharply in August. Rebuilding following Hurricane Florence should lift permits and starts in coming months.

Speaking at 1610GMT is US Federal Reserve Bank Governor Lael Brainard speaking in Boston.

Next up, at 1630GMT, ECB Governing Council member Jens Weidmann speaks in Berlin.

At 1800GMT, the Federal Reserve releasing the minutes from its September meeting.

The trade balance in Japan is expected to better from a deficit of JPY438 bn to JPY28.7 bn.

Global Economic Trading Calendar

Markets

US TSYS: The leg higher in U.S. stocks Tuesday, followed by a buoyant session for Asia-Pacific stocks thus far (excluding China, where the indices have unwound the bulk of their gains), has kept a lid on Tsys during Asia-Pacific trade allowing yields to rise by ~0.5bp across the curve at writing.

JGBS: JGB futures briefly breached Tuesday's low in early dealing, before edging higher, in what has been a limited session for the space. - The shorter end of the curve drew modest support ahead of the latest round of BOJ Rinban operations, which covered the 1-10 Year buckets. The offer to cover ratios of the operations can be found below: - 1-3 Year 3.64 (prev. 2.90), 3-5 Year 2.21 (prev. 2.18), 5-10 Year 2.73 (prev. 2.28). - Elsewhere 20-Year paper experienced some modest underperformance ahead of tomorrow's JGB auction covering the sector, before cash yields finished the morning session largely unchanged.

AUSSIE BONDS: Futures have stuck to a tight range, brushing off comments from RBA Dep. Gov Debelle, as he suggested that unemployment may fall further than it has done in previous instances before wages pick up. Debelle then participated in a Q&A, with BBG covering the comments, reiterating that the "RBA is paying close attention to falling house prices," stressing that the "drag on the economy from lower house prices is still somewhat unclear." - The domestic 3-/10-Year cash yield differential continues to hover just above 65bp, while the AU/U.S. 10-Year yield spread also operates in familiar territory at ~-46.5bp. The latest AOFM auction of the 2.75% 21 November 2029 Bond was average, and fairly non-descript. - CAF launched a 5-Year A$ Bond, as overseas players remain active in issuance.

STOCKS: The leg higher in U.S. stocks Tuesday has resulted in a buoyant session for Asia-Pacific stocks thus far (excluding China). - The Nikkei 225 has drawn additional support from USD/JPY operating back above Y112.00, trading 1.5% higher at writing, after trend line support provided the benchmark with a base to build from on Tuesday. - Chinese stocks have suffered on the back of another shaky session for the Chinext index, with the CSI 300 trading 0.2% lower in the morning session, after adding over 1.0% at the open. - The Hang Seng is closed for a market holiday. - The ASX 200 added 1.2%, with all of the major sectors, excluding materials, moving higher. - U.S. index futures trade unch. to a touch softer. A bumper earnings release from Netflix after-market propelled futures to session highs late Tuesday.

OIL: WTI & Brent operate around settlement levels. - This comes after reports pointed to a surprise 2.13mn bbl headline crude stock drawdown in the latest API inventory release & an uptick in U.S. equity index futures that pushed crude higher late Tuesday, with positive risk sentiment underscoring the space in NY hours.

GOLD: Gold has stuck to a tight range once again overnight, hovering around $1125/oz after a couple of runs at the $1236/oz pivot area in recent sessions. Yesterday's U.S. stock rally put the dampeners on bulls' hopes for the day, with bears looking to the 55-DMA as their initial target.

FOREX: It has been a sedate session for the majors overnight, with little in the way of news flow & Hong Kong observing a holiday. - USD/JPY consolidated Tuesday's risk-on induced gains, trading at Y112.30 last, as buoyant Japanese equities leant support. Bulls need a break of Y112.50 to challenge the 50% retracement of October's downtrend at Y113.09. - AUD/USD stuck to a tight range, dealing 5 or so pips softer last at $0.7135, brushing off comments from RBA Dep. Gov Debelle, as he suggested that unemployment may fall further than it has done in previous instances before wages pick up. Debelle then participated in a Q&A, with BBG covering the comments. On the AUD he noted that it would be "helpful for our economy if the fed rate pushes the A$ lower." NZD/USD ran into resistance in the form of the 50-DMA ($0.6595), last $0.6585. This allowed AUD/NZD to edge back above its 200-DMA (NZ$1.0832), after trading below the level early on. - The yuan underperformed alongside Chinese equities.

Technical Analysis

BUND TECHS: (Z18) Neutral For Now

Dec-18 Bunds were unable to overcome Monday's highs yesterday which keeps the outlook neutral. A break above 158.87 would bring the 55-dma into play at 159.47, above which would give bulls the upper hand and target the Sep 12 high at 159.78. Bears look to close below 157.33 to extend the downtrend targeting the Apr 24 low at 157.43 on the continuation chart.

EUROSTOXX50: Bulls Look To Recover 3000

Eurostoxx50 recovered some losses yesterday to bring the 3000 level back into focus. Above here would shift the outlook back to neutral and allow a challenge of the Aug 28 high, above which would shift the outlook positive. For bears, the next downside target comes in at the bear channel bottom at 3150. Below here would bring up trendline support from the 2012 lows into play.

Eurex Futures Market Close

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MNI

MNI subscribers make critical decisions with deeper insight and greater confidence. Pinpoint information and market-moving interviews let them react instantly to market changes and more importantly, anticipate future market moves. MNI reporters are market professionals in the news business. They work like journalists but think like traders. When interviewing Fed officials, our reporters ask the same questions you would ask. They cover the angles you would cover. Write the way you read.

MNI’s news services are now available via the IB Trader platform. Please click here to view our provider page or contact MNI directly on sales@mni-news.com or +1 212 669 6400 for our Americas sales team and +44 207 862 7408 for our EMEA sales team.

This article is from Eurex Exchange and is being posted with Eurex Exchange’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Eurex Exchange and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


20990




Futures

Blue Line Futures - FX Rundown


Euro (December)

Session close: Settled at 1.1634, down 6.5 ticks

Fundamentals: Economic data from Europe this morning left much to be desired. First, German Imports were below expectations and Italian CPI was soft. Most importantly, these were followed by harshly deteriorating ZEW German Sentiment as it retreated to match the worst level since August 2012 on international trade dispute, slipping German exports and fears of a “hard Brexit”. Remarkably, the Euro only fell about a quarter of a penny on the ZEW miss and held ground through the session. In fact, it spiked to a new session as Brexit comments were in the air when U.S Industrial Production missed. Fed Chair Powell today referred to a “hard Brexit” as having the ability to harm U.S growth. All in all, it was a quiet session and though the Euro finished in the red, it could have been much, much worse. At the close, newly appointed San Francisco Fed President Daly said that inflation is at the Fed’s 2% target, employment is low, and growth is “robust”. She added that there is never just one ingredient that causes a stock market correction and showed little concern for such.

Technicals: The Euro is certainly trying to build a floor above our first key support at 1.1602. Truly though, major three-star resistance at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

 

Yen (December)

Session close: Settled at .8955, down 24 ticks

Fundamentals: Nikkei futures gained 600 points today and U.S benchmarks followed suit. After a poor close in U.S hours, the tide quickly turned at the onset of Asian hours and this pressured the Yen through the session. A large miss on German Sentiment did not damper the tape and the Dollar firmed as the session unfolded; a very unfavorable stew for the Yen. There is no data out of Japan tonight.

Technicals: Price action is retreating in a manner that one should either be bearish or out of the way until things stabilize and today’s move lower forms a bull flag. The Yen failed to hold out above resistance at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

 

Aussie (December)

Session close: Settled at .7143, unchanged

Fundamentals: The Aussie did not participate in today’s global risk-on environment and this is concerning in the near-term. Last night’s RBA Minutes pointed to the weakness in the Aussie as ultimately a self-fulfilling prophecy, as it will repair economic damage. For now, officials decided to keep rates steady to build confidence, however, the next move is more likely to be although there is no case for adjustment at this time. China CPI data last night was in line with expectations while PPI missed by a tenth.

Technicals: The Aussie failed to move out above major three-star resistance at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

 

Canadian (December)

Session close: Settled at .7737, up 27.5 ticks

Fundamentals: The Canadian Dollar finished at a one and a half week high as the global risk-on sentiment provided a tailwind for what was already shaping up to be a bullish picture for the currency. With traders eyeing next week’s Bank of Canada meeting, bets on a hawkish rhetoric or even a rate hike have fueled the Canadian from a formidable technical double bottom. Crude Oil has been steady above $70 and with NAFTA in the rear-view mirror traders are finding good long-term value down here. Remember, we have said all year long that when the tide turns, the Canadian, among all major currencies against the U.S Dollar, is best positioned to capitalize. Tomorrow, August Manufacturing Sales are due at 7:30 am CT; this number may have some lingering effects from the delays in NAFTA.

Technicals: With a strong session today under its belt, we are taking a more Bullish approach on the Canadian as long as it can continue to close above ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

This article is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with iBlue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


20989




Securities Lending

Interactive Brokers - ETF Shorts vs Non-Shorts


Trading on margin is only for sophisticated investors with high risk tolerance. You may lose more than your initial investment. For additional information regarding margin loan rates, see ibkr.com/interest

The analysis in this material is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


20985




Securities Lending

Interactive Brokers - SLB Update: Hardest to Borrow


The following table shows the 15 hardest to borrow securities during the week of 10/9/18-10/15/18.

Trading on margin is only for sophisticated investors with high risk tolerance. You may lose more than your initial investment. For additional information regarding margin loan rates, see ibkr.com/interest

The analysis in this material is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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