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Macro

GUOSEN Closing Bell (August 18)


MARKET

Chinese stocks closed mixed, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index ended at 3268.72 points. The A-shares stocks erased the loss in the morning and closed flat today, as PingAn Insurance surged after releasing solid semiannual report and China home price growth slowed to eleven-month low. Real Estate and Transportation sectors led the gains; while Non-ferrous Metal and Military sector led the falls. Combined turnover for both markets was CNY 479.6bn, down 8.65% dod.

 

Close

% Change

Vol (bn CNY)

%YTD

Shanghai

3268.72

0.01

218.44

5.32

Shenzhen

10614.08

-0.37

261.47

4.29

CSI 300

3724.67

0.09

123.08

12.53

ChiNext

1821.80

-0.63

73.89

-7.15

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

Real Estate

000931

Transportation

600125

Downward-leading

Non-ferrous Metal

600392

Military

300397

 

NEWS

*China’s Central Bank injects 20 billion Yuan net via reverse repos into banking system. China’s central bank will sell 70 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase agreements (reverse repos) and 50 billion yuan of 14-day reverse repos in the open market today. Meanwhile, a total of 100 billion yuan of reverse repos is due to mature today. (Caixin)

*China home price growth slows to eleven-month low. The cost of new housing in China fell into single digit growth and the slowest pace in eleven months in July as both purchasing activity and investment broadly softened. The cost of new housing in 70 major cities rose 9.7 per cent year on year in July, according to a weighted average from Reuters based on data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics.  In year-on-year terms prices rose in every one of the 70 cities surveyed last month, with only Shenzhen notching a pace of growth below 1 per cent. Growth cooled off in a number of top-tier cities as well: Beijing saw a rise of 8.9 per cent (down 1.8 percentage points from June), while prices in Shanghai were up 7.3 per cent (down 1.3 percentage points). (Financial Times)

 

FUND FLOW

 

Click here for more information about Guosen.

This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


14275




Macro

Asia Stocks Fall in Risk Off Trade After Spain Terrorist Attack


Morning Briefing August 18th 2017


The European calendar gets underway early Friday, with the data calendar kicking off at 0600GMT, when the German July PPI data is released.

At 0800GMT, the EMU current account numbers will cross the wires.

Bundesbank Board member Carl-Ludwig Thiele speaks at the Lower Saxony Sparkasse day, in Hanover, Germany, also from 0800GMT.

The euro area June construction production data will be released by Eurostat at 0900GMT.

Across the Atlantic, the US calendar gets underway at 1230GMT, with the release of the Canadian July CPI data.

The main US release comes at 1400GMT, when the University of Michigan Sentiment Index is released.

The University of Michigan Sentiment index is expected to move up to 94.0 in early-August from 93.4 in July.

At the same time, the BLS State Employment and the Advance Quarterly Services Survey will be released.

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Rob Kaplan will participate in a moderated Q&A session at the  Dallas County Community College District Conference Day 2017 in Dallas, with audience Q&A, starting at 1415GMT.

The St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast will be published at 1500GMT, with the NY Fed GDP Nowcast set for release at 1515GMT.

Global Economic Trading Calendar


Markets


SNAPSHOT: Below gives key levels of markets in the second half of the Asia-Pac session: - Nikkei 225 down 184.94 points at 19517.47 - ASX 200 down 40.508 points at 5738.7 - Shanghai Comp. down 9.336 points at 3260.27 - JGB 10-Yr future up 6 ticks at 150.66, JGB 10-Yr yield down 1.1bp at 0.043% - Aussie 3-Yr future up 2 ticks at 98.05, Aussie 3-Yr yield down 1.5bp at 1.975% - Aussie 10-Yr future up 2.5 ticks at 97.385, Aussie 10-Yr yield down 2.4bp at 2.619% - US 10-Yr future down 0.5 ticks at 126.22+, US 10-Yr yield up 1.57bp at 2.201%.

US TSY/RECAP: Treasuries ended Thurs firmer after a weaker start, curves flatter, long end leading risk-off rally buying following latest terrorist attack in Barcelona. T-Notes open Asia up 2 ticks at 126.25+, 10-Year yield last 2.185%.

BOJ: The Bank of Japan offers to buy total Y1.05tln of JGB's from the market, all sizes unchanged from the previous operations. - Y280bln of 1-3 Year JGB's - Y330bln of 3-5 Year JGB's  - Y440bln of 5-10 Year JGB's - Also offers to buy Y750bln of T-Bills.

AUSSIE BONDS: The Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM) sells A$500mln of 2% Dec 2021 bonds, issue #TB151.- Average Yield: 2.1077% (Prev. 2.1996%) - High Yield: 2.1100% (Prev. 2.2000%); 6.1% allotted at high yield: (Prev. 74.8%) - Bid/Cover: 5.6200 (Prev. 6.5800)- 27 bids (Prev. 40), 10 successful (Prev. 7), 4 allocated in full (Prev. 2) The 2.00% Dec 2021 bonds are part of the basket that underlie the 3-Year future.

US EURODLR FUTURES: Marginally higher/session highs in the fronts, red and greens, long end drops off slightly continuing the contrary move from the US session amid digesting fairly dovish Fed speaker comments and US political news. Thin summer volumes, especially in early trade, picking up slightly as we head into Europe.

STOCKS: Japanese stocks went into the lunch break in negative territory, the Nikkei 225 currently down 201.10pts at 19501.53. -USD/JPY is staying below 110 at 109.44, the dollar suffered after the rumour Gary Cohn was to resign as well as the terror attack on Barcelona, it weakened for the second day as Federal Reserve minutes showed concern inflation is still low. The stronger Yen has encouraged buyers today. -Andrew Clarke, an Asian equities trader said 'Australia is doing remarkably well, only down 51pts, I guess though they have a slight hedge to any of these situations (Barcelona,North Korea tensions) as they have a lot of mining and natural resource stocks.' Australia data yesterday showed full time employment dropped in July which could be a contributor to the decline also, the ASX exchange sits at 5727.6.

OIL: Oil is flat in Asia-Pac trade, WTI last down $0.04 at $47.05. Oil finished in the green on Thursday after intiially falling early in the US session on even more US political shenanigans, but recovered before taking another dip as risk markets sold off after reports of the terrorist attack in Barcelona. - WTI is down 3.6% so far this week, on track for the third consecutive week of decline despite a sharp drop in inventories this week.

GOLD: Gold is down slightly in Asia-Pac, the yellow metal last down $1.11 at $1,287.04. Gold moved within a range on Thursday, and was fairly subdued despite the US political goings on with the rumoured resignation of economic adviser Cohn (later confirmed to be false) and the terrorist attack in Barcelona. Gold moved between $1,280 and $1,290 on Thursday and has shown no sign of breaking out during Asia despite broad declines in equity markets and slight extension in the decline in the USD.

FOREX: Political angst surrounding the Trump administration and souring risk appetite following the terrorist attack in Barcelona continued to drive markets during the Asia-Pacific region, regional equities were all in negative territory and the yen was the modest winner in currency markets. Dollar-yen marched lower from Y109.57 to Y109.30 before recovering on Tokyo-fix related demand, last at Y109.45. Aussie bounced from an early low of $0.7870 to trade to $0.7900 as intraday specs squared up Aussie-yen shorts. Aussie was last at $0.7897. Euro-dollar traded in a $1.1709 to $1.1736 range and was last at $1.1733. Meanwhile, Cable carved out a $1.2863 to $1.2889 range, last at $1.2887.

Technical analysis


BUND: (U17) Bears Need Close Below 164.08


*RES 4: 165.44 High June 26
*RES 3: 164.92 Falling daily TL
*RES 2: 164.79 Low June 21 now resistance
*RES 1: 164.64 High Aug 10

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 164.32

*SUP 1: 164.08 High Aug 15 now support
*SUP 2: 163.69 Hourly support Aug 16
*SUP 3: 163.59 Hourly resistance Aug 17 now support
*SUP 4: 163.51 Daily Bull channel base    

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back to key DMAs and the bull channel base has taken its toll with a close above the key 164.25 resistance that now sees immediate focus on 164.64-92 where the Bollinger top (164.83) is noted. Above 164.92 is needed to shift focus to 165.44-55 where June highs are located. Bears now need a close below 164.08 to ease immediate bullish pressure and below the 21-DMA (163.04) to hint at a decent correction with below 162.36 confirming.
 

EUROSTOXX50: Bear Channel Remains Intact

*RES 4: 3524.68 100-DMA
*RES 3: 3504.49 55-DMA, Daily Bear channel top
*RES 2: 3497.29 High Aug 16
*RES 1: 3484.66 High Aug 17

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3461.97

*SUP 1: 3454.26 Low Aug 15
*SUP 2: 3435.22 Hourly support Aug 14
*SUP 3: 3424.81 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*SUP 4: 3391.30 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Once again attempts to break higher have been stifled by layers of resistance 3504.49-3539.48 where key DMAs and the bear channel top are situated. Initial support is now noted at 3454.26 with bears now needing a close below to gain traction below the 21-DMA (3470.41) and confirm focus on 3390.49-3391.30 where Aug lows and the 200-DMA are situated. Bulls continue to look for a close above 3539.48 to end bearish hopes.

Eurex Futures Market Close


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This article is from Eurex Exchange and is being posted with Eurex Exchange’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Eurex Exchange and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


14274




Technical Analysis

Raw Sugar (SB) Bounces Over 2.5% From Key .13 Level


Raw Sugar (SB) tried halting a 2 week slide yesterday, bouncing over 2.5% from the key .1300 level which although briefly breached in late June, eventually provided a springboard for a month long bear rally.  With one day left in the trading week, the weekly candle has become a Doji, suggesting a potential reversal for next week.  SB will have to follow through today by rallying above the week's high (on Monday) to put aside any doubt that the 2 week downtrend has ended.  Longer term, SB bulls will have to contend with triangle resistance (on the daily chart) and descending wedge resistance (on the weekly chart).  Weekly, daily and 4hr RSI, Stochastics and MACD are rallying or bottomish.  I remain long from Wednesday at .1334, targeting the red zone for early next week.  The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I set my stops tighter).

 

Raw Sugar (ICE SB Oct17) Weekly/Daily/4hr

 

Click here for today's technical analysis on Cocoa, Nikkei

 

Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures and spot FX markets can be analyzed to enhance trading performance. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, and interest rates), spot FX and cryptocurrency markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

 

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


14273




Options

Volatility 411: Significant Pop in Volatility


CBOETV - Michael Palmer, Group One Trading, discusses the VIX up 22%, a size Sept VIX 1-by-5 trade, and upside call buying is the trend.

Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, a person must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Copies are available from your broker, or at www.theocc.com. The information in this program is provided solely for general education and information purposes. No statement within the program should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell a security or to provide investment advice. The opinions expressed in this program are solely the opinions of the participants, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of CBOE or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates. You agree that under no circumstances will CBOE or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers, trading permit holders, employees, and agents, be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on information obtained from the program.

Copyright © 2016 Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated.   All rights reserved.

 

This video is from CBOE and is being posted with CBOE’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or CBOE and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


14271




Securities Lending

SLB Update: Percentage of Shorts


These were the percentage of shorts for each sector on 8/15/17.
 

The analysis in this article is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


14270




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