IB Traders Insight


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Macro

GUOSEN Closing Bell (July.28)


MARKET

Chinese stocks closed mixed today, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index ended at 2994.32 points. The A share market stabilised with mild fluctuation after yesterday fire sales, continued slump is unlikely with 60 days moving average supporting line, confidence might be restored in time when cloud is clearer. Food and property sectors led the gains; while computer and non bank financial sectors led the falls. Combined turnover for both markets was 557.2 bn yuan, down 30.9% dod.

 

CLOSE

%CHG

VOL (bn yuan)

%YTD

SH Composite

2994.32

0.08

217.6

-15.40

SZ Component

10396.31

-0.09

339.6

-17.91

CSI300

3221.14

0.09

124.4

-13.67

ChiNext

2139.75

-0.73

93.4

-21.16

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

Food

000529

Property

000961

Downward-leading

Computer

300449

Non bank financial

600061

 

NEWS

*China's insurance premium income continued its fast growth with a 37.3 percent increase year-on-year in the first half of 2016, according to the country's top insurance regulator. Premium income reached 1.88 trillion yuan ($282.5 billion) in H1, according to recent statistics from the China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC). Premium income of life insurance companies climbed 50.3 percent to hit 1.4 trillion yuan. Property insurance companies' premium income rose 8.5 percent to hit 463 billion yuan. An expansion of marketing staff and increased profits for insurance products have led to the growth in life insurance premium income, said Ding Wenjie, an analyst with CMB International. (Xinhua)

*Cambodia's Tourism Ministry has unveiled a policy to encourage the sector to accept renminbi, or the yuan, as part of a drive to attract tourists from China, a local newspaper reported on Wednesday. "This decision was made last month when the 'China Ready' white paper was released," Tith Chantha, a secretary of state at the ministry, was quoted as saying by the Khmer Daily. (China Daily)

 

 FUND FLOW

 

Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures, spot FX and equity CFD markets can be traded consistently profitably. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter (blog) provides technical analysis on a subset of ten to twelve CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, interest rates), spot FX and US equity markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

 

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


10338




Macro

European Market Outlook: Fed done, next BOJ


Morning Briefing July 28th 2016


Thursday throws up a busy day across the board, with a host of data releases in Europe and the US. However, the early part of the session will likely be dominated by the fallout from the FOMC's overnight policy decision.

The European calendar gets underway at 0700GMT, with the publication of the ILO employment data.

At the same time, in the UK, the July Nationwide House Price Index will be released.

French housing starts and permits will be published at 0645GMT, with German unemployment data at 0755GMT and VDMA machine orders at 0800GMT.

German state CPI will be released through the morning session, with Saxony likely to be the first release.

At 0900GMT, the Euro area economic sentiment indicator and the Business climate indicator will be released, along with the consumer confidence and industrial sentiment data.

At 1200GMT, the Germany flash July inflation data will cross the wire.

The US calendar gets underway at 1230GMT, with the publication of the trade data, business inventories and jobless data.
The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rebound by 7,000 to 260,000in the July 23 week after falling by only 1,000 in the previous week.

The latest US housing vacancies data will cross the wires at 1400GMT, with the DOE natural gas storage data expected a 1430GMT.

At 1500GMT, the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index will be published at1500GMT.

ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure speaks at the Yale Forum on financial crisis management organized by U.S. Department of Treasury, in New Haven, from 1800GMT. Late US data sees the publication of the latest Fed M2 money supply data at 2030GMT.

 

Global Economic Trading Calendar


 

Markets


FOREX: After initially going bid following the FOMC outcome, the greenback quickly surrendered all gains and entered into negative territory against its peers. Although the statement was upbeat, the Fed appear in no hurry to lift interest rates. US 2-year swap rates and 10-rear Treasury yields both declined taking the dollar along for the ride. US dollar weakness spilled over into the Asia-Pacific region, dollar-yen dropped from Y105.43 to Y104.65 before recovering to Y105.30. That rally was short-lived, the pair remained on the defensive and was last at Y104.80. Aussie-dollar moved higher from $0.7487 to $0.7529 before easing modestly, but held well above the $0.7500 handle and is currently at $0.7520. Euro-dollar ground out a fresh high and traded within a $1.1053 to $1.1077 range. Euro-dollar was last at $1.1074.

US INDEX FUTURES: US stock index futures are trading slightly higher on the back of Facebook's earnings, which received a 'like' in afterhours trade. Currently the Jun'16 e-mini S&P futures are trading up 2.75 points at 2,163.25, the Jun'16 e-mini Nasdaq futures are trading 1.00 points at 4,708.75, while the Jun'16 e-mini Dow futures are trading 19 points at 18,409.

US STOCKS CLOSE: US stocks took only modest comfort from the move lower in US Tsy yields after the FOMC decision, with tech stocks especially frothy. The DJIA closed down 0.01% at 18,472.17, the Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.58% at 5,139.810 and the S&P 500 closed down 0.12% at 2,166.58. On July 20, the DJIA and S&P 500 posted new life-time highs of 18,622.01 and 2,175.63. Earlier, the Nasdaq Composite posted a high of 5,151.056, the highest level since Dec 02, 2015 (5,176.772) high.

US TSY FUTURES: Treasury futures have eased slightly from their closing levels, with much of the Asian session to be spent digesting a lack of a hawkish surprise from the Fed. However reading many commentaries are pointing to that Yellen could still set the market up for a September or December hike when she deliver here Jackson Hole address with the Fed, with the release of the July minutes on Aug'17th shaping up to be a key date. Of course ahead of that the market will be in countdown mode ahead of the BOJ tomorrow, where the consensus us for some form of easing, but the BOJ could easily disappoint the market again, by delivering too little.

JAPAN STOCKS: Japanese stocks have eased as the Yen regained ground against the US dollar in the wake of the FOMC decision, with some profit taking seen ahead of the BOJ tomorrow. The Nikkei has closed for lunch down 0.69% or 114.56 points at 16,550.26, while the Topix is down 0.86% or 11.31 points at 1,310.36.

GOLD: Spot gold last down $2.90 at $1,337.20 per ounce, in a $1338.60 to $1333.65 range so far this morning in Asia, with the market seeing light profit taking after Wednesday's surge. AMP FX Capital Founder Greg Gibbs writes "the broad fall in the USD and lack of rates market response to a somewhat less dovish FOMC statement is curious and suggests that the Fed is suffering a credibility problem". He says "the market appears to doubt that the Fed will walk the talk". Resistance for gold is seen at $1,343, while support is seen at 1326 in the short-term.

OIL: Correct: WTI crude oil futures for Sep'16 delivery is last up 0.13 $ at $42.05 per barrel, after a $42.18 to $41.90 range in Asia today. Oil prices fell to new three-month lows yesterday with Sep Brent crude oil subsiding $1.10 (2.5%) to $43.77 while Sep WTI shed 91 cents (2.1%) to end the day at $42.01. The further weakness yesterday came about after the EIA reported a 1.7 million increase in crude oil barrels in w/e 22 Jul, which contrasted with expectations of a 2.6 million decline.

 

Technical Analysis


BUND TECHS: (U16) Slight Break Above Key Near Term Resistance

*RES 4: 168.26 1% volatility band
*RES 3: 168.13 Jul 6 high
*RES 2: 167.75 Hourly high Jul 11
*RES 1: 167.61 Jul 27 high

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 167.60
                                   
*SUP 1: 167.26/31 Hourly support
*SUP 2: 167.03 Jul 26 high, now support
*SUP 3: 166.89 Initial rally high Jul 27
*SUP 4: 166.68 Hourly basing area Jul 27

*COMMENTARY* The move above 166.87 on Tuesday was indeed encouraging, this has led to a high of 167.61 on Wednesday. Just above the key near term resistance from the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at 167.54. With a close at 167.60, we have to see if this break can be maintained. There are some near term overbought conditions to counter however. In this respect 167.26/167.31 provides initial support, with the Jul 26 high at 167.03 more important to momentum below.

 

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Gravestone Doji Close Is A Near Term Concern

*RES 4: 3089.0 May 31 high
*RES 3: 3058.0 Jun 23 high
*RES 2: 3014.0 Jul 27 high
*RES 1: 3001.0 Hourly resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 2981.0
 
*SUP 1: 2975.0 Hourly support
*SUP 2: 2964.0 Hourly base Jul 26
*SUP 3: 2945.0 Jul 26 low
*SUP 4: 2930.0 Initial rally high Jul 19

*COMMENTARY* Another rally through 2983.0/2988.0 resistance on Wednesday should be encouraging, a high of 3014.0 seen. The concern is the close back below 2983.0, thereby creating a potentially bearish 'gravestone doji' close on the daily chart. Will need to see the reaction to this tomorrow  but a move back
below 2945.0 would be a real concern and suggest that the current rally is over. In the interim, back above 3001.0 would be positive.

 

Eurex Futures Market Close


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MNI subscribers make critical decisions with deeper insight and greater confidence. Pinpoint information and market-moving interviews let them react instantly to market changes and more importantly, anticipate future market moves. MNI reporters are market professionals in the news business. They work like journalists but think like traders. When interviewing Fed officials, our reporters ask the same questions you would ask. They cover the angles you would cover. Write the way you read.

MNI’s news services are now available via the IB Trader platform. Please click here to view our provider page or contact MNI directly on sales@mni-news.com or +1 212 669 6400 for our Americas sales team and +44 207 862 7408 for our EMEA sales team.

This article is from Eurex Exchange and is being posted with Eurex Exchange’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Eurex Exchange and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


10337




Technical Analysis

EURUSD Daily MACD Positively Crosses Post-FOMC


The EURUSD exhibited a relatively tight roughly 100 pip range in the 1st 2 hours following yesterday's FOMC, with bulls prevailing and the EURUSD consolidating now in today's Asian morning just above what could become downchannel resistance (on the 4hr chart).  The EURUSD's post-FOMC bounce began from just below the key 1.1 support level (and at triangle support on the weekly chart), and continued with a surge that decisively broke above triangle resistance (on the daily chart).  Weekly, daily and 4hr RSI, Stochastics and MACD are rallying or bottomish, suggesting a continued bullish bias for today.  For bulls to remain confident over the next week, they'll want to see the weekly MACD green line begin turning up.  Note today's US Unemployment Claims releases at 830am EST.  I am flat after profitably closing a long yesterday and will look to re-enter an intraday long in the 1.103-1.106 range.

 

EURUSD Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly

 

Click here for today's technical analysis on AUDUSD, GBPUSD

 

Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures, spot FX and equity CFD markets can be traded consistently profitably. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter (blog) provides technical analysis on a subset of ten to twelve CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, interest rates), spot FX and US equity markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

 

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


10336




Options

What's Trading: FB


CBOETV – Peter Lusk, Senior Instructor, CBOE Options Institute, hosts today’s What’s Trading segment discussing a put spread on Facebook ahead of the technology company’s earnings report after the market close. Lusk talks implied volatility, risk and reward. 

 

Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, a person must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Copies are available from your broker, or at www.theocc.com. The information in this program is provided solely for general education and information purposes. No statement within the program should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell a security or to provide investment advice. The opinions expressed in this program are solely the opinions of the participants, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of CBOE or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates. You agree that under no circumstances will CBOE or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers, trading permit holders, employees, and agents, be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on information obtained from the program.

Copyright © 2016 Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated.   All rights reserved.
 

This video is from CBOE and is being posted with CBOE’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or CBOE and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


10335




Futures

Tech Earnings & FOMC Meeting


Jim Iuorio, CNBC Contributor & TJM Institutional Services

This video is from CME Group and is being posted with CME Group’s permission. The views expressed in this video are solely those of the author and/or CME Group and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the video. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


10334




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