IB Traders Insight


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Macro

GUOSEN Closing Bell (August.24)


MARKET

Chinese stocks closed mixed today, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index ended at 3085.88 points. The A share market fluctuated around the flat line amid rise of short term money rate. Electronics and communication sectors led the gains; while non bank financial and property sectors led the falls. Combined turnover for both markets was 449.0 bn yuan, down 2.4% dod.

 

CLOSE

%CHG

VOL (bn yuan)

%YTD

SH Composite

3085.88

-0.12

168.4

-12.81

SZ Component

10760.44

0.09

280.6

-15.04

CSI300

3329.86

-0.36

124.4

-10.75

ChiNext

2192.17

0.83

80.2

-19.23

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

Electronics

300331

Communication

002417

Downward-leading

Non bank financial

600291

Property

600322

 

NEWS

*China is expected to more than triple geothermal power consumption by 2020 to 72.1 million tons of coal equivalent from the current level, an expert said Monday. China consumed about 20 million tons of coal equivalent of geothermal resources for heating, power generation and other uses in 2015, said Cao Yaofeng, an academician of the China Engineering Academy, at a summit on sustainable development. By 2020, geothermal power will likely account for about 1.5 percent of the country's total energy consumption, Cao said, helping to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 177 million tonnes. (Xinhua)

*Housing inventories in China's major cities fell for a third-consecutive month as destocking measures kicked in, making further increases in home prices likely, latest industry data showed. Unsold new homes in 35 major Chinese cities totaled 244.8 million square meters at the end of July, down 1 percent from June and 5.6 percent from a year earlier, according to figures released by the property research agency E-house China R&D Institute. The area of unsold new homes in first-tier cities dropped 4 percent in July from June, while that for second-tier cities slipped 0.5 percent and that for third-tier cities decreased 1.2 percent. (Xinhua)

 

FUND FLOW

 

Click here for more information about Guosen.

This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


10611




Macro

European Market Outlook: German GDP data in focus


Morning Briefing August 24th 2016


It’s another relatively light data calendar Wednesday, with the releases scheduled largely second tier.

The European calendar gets underway at 0600GMT, with the publication of the final German Q2 GDP data.

At 0830GMT, the UK July BBA mortgage lending data will be released.

June saw the number of mortgage approvals, via the BBA measure, drop sharply, with the result meaning approvals had declined in seven of the last 10 months.

Prior declines were explained by rising political uncertainty and reduced buy-to-let demand, however in July the UK's decision to leave the European Union will have likely weighed on confidence.

As can be seen above, all of the analysts polled expect the number of approvals to decline further in July with a median expectation of 38,000.

The US calendar gets underway at 1100GMT, with the publication of the latest MBA weekly applications index.

At 1300GMT, the FHFA Home Price Index will be released. The Belgian National Bank will publish their August Business Sentiment Index at the same time.

Further US data will be published at 1400GMT, when the July Building permits revisions and NAR existing home sales are set for publication.

The pace of existing home sales is expected to moderate to 5.50 million at an annual rate in July after four straight gains. At the same time, supply continued to slip, driving prices higher. According to NAR, will take a boost in supply, fed by strong new home sales, to keep existing home sale on an upward track.

The latest DOE weekly crude oil stocks will cross the wires at 1600GMT.

Late European data sees the July French Labour Ministry Jobseekers numbers released.

 

Global Economic Trading Calendar


 

Markets


FOREX: Trading in the Asia-Pacific region was another low-key affair with investors happy to mark time ahead of this week's main event, Fed-Chair Yellen's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. Dollar-yen had a small run higher from Y100.19 toY100.52, Japanese retail accounts were said to be behind the move, the pair ran into supply above Y100.50 and then consolidated for the balance of the session. Dollar-yen was last at Y100.32. Euro-dollar largely traded around $1.1300 in what was a narrow $1.1293 to $1.1312 range and was last at $1.1300. Meanwhile, Aussie-dollar held a tight $0.7601 to $0.7618 range, local data was second tier and passed without incident. Aussie-dollar was last at $0.7613.

US INDEX FUTURES: US stock index futures are trading slightly higher in quiet trade as the market counts down to Janet Yellen's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, with hopes of dovish comments keeping the market supported for now. Currently the Jun'16 e-mini S&P futures are trading down up 0.75 of a point at 2,186.25, the Jun'16 e-mini Nasdaq futures are trading up 3.00 points at 4,82.25, while the Jun'16 e-mini Dow futures are trading down 7 points at 18,535.

US STOCKS CLOSE: US stocks closed in positive territory Tuesday, but off earlier highs. The DJIA closed up 0.10% at 18,547.30, the Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.30% at 5,260.078 and the S&P 500 closed up 0.20% at 2,186.90. The DJIA and S&P 500 posted new life-time highs, of 18,668.44 and 2,193.81 respectively, on Aug 15. The Nasdaq Composite earlier took out its Aug 15 high of 5,271.357 to post a new life-time high of 5,275.741.

US TSYS: It continuing to be a lame session for treasuries with cash only trading some ~$1.3bln, with the market flat lining though out the morning session. Sources report some real money interest in 30's but nothing too substantial. Elsewhere other markets are offering little inspiration, with e-mini S&P futures down 1.50, JGB futures up 3, while the Nikkei is up 0.50% at lunch.

JAPAN STOCKS: Japanese stocks have ambled through Wednesday's morning session, with the market holding onto its opening gains. The Nikkei has closed for lunch up 0.50% or 83.02 points at 16,580.38, while the Topix is up 0.60% or 7.80points at 1,305.36.

GOLD: Spot gold last up $1.20 at $1,338.75 per ounce, in a $1,339.55 to $1,337.10 range so far this morning in Asia, with the market trading quietly as the US dollar continues to do little. TD analysts note "summer doldrums keep most markets including the precious metals complex range-bound awaiting fresh inspiration from the USD and USD rates environment. TD says "commentary from Federal Reserve Officials is eagerly awaited and scrutinized, hence Janet Yellen's forthcoming speech at the Jackson Hole economic symposium on Friday is a highlight of the week". They note that "this event has been inconsequential for financial markets in the past two years but has historically been used as a platform to introduce major policy moves".

OIL: WTI crude oil futures for Oct'16 delivery last down $0.45 at $47.65 per barrel, after a $47.74 to $47.46 range in Asia today. The API data, released late Tuesday, purportedly showed a sizable build of 4.46 mnbs in the latest week, instead of the small draw expected. WTI has tumbled in response in after-hours trading. The focus now is on EIA data, due out Weds at 10:30 am ET. Tuesday's earlier trade saw prices spike after Reuters reported that Iran, which has throughout the year resisted encouragement from fellow oil producers to curb output, was "sending positive signals" about supporting joint efforts to do so, citing unnamed OPEC and industry sources.

 

Technical Analysis


BUND: (U16) Bulls Need Close Above 168.13

*RES 4: 169.93 Weekly Bull channel top 1
*RES 3: 168.86 2016 & Record high June 24
*RES 2: 168.13 High July 6
*RES 1: 168.08 Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 167.70

*SUP 1: 167.37 Low Aug 23
*SUP 2: 167.18 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*SUP 3: 166.78 Rising daily trend line
*SUP 4: 166.55 55-DMA    

*COMMENTARY: The 166.36-71 support region confirmed significance with the contract bouncing to now pressure 168.13. Bulls continue to look for a close above 168.13 to hint at a break higher with a close above 2016 & record highs targeting the weekly bull channel top (169.93). Bears continue to look for a close below 166.36 to confirm breaks of the 55-DMA, rising daily trend line and weekly bull channel base, shifting immediate focus to 165.29-51.

 

EUROSTOXX: 3014.81-3097.96 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 3156.86 Monthly high Apr 21
*RES 3: 3097.96 High May 31
*RES 2: 3063.40 High Aug 15
*RES 1: 3014.81 Low Aug 16 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 2993.73

*SUP 1: 2927.32 55-DMA
*SUP 2: 2908.22 Bollinger band base
*SUP 3: 2892.52 Low Aug 3
*SUP 4: 2807.65 High July 6 now support

*COMMENTARY: Despite breaking the rising daily channel base Friday bears have so far been unable to take out the 2892.52-2927.32 region where the 55-DMA is located. Bears need a close below 2892.52 to confirm focus on tests of the 2016 low. Bulls still need a close above 3014.81 to ease bearish pressure and above 3097.96 to confirm breaks of the 200-DMA and 55 & 200-WMAs to reconfirm a bullish bias targeting the100-WMA (3238.38).

 

Eurex Futures Market Close


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MNI subscribers make critical decisions with deeper insight and greater confidence. Pinpoint information and market-moving interviews let them react instantly to market changes and more importantly, anticipate future market moves. MNI reporters are market professionals in the news business. They work like journalists but think like traders. When interviewing Fed officials, our reporters ask the same questions you would ask. They cover the angles you would cover. Write the way you read.

MNI’s news services are now available via the IB Trader platform. Please click here to view our provider page or contact MNI directly on sales@mni-news.com or +1 212 669 6400 for our Americas sales team and +44 207 862 7408 for our EMEA sales team.

This article is from Eurex Exchange and is being posted with Eurex Exchange’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Eurex Exchange and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
 


10610




Technical Analysis

Arabica Coffee (KC) Daily MACD Positively Crossing


Arabica Coffee (KC) added to Monday's rally yesterday as its weekly candle continues providing confirmation that the bounce last week from just below 1.4 has legs.  Significantly, KC is confidently resuming the upchannel or ascending wedge (on the weekly chart).  Weekly, daily and 4hr RSI, Stochastics and MACD are bottomish, rallying or consolidating recent gains, except for the weekly MACD has seemingly been trying to negatively cross.  I am flat and will wait for any mild pullback today before looking to go long intraday in the 1.43-1.45 range.

 

Arabica Coffee (ICE KC Dec16) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly

 

Click here for today's technical analysis on Raw Sugar, Cocoa

 

 

Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures, spot FX and equity CFD markets can be traded consistently profitably. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter (blog) provides technical analysis on a subset of ten to twelve CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, interest rates), spot FX and US equity markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

 

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 

 


10608




Options

What's Trading? INTU


CBOETV – Peter Lusk, Senior Instructor, CBOE Options Institute, discusses put options and implied volatility in INTU.

Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, a person must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Copies are available from your broker, or at www.theocc.com. The information in this program is provided solely for general education and information purposes. No statement within the program should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell a security or to provide investment advice. The opinions expressed in this program are solely the opinions of the participants, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of CBOE or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates. You agree that under no circumstances will CBOE or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers, trading permit holders, employees, and agents, be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on information obtained from the program.

Copyright © 2016 Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated.   All rights reserved.
 

This video is from CBOE and is being posted with CBOE’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or CBOE and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


10606




Options

Volatility 411


CBOETV – Kevin Davitt, Senior Instructor, CBOE Options Institute, discusses VIX term structure and activity in September and October expiry call options.

Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, a person must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Copies are available from your broker, or at www.theocc.com. The information in this program is provided solely for general education and information purposes. No statement within the program should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell a security or to provide investment advice. The opinions expressed in this program are solely the opinions of the participants, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of CBOE or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates. You agree that under no circumstances will CBOE or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers, trading permit holders, employees, and agents, be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on information obtained from the program.

Copyright © 2016 Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated.   All rights reserved.
 

This video is from CBOE and is being posted with CBOE’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or CBOE and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


10607




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