There is a full data day on Tuesday, with a busy schedule on either side of the Atlantic.
The European data calendar kicks off at 0600GMT, with the publication of the German import/export prices.
At 0645GMT, the French manufacturing and services sentiment data will be released, along with the Business climate index.
In the UK, at 0830GMT, the UK Finance, formerly BBA, consumer credit andmortgage lending data will be published.
UK PM Theresa May will meet EUCO President Donald Tusk, in London, to discuss Brexit issues.
ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet chairs the Jean Monnet Lecture "Good Pension Design" at Second ECB Annual Research Conference organised by the ECB, in Frankfurt, starting at 1200GMT.
The US data calendar kicks off at 1230GMT, with the publication of the Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index, to be followed by the Redbook Retail Sales Index at 1255GMT.
The US data continues at 1300GMT, with the release of the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index.
Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester will moderate the "Global Outlook" general session at the NABE Annual Meeting in Cleveland, with audience Q&A, while Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans will give Welcoming Remarks at the 17th Annual Chicago Payments Symposium in Chicago, both at 1330GMT.
There is a raft of US data expected at 140GMT, including the latest new home sales, the Richmond Fed Survey and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence. The Dallas Fed Services Survey is expected at 1430GMT.
Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard speakS at "Federal Reserve Board Conference: Disparities in the Labor Market: What are we missing?" in Washington, starting at 1430GMT.
At 1630GMT, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic delivers a speech on economic outlook and monetary policy to the Atlanta Press Club in Atlanta, with audience Q&A. The, at 1645GMT, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen delivers the keynote address at the NABE Annual Meeting to Assess Prospects for Growth in Shifting Global Economy in Cleveland, with audience Q&A..
SNAPSHOT: Below gives key levels of markets in the second half of the Asia-Pac session:
- Nikkei 225 down 36.6 points at 20361.82
- ASX 200 down 2.429 points at 5681.7
- Shanghai Comp. up 2.019 points at 3343.706
- JGB 10-Yr future up 4 ticks at 150.89, JGB 10-Yr yield flat at 0.028%
- Aussie 3-Yr future up 3 ticks at 97.84, Aussie 3-Yr yield down 2.6bp at 2.13%
- Aussie 10-Yr future up 3 ticks at 97.2, Aussie 10-Yr yield down 2.9bp at 2.771%
- US 10-Yr future flat at 126.03, US 10-Yr yield down 0.4bp at 2.216%
US TSY/RECAP: Treasuries ended around Mon price highs on safe-haven buying as N. Korea foreign minister said it could potentially fire even if US airplanes technically were not in N. Korea airspace; N. Korea said US Pres. Trump weekend comments were "act of war"; US disputes. - Tsys began NY higher, flatter as overnight rally picked up 4am ET as Tsys tracked EGBS upward after German election results, FTQ on Mideast. Tsys technical buying as 10Y cash note and 10Y Tsy futures broke upside pivot levels, bullish development that brought in technical buying. - Tsys open Asia at 126-01+ and flat, US 10-Year yield at 2.220
US EURODLR FUTURES: Mixed across the strip with the short end up and the long end down, Gold packs currently in the red. Rate hike probability declined to 61.2% from 63% yesterday. Most promising open interest and volumes in white pack
STOCKS: N. Korea has it seems instilled fear into the markets with most of Wall Street indices ending lower along with European stocks. The Asian markets haven't escaped although showing signs of stabilising as gains in gold and yen steadied too... The Nikkei 225 is currently down 20.29pts at 20337.29 as it sits in the lunch break. Investors earlier retreated to safe havens in fixed incomemarkets after the N. Korea foreign minister said it could fire even if the U.S were not in local airspace as comments from Trump suggesting the U.S would take out N. Korean leadership were considered by N. Korea as 'an act of war.' - As predicted by sources early on in the session, 'the sector of the Aussie market that looks set to perform is energy, with both Brent and US crude gaining over 2.5%.' The ASX is up last at around 5685.301.
GOLD: Gold rallied during the Asia-Pac session following the overnight session currently at $1312.61, up $1.83. Investors retreated to safe havens in the overnight session after the N. Korea foreign minister said it could fire even if the U.S were not in local airspace as comments from Trump suggesting the U.S would take out N. Korean leadership were considered by N. Korea as 'an act of war,' the yellow metal now looks to be setting up for Tuesday's speech from Fed Yellen.
OIL: Investors retreated to safe havens in the overnight session within fixed income markets after the N. Korea foreign minister said it could fire even if the U.S were not in local airspace as comments from Trump suggesting the U.S would take out N. Korean leadership were considered by N. Korea as 'an act of war.' One of those safe havens being Crude Oil which has rallied to its highest levels seen since May this year during this Asia-Pac session reaching $52.43, currently at $52.37. Brent hit 2 year highs as OPEC continue to cut production and Turkish President Erdogan on Monday threatened to invade Iraq and cut off oil pipeline after the Kurdish people voted for independence, the Kurds are land locked and ship up to 700,000 barrels of oil per day to Turkey, if Erdogan sticks to his word, this would be significantly disruptive to the supply chain.
FOREX: Consolidation was predominantly the theme during the Asia-Pacific session, markets remaining in risk-off mode amid an escalating war of words from N Korea. Dollar-yen carved out a Y111.54 to Y111.80 range and was last at Y111.60. Aussie-dollar rose from $0.7923 to $0.7948 on reported buying from ndomestic corporates, Aussie-kiwi demand also helping to underpin. Aussie was last at $0.7945. Kiwi-dollar edged lower from $0.7278 to $0.7236, a downbeat ANZ NZ business survey keeping the kiwi on the back foot. Kiwi was last at $0.7247.Meanwhile, Euro-dollar is currently at $1.1860 and Cable at $1.3482, after trading in respective ranges of $1.1845 to $1.1861 and $1.3459 to $1.3485.
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Highlighted themes and actionable charts:
A large number of positive catalysts for the energy equity space are being highlighted by professionals.
Firstly, there is a new risk that just crept into the market if you are short of energy. Last week, Anadarko Petroleum (symbol: APC) announced a substantial equity retirement program. While that event highlights improving financial discipline, it also portends to a pre-emptive and defensive maneuver ahead of potential large-cap M&A activity.
Secondly, after ignoring it for the last three years, there is newfound attention on US rig counts, a metric released by Baker Hughes on Friday afternoon.
The market has woken up to the fact that the data is supportive for higher crude oil prices. For example, rig counts have fallen eight times over the last 13 weeks. This compares with only one reduction during the preceding 25 weeks.
The most significant move in futures positioning (week ending September 19th) was once again with the British pound, as sentiment improved the most (week over week) on record. The Federal Reserve provided the markets with the hawkish news it was looking for, as global yields continue to recover off 2017 lows and as the yield curve flattens even more. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report also highlighted continued yen short-covering despite a new trade-weighted low for Japan's currency. Lastly, US equity (bullish) sentiment pulled back as speculators cautiousness and indecision signal a potential bearish reversal pattern heading into the last week of September.
British pound speculative sentiment soared after the BOE (Bank of England) stunned market participants the prior week by signalling a rate hike at the next MPC meeting. According to most recent COT (Commitment of Traders Report), large speculators substantially increased their long exposure, adding the most net longs in a week in recent history. This is occurring while retail FX optimism towards Sterling remains near the lowest level for the year and both times (in May & June) retail sentiment reached this extreme the pound had actually begun to top-out. Moreover, last week's price-action demonstrated GBP's overbought status and could hint of extended consolidation until over-stretched technical conditions unwind a bit. That said, a move towards 1.3831/1.3948 to the topside is still favored while corrective dips in the GBP/USD remain supported in the mid-1.34's.
The 10-month improvement in speculative euro positioning has pulled back quite significantly off the largest net long position by (non-commercial) speculators on record seen two weeks ago. The EUR/USD, however, managed to appreciate during that period (Sep 12th - Sep 19th), albeit rather marginally. This may be due to the large short-covering move by commercial traders (hedgers) that more than offset the dip in non-commercial net longs. Also, retail FX trading positioning indicates that the retail population began selling euros again just last week, which could provide further support for the single currency going forward. While the 1.1840 region remains supportive, the next key (upside) objective is 1.2138 or the mid point of the overall range since 2014.
The percentage of long contracts by non-commercial speculator's improved for the 8th straight week, highlighting the short-covering of the yen carry trade from mid-July's 2-year peak. The decline of the yen since September 8th, however, has seemingly caught traders off-guard, as the trade-weighted yen has quickly fallen to a new 2017 low. According to recent retail FX trading data, the retail population has continued to fight recent yen weakness and has nearly upped their holdings to a neutral net position. If retail traders continue to buy yen, then a sustained push through the 113.00 level (USD/JPY) could expose the key 114.38 region. That said, a sustained loss of the 100-day moving average at 111.00 could quickly re-open the 109.33/110.00 region to the downside.
Bullish sentiment by Australian dollar (large) speculators increased substantially, reaching a new record net long position. Recent moves (up) through the July high at .8066 (AUD/USD), however, continue to be brief, as price-action spent most of last week consolidating under the 80 cent threshold once again. Although, the latest trend (up) looks to be losing steam, subsequent dips seem to find its footing at a relatively high level. If retail FX traders continue to sell the AUD as they did in the tail-end of last week, Aussie bulls may be able clear .8066 (to the upside) and potentially negate bearish divergences seen on both daily and weekly charts. This would also increase the odds for a sustainable move through the recent high at .8125 towards .8455. That said, a clean loss of .7835 (to the downside) would suggest a much more meaningful correction in (bullish) sentiment which could trigger a move (down) to the key .7700 region.
Canadian dollar bullish sentiment by large speculators inched up in the latest COT report after having steadied over the past few weeks off August's peak. Meanwhile, after reaching a fresh 2-year low two weeks ago, the USD/CAD has managed to recover a bit. The most recent retail FX data indicates that the retail trading population is starting to buy into the Loonie, which is typically bearish if this trend persists. Also, with weekly RSI diverging, further Canadian currency strength could be rather limited until the rather crowded net long position by futures speculators can unwind a bit more. That said, the recovery in the USD/CAD has been choppy and looks to be a mere technical correction within the latest downtrend, especially while price-action remains substantially below the psychological 1.25 threshold.
Gold futures sentiment has continued to wane, according the latest COT report, as net long positions by percentage ticked down for the 2nd straight week. More importantly, Gold futures since breaking a key trendline in August, have managed to erase all of September's gains and nearly half of the latest up-move from July, all in one fell swoop. According to recent retail FX trading data, the retail population continues to anticipate a return to strength for the yellow metal. While, this development alone could temporarily guide gold futures lower, overbought conditions on both daily & weekly charts have been somewhat alleviated. That said, downward momentum seems to be strong enough to push gold futures potentially towards 1280, the exact midpoint of the latest range (since July). If, however, gold prices can reclaim 1315 to the topside, this would further stabilize bearish short-term momentum.
Crude oil futures continued to hover near the psychological 50 mark, despite recently breaking out of a 7-month trendline resistance. Positioning by futures traders (Sep 12 to Sep 19) increased in terms of net long positions and percentage. While, the technical outlook has remained confined to a well-established range between 42 & 52, a sustained push beyond 50.46 (July 31st high) would shift expectations (higher) towards 52 then possibly 54. That said, the rather tepid up-move could hint of and losing 49.15 to the downside could usher-in further ranging and expose the 46 handle again.
E-mini S&P 500 futures reached another all-time high last week, but finished the week mostly unchanged. The problem, however, is that indecisive price-action at such an extreme is often followed by nasty downside reversals. Moreover, the latest speculative sentiment data highlighted that E-mini S&P 500 speculators were growing even more cautious. The net long percentage pulled back even further from last month's fresh multi-year highs and is clearly diverging with respect to price-action. It will be interesting from a longer-term perspective, how price-action reacts next week given last week's bearish technical pattern (weekly evening star doji). That said, the overall trend up remains clearly in tact and would need a clean (downside) breach of 100-day moving average support to signal a trend change.
Nasdaq 100 futures speculators also pared back net longs in the latest COT report. This allowed for the net long percentage to inch down from 64% to 62% heading into the close of last Tuesday's trade. Subsequent price-action suggests that technical headwinds such as weekly (chart) divergences could potentially limit further strength. Moreover, the lethargic mood exhibited by non-commercial traders, suggest that Nasdaq 100 futures could struggle to make headway without some sort of bullish news event that can trigger separation from the August highs. The FOMC last week failed to be that catalyst for equity traders, which could shift attention back to the Trump administration's proposed economic policies. That said, it would still take a sustained loss (by Nasdaq 100 futures) of the 5800 region to shift the overall trend lower.
US 10-Year futures sentiment continues to diverge from price-action. While this sudden (down) move in bond prices has seemingly caught the market off-guard, the most recent COT data also continued to point out that (large) speculators continue to not fully participate, but have been adding to both gross & net longs for the 2nd straight week. Even in the face of last week's FOMC meeting and rising rate expectations, sentiment has remained up-beat. The only caveat is that the Fed's decision to begin balance-sheet normalization sort of exhausted the latest decline and since then there is a sense (technically) that US 10-year futures prices are stabilizing. This hints of more two-way price-action as we saw last week, especially as the economic calendar dries-up heading into month-end.
US 30-year futures speculators actually were much less pessimistic than usual, according to the latest COT report, as bullish sentiment improved back towards its 2017 high. Gross longs, however, pared back quite a bit, putting some more separation between the highest level since 2008 seen in August. The dramatic reduction in gross shorts, however, is what drove sentiment higher. This is becoming a dominant theme in bond markets, as sentiment continues to diverge with (bearish) price-action. For US 30-year futures, this may be more prevalent since the yield curve is flattening and is at the narrowest its been all year. Technically, bond futures appear to basing post last week's Fed decision, which again could suggest further 2-way moves going into the last week of the month.
Peter Ruud, CMT is an independant trader and author of the Talking Technology blog that focuses on timely technical analysis of the global financial markets. Previously, as a Senior Technical Analyst for IGM, Mr. Ruud has nearly 20 years of technical research and trading experience. Mr. Ruud holds a Chartered Market Technician designation and is a member of the Market Technician’s Association.
This article is from Peter Ruud and is being posted with Peter Ruud’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Peter Ruud and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has won a fourth term but now faces tricky coalition talks after mainstream parties posted their worst results since the 1940s.
We believe the outcome of the German election will have limited impact on financial markets but see it slowing momentum behind efforts to strengthen the eurozone. The election result also showed euroskeptic sentiments still run high in the bloc, as evidenced by the larger-than-expected 13% share for the right-wing Alternative for Germany party.
We prefer European equities over eurozone government bonds and credit amid a sustained, above-trend economic expansion and a steady earnings outlook. Companies with much of their cost base overseas should have some cover against a strong euro in the short term, we believe.
We see some scope for the U.S. dollar to regain some lost ground against the euro as the Federal Reserve presses ahead of policy normalization and inflation looks ripe for a potential rebound. We believe core inflation in the eurozone is likely to stay muted, keeping the European Central Bank accommodative.
Investors have not been pricing in a major risk event around the German election. Comparing the curve of the VSTOXX® index – the European equivalent of the VIX index, a common measure of equity volatility in the U.S. – ahead of the French and German elections this year shows investors anticipating volatility around the former, but a ‘normal’ curve with no equivalent price spike around the time of the latter.
Coup concerns versus putsch placidity
VSTOXX® term structure ahead of French and German elections
As of September 21, $36 billion has flowed into European equity exchange traded products globally year-to-date, according to Markit and BlackRock. This represents about the same amount that flowed out of these exposures in 2016. A steadier political backdrop in Europe should support sustained, above-trend economic growth and some reform – and bolsters the case for considering the region’s equities, in our view.
Eurozone equities have performed well this year, although the gains have slowed somewhat.1 The MSCI EMU Index is up 12% in U.S. dollar terms, as of September 21st, but has gained 1.42% since August 1st. The MSCI Germany Index is up 9.03% this year, but is up 2.32% since August 1st. Interestingly, the recent outperformance has occurred despite recent euro strength, yet roughly 47% of sales revenues of the members of the MSCI Germany Index are generated outside Europe, whereas the Euro Stoxx Index, for example, sees around 30% of sales revenues generated outside Europe, as of 9/21/17.
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