IBKR Quant-Blog


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Technical Analysis

Raw Sugar (SB) Forms First Green Weekly Candle in 11 Weeks


Raw Sugar (SB) bounced almost 1% Friday off prior triangle/downtrend resistance now support (on the 4hr chart).  Significantly, SB formed the 1st green weekly candle in 11 weeks, and appears to be in the early stages of attempting a major trend reversal.  Before bulls get too excited, they'll want to see SB break above a 4 plus month downchannel resistance intersecting roughly .12 (on the daily and weekly charts).  The weekly, daily and 4hr RSI, Stochastics and MACD are bottomish, rallying or consolidating recent gains.  I am looking to enter long in the green zone (of the daily chart), targeting the red zone for mid week.  The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I set my stops tighter).
 

Raw Sugar (ICE SB Jul17) Weekly/Daily/4hr


Click here for today's technical analysis on Corn, Wheat

 

Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures and spot FX markets can be analyzed to enhance trading performance. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, and interest rates), spot FX and cryptocurrency markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

 

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


18039




Macro

GUOSEN Closing Bell (May 21)


MARKET

Chinese stocks climbed, gaining after American and Chinese officials signaled a de-escalation of recent trade tension. The overall market showed increasing confidence as trading volume recovered. Telecom and Electronic Component sectors led the gains, while Electronic Component and Power sectors led the falls. Combined turnover for both markets was CNY 460.9 bn, up 22.57% dod.

 

 

Close

% Change

Vol (bn CNY)

%YTD

Shanghai

3213.84

0.64

202.66

-2.82

Shenzhen

10765.35

0.87

258.56

-2.49

CSI 300

3921.24

0.47

120.53

-2.72

ChiNext

1862.48

1.40

88.82

6.27

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

Telecom

600522

Electronic Component

300543

Downward-leading

Electronic Component

600740

Food& Beverage

002557

 

NEWS

*Xi’s green comments spark environmental stock rally. Stocks linked to environmental protection in China jumped on Monday after President Xi Jinping reaffirmed the government’s battle against pollution. Xinhua, the state-run news agency, quoted Mr Xi as saying China would push ecological advancement to a “new level”, limit waste and unnecessary consumption during a meeting on environmental protection on Sunday. (Financial Times)

 

FUND FLOW

 

Click here for more information about Guosen.

This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


18040




Futures

Tradable Events this Week


1. Running of the Bulls

Last week’s chop in equity markets can easily discourage buyers as memory of the prior week’s 2.5% gain fades. But we believe the fundamentals and technicals are aligning for a push higher. Volume was light as traders and investors awaited news from the U.S and China trade talks in Washington. There is no confirmation behind Thursday’s rumor that China will slash the trade surplus by $200 billion, but the White House said this morning they will not impose tariffs on China. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin added, “the trade war is on hold for now”, and most importantly, China said they will ramp up imports of agricultural and energy products. The S&P held ground well while it consolidated last week in the face of rising Treasury yields. One wild card from the trade talks is a potential agreement on Treasury purchases. Though there has not been any rumors of such with China, 2’s 5’s and 7-year Notes will be auctioned this week. A relief from rising yields would surely become another bullish catalyst. One small headwind tonight will be the story 60 Minutes plans to run on Google, however, we believe this is likely fluff.

On a technical basis, it was only two and a half weeks ago when the S&P held its third battle with the 200-day moving average. Each one incurred less volume, signaling less selling. The sharp move higher through May 14th broke out above trend line resistance from the all-time highs. This move has also laid the ground work for a bull-flag and last week’s quiet consolidation is playing that out. Lastly, the Russell 2000 not only reached a record last week, it closed upon such. The broader market is signaling it wants to move higher and considering the fundamental developments over the weekend coupled with such constructive technicals, this week is go-time.

 

 

2. The Fed

This is yet another week jam-packed with Fed speak. The usual suspects are on the docket. For instance, Monday brings Atlanta, Philadelphia and then Minneapolis Fed Presidents Bostic (11:15 am CT), Harker (1:05) and Kashkari (4:30 pm CT). On Wednesday, the Minutes from the Fed meeting earlier this month are released at 1:00 pm CT. However, the week really culminates with Friday’s speech from Fed Chair Powell. The treasury and currency markets find themselves at an important crossroad despite slacking economic data. While the Minutes will be key, Powell might help answer some of the most pressing questions; what recent misses on Wage Growth, CPI and arguably Retail Sales this month mean for the path of hikes this year. PMI data is due Wednesday and Durable Goods on Friday ahead of Powell. A June rate hike is essentially 100% priced in.

 

 

3. The Euro

The Euro closed last week at the lowest level since the week of December 4th. Poor data, demand for the Dollar and uncertainty surrounding Italy have all weighed on the single currency. On Friday night, the Five Star Movement and the League struck a German-style deal to bring a populist government to Italy. The deal should bring some calm to Italian stocks and the Euro. This week we look to regional and Eurozone PMIs on Wednesday and German GDP. Additionally, the Minutes from the April ECB Meeting will be released on Thursday morning. German Ifo Business Climate data is due on Friday, April’s read was the worst since November 2012. All in all, the Euro is reaching heightened negativity. In fact, according to the CFTC Commitment of Traders, Leveraged money has now gone net-short the Euro. There has been three instances in the last year that Leveraged money has done this; leading up to the May/June 2017 breakout, the low of the October pull back and in December just before the Euro broke out to new swing highs. All things considered, this is not a crowded trade that one wants to join; the risk is to the upside and our next major three-star support comes in at 1.1735.

 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

This article is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with iBlue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


18038




Devisen

MarketsNow - Daily Update


MarketsNow is a research tool that provides news, commentary, trending indicators, live charts and an exchange rate calculator focused on the world's major currencies and commodities. Every trading day, we publish daily updates summarizing recent developments for currencies and commodities that we cover. From time to time, we also publish proprietary research into topics such as fiscal and macroeconomic policy, speculator sentiment and economic data. The service is geared towards helping traders gain a better understanding of currencies and commodities based on a transparent process. Check us out at https://www.marketsnow.com

This article is from MarketsNow and is being posted with MarketsNow’s permission. The information provided in this article is from MarketNow and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


18037




Technical Analysis

Nasdaq - Technical Take


Markets are taking a breather today after what is shaping up to be a solid month.  The Dow Jones Industrials is now the only major index not in positive territory YTD. Underneath the hood technology and energy have been the top performing sectors both this month and YTD. Technology was last year’s top performing sector with a gain of 39% and is currently up 9.2% YTD. Energy is rebounding from a (1%) decline in 2017 which extend into the start of 2018 with a Q1 decline 6.6%.  However Q2 has seen a sharp reversal higher and the S&P 500 energy index is up 15.2% QTD which brought it back into the green with a YTD gain of 7.6%. The energy index is now at a key inflection point as it now testing the ~5754 resistance line which marks the highs for the index since recovering from the crash in 2014 – 2015. It reaches this expected level of overhead supply with a daily RSI already at an extended 72 reading, and the weekly RSI, 67, not far from being overbought itself. Over the near to intermediate term the sector seems overdue for some backing and filling in order to work off overbought momentum readings and regroup for a potential breakout of resistance.

 

Nasdaq's Market Intelligence Desk (MID) Team includes: 

Michael Sokoll, CFA is a Senior Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq with over 25 years of equity market experience. In this role, he manages a team of professionals responsible for providing NASDAQ-listed companies with real-time trading analysis and objective market information.

Jeffrey LaRocque is a Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq, covering U.S. equities with over 10 years of experience having learned market structure while working on institutional trading desks and as a stock surveillance analyst. Jeff's diverse professional knowledge includes IPOs, Technical Analysis and Options Trading.

Steven Brown is a Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq with over twenty years of experience in equities. With a focus on client retention he currently covers the Financial, Energy and Media sectors.

Christopher Dearborn is a Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq. Chris has over two decades of equity market experience including floor and screen based trading, corporate access, IPOs and asset allocation. Chris is responsible for providing timely, accurate and objective market and trading-related information to Nasdaq-listed companies.

Brian Joyce, CMT has 16 years of trading desk experience. Prior to joining Nasdaq Brian executed equity orders and provided trading ideas to institutional clients. He also contributed technical analysis to a fundamental research offering. Brian focuses on helping Nasdaq’s Financial, Healthcare and Airline companies among others understand the trading in their stock. Brian is a Chartered Market Technician.

This article is from Nasdaq and is being posted with Nasdaq’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Nasdaq and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


18035




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Offenlegungen

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