IBKR Quant-Blog


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Futures

Blue Line Futures - FX Rundown


Euro (December)

Session close: Settled at 1.1768, up 52.5 ticks

Fundamentals: The Euro posted a strong start to the week along with the British Pound as traders look to the first of three EU summits Wednesday as a step towards reaching a Brexit deal. The U.S Dollar was also broadly weaker against all major currencies on the heels of last week’s soft inflation data and after NY Empire State Manufacturing missed expectations this morning. This morning, the final read on August Eurozone CPI was right in line with expectations. Also, the German Bundesbank released their Monthly Report and they voiced an upbeat tone on the economy. They noted better than expected sentiment and were confident that manufacturing will pick up in the coming months. All in all, this was a great start to one of the slower weeks on the economic calendar this month. Tomorrow, ECB President Mario Draghi is expected to speak at 3:15 am CT. From the U.S, a stretch of housing data over the next few days kicks off with NAHB Housing Market Index at 9:00 am CT.

Technicals: Today was a very constructive session given Friday’s weakness. The Euro is back near 1.18 and again facing a critical band of resistance. First, multiple technical indicators including a trend line that was tested last week align directly overhead at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

 

Yen (December)

Session close: Settled at .8997, up 11.5 ticks

Fundamentals: We have been calling the Yen a very unenthusiastic trade and ultimately, that is exactly what it comes down to. Safe-haven spikes have proven to be prime fading opportunities. Not only has Japan’s proximity to China reduced the ability of the Yen to capitalize on trade war fears, the Bank of Japan has failed to follow through on firming up a time frame to tighten monetary policy. Still, traders will be on edge Tuesday night for the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting and any signs that point to a potential shift in policy at the end of the first quarter next year. The Yen notched a gain of only 0.1% today although both the Dollar Index and the S&P lost about 0.5%. Today was a small step forward, but the next two steps back are casting a large shadow.

Technicals: Price action has struggled to hold ground and as we pointed to .9000 as the benchmark in the September contract, we now look to ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

 

Aussie (December)

Session close: Settled at .7183, up 15 ticks

Fundamentals: The Aussie’s recovery from the lowest level since February 2016 will certainly get put to the test over the next 24 hours. The obvious headwind is President Trump imposing 10% tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods starting next week. China is Australia’s number one trade partner and the trade war will continue to take a toll on the entire region. Secondly, the RBA holds a policy meeting at 8:30 pm CT. Their tone has slowly become more dovish but not only so because of the trade war, lenders have raised rates on borrowers and this has tightened policy for the central bank. Traders must keep an ear to the ground on the development on both fronts.

Technicals: Price action has staged a shallow recovery and is attempting to build a bull flag from the two-day spike through September 13th and must close out above first key resistance at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

 

Canadian (December)

Session close: Settled at .76895, up 2.5 ticks

Fundamentals: Canadian Foreign Minister Freeland said today that she will be back in Washington this week to continue talks in hopes of reaching a new NAFTA deal by October 1st. President Trump has threatened to leave Canada out of a deal with Mexico if the two sides cannot come together. While this seems extremely unlikely especially since Washington will be under greater pressure with the newly imposed $200 billion in tariffs on China, at this point, traders must prepare for any possibility. While we find the Canadian positioned very well for longer-term gains, it is under pressure due to the China tariffs and this also casts doubt in the near-term.

Technicals: The Canadian settled back below the .7698 pivot which begins to negate some of its near-term strength. However, what traders must watch most closely is first key support at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

This article is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with iBlue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


20444




Macro

GUOSEN Closing Bell (September 18)


MARKET

China equities surged about 2% in afternoon, as National Development and Reform Commission stressed to continue pushing infrastructure plans forward. Construction and Construction Material were the best performers, while no sector fell. Combined turnover for both markets was CNY 253.5 bn, up 22.64% dod.

 

 

Close

% Change

Vol (bn CNY)

%YTD

Shanghai

2699.95

1.82

113.03

-18.36

Shenzhen

8133.22

1.67

140.63

-26.33

CSI 300

3269.43

2.01

83.90

-18.89

ChiNext

1377.30

2.04

42.57

-21.42

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

Construction

600939

Construction Material

300345

Downward-leading

 

 

 

 

 

NEWS

*China’s No. 1 Hotpot Chain Said to Price $963 Million IPO at Top. Haidilao International Holding Ltd., China’s biggest hotpot restaurant chain, has raised $963 million after pricing its Hong Kong initial public offering at the top end of a marketed range, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The Beijing-based company sold 424.5 million shares at HK$17.80 apiece, the people said, asking not to be identified because the information is private. (Bloomberg)

 

FUND FLOW

Click here for more information about Guosen.

This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


20443




Technical Analysis

Tradable Patterns - Gold (GC) Consolidating Near 4 Month Downchannel Resistance


Gold (GC) edged higher yesterday, and continues what appears to be an effort to reverse a 4 plus month long downchannel.  GC remains poised to push higher the balance of this week on the continued vulnerability of the US Dollar to a deeper correction.  Significantly, GC is testing the weekly chart downchannel resistance, and consolidating near a similarly drawn downchannel resistance (on the daily chart).  Except for the daily Stochastics which droops slightly down, the weekly, daily and 4hr equivalents are bottomish.  I am long as of today at 1204.6, targeting the red zone (of the daily chart) for Friday.  The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I sometimes set my stops tighter).
 
Gold (CME GC Dec18) Weekly/Daily/4hr
 
 
Click here for today's technical analysis on Nasdaq100, EURUSD
 

As seen on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset, Interactive Brokers, Inside Futures and Zerohedge, Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures and spot FX markets can be analyzed to enhance trading performance. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, and interest rates), spot FX and cryptocurrency markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

 

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 

 


20442




Macro

PIMCO - Retail Dip Weighs on U.S. Core CPI Inflation - By Tiffany Wilding


U.S. core Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation lagged expectations in August, breaking from the recent trend of generally upward surprises from various wage and price reports.

Core CPI advanced 0.08% month over month, well under consensus expectations for a 0.2% rise, and the year-over-year rate ticked down to 2.2% (from 2.4% in July). The slower CPI reading follows positive revisions to unit labor cost inflation and an acceleration in average hourly earnings ­– and raises questions about the extent to which faster nominal wage inflation, which has been accompanied by faster productivity growth over the past year, will result in higher consumer price inflation.

Yesterday's report also confirms various Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants’ assertions that broader inflationary forces are manageable despite the historically low unemployment rate, and reinforces our view that a gradual pace of rate hikes remains appropriate for now.

 

Broad retail declines weigh down core CPI

Core CPI inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) was weighed down by the largest monthly drop in core retail goods (-0.5%) for this economic cycle, outside of the year-end holiday sales period (which has witnessed steeper discounting in recent years). Declines were broad-based but particularly notable in apparel, TVs and other electronics, sporting goods and toys.

Over the past several years, prices in these segments have generally declined amid higher competition from e-commerce retailers, including Amazon. Prices appeared to firm somewhat over the first half of the year, likely the result of rising input prices and the lagged effects of 2017 U.S. dollar depreciation across currencies in Asian countries, including China, that supply goods to the U.S. However, more recently the dollar has strengthened. While the lag for currency movements to spill over into consumer prices is generally thought to be around six to 12 months, it’s possible that currency-related price cuts are happening more quickly. While the August weakness could also be a one-off occurrence, we are keeping an eye on this trend.

                           

Medical goods and services dip

Medical goods and services prices also dropped in August, with notable declines in prices of medical equipment and supplies and non-prescription drugs. Industry reports indicate that Amazon’s 2015 entry into the business-to-business market for medical supplies has intensified competition in that segment and is resulting in mark-up compression similar to that in the retail sector.

 

Vehicle inflation cools

New and used vehicle inflation cooled after surging over the past three months on what appeared to be higher pass-through rates for rising steel and aluminum prices. The threat of the Trump administration levying higher tariffs on imported autos and trucks, which has now subsided somewhat, may have also contributed to the earlier price hikes. Notably, auto purchases have fallen in the three months since the price hikes, and consumer demand sensitivity to auto prices appears to be somewhat greater than during earlier post-crisis periods. This trend reaffirms our view, discussed in our July CPI note, that price sensitivity will likely limit the extent to which auto dealers can pass on rising input prices.

 

Shelter holds firm as airfare accelerates

Prices across other services categories also moderated in August, but key categories, including shelter, remained firm. Rents, owners’ equivalent rents and the more volatile hotels category all rose. Shelter inflation in large cities remained moderate, likely due to higher multifamily housing supply in large cities and a drop in Houston housing prices after a hurricane-related price jump in the first half of 2018. However, firmer shelter price trends elsewhere offset the impact. Lastly, airfare inflation accelerated to 2.4% month over month amid higher jet fuel prices.

Bottom line? The downside CPI surprise raises questions about the extent to which faster wage and input price inflation will result in higher consumer price inflation. The slower reading may also reinforce the FOMC view that inflation remains manageable and may continue to support a gradual pace of rate hikes.

For more of PIMCO’s views on the complex drivers of inflation in the U.S. and globally, please visit our inflation page.

--

Originally Posted On Sep 14, 2018

Tiffany Wilding is a PIMCO economist focusing on the U.S. and is a regular contributor to the PIMCO Blog.

DISCLOSURES

References to specific securities and their issuers are not intended and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase, sell or hold such securities. PIMCO products and strategies may or may not include the securities referenced and, if such securities are included, no representation is being made that such securities will continue to be included.

PIMCO is one of the world’s premier fixed investment managers. Since our founding in 1971 in Newport Beach, California, we have grown into a global organization with more than 2,150+ professionals united in a single purpose: creating opportunities for our clients in every environment. Our focus on excellence and our short- and long-term track record has encouraged institutions, financial advisors and millions of individual investors to entrust us with their assets. Visit PIMCO’s blog.

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This material has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission. PIMCO is a trademark of Allianz Asset Management of America L.P. in the United States and throughout the world. © 2018 PIMCO PIMCO Investments LLC, distributor, 1633 Broadway, New York, NY 10019, is a company of PIMCO.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from PIMCO and is being posted with PIMCO’s permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or PIMCO and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


20440




Macro

Schroders - Trade Wars Step Up, More To Come - By Keith Wade


Quickview: As the trade wars escalate we see no sign of agreement between the US and China. We assess the macro impact.

The US has announced tariffs on another $200 billion of imports from China, citing ongoing concerns over the theft of technology and forced transfer of intellectual property. The tariffs take effect next week and are initially set at 10% rising to 25% from 1 January next year. China has yet to respond, but the White House has warned that any retaliation will lead to tariffs on a further $267 billion of additional imports. China may bide its time, but we expect they will follow with tariffs on a further $60 billion of imports from the US.

For some time our assumption has been that we will eventually see tariffs on all the goods traded between China and the US. The red lines on each side are too ideological and entrenched to allow much room for manoeuvre. China sees its trade policies as an essential part of the growth strategy that will allow the economy to hurdle the middle-income trap, in line with its “Made in China 2025” policy. Meanwhile, President Trump came to power promising to put “America first” and he has assembled a team that believes China is a root cause of the decline in parts of the US economy.

Against such a backdrop, we have the makings of a chronic dispute that will go well beyond the mid-term elections in November. Whilst China has less scope to match the scale of goods covered by US tariffs it has plenty of opportunity to apply non-tariff barriers, apply restrictions and make life difficult for US companies operating in China. Those interested need only look at the experience of South Korean companies in the wake of the anti-missile system dispute.

In terms of macro impact, the latest tariffs will slow Chinese export growth to the US. The extent of the impact will depend on the price sensitivity of the goods involved and whether alternative sources of supply can be found. Movements in the exchange rate can also offset tariffs, although we do not expect China to devalue the renminbi in response. Model simulations suggest China’s export growth will be 2-5% weaker. Global growth would also be weaker as international trade slows. However, these effects will take time to come through and in the near term we may actually see a boost to China’s exports as US companies accelerate imports ahead of further tariffs. This will complicate interpretation of the impact and no doubt frustrate the Trump administration’s desire for a smaller bi-lateral deficit. Ultimately though, the effect will be stagflationary, as tariffs slow trade and uncertainty drags on capital investment, whilst the extra cost of imports adds to inflation.

--

Originally Posted on 18 September 2018

Important Information: This communication is marketing material. The views and opinions contained herein are those of the author(s) on this page, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Schroders communications, strategies or funds. This material is intended to be for information purposes only and is not intended as promotional material in any respect. The material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. It is not intended to provide and should not be relied on for accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Reliance should not be placed on the views and information in this document when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The value of an investment can go down as well as up and is not guaranteed. All investments involve risks including the risk of possible loss of principal. Information herein is believed to be reliable but Schroders does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Some information quoted was obtained from external sources we consider to be reliable. No responsibility can be accepted for errors of fact obtained from third parties, and this data may change with market conditions. This does not exclude any duty or liability that Schroders has to its customers under any regulatory system. Regions/ sectors shown for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy/sell. The opinions in this material include some forecasted views. We believe we are basing our expectations and beliefs on reasonable assumptions within the bounds of what we currently know. However, there is no guarantee than any forecasts or opinions will be realised. These views and opinions may change.  To the extent that you are in North America, this content is issued by Schroder Investment Management North America Inc., an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Schroders plc and SEC registered adviser providing asset management products and services to clients in the US and Canada. For all other users, this content is issued by Schroder Investment Management Limited, 31 Gresham Street, London, EC2V 7QA. Registered No. 1893220 England. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

Please remember past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Schroders and is being posted with Schroders’ permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Schroders and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


20441




1 2 3 4 5 2 1538

Offenlegungen

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