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Futures

FX Rundown


Euro (March)

Session close: Settled at 1.23565, down 83 ticks

Fundamentals: The Euro has had a tough two-session run since edging a new swing high early Friday at 1.25795. The price has reversed about 1.7% ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC Minutes and Thursday’s ECB Minutes, both from their late January meetings. The catalyst, mostly technical does boil down to some fundamentals. After a slightly better read on U.S CPI last week, U.S housing and consumer confidence data was much better than expected Friday. It is also important to note that the Yen was the leader on this most recent leg higher into Thursday night and was the first to begin fading (details below). Now, you will begin hearing all the Dollar bulls who were essentially wrong three times in January and many times in the months before screaming for vindication on this small pull back. But lets please remember that they have been wrong, at the bare minimum, for the last 5% and some even 10%. In Sunday’s Tradable Events this Week, we discussed how both the FOMC and ECB Minutes are expected to move markets. Much of this recent pull back is due to positioning and traders paring positions ahead of not only these releases but key Fed speakers throughout the week. Gaining new traction is the potential of German Bundesbank President Weidmann becoming the next ECB President. We believe that this old card that was always in play, but newer hawkish development has not even begun to be priced in and could be a key catalyst in sending the Euro above 1.30 later this year. Tomorrow, we look to German Manufacturing data at 2:30 am CT and the Eurozone read at 3:00. Philadelphia Fed President Harker speaks at 8:00 am CT, Manufacturing, Markit Composite and Services PMIs are all due at 8:45 and Existing Home Sales is at 9:00. The FOMC Minutes will be released at 1:00 pm CT and we look forward to what hike dissenter, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari says at 7:15 pm.

Technicals: On Thursday evening, we said the longer price action stays above 1.24805-1.2514, the more bullish it becomes; after edging a new high and testing major three-star resistance, it was trading back below this level by 6:00 am CT Friday morning. What does that mean? Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels. 

 

Yen (March)

Session close: Settled at .93365, down 85 ticks

Fundamentals: The Yen has led the way lower on this two-session U.S Dollar resurgence ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC Minutes. Price action ran into our rare major four-star resistance late Thursday night and this move is a combination of technicals and the underestimated power of officially reappointing BoJ chief Kuroda, which also came that evening. It was essentially a foregone conclusion that Prime Minister Abe was going to reappoint Kuroda, the architect of Japan’s ultra-loose monetary policy, but it was unnerving to those who position massively in the space that the official reappointment was delayed; was it a signal that policy tweaking or tightening was coming later this year? Japanese Trade Balance data Sunday night showed the first trade deficit since May though it was not as high as expected. Many are praising this as a sign of economic good times with rising imports, however, this read is more seasonal. Furthermore, imports missed expectations. Tonight, we look to Manufacturing PMI at 6:30 pm CT and Industries Activity data at 10:30. Also, Board Member Funo is due to speak at 7:10.

Technicals: We use major four-star levels only rarely to emphasize their importance and furthermore, we had no other resistance above here. We said Thursday evening that traders should capitalize against this level. Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels. 

 

Aussie (March)

Session close: Settled at .7878, down 28 ticks

Fundamentals: The Aussie Dollar retreated on the session but held well when compared to its peers versus the U.S Dollar. RBA Minutes last night were upbeat at best mentioning reduced unemployment and a pickup in global growth and inflation. However, they believe that further progress in inflation will only be gradual. Ultimately, we are seeing a bounce in the U.S Dollar with the failure in the Yen leading the way. This is a consolidation ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC Minutes. Out of Australia tonight is MI Leading Index at 5:30 pm CT and Wage and Construction data at 6:30 pm CT. The rest of the week is quiet on the Aussie data front.

Technicals: Friday’s session clung to our pivot level but today’s close was clearly below and though this opens the door for the sellers, first key support comes in at...  Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels. 

 

Canadian (March)

Session close: Settled at .7913, down 57 ticks

Fundamentals: Volatility in equity markets continue and this does not bode well for the Canadian Dollar. This was a poor session that saw Crude Oil hold ground well. The U.S Dollar is strengthening as shorts take profits ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC Minutes. There is no major data out of Canada until a key Retail Sales read on Wednesday. Tomorrow morning’s U.S data as well as the action in Crude now that the March contract has fallen off the board will be critical for the trade.

Technicals: Price action settled below major three-star support, a level that we have been eyeing as a line in the sand for quite some time. This level was rejected just about a week ago. Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels. 

 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

This article is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with iBlue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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Securities Lending

SLB Update: Largest Short Value


These were the 15 securities with largest short value on 02/16/18.


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Securities Lending

SLB Update: Highest Borrow Fees


These were the 15 securities with highest borrow fees on 02/16/18.

 

The analysis in this article is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


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Securities Lending

SLB Update: Hardest to Borrow


The following table shows the 15 hardest to borrow securities during the week of 2/13/18 – 2/19/18.

The analysis in this article is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


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Securities Lending

Dating Service Perfect Match for Buyers and Sellers


Dating Service Perfect Match for Buyers and Sellers

North America

Match Group Inc. (MTCH)-Making its debut on the hot stocks list this week is Match Group, the internet dating provider operating under a multitude of brands such as Match, Tinder and PlentyOfFish. With its offerings provided in 42 languages across 190 countries, the dating business is big and the share price performance over the last year has been a success. One year ago, the shares were trading at $17.04, but closed last week up some $24.52, or 144 percent, at $41.56, with almost $6 of that rise happening in the last week. Short sellers seem less romantic and more skeptical as short interest volume has been rising steadily since November. Getting into February, as the shares passed the $35 level, short interest grew much more rapidly, increasing by 51 percent since February 1, pushing utilization initially up to 94 percent, before diving back down to 80 percent as increased supply came to the market, presumably from more optimistic investors buying into the future of internet dating.

 

  1. Tesla Inc. (TSLA) – Down from the top pick last week, Tesla, has seen its share price rise and fall steeply over the last two weeks. February 2 saw the shares at $343.75, a week later they closed at $310.42 and at $335.49 last week. Short interest volumes were just as erratic, with volumes falling 8 percent in the first week, before bouncing back up 14 percent in the second, resulting in a net gain of around 5 percent. Utilization, by contrast, was unmoved in the first dip, remaining static at 71 percent, before rising to just 73 percent on the upswing. In each movement, the swing in lending activity was shadowed by a fall in supply as investors sold out of Tesla shares, then bought back in, soaking up the new demand as short sellers grabbed an additional 1.4 million shares. Such behavior seems to have characterized the recent history of Tesla, and the markets seeming inability to price the company correctly, either as a vehicle manufacturer, a technology company or a solar power utility. What seems certain, however, is that this behavior is likely to continue.

 

  1. SPDR Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) – This ETF tracks the US high yield corporate bond market and has an apt ticker of JNK. While short interest activity for ETF securities tends to be somewhat sporadic, borrowing activity for this issue has been relatively consistent through much of 2017, fluctuating between 40 and 60 million shares until the end of January. February has seen the short interest volumes jump to over 91 million shares, a rise of some 63 percent since February 1. The fund NAVs have been falling since the end of January, down just over one point from $36.70 to $35.68 one week ago. Last week saw a small recovery, with the ETF closing the week at $36.32, but with over 98 percent of the available assets being borrowed, it would suggest that some short sellers expect the junk bond market to come under renewed pressure.

 

  1. Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) – Fossil Group, the global fashion watch and jewelry company, has seen its shares slide gradually down over the last 12 months, from around $20.73 a year ago to a low of just $5.50 in November. Since then, the shares have fought back, reaching $8.38 one week ago, before some positive results and sales expectations catapulted the shares to close last week at $14.51, down from a midweek peak of almost $17, but still up 73 percent over the week. Short interest volume has been rising since November, adding some 82 percent in two distinct steps, at the start of November and January. Last week saw a new 12-month peak as well as a net reduction of 7 percent as short sellers closed some positions. This reduced the utilization levels from 96 percent to 91 percent, but the negative sentiment remains high, suggesting that the recent leap in value may not be sustained.

 

  1. Iconix Brands Group Inc. (ICON) – Making its debut on the hot stocks list this week is Iconix, the US apparel and accessories company with a large stable of brands. In 2014, the company shares were trading at over $43. Twelve months ago, they were worth just $9.30 and they closed last week at $1.65, a loss of 82 percent in the last 12 months alone. Short sellers appear to have ignored this opportunity over the last 12 months, having been highly active in 2016 when the shares changed little. Since the start of this year, however, volumes have jumped more than 176 percent, albeit from a low base, pushing utilization to over 96 percent mid-week, before settling back at 83 percent by the close. With little value left to absorb, this is a bold, if late, move by short sellers convinced Iconix is going to fall further.

 

  1. Under Armour Inc. (UAA) – Under Armour, the US sports apparel and accessories retailer, has been a regular member of the hot stocks list through 2017, last appearing in November as the shares struggled off 12-month lows of $11.40, down from a peak of $23.46. Short interest volume decreased toward the end of the year as the shares resisted falling further, and recovering to over $15 apiece by year end, pushing short sellers to bank their gains. However, entering 2018, short sellers began to add to their positions, increasing them by a net 19 percent as the shares dipped back under $13.50. Last week appears to have caught some by surprise, as the shares jumped to close the week at $17.36, a rise of 26 percent in one week, driven by surprisingly good revenue and sales growth. However, many believe the structural problems with the firm remain unsolved, a view validated by the short sellers holding over 90 percent of the available shares in the expectation of longer term decline.

DISCLAIMER: This document has been prepared by FIS Securities Finance LLC’s Astec Analytics business (“FIS”). The content of this document is intended for informational purposes only. FIS and its affiliates make no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. In no event shall FIS and its affiliates be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken by you or anyone else in reliance on or in connection with the information contained herein. FIS is not in any manner providing any type of brokerage or investment advisory services nor is it acting in any capacity as a broker-dealer or investment advisor and the document should not be a basis for making any investment or financial decision. You should seek the assistance of a financial or other professional advisor for advice before taking any action or making any decision based on the information contained herein.

 

This article is from FIS' Astec Analytics and is being posted with FIS' Astec Analytics' permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or FIS' Astec Analytics and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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