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Aktien

The Hammerstone Report - Mid-Morning Look


Lackluster trading ahead of the Thanksgiving Day holiday on light volumes, as U.S. major averages are trading just slightly below the all-time record highs posted late yesterday for the Dow Industrials, S&P 500, Nasdaq Comp and Russell 2000. Economic data came in mixed today with a surprising miss for monthly Durable Goods orders, while jobless claims were reported in-line and sentiment data dipped from the prior month, but markets await clues about whether the central bank will raise rates next month in the Fed minutes which are released at 2:00 PM EST today. The US dollar is broadly lower, while commodity prices gains (gold and oil) and bonds rising early. Mixed batch of earnings again overnight in what is wrapping an overall solid quarter of corporate results, with shares of DE and GME rising on results while tech players CRM, HPQ, HPE and retailers CAL and GES slide on results.

 

Treasuries, Currencies and Commodities

  • In currency markets, the U.S. dollar falls to lows of 111.61 against the Japanese yen (lowest levels in slightly over a month); and euro highs as well vs. USD as nears 1.18 (up 0.5%); the pound slipped initially vs. the dollar as UK 2018 economic growth forecast was lowered to 1.4% from 1.6%, and the 2019 prediction of 1.3% is far below economist projections – but has since rebounded
  • Commodity prices; Energy futures slip from highs after mixed inventory data; crude spiked overnight after the API inventory report showed a larger than expected drawdown in inventories of -6.4M barrels, but pared gains after the EIA showed smaller-than-expected draw of -1.85M vs. est. -2.2M and a surprise build in distillates of 269K (vs. est. -1.0M barrels). Crude also got a boost from the news of TRP’s decision to cut oil delivered to the US via the Keystone pipeline by 85% through the end of November; gold extends gains trading near $1,290 an ounce
  • Bonds posting early gains as yields slip; the 10-yr yield slips about 2 bps to below 2.34%, while the 2-yr yield dips to 1.74% after trading near 1.77% yesterday; mixed economic data (weak durable goods data but inline jobless claims) and a small pullback from record highs boosting bonds. Overnight, Fed Chair Yellen said one of the “biggest challenges” to the central bank remained inflation staying below its 2% target.

 

Economic Data

  • Weekly Jobless Claims fell 13K to 239K, mostly in-line with the 240K estimate while the prior week was upwardly revised to 252K from 249K; the 4-week moving avg. rose 1,250 to 239.75k in the week ending Nov. 18; continuing claims rose 36K to 1.904M in the week ending Nov. 11
  • U.S. durable goods orders fall (-1.2%) in October, compared to an estimated gain of 0.3%, while the prior month was upwardly revised to 2.2% from 2%; new orders ex-trans. rose 0.4% in Oct. after 1.1% rise while new orders ex-defense fell 0.8% in Oct. after 2.4% rise; non-defense capital goods orders ex-aircraft fell 0.5% in Oct. after rising 2.1% in Sept.
  • The U.S. November-Final Michigan Sentiment fell to 98.5 from 100.7 last month and was mostly in-line with an expected 98 reading; the expectations index fell to 88.9 vs. 90.5 last month, while the current economic conditions index fell to 113.5 vs. 116.5 last month
  • The 30-Yr fixed mortgage rate for week ended today fell to 3.92% from 3.95%, Freddie Mac said; 15-year rate avg 3.32%, up from 3.31% a week earlier and 5/1-year ARM rate avg 3.22%, up from 3.21% a week earlier.

Sector Movers Today

  • Industrial & Machinery; Agriculture machinery stocks active after DE posted Q4 top/bottom line results that handily topped estimates as did its 2018 net income forecast citing improving markets for farm and construction equipment (shares of CNHI, AGCO, LNN, CAT have performed well this year); ROK said today its Board of Directors has unanimously rejected EMR’s unsolicited proposal to acquire the company received on November 16, 2017 ($29B bid)
  • Consumer Staples & Restaurants; BLMN was downgraded to neutral at Bank America following rally in shares as Jana revealed stake in company; CBRL was downgraded at Longbow; PG has notified independent inspector IVS Associates it will challenge the proxy vote recount that narrowly gave activist investor Nelson Peltz a victory and a board seat, CNBC reported

 

Stock GAINERS

  • AXTA +4%; Nippon Paint Holdings Co Ltd made an all-cash offer to acquire AXTA, ending merger talks between Axalta and Dutch peer Akzo Nobel https://goo.gl/zb8Ypx
  • CPRT +11%; after Q1 EPS beat by 6c on higher revs of $419.2M
  • DE +3%; posted Q4 top/bottom line results that handily topped estimates as did its 2018 net income forecast
  • GME +11%; 3Q results exceeded estimates helped by an increase in new hardware and software sales/but analysts warn about lower pre-owned margins
  • TIVO +7%; won a federal patent ruling against CMCSA as the U.S. ITC ruled that Comcast set-top boxes violated two patents of Rovi Corp

 

Stock LAGGARDS

  • BZUN -14%; after mixed Q3 results
  • CAL -4%; posted 3Q sales and EPS softer than expectations due mostly to weather yet showed upside on gross margin and reiterated the FY17 outlook
  • CRM -2%; strong Q3 results including a big billings beat of up 24% YoY vs. est. up 13%, but forward bookings and EPS outlook came in slightly light of street expectations
  • GES -13%; after Q3 EPS sales missed forecasts while EPS was in-line, and guidance mid-point missed estimates
  • HPE -8%; announced CEO Meg Whitman stepping down early next year and will be succeeded by President Antonio Neri/also guides Q1 EPS below views after Q4 beat
  • HPQ -6%; mixed Q1 results as solid top line was offset by weaker margins and EPS was in line
  • MNK -2%; downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer saying he's been "flat out wrong"
  • ROK -1%; said today its Board of Directors has unanimously rejected EMR’s unsolicited proposal to acquire the company received on November 16, 2017 ($29B bid)

 

The content of this post was created by the Hammerstone Group. The Hammerstone Institutional Forum, a chat-based platform for traders, provides subscribers with up-to-the-minute breaking news headlines and instant analysis that drive the market. For more information please visit www.thehammerstone.com. For more information on the stocks mentioned in the Hammerstone Recap, please contact Brian Ducey at brian@thehammerstone.com.

This article is from the Hammerstone Group and is being posted with the Hammerstone Group's permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or the Hammerstone Group and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 

15447




Macro

WTI Crude Oil


For those who did not see it, last night’s report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on WTI crude oil inventory declined by -6.36m/bbl, or more than 4.4-times the reduction analysts expect the Department of Energy to show later today of -1.43m/bbl.

The key is to not look at this in isolation. Over the last 10 weeks, crude oil inventories in the United States have shed more than 46 million barrels (Source: API).

Put another way, not only was last night’s draw larger than the 10-week average but it also brings WTI one step closer to the 5-year average of comparative inventory for the first time in three years.

There were two reactions to this data worth pointing out.

Firstly, the front-month contract for WTI oil futures turned more expensive than the second-month contract. The market has not settled in that structure, known as backwardation, since November 2014. Additionally, the move put the entire WTI curve through 2021 into backwardation for the first time.

Secondly, the WTI-Brent spread has begun to react. As a way of background, some of this spread is a “fear premium” because of tensions in the Middle East – the GCC boycott of Qatar, the Iraqi Kurdish independence referendum, the Saudi Arabia proxy wars, etc. However, that geopolitical risk premium has not subsided. If anything, it has increased. Therefore, we know that some of it is also a buildup of inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma storage facility and WTI pricing point. That means, WTI is tightening relative to Brent for the first time primarily because of US inventories. As you can see, the spread broke the 50-day moving average today.

As a reminder, we view the 200-day moving average (DMAVG) as a short-term trend change, the 55-week moving average (WMAVG) as a medium-term trend change, and the 200-week moving average (WMAVG) as a cycle change.

Collectively, the generic contract of WTI is a stone throw away from breaking the 200-week moving average, or what we consider a cycle change.

To see the remainder of today's edition, please sign up for a subscription to Sight Beyond Sight through Interactive Brokers.

Sight Beyond Sight® is a global macro trading newsletter written daily by Neil Azous. With close to two decades of institutional experience across asset classes, Neil interprets the day-to-day economic, policy and strategy developments and provides actionable trading ideas for investors. We invite clients of Interactive Brokers to sign up for a free trial in Account Management. If you are not a client of IB, you can sign up for a free trial by visiting our website.

This article is from Rareview Macro and is being posted with Rareview Macro’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Rareview Macro and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


15445




Securities Lending

Shorts in Action: Short Sellers Continue to Build Positions in Roku After IPO


Roku Inc. (ROKU)

Making its debut in the first week of October, this early player in streaming video gadgets had only been trading in the public market since September 28. With an IPO price of $14 a share, long investors, who were able to secure shares, appear to have got a bargain, given that the shares have risen some 176 percent since, closing last week at $38.59. As is common with new IPO stocks, short sellers are quick to take positions, utilizing as much stock as is available in the hope of being in a position to take advantage of any bubbles that may form. Roku provided some relief as the shares fell through October and into November, just as short sellers increased their trade volume by 25 percent, driving utilization up from 75 percent to 87 percent. Since then, volumes have jumped some 44 percent as new supply has become available, pushing utilization down to 78 percent, even after the volume increase. The share price has also jumped, exceeding $38 a share, but even with that leap, short sellers appear unperturbed and content to wait it out.

 

1.       Snap Inc. (SNAP) – Snap, the owner of the popular Snapchat app, has been around since March, making it a lot older than Roku, but still a new share. The last week saw the share price appreciate just $0.23 or 2 percent, closing the week at $12.99, still over 52 percent below the post IPO peak. Short sellers appear reluctant to leave Snap alone, adding a further 8 percent to the volume of their outstanding positions. However, long investors are also expressing interest in Snap once more, bringing new supply to the market pushing utilization down to 94 percent from almost 98 percent, despite the rise in absolute volumes. A small movement in the share price, plus a drop in utilization, could be taken as positive signs, but it will be a long road back for Snap, and short interest sentiment remains dominant.

2.       GoPro Inc. (GPRO) – This last week has delivered more of the same market behavior toward GoPro as short sellers closed out a further 2 percent of their outstanding positions. However, similar to the prior week, utilization actually increased, albeit by only 1 percent even as absolute volumes fell. The shares continued their slide downwards, closing down $0.22 or 2 percent to close the week at $8.29. This latest drop could well be in line with the fall in lendable supply, as larger institutional investors continue to sell out of their GoPro holdings, potentially concerned that, in line with multiple analyst downgrades for the company’s fourth quarter earnings, it will be some time before GoPro can return to the share price levels of almost $12 seen earlier this year.

3.       Accelerate Diagnostics Inc. (AXDX) – Making its debut this week is Accelerate Diagnostics, a provider of in vitro diagnostic solutions helping to track serious infections. Around mid-year, the company shares were hitting their 12-month peak of over $30 a share and have since declined a net 40 percent to a low of around $18 in November. Short interest volumes have remained relatively flat since the start of 2017, but as a percentage of the available supply have risen steadily from an already high level of over 85 percent to over 95 percent in September. Volumes began to rise more steeply through October, adding more than 25 percent in absolute terms, pushing utilization up to just under 99 percent. A growing supply of shares has allowed the short sellers more room to borrow shares, with long investors buying into the company as its share price staged a sharp recovery in November, closing last week at $22.45, up $4 from the 12-month low.

4.       Entercom Communications Corp. (ETM) – Another new debut stock this week is Entercom, the local, regional and national radio broadcaster operating a portfolio of 28 stations across the US. Over the past 12 months, the company share price has fallen from a peak of over $16 in February to lows of less than $9.50 by May. A recovery to over $12 in October was brief but following another fall, the shares have climbed back to close last week at $11.45. Short interest had been near zero until the start of 2017, when a slow but sure increase began, accelerating more quickly through October and November. The latter half of October saw utilization breach the 75 percent, pushing the cost of borrowing to rise rapidly as remaining supply dwindles. As of last week’s close, utilization had reached over 89 percent and fee levels were firmly into the expensive zone. Despite this and the recent rise in share price, short sellers appear committed to waiting for further falls.

5.      Carvana Co. (CVNA) – Carvana, the e-commerce platform for buying used cars through a mobile app, came to the market via an IPO in April this year. Making its debut on the hot stocks list this week, Carvana has seen its post-IPO share price peak of $23.39, seen in June, steadily eroded to a closing value last week of $15.50. While this remains above the IPO price, the drop of some 34 percent from the peak will have cheered the short sellers who, in line with many new similar shares, built their positions quickly post the IPO. Since May, short interest volume has risen over 320 percent, but utilization, despite a dip as low as 65 percent in June and July, has remained above 90 percent for most of the time. Short sellers have been borrowing almost every share that became available in the expectation that the shares will fall in price, and have been rewarded with a 34 percent fall since June. Utilization remains at 100 percent, as at the end of last week, despite very high borrowing costs, suggesting that many believe the long-term sustainability of the share price is poor.

 

DISCLAIMER: This document has been prepared by FIS Securities Finance LLC’s Astec Analytics business (“FIS”). The content of this document is intended for informational purposes only. FIS and its affiliates make no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. In no event shall FIS and its affiliates be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken by you or anyone else in reliance on or in connection with the information contained herein. FIS is not in any manner providing any type of brokerage or investment advisory services nor is it acting in any capacity as a broker-dealer or investment advisor and the document should not be a basis for making any investment or financial decision. You should seek the assistance of a financial or other professional advisor for advice before taking any action or making any decision based on the information contained herein.
 

This article is from FIS' Astec Analytics and is being posted with FIS' Astec Analytics' permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or FIS' Astec Analytics and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


15424




Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis (Gold, Dollar, Oil and more) heading into Wednesday's open with Dan Gramza


Dan Gramza takes a look at some key charts heading into Wednesday's open, including gold, oil and the dollar. 

This Daily Market Studies are presented by an unaffiliated third party and Interactive Brokers LLC does not create the content of these presentations. You should review the contents of each presentation and make your own judgment as to whether the content is appropriate for you. Interactive Brokers LLC does not provide recommendations or advice. This presentation is not an advertisement or solicitation for new customers. It is intended only as an educational presentation.

This video is from Dan Gramza and is being posted with Dan Gramza’s permission. The views expressed in this video are solely those of the author and/or Dan Gramza and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the video. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


15443




Aktien

Giving Thanks


Yesterday provided more proof that investors have a lot to be thankful for this year, as the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all hit new record highs.  It remains to be seen if there is more where that came from, but for now, the futures for the major indices aren't exposing much of a selling inclination.

The S&P futures are up one point, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up seven points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 35 points, setting the stage for a slightly higher open and a continuation of the feel-good vibe that typically predominates this time of year.

The seasonality trade for stocks was in play yesterday as the major indices took a few feet of positive-sounding developments and ran a mile with it.  Not surprisingly, the technology sector paced the broad-based advance.

Today's action is likely to be less dramatic, if only for the fact that yesterday's outsized move left plenty of participants convinced that the turkey-day work was done and that the time has arrived to settle in for the Thanksgiving holiday, which will have markets closed tomorrow and open for only a half day of trading on Friday.

Accordingly, volume is apt to be on the light side of things today, which features a fair share of economic data and the release of the FOMC Minutes from the October 31-November 1 meeting at 2:00 p.m. ET.

On a related note, Fed Chair Yellen said on a panel last night that she still thinks inflation will pick up, but that she is very uncertain about that prognostication.

The back end of the Treasury curve certainly hasn't been pricing in much fear of inflation picking up as the yield on the 10-yr note (2.36%) is 12 basis points lower than where it was when the year started.

This morning's data is unlikely to be a catalyst that changes the inflation narrative for the Treasury market.

Initial claims for the week ending November 18 decreased by 13,000 to 239,000, as expected, leaving claims in the sweet spot they have been for some time.  Continuing claims for the week ending November 11 increased by 36,000 to 1.904 million.

The key takeaway from the report is that it covers the period in which the household survey for the November employment report was conducted, so it should feed economists' expectations for another solid month of nonfarm payroll gains.

The Durable Goods Orders report for October, meanwhile, revealed a 1.2% decrease in orders (Briefing.com consensus +0.4%) that was led by a 4.3% drop in new orders for transportation equipment.  Excluding transportation, orders were up 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus +0.5%) on the heels of an upwardly revised 1.1% increase (from +0.7%) for September.

Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft -- a proxy for business spending -- decreased 0.5% after increasing 2.1% in September and 1.4% in August.  Shipments of these goods, which factor into GDP forecasts, were up 0.4% after increasing 1.2% in September.

The key takeaway from the report is that business spending decelerated in October, yet there is little reason at this juncture to think that deceleration is more than some normal slowing following some nice-sized gains in previous months.

The futures weakened a bit after the release of the data, yet there hasn't been much downside traction there like there will be on plenty of living room couches on Thursday.

Happy Thanksgiving!

--Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com

 

This article is from Briefing.com and is being posted with Briefing.com's permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Briefing.com and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 

15442




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Offenlegungen

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