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Futures

Blue Line Futures - Midday Market Minute


Are stocks set for a surge higher? 

 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with Blue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in this material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


19756




Aktien

Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk - Equity Market Insight August 14, 2018


As of 10:27 AM EDT:

NASDAQ Composite +0.26% Dow +0.30% S&P 500 +0.41% Russell 2000 +0.78%

NASDAQ Advancers: 1451 Decliners: 704

Today’s Volume (First Hour) +3.2%

 

The US markets opened broadly higher this morning in keeping with a more positive tone overseas.  The Turkish lira recovered over 5% overnight and the Indian Rupee stabilized. Most European and Asia equity markets are a little higher, but China was the exception with markets closed modestly lower on soft economic data.  Except for the macro items, the news flow is generally quiet.  The major US indices are all in the green as are most sectors with Energy (+0.8%) leading and Materials (+0.7%) recouping some of yesterday’s losses.  Treasuries are weaker, the dollar index is flat and gold recovers 0.5%. 

 

  • In its Monthly Oil Report out yesterday, OPEC sees global demand growth for crude oil stalling.  In their July report OPEC expected demand would expand in 2019 by about 1.5% but now that shifts to a -0.02% decline.  OPEC cites emerging challenges including political and trade-related uncertainties.  Their current forecast expects no significant increases in tariffs or trade restrictions, although those barriers seem to be increasing.  Recall last week the IEA lowered its demand growth projections, also citing trade uncertainty.  One other notable item in the report – the Saudis reduced production in July to avoid oversupply and that has the price of crude up 1.2% this morning. 

 

  • The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) lowered its projected GDP growth from 3.3% in April to 3.1% for this year and left its projection for 2019 at 2.4%.  The report notes that a number of factors that led to 4.1% GDP growth in Q2 will fade or reverse by year’s end.  The report also comments that the federal budget deficit is on track to top $1 trillion by 2020 although total federal borrowing will be the $1.33 trillion neighborhood this calendar year according to the Treasury Department.

 

  • China’s economic growth slowed in July due to the trade war and tighter lending standards.  Industrial production rose a healthy 6% but missed expectations; retail sales grew 8.8% but that’s down from June and below expectations; fixed-asset investments rose 5.5% in the first seven months of the year and that’s the slowest since 1999.  Gene Ma, chief China economist at the Institute of International Finance in Washington commented “tighter policies on shadow credit inevitably hurt small and private businesses. Rising trade tension started to hurt confidence, but not yet the real growth as exporters moved up their exports.”

 

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Nasdaq's Market Intelligence Desk (MID) Team includes: 

Charles Brown is Associate Vice President on the Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk with over 20 years of equity capital markets experience. Charlie has extensive knowledge of equity trading on both floor and screen based marketplaces. Charlie assists with the management of The Market Intelligence Desk and works with Nasdaq listed companies providing them with insightful objective trading analysis.

Steven Brown is a Managing Director on the Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk with over twenty years of experience in equities. With a focus on client retention he currently covers the Financial, Energy and Media sectors.

Christopher Dearborn is a Managing Director on the Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk. Chris has over two decades of equity market experience including floor and screen based trading, corporate access, IPOs and asset allocation. Chris is responsible for providing timely, accurate and objective market and trading-related information to Nasdaq-listed companies.

Brian Joyce, CMT is a Managing Director on the Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk. Before joining Nasdaq, Brian spent 16 years as an institutional trader executing equity and options orders for both the buy side and sell side. He also provided trading ideas and wrote technical analysis commentary for an institutional research offering. Brian focuses on helping Nasdaq’s Financial, Healthcare and Transportation companies, among others, understand the trading in their stock. Brian is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT).

Michael Sokoll, CFA is a Senior Managing Director on the Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk with over 25 years of equity market experience. In this role, he manages a team of professionals responsible for providing Nasdaq-listed companies with real-time trading analysis and objective market information.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Nasdaq and is being posted with Nasdaq’s permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Nasdaq and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


19754




Technical Analysis

Nasdaq - Technical Take


Can Small Caps Follow the Dollar’s Lead?

The US dollar’s (DXY) breakout of a two month range last week should bode well for the small cap Russell 2000 index (RTY Index) which itself has been in a two month consolidation range.  The Russell peaked back on June 20th and has since been carving out what has developed into a bullish ascending triangle pattern.  Resistance is not far above at 1,708.  A breakout carries a minimum measured move to 1,786 +5.8% from current levels.  All moving averages are properly lined up and rising, while the daily RSI’s have held the bullish zone now at 53. 

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Nasdaq's Market Intelligence Desk (MID) Team includes: 

Charles Brown is Associate Vice President on the Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk with over 20 years of equity capital markets experience. Charlie has extensive knowledge of equity trading on both floor and screen based marketplaces. Charlie assists with the management of The Market Intelligence Desk and works with Nasdaq listed companies providing them with insightful objective trading analysis.

Steven Brown is a Managing Director on the Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk with over twenty years of experience in equities. With a focus on client retention he currently covers the Financial, Energy and Media sectors.

Christopher Dearborn is a Managing Director on the Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk. Chris has over two decades of equity market experience including floor and screen based trading, corporate access, IPOs and asset allocation. Chris is responsible for providing timely, accurate and objective market and trading-related information to Nasdaq-listed companies.

Brian Joyce, CMT is a Managing Director on the Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk. Before joining Nasdaq, Brian spent 16 years as an institutional trader executing equity and options orders for both the buy side and sell side. He also provided trading ideas and wrote technical analysis commentary for an institutional research offering. Brian focuses on helping Nasdaq’s Financial, Healthcare and Transportation companies, among others, understand the trading in their stock. Brian is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT).

Michael Sokoll, CFA is a Senior Managing Director on the Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk with over 25 years of equity market experience. In this role, he manages a team of professionals responsible for providing Nasdaq-listed companies with real-time trading analysis and objective market information.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Nasdaq and is being posted with Nasdaq’s permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Nasdaq and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


19755




Futures

Blue Line Futures - Morning Express


E-mini S&P (September)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 2825.50, down 11.25

Fundamentals: This morning brings a reprieve from turmoil; the Turkish Lira has bounced back as much as 8% before settling in. The story will continue to develop, and an agreement to release the American pastor will certainly be favorable for the global risk appetite. While the damage to the world’s currency market has been done, we maintain that it is important to not get stuck in the forest so that you can see the trees; there can be a lot of noise in the headlines, especially during slower summer months. Major U.S. benchmarks battled yesterday and while banks, materials and energies were under pressure, tech was a bright spot. The NQ is up almost 0.5% this morning and both it and the S&P never traded down to yesterday’s settlement in the overnight hours; this can set a bullish tone through today. In last night’s FX Rundown, we pointed to economic data out of Europe today as an opportunity to shift gears away from the turmoil in Turkey. Stronger than expected GDP data from both Germany and the Eurozone has helped this cause and offset weak numbers out of China last night. Even more importantly, earnings are back in focus with a blowout announcement from Home Depot. The stock is up almost 2% and unofficially kicks off a stream of retail earnings this week. Import and Export Price Index data is due at 7:30 am CT. Retail Sales tomorrow morning is the headliner this week.

Technicals: Do not ever doubt how technically driven this market is. We have minor resistance and minor support surrounding our major three-star level at 2836-2837 and much of the range over the last 24 hours has stayed contained within here. Support at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

 

Crude Oil (September)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 67.20, down 0.43

Fundamentals: There are two characteristics about yesterday’s failure at resistance, 3% drop, rejection of a new swing low and reversal to retest unchanged. The first, it was about as technical as it gets (we will discuss in the ‘Technical’ section below). The second being very bullish. Price action fell out of bed once it broke key support at 67.04, a level in which we said, “will encourage further waves of selling”. Genscape released data yesterday pointing to a build at Cushing last week. Over the last several weeks we have emphasized the importance of draws at Cushing and the market did not digest this news very well; hence the exacerbated selling. In OPEC’s Monthly Report yesterday, they said Saudi output dropped by 200,000 bpd in July; headlines this morning point to this drop as a main catalyst in the positive tape. Ultimately, that’s because there is no other narrative to help explain such a vicious recovery. Realistically though, Saudi Arabia’s drop in July’s output was known at 6:00 am CT yesterday, yet the market still sold off. Emerging market fears along with Cushing led to selling below 67.04 and the buyers were not lining up during a summer session amid uncertainty. Yes, less output from Saudi Arabia (spare capacity issues) and ongoing concerns with Iran are both reasons at the end of the day why the buyers showed up; both are reasons why we have been bullish, remain bullish and believe this market is heading to $80.

Technicals: Price action this morning is out above 67.70 but a failure to close above here today will be very disappointing and would likely lead to profit taking from the bulls. While 67.70 was not a major three-star level, it was a strong resistance. In fact, major three-star resistance sits at ...  Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

Gold (December)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 1198.9, down 20.1

Fundamentals: Gold failed to rally as a safe haven but has held ground this morning amid Treasury yields rising slightly and emerging market fears dissipating. The U.S. Dollar has inadvertently been used as a weapon in the global landscape. Whether it be in trade talks or sanctions, the U.S. Dollar has been the safe-haven play as other currencies are rocked due to new waves of uncertainty. This has been extremely detrimental to Gold which reached the lowest level since March of last year. The Chinese Yuan nudged a new low against the Dollar overnight after Industrial Production and Fixed Asset Investment data missed. However, it has settled in and Gold did not take out yesterday’s low, yet. GDP data out of Europe was stronger than expected and this helped stopped the bleeding in the Euro. Import and Export Price Index is due at 7:30 am CT.

Technicals: Gold settled below 1200 for the first time since January 30, 2017. Really, not all that long ago. It is testing into the March 2017 low of 1194.5 and yesterday’s washout was basically a necessary factor after Gold could not gain any traction in the 1220’s. For now, we once again must Neutralize our Bias in the near-term until a close back above major three-star resistance at ...  Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with Blue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in this material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


19751




Macro

Briefing.com - Getting Technical with the Turkish Lira and Fundamental with Home Depot's Report


Equity index futures are trading higher this morning, which is paving the way to a higher start for the cash market. Currently, the S&P futures are up eight points and are trading 0.4% above fair value.  The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 26 points and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 68 points.

The upside bias is being attributed primarily to a rebound in the Turkish lira and emerging market currencies, as well as the encouraging earnings report and outlook from Dow component Home Depot (HD).

The move in the lira can only be characterized as a technical bounce following the huge losses incurred over the past two sessions.  After all, it's not like there has been a thawing in U.S. relations with Turkey. To that end, CNBC reports that Turkish President Erdogan said Turkey will boycott U.S. electronics, including Apple's (AAPL) iPhone.

Some are pointing to the idea of the Turkish central bank providing liquidity support as the basis for the rebound in the currency, yet the central bank made that announcement before yesterday's open and the lira didn't move up against the dollar on Monday; hence, the conclusion that the lira -- and other currencies -- are being driven more by technical action than anything else.

Even so, the technical bounce has put a little spring in the U.S. market's step after four straight losing sessions.  The question is, will the market maintain a bullish stride into the close or will it get tripped up, like it did on Monday, with an inclination to sell into the strength?

Shares of Home Depot will be lending support.  They are indicated 2.6% higher after the home improvement retailer easily topped the consensus second quarter earnings estimate on strong same-store sales and raised its full-year guidance.

Home Depot's report will be a positive for the retail industry and consumer discretionary sector, as will the earnings report from Advance Auto Parts (AAP), which also topped consensus estimates and raised its full-year revenue guidance.  Shares of AAP are up 6.3%.

Look for the energy sector to forge a rebound try, too.  Oil prices are up 1.3% to $68.03 per barrel.  That move will presumably put some wind in the sails of the energy stocks, which comprised the worst-performing sector on Monday.

With the positive tone in the futures market, it is also reasonable to expect some leadership out of the information technology sector, which usually runs out front in a risk-on trading environment.

Remarkably, the market hasn't gotten too caught up on the weaker than expected data reported by China last night.  Industrial production (+6.0% yr/yr), fixed asset investment (+5.5% yr/yr), and retail sales (+8.8% yr/yr) for July all fell short of expectations and year-over-year growth rates were either in-line with, or slightly softer, than the prior month.

There is some modest weakness in copper prices ($2.72/lb, -$0.01), but other than that, the data have been glossed over amid the fixation on the currency trade.

There hasn't been much fixation either on the Import-Export Price Index for July.

Import prices were unchanged after declining an upwardly revised 0.1% (from -0.4%) in June.  Excluding fuel, import prices were down 0.3% for the second month in a row.  Export prices declined 0.5% after increasing 0.2% in June.  Excluding agricultural products, export prices were unchanged after increasing an unrevised 0.4% in June.

On a year-over-year basis, nonfuel import prices were up a tame 1.3%.  Non-agricultural export prices, on the other hand, were up 5.0%.

The key takeaway from the report is that it seemingly reflects some of the effects of a stronger dollar as nonfuel import prices declined month-over-month in both June and July.

--Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com

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Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Briefing.com and is being posted with Briefing.com's permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Briefing.com and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


19753




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Offenlegungen

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