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Futures

Blue Line Futures - Morning Express


E-mini S&P (March)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 2555.75, down 46.25

Fundamentals: U.S. benchmarks are marginally higher after sharp selling yesterday pinned the S&P at the lowest close since October 2017. Our narrative has been that seasonal tailwinds, a less hawkish Fed and market pessimism should prove that daily dips are a buying opportunity up until the last week of the year. Nothing has changed with this view, in fact, each reason is arguably more valid today than any prior. Through this year, we turned bearish at the end of January, called for a correction in June and held a strongly bearish view through September and the first half of October. We also had a Bearish Bias here calling the post G-20 Summit rally overdone. We remind you this because we are not simply buyers of every dip in this market. Doubling down, we have also reiterated a view for months now that once the calendar year turns this market could be in store for even more volatility and potentially a much deeper correction.

German Ifo Business Climate fell short of expectations this morning. U.S. Building Permits and Housing Starts are due at 7:30 am CT. Lastly, the Federal Reserve begins their two-day policy meeting today and the probability of a rate hike tomorrow is now at 71.5%. We still hold the view that the Federal Reserve will be less hawkish or even dovish in their policy statement, economic projections and dot plot to bubble wrap their hike of 25 basis points. We also still feel that considering the current state of market pessimism at this level, the market is undervalued over the coming days.

Technicals: Yesterday was the latest bloodbath in a down market and by our view, the one that broke a nearly two-year long bull market. We must take this time to reiterate our view that the market is undervalued through this week on a technical and fundamental basis. However, the S&P incurred the death cross on December 7th, the NQ on November 29th and the Russell 2000 all the way back on November 12th. The last piece to this puzzle has been the Dow and it is about to see the death cross any day now. Furthermore, our technical indicator line in the sand was tied to the Dow and stood at 23,980. Yesterday was the first close below here while Friday’s close was the first below an uptrend line created from the February low. With all of this considered, it is highly like this market has lower to go. Still, we again reiterate that it is undervalued below 2600 in the very near-term.

Yesterday’s early recovery failed at the exact point in which it was supposed to; Friday’s closing gap. Rallies in this down market have failed each time at first and second resistance since the death cross has been incurred. Today, our momentum indicators bring resistance at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels

 

 

Crude Oil (February)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 50.20, down 1.27

Fundamentals: Crude has been a dog form two months now and yesterday’s risk-off move in global markets made Crude an easy casualty. Headlines this morning point to the fear of record supply from the U.S. and Russia and concerns over the OPEC deal. This is a great example of headlines creating a story in order to cater to a move. There was no new news, this was all just as known as it was last week and the one prior. Traders simply looked to this dog upon a sharply directional risk-off move. In fact, estimated production in the U.S. fell by 100,000 bpd in last week’s EIA report and on Friday Baker Hughes reported the lowest rig count in two months. As this week unfolds, comments from OPEC will certainly be held in a high regard. Inventory data will be just as crucial as expectations begin trickling out. Lastly, the Dollar; not only is a weaker Dollar supportive to commodities but a weaker Dollar this week will signal a slower Fed and one that could boost hopes of Oil demand in 2019.

Technicals: Yesterday’s move below the psychological $50 mark was the one that broke the camels back. Any potential constructive over recent weeks is now damaged and the only support level we are looking at is major three-star support at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

 

Gold (February)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 1251.8, up 10.4

Fundamentals: Gold is holding strongly and finding support from Dollar weakness amidst equity market turmoil. In fact, the two are intertwined and rather than the Dollar being a safe-haven, heightened equity market volatility is furthering speculation that the Fed will be less hawkish or even dovish which is very supportive to the metal. This aligns perfectly with such a seasonally bullish time of year for Gold in the back half of December and through January. Also providing a tailwind is falling Treasury yields and the inversion of the 5yr and 2yr yield. The Fed begins their two-day policy meeting today and there is a probability of 71.5% that they hike tomorrow. More importantly, traders should keep an eye on the dissipating March odds for a second hike; currently at 17.8%, down from 36.2% one month ago and 25.8% one week ago. Today, Building Permits and Housing Starts came in better than expected.

Technicals: We have been and remain unequivocally Bullish in Bias Gold. Price action is holding strongly at major three-star resistance at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with Blue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in this material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


22047




Aktien

The Hammerstone Report - Early Look


Index

Up/Down

%

Last

DJ Industrials

101.00

0.43%

23,786

S&P 500

11.50

0.46%

2,567

Nasdaq

40.50

0.63%

6,530

 

 

U.S. stock futures are pointing to a higher open, looking to rebound after yesterday’s market rout, while US Treasury yields fall to their lowest levels in months (10-year around 2.80%) and oil prices plunge further, with WTI crude falling below $50 per barrel (to fresh 1-year lows) and Brent crude dropping below $60 per barrel amid persistent concerns over supplies and a broader fall this week in risk assets. Better earnings out of software giant Oracle and large share repurchase plans from Dow components Boeing and J&J are lifting averages. Investors remain nervous ahead of Tuesday's start of the two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting, amid fears the central bank may be too hasty with an expected interest-rate hike. Stocks tumbled again on Monday as the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by more than 500 points marking its lowest close of 2018, the S&P 500 index declined by 2.1% at 2,545 touching its lowest levels since October 2017, while the Nasdaq Composite Index ended 157 points, or 2.3%, lower at 6,754. The declines coming fresh off an ugly Friday session that saw the Dow enter correction territory (a drop of at least 10% from a recent peak). Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield dipped over 3 bps to 2.86%, pulling back from its Friday highs as investors fled to the safety of government bonds. Health-care stocks were among the biggest decliners after a Federal judge ruled that Obamacare unconstitutional. Next up, the Fed concludes its rate-setting meeting on Wednesday at 2:00 PM EST. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index followed US markets lower, dropping -391 points (1.8%) to settle at 21,115, the Shanghai Index dropped -21 points to 2,576 and the Hang Seng Index fell -273 points to 25,814. In Europe markets are mixed as the German DAX is higher by 40 points above 10,800, while the FTSE 100 slips around -20 points at 6,750. Markets are also fearful ahead of this week’s potential government shutdown by President Trump amid in-house opposition about building of the wall. Also yesterday, China cut its holdings of US Treasuries in October for a fifth consecutive month amid a broader, declining foreign demand for US government debt.

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

  • The S&P 500 Index plunged -54.01 points, or 2.08%, to 2,545.94
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -507.53 points, or 2.11%, to 23,592.98
  • The Nasdaq Composite dropped -156.93 points, or 2.27%, to 6,753.73
  • The Russell 2000 Index declined -32.67 points, or 2.32% to 1,378.14

 

Events Calendar for Today

  • 7:45 AM EST       ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
  • 8:30 AM EST       Housing Starts MoM for November…est. 1.226M
  • 8:30 AM EST       Building Permits MoM for November…est. 1.26M
  • 8:55 AM EST       Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
  • 4:30 PM EST        API Weekly Inventory Data

 

Earnings Calendar:

  • Earnings Before the Open: DRI, FDS, LOVE, NAV, WOR
  • Earnings After the Close: ABM, AIR, FDX, JBL, MU, SCS

 

 

Macro

Up/Down

Last

WTI Crude

-1.32

48.56

Brent

-1.34

58.27

Gold

2.00

1,253.80

EUR/USD

0.0051

1.1399

JPY/USD

-0.56

112.27

10-Year Note

-0.038

2.819%

 

 

World News

  • U.S. Net Long-Term Portfolio Securities Inflow (TIC) $31.3B in October, U.S. total cross-border investment inflows at $42B in Oct.; China holds $1.14T of U.S. Treasuries, a decrease of $12.5B from last month, Japan holds $1.02T, a decrease of $9.5B from last month. Foreign net buying of Treasuries at $1.7B and foreign net selling of equities at $22.2B
  • China President Xi said no one can tell China what to do and the country will stick to its policy agenda, even as pressure mounts to allow more competition and reduce the state's role. Xi offered no new ideas to boost the economy or assuage U.S. concerns but reiterated the need for the Communist Party to control all aspects of the country's development.
  • German business sentiment deteriorated further to its lowest level in more than two years as trade tensions and the rising risk of a no-deal Brexit weigh on sentiment as the Ifo Institute’s gauge of corporate confidence fell to 101.0 in December from 102.0 in November (the fourth straight decline)

 

Sector News Breakdown

Energy, Industrials and Materials

  • The Boeing Company (BA) raised its quarterly dividend by 20% to $2.055 per share and also replaced the existing share repurchase program with a new $20 billion authorization, up from the $18 billion approved last December
  • Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSA) is in talks to buy Endeavor Energy Resources LP for around $8 billion, Bloomberg reports, citing unnamed sources. https://on.mktw.net/2UUoBbe
  • Heico (HEI) Q4 EPS 49c/$476.88M vs. est. 48c/$462.99M; sees FY net sales +8% to +10% and sees FY net income growth +10%
  • Navistar (NAV) Q4 EPS $1.89/$3.32B vs. est. $1.71/$3.22B; sees FY19 revenue $10.75B-$11.25B vs. est. $10.57B; sees FY19 adjusted EBITDA $850M-$900M
  • Japan plans to spend around $10 billion to become the largest customer outside the U.S. for Lockheed Martin Corp.’s (LMT) F-35 jet fighters. The cabinet of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe approved an increase of Japan’s existing order for 42 F-35s to 147 of the aircraft as part of new defense plans that include the development of Tokyo’s first post-World War II aircraft carrier
  • K+S AG (SDF.XE) raised its production outlook after saying that weather-related production stoppages at a German plant would be shorter than previously thought. Production at its Werra potash plant will now only be stopped from December 24 to 26
  • Anglo American PLC's (AAL.LN) said that its majority owned De Beers Group sold $540 million in rough diamonds in its tenth and final sales cycle of the year, which ended Dec. 17.

 

Healthcare

  • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) announces $5B share repurchase program; backs FY18 adj. EPS view $8.13-$8.18 on revs $81B-$81.4B vs. est. $8.16/$81.34B
  • AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) said that its drug Roxadustat has been approved in China as a treatment for patients who have chronic kidney disease and are on dialysis. The company said its partner FibroGen China, a subsidiary of FibroGen Inc. (FGEN), has received marketing authorization from the Chinese National Medical Products Administration for orally administered Roxadustat.
  • Puma Biotechnology (PBYI) announced top line results from the Phase III NALA trial of the company’s lead drug candidate neratinib in patients with HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer who have failed two or more prior lines of HER2-directed treatments
  • Achillion Pharmaceuticals (ACHN) said interim data from Phase 2 trials demonstrated preliminary proof-of-concept for its first generation, oral factor D inhibitor, ACH-4471
  • Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND) will pay $10M to Palvella Therapeutics and receive a tiered royalty on net sales in the mid-to-upper single digits, as well as regulatory and financing milestones
  • EyePoint Pharmaceuticals (EYPT) announced that it has been selected for addition to the NASDAQ Biotechnology Index. EyePoint's addition to the NBI will become effective prior to market open on Monday, December 24, 2018

 

Technology, Media & Telecom

  • Oracle (ORCL) Q2 adjusted EPS 80c/$9.57B vs. est. 78c/$9.52B; 2Q cloud revs $6.64B, 2Q service revs $817M, 2Q hardware revenue $891M and 2Q adjusted operating margin +43%
  • Red Hat (RHT) Q3 EPS 96c/$846.8M vs. est. 87c/$852.9M; 3Q subscription revs $740.7M and 3Q adjusted gross margin +86.6%; 3Q adjusted operating income $202.9M; Q3 operating cash flow $136.7M
  • Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM) said it believes Apple Inc. (AAPL) remains in violation of a Chinese court's orders to stop selling iPhones despite a software update that Apple pushed out on Monday, Reuters reported
  • CBS will not pay Les Moonves any of the $120m in severance that he was due after stepping down as chief executive following sexual misconduct allegations

 

 

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The content of this post was created by the Hammerstone Group. The Hammerstone Institutional Forum, a chat-based platform for traders, provides subscribers with up-to-the-minute breaking news headlines and instant analysis that drive the market. For more information please visit www.thehammerstone.com. For more information on the stocks mentioned in the Hammerstone Recap, please contact Brian Ducey at brian@thehammerstone.com.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from the Hammerstone Group and is being posted with the Hammerstone Group's permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or the Hammerstone Group and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


22044




Macro

Briefing.com - Spying A Rebound Try


Seeing is believing, yet we're not sure market participants are completely convinced that they can believe what they see this morning.  Hot on the heels of an ugly session on Monday, the futures for the major indices are all noticeably higher.

The S&P futures are up 14 points and are trading 1.0% above fair value.  The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 38 points and are trading 0.9% above fair value.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 136 points and are trading 0.9% above fair value.

There are some ostensible catalysts for the positive disposition, yet we think it starts with how the market finished Monday.  To that end, the S&P 500 closed on an uptick after testing an important support level at the February low (2532.69).

Accordingly, one can make a case this morning that the positive bias is more technical in nature than anything else, especially since it holds the distinction of being deeply oversold on a short-term basis.

This market should be ready to bounce on that basis.  Then again, that proclamation could have been reasonably made yesterday and Friday, and it mattered little in the end on each of those days.

It's possible today could be different, but it could very well take a test of the early rally effort to see if today's rebound try has some staying power or whether it will power down like every other rally effort has since the start of October with a prevailing inclination to sell into strength.

Watch the behavior of the financial, transportation, and retail stocks for some important cues.  They have been among the hardest-hit areas in December and are influential drivers of economic sentiment.  If this market is going to rally, and sustain a rally, these beaten-up stocks should be assuming a leadership position.

On the latter note, it's not enough for them simply to go down less than other stocks.  At this juncture, you want to see them actually go up and lead the market.

It could be a tall order knowing that global growth concerns have been validated in part by Japan cutting its GDP growth outlook for the current fiscal year and next, Switzerland cutting its GDP growth outlook for 2019, and Italy said to be contemplating a cut to its GDP growth forecast for 2019.

In turn, the Housing Starts and Building Permits Report for November wasn't as strong as the headline figures suggested, as it featured little to no growth in both permits and starts for single-family units.

Total starts increased 3.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.256 million units (Briefing.com consensus 1.230 million), yet starts for single-family units declined 4.6% to 824,000, which is the lowest since May 2017.  Total permits increased 5.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.328 million (Briefing.com consensus 1.270 million), yet permits for single-family units were up just 0.1% to 848,000.

The key takeaway from the report is that it substantiates the weakening levels of homebuilder confidence and is a reflection of the impact rising interest rates are having on single-family construction activity.

It is another data point that can give the Federal Reserve some reason to project a more conservative rate-hike outlook for 2019.  The market will know more on that front tomorrow when the FOMC publishes a new policy directive and updated projections at 2:00 p.m. ET.

Chatter has picked up of late that the Fed should forego a rate hike this week, yet the CME Fed Watch Tool shows a 71.5% probability of a rate hike at tomorrow's meeting, which suggests there is still a prevailing view that there will be a rate hike.

President Trump is urging the Fed not to raise rates again, making his wishes known in a tweet this morning, which also featured a suggestion to end the $50 billion of quantitative tightening each month.

That tweet should get plenty of air time since the FOMC meeting, and the debate surrounding it, is going to get plenty of air time between now and tomorrow.

Something else that will get some air time is the policy speech given by Chinese President Xi Jinping.  His basic message was for China to keep plowing ahead with its policy goals, offering a reminder to listeners that, "no one is in position to dictate to the Chinese people what should or should not be done."

It is hard to get a sense from that position that China is going to acquiesce to the structural changes the U.S. wants it to make by March 1.  We'll know soon enough.

In other developments, Boeing (BA) made a shareholder-friendly (and market-friendly) announcement, saying its Board authorized a 20% increase in the quarterly dividend and the replacement of a prior buyback plan with a new $20 billion authorization. 

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) for its part announced a new $5 billion share repurchase plan in a sign of confidence in its outlook as it contends with the fallout from allegations the company knew its baby powder contained asbestos.  The company has refuted those allegations.

--Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com

--

Briefing In Play offers live market-moving analysis, earnings and news coverage, broker ratings changes, as well as comprehensive economic coverage and commentary. Briefing in Play Plus includes everything in Briefing In Play, and features investment idea generation and in-depth analysis. Briefing Trader includes everything in Briefing In Play Plus, and features live trading ideas with specific entry/exit points as well as access to the new streaming audio feature, Trader Audio.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Briefing.com and is being posted with Briefing.com's permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Briefing.com and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


22045




Technical Analysis

FIBOCALL - The Morning FIBOCALL 12/18/18


Nine trading days left in 2018, and the Santa rally has not come yet.
Closed sharply lower on Friday and sharply lower yesterday
On 12/13 the SPX top ticked @ 2770.19 and we ticked yesterday @ 2530.54
That is more than a 5% pullback within 3 trading days.
The FOMC 2 day meeting ends tomorrow, watch IF today’s early bounce HOLDS,

with some more follow through tomorrow.
That 5% pullback can reverse if the street likes what the FOMC does and says.

The SPX-cash in the October selloff closed below the 10 MMA , but above the 20 MMA.
In November, it tested the 20 MMA and closed back above the 10 MMA.
Here we are with the December selloff, and again the SPX is below the 10 MMA @ 2736 and the 20 MMA @ 2654
with the December low @ 2530.54 so far.

A CLOSE at year end below 2603 and my first very LT support @ 2404.
A CLOSE at year end above the 20 MMA and I would look to be a buyer into 2019.

No long term signal here at this time

IWM
The 12/17 low @ 136.16
Our overshoot support level @ 135.21 below
Our first bounce level @ 140.48 and a CLOSE above to buy some.
LT oversold condition has been triggered.

 

QQQ
The 12/17 low @ 156.17
Our first bounce level @ 160.22 and a CLOSE above to buy some.
20 DMA @ 164.12 is above
No new long term signal here

 

CRUDE
It seems like everyone is poised for crude to go lower in the long term, and they have been right SO FAR.
I like crude as one of my best trades for 2019.

Crude has struggled to CLOSE above the falling 20 DMA @ 51.68 as it failed again last week.
A CLOSE ABOVE the 20 DMA is needed to ADD to longs.
Crude is still trading inside our  Very long term bounce zone @ 51.47-45.47
We LIKE being a long term holder with 45.47 HOLDING
Long term oversold signal is in place

 

XLF
The 12/17 low @ 23.89 which is inside
our very long term bounce zone @ 23.82-22.28 with the

200 WMA @ 22.96 below.
Our first bounce level @ 24.73 and a CLOSE above to buy some.
The free falling 20 DMA @ 25.82 is above

Long term oversold signal is here

 

10 year note yields
The August low @ 2.811 is still below
Are rates poised to go a little higher?
The 20 DMA @ 2.953, 200 DMA @ 2.958

with the 50 DMA @ 3.077 above.
Long term oversold is here

 

FIBOCRYPTOCALL

XBTUSD (Bitcoin)
With the global market selloff , Bitcoin did not get the buyers to come back in yet.
Bitcoin cleared our first short term bounce level @ 3435.

The 20 DMA @ 3749 and then our very short term selling zone @ 3769-3920
A close above 3920 would be short term BULLISH
Previous lows fir support?
6/2017 high @ 3000
9/2017 low @2975
50 MMA @ 2953
Long term oversold is in place

 

SPX-cash monthly chart

 

SPX-cash daily chart

--

TRADING IN BITCOIN FUTURES IS ESPECIALLY RISKY AND IS ONLY FOR CLIENTS WITH A HIGH RISK TOLERANCE AND THE FINANCIAL ABILITY TO SUSTAIN LOSSES. More information about the risk of trading Bitcoin products can be found on the IBKR website. If you’re new to bitcoin, or futures in general, download The Beginners Guide to Bitcoin Futures.

A member of the Market Technicians Association since 1987, Gary Berman provides institutional clients Technical Analysis Research. He is also an author for the REAL MONEY PRO section of TheStreet.com and TalkMarkets.

At THE FIBOCALL we focus on bringing you ACTIONABLE technical analysis research on a daily basis. Everyone should use THE FIBOCALL as a complementary tool to fundamental analysis – a cross check if you will. Our research can be applied on a macro or micro basis. THE FIBOCALL LLC provides custom technical analysis research on equities, ETFs, fixed income and commodities daily. In the electronic world it’s not enough to know the fundamental story on individual equities. You need to know when technicals confirm what the fundamentals say.

Please feel free to ask any questions you may have regarding THE FIBOCALL LLC. We offer a 2 week free trial offer so you can determine just how value added THE FIBOCALL can be to you.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from THE FIBOCALL and is being posted with THE FIBOCALL’s permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or THE FIBOCALL and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


22043




Technical Analysis

Bespoke Weather Services - The Gas Crash Continues


Monday, December 17, 2018 at 4:19PM

The natural gas crash continued today, with the January contract giving back almost 8% on the day after a solid gap down last evening.

natural gas commodity weather

The entire natural gas strip got sold hard today, but losses were by far the most significant for the next few winter months, as forecasts remained warm and the winter premium from storage concerns is rapidly getting priced out of the market.

natural gas commodity weather

This is of course best seen on the H/J March/April spread, which encapsulates the "stockout" fear (or fear that natural gas stocks get dangerously low before the end of high demand/storage withdrawal season in March).

natural gas commodity weather

The spread is not yet where it was before prices spiked in November, but it is moving much closer to those levels and is over $1 off the highs. This comes on continued confidence that warmth dominates through Week 2 and into the end of December, as seen in the latest Climate Prediction Center forecast here.

natural gas commodity weather

Our clients were warned of this, as we warned in our Friday Pre-Close Update that weather model guidance would maintain many of the warm risks that pressured prices on Friday and not provide any clear indication of cold returning.

natural gas commodity weather

Then this morning in our Morning Update we highlighted that "we do not see much reason for prices to move much below $3.75, and would look for $3.5 to be firm..." as weekend models fit our expectations well.

natural gas commodity weather

Sure enough, the January contract spiked up to $3.742 this morning before reversing and selling off through the day, setting a low at $3.516 and fitting our expectations almost exactly. We noted that though models were actually a touch cooler than we had forecast on Friday in our "Monday Expected" forecast, Week 3 forecasts in our Morning Update had trended even more bearish and we forecast that 12z model runs today would continue that trend.

natural gas commodity weather

natural gas commodity weather

Warmer PM model runs, and especially very warm European model guidance, seemed to help keep prices right near support and limit any rallies as we continued to see widespread warmth in the medium-range on American GEFS guidance as well (images courtesy of Tropical Tidbits).

natural gas commodity weather

Now, traders are looking to determine how weather forecasts are likely to change through the coming week, with the next weather trend likely determining whether prices close the week 20-30 cents higher or lower from their current prices. In our Note of the Day today we outlined when cold risks may be able to return and how that could impact natural gas prices moving forward. In our Afternoon Update we outlined how natural gas price risk appeared skewed short-term as well, and broke down PM weather model guidance. To give all our detailed weather and natural gas-driven research a look, try out a 10-day free trial here.

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Bespoke Weather Services is the premier integrated weather forecasting service for natural gas traders, offering actionable trade ideas and market risk profiles from live weather modeling and pricing data to identify opportunities along the natural gas strip.  We combine fundamental supply/demand and technical analysis with our weather forecasts to provide numerous research reports through the day alerting traders to what we see driving price action and how risk appears skewed moving forward.  We offer market sentiment and analysis on an intraday, daily, weekly, and seasonal basis, providing research packages for both active short-term traders and longer-term investors and portfolio managers.

Try a 10-day free trial to our unique integrated weather and natural gas-driven analysis here.

Disclaimer: Bespoke Weather Services, LLC believes all information contained in this note to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy.  None of the information in this post or any opinions expressed constitute a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities.

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Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Bespoke Weather Services and is being posted with Bespoke Weather Services's permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Bespoke Weather Services and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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