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期货

Bitcoin Futures Rally Amid Pickup In Volume


Kevin Davitt - Cboe Senior Instructor

Over the past week, XBTSM bitcoin futures vacillated on either side of the 10,000 mark, as volume returned to more normal levels. Futures trading was truncated during the Monday session in observance of Presidents Day.

Just a week prior, XBT futures trading activity dipped to an average daily volume (ADV) of 4,862. But this week, ADV (not including Friday trade) bounced back to a much more normal level of 8,256. The four-week average daily volume currently sits at 7,538.

Lead month (March) futures reopened Sunday night at 10,440. They traded as high as 11,800 on Feb. 20 and made weekly lows during the Feb. 22 session at 9,530. The high-to-low move for the week was a fairly typical 19.2% range. From the Feb. 6 contract lows to the past week’s highs, XBT March futures rallied 98.7%. In other words, it has effectively doubled in two weeks. Open interest for the March contract made new highs over the past week as well.

Bitcoin-related headlines this week remained focused on South Korea for seemingly backing off efforts to heavily regulate the crypto markets. There was also news out of Venezuela launching a “petro” cryptocurrency that’s pegged to the value of a barrel of Venezuelan oil. The country and its citizens are suffering from hyperinflation as the bolivar (Venezuelan fiat currency) has collapsed.

There was an interesting, albeit brief, article in Forbes this week regarding speculation that Starbucks (SBUX) and Dunkin Donuts (DNKN) may start accepting bitcoin as payment. The article notes the relatively young customer base at both franchises. The article goes on to point to the bitcoin futures market, which enables merchants to now accept bitcoin and sell futures to hedge off the underlying market volatility.

Futures markets are, by design, a place where producers and consumers can hedge price risk. In the XBT Weekly Bitcoin Roundup, Russell Rhoads of Cboe Global markets highlighted how to look at the cash bitcoin futures market in relation to the futures.

The term structure is almost identical week over week. Futures settled last week exhibiting a slight contango (green line) versus a very small backwardation Thursday, Feb. 22, but that’s in part due to futures settlement occurring 15 minutes after the daily Gemini auction. Lastly, as you can see on the chart, June futures were introduced during the past week.

If you’re new to bitcoin, or futures in general, download The Beginners Guide to Bitcoin Futures.

 

Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, a person must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Copies are available from your broker or from The Options Clearing Corporation at www.theocc.com. Futures trading is not suitable for all investors and involves risk of loss. The risk of loss in futures can be substantial. You should, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. For additional information regarding futures trading risks, see the Risk Disclosure Statement set forth in CFTC Regulation §1.55(b). No statement in this e-mail should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell a security or to provide investment advice. The views of third party speakers and their materials are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Cboe Options Exchange (Cboe). Third party speakers are not affiliated with Cboe.


© 2018 Cboe Exchange, Inc. All rights reserved.

This article is from CBOE and is being posted with CBOE’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or CBOE and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice. TRADING IN BITCOIN FUTURES IS ESPECIALLY RISKY AND IS ONLY FOR CLIENTS WITH A HIGH RISK TOLERANCE AND THE FINANCIAL ABILITY TO SUSTAIN LOSSES. More information about the risk of trading Bitcoin products can be found on the IB website.


16519




期权

Vol 411: Vix Futures


CBOETV - Dan Deming, KKM Financial, discusses Vix Futures Term Structure, Activity in June Puts, Fed Testimony.

Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, a person must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Copies are available from your broker, or at www.theocc.com. The information in this program is provided solely for general education and information purposes. No statement within the program should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell a security or to provide investment advice. The opinions expressed in this program are solely the opinions of the participants, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of CBOE or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates. You agree that under no circumstances will CBOE or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers, trading permit holders, employees, and agents, be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on information obtained from the program.

Copyright © 2018 Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated.   All rights reserved.

This video is from CBOE and is being posted with CBOE’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or CBOE and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 

 


16518




股票

Blockchain ETFs


Russell Rhoads, Director of Education, Cboe Options Institute, discusses arbitrage trading and blockchain ETF shareholders.

Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, a person must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Copies are available from your broker or from The Options Clearing Corporation at www.theocc.com. Futures trading is not suitable for all investors and involves risk of loss. The risk of loss in futures can be substantial. You should, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. For additional information regarding futures trading risks, see the Risk Disclosure Statement set forth in CFTC Regulation §1.55(b). No statement in this e-mail should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell a security or to provide investment advice. The views of third party speakers and their materials are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Cboe Options Exchange (Cboe). Third party speakers are not affiliated with Cboe.


© 2018 Cboe Exchange, Inc. All rights reserved.

This article is from CBOE and is being posted with CBOE’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or CBOE and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice. TRADING IN BITCOIN FUTURES IS ESPECIALLY RISKY AND IS ONLY FOR CLIENTS WITH A HIGH RISK TOLERANCE AND THE FINANCIAL ABILITY TO SUSTAIN LOSSES. More information about the risk of trading Bitcoin products can be found on the IB website.


16507




股票

Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk - Equity Market Insight February 23, 2018


As of 12:00PM ET

NASDAQ Composite +0.85% Dow +0.77% S&P 500 +0.76% Russell 2000 +0.30% S&P MID 400 +0.4%

NASDAQ Advancers: 1300 Decliners: 842

Today’s Nasdaq Volume (100 day avg.) -11%

Stocks in the US are on pace to post gains today, attempting to erase the weekly declines as traders are monitoring the Fed’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress. 10 out of 11 S&P sectors are higher, as the S&P Utility, S&P Info Tech, and S&P Financial are all seeing >90% of their constituents advancing today.

  • Majority of the Semi-Annual Monetary Report appears to be in-line with the public’s view of the economy. One key-take away was the committee’s clear focus on wage growth, and they might start referencing the Phillips Curve for upcoming decisions. The curve suggests that as the economy and wages grow, inflation should see a similar advance. Recent tax reform in the US will likely boost incomes for Americans, but the Fed is closely watching the wage growth to make sure it doesn’t trigger accelerated inflation.  
  • M&A got a boost this week as Nasdaq listed Blue Buffalo (BUFF) agreed to be acquired by General Mills (GIS) for $40 a share in cash valuing the deal at nearly $8 billion. BUFF went public in July, 2015 at a price of $20.00. YTD, global M&A has seen $770.5 billion of announced or proposed deals which is down over 25% from this time last year.
  • Earnings season for the quarter is nearing an end with 451 members of the S&P 500 having reported. So far we have seen an average upside beat of over 4.76% for the S&P 500 membership. The quarterly earnings growth rate for the index has popped nearly 15% while the sales growth rate has increased 7.7%. Consumer Discretionary and Materials have been the outperformers while the Energy sector has been the laggard.

Technical Take: Small-Caps jammed with broken heroes, but are they ready to run?

Roughly 23% of the Russell 2000 members will be reporting quarterly results, while earnings season for large-cap companies slows down. A robust earnings season might be exactly what the R2000 needs to make traction over the 50 day MA and reclaim its bullish condition.  The group has briefly touched the 50 day MA 3 out of the 5 past sessions, only to stall at the level and give up the initial upside. Since early 2016, the R2000 has seen 3 extended periods of trading below the 50 day (22 days, 21 days and 56 days). Once small caps were able to see momentum above the 50 day, the bulls piled on, pushing the index higher by an average of 10.2% over the next month. Currently, the small-cap index has spent 15 days below the 50 day MA.

 

Nasdaq's Market Intelligence Desk (MID) Team includes: 

Michael Sokoll, CFA is a Senior Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq with over 25 years of equity market experience. In this role, he manages a team of professionals responsible for providing NASDAQ-listed companies with real-time trading analysis and objective market information.

Jeffrey LaRocque is a Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq, covering U.S. equities with over 10 years of experience having learned market structure while working on institutional trading desks and as a stock surveillance analyst. Jeff's diverse professional knowledge includes IPOs, Technical Analysis and Options Trading.

Steven Brown is a Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq with over twenty years of experience in equities. With a focus on client retention he currently covers the Financial, Energy and Media sectors.

Christopher Dearborn is a Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq. Chris has over two decades of equity market experience including floor and screen based trading, corporate access, IPOs and asset allocation. Chris is responsible for providing timely, accurate and objective market and trading-related information to Nasdaq-listed companies.

Brian Joyce, CMT has 16 years of trading desk experience. Prior to joining Nasdaq Brian executed equity orders and provided trading ideas to institutional clients. He also contributed technical analysis to a fundamental research offering. Brian focuses on helping Nasdaq’s Financial, Healthcare and Airline companies among others understand the trading in their stock. Brian is a Chartered Market Technician.

This article is from Nasdaq and is being posted with Nasdaq’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Nasdaq and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


16516




固定收益

Underappreciated factors behind fast-rising bond yields


The early February spike in equity market volatility came on the heels of fast-rising bond yields. Jeff explains what’s behind the quickening pace.

 

The early February spike in equity market volatility came on the heels of fast-rising bond yields. What’s behind the quickening pace? Our 2018 fixed income outlook—Fuel for (over)heating—offers one possible explanation: U.S. fiscal stimulus, confidence-inducing investment and a steady global expansion are reawakening investor inflation fears.

Markets do appear to have suddenly woken up to the prospect of an inflation comeback in the U.S., a key theme of our 2018 Global investment outlook. But we see others interrelated factors also behind the re-calibration of rate expectations, as we write in our new Global bond strategy Recalibration and repatriation.

Increasing Treasury supply

Supply of Treasury bonds is headed up, and demand is declining. We estimate net supply could increase by some $488 billion, just as an erstwhile reliable buyer, the Federal Reserve, is trimming re-investments. This upsets the supply/demand balance of Treasury bonds and portends higher rates.

The weakening U.S. dollar

A less obvious culprit behind rising rates in January was the weakening U.S. dollar. Low rates in the rest of the world anchor U.S. yields. That has been the story to explain low U.S. rates and a flattening yield curve. But fading confidence in dollar stability now could turn this causality on its head: A weakening dollar may push up rate differentials as non-U.S. investors repatriate assets.

A flow of unhedged U.S. bond investments is headed back to the domestic markets of non-U.S. investors. This repatriation trend is showing itself in decreased foreign purchases of U.S. bonds and increased flows into non-U.S. bond funds, as the chart below shows.

Rising hedging costs have reduced the attractiveness of U.S. rates to foreign investors, and small dollar declines can wipe out any perceived benefit from higher U.S. yields for foreign investors. Other reasons for the flows may be prospects for higher returns at home as well as expectations for rising domestic interest rates. Lastly, rising oil prices may have sparked fears over a further dollar slide. This sort of repatriation is helping to dim the dollar’s prospects, lifting an anchor holding down yields on longer-dated U.S. rates.

The oil factor

Any further rise in oil prices could weigh on the dollar, making crude a contributor to the pullback from U.S. debt by unhedged foreign investors. How likely is this to happen? Supply discipline by traditional oil producers and strong global demand underpin high crude prices. Yet nimble U.S. shale production tends to kick in whenever prices are high, capping the upside. This potentially reduces the role of oil in any further dollar downdraft.

Bottom line

We see steadily steeper curves and higher rates improving the outlook for short versus long maturities. We particularly like two- to five-year bonds for their yield-duration ratios. Floating rate and inflation-linked instruments are attractive for their potential buffer against rising rates and inflation. We prefer an up-in-quality stance in credit, favoring investment grade over high yield. Read more market insights in our Global bond strategy.

Jeffrey Rosenberg, Managing Director, is BlackRock’s Chief Investment Strategist for Fixed Income, and a regular contributor to The Blog.

 

Investing involves risks, including possible loss of principal.

Fixed income risks include interest-rate and credit risk. Typically, when interest rates rise, there is a corresponding decline in bond values. Credit risk refers to the possibility that the bond issuer will not be able to make principal and interest payments.

This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of February 2018 and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this post are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by BlackRock, its officers, employees or agents. This post may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this post is at the sole discretion of the reader.

©2018 BlackRock, Inc. All rights reserved. BLACKROCK is a registered trademark of BlackRock, Inc., or its subsidiaries in the United States or elsewhere. All other marks are the property of their respective owners.

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This article is from BlackRock and is being posted with BlackRock’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or BlackRock and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


16510




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披露

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