{"id":248397,"date":"2026-06-26T14:20:50","date_gmt":"2026-06-26T18:20:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?post_type=webinars&#038;p=248397"},"modified":"2026-07-01T13:58:42","modified_gmt":"2026-07-01T17:58:42","slug":"from-binary-outcomes-to-ranges-converting-opinions-to-expectations","status":"publish","type":"webinars","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/webinars\/from-binary-outcomes-to-ranges-converting-opinions-to-expectations\/","title":{"rendered":"From Binary Outcomes to Ranges: Converting Opinions to Expectations"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Markets don\u2019t just reflect opinions &#8211; they price expectations. In this session, we introduce how investors can move from simple \u201cyes or no\u201d views to more nuanced expectations using prediction market frameworks. We explore how to convert opinions of outcomes into prediction market prices, identify potential edge, and better understand what markets are telling us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Participants will learn the fundamentals of Yes\/No contracts and Plus (spread) contracts, learning how each captures different levels of conviction \u2013from all-or-nothing outcomes to directionally correct views across a range. We\u2019ll also connect these concepts to the broader S&amp;P 500\u00ae Index ecosystem and discuss how liquidity and market structure support these products.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Markets don\u2019t just reflect opinions &#8211; they price expectations. In this session, we introduce how investors can move from simple \u201cyes or no\u201d views to more nuanced expectations using prediction market frameworks. 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