{"id":97342,"date":"2021-08-02T12:35:00","date_gmt":"2021-08-02T16:35:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=97342"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:32:45","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:32:45","slug":"new-week-new-month-same-old-story","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/new-week-new-month-same-old-story\/","title":{"rendered":"New Week, New Month, Same Old Story"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>It\u2019s a summer Monday and the start of a new month.&nbsp; Stocks followed a typical script, rising early because, well\u2026, um\u2026, just because.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To be fair, it is not unusual to see futures trade higher on the first trading day of a new month.&nbsp; There is a persistent belief that new money flows into the markets on that day from 401K\u2019s and the like, so of course traders bid up index futures to try to get ahead of those flows.&nbsp; Bear that in mind when you wake up and see futures higher on the first of the month on no specific news.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Of course, that theory covers the first day of the month, not the other 20 trading days a month when we are seemingly as likely to see futures trading higher on no particular news.&nbsp; I know it is simplistic to say that markets seemingly go up because they go up, but here is a chart that goes a long way to explaining the key relationship behind the steadily rising stock market:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-year-to-date-federal-reserve-balance-sheet-white-vs-s-p-500-spx-blue\">Year-to-Date Federal Reserve Balance Sheet (white) vs. S&amp;P 500 (SPX, blue)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"462\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/08\/SPX-vs-Fed-graph-1100x462.png\" alt=\"Year-to-Date Federal Reserve Balance Sheet (white) vs. S&amp;P 500 (SPX, blue)\" class=\"wp-image-97350 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/08\/SPX-vs-Fed-graph-1100x462.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/08\/SPX-vs-Fed-graph-700x294.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/08\/SPX-vs-Fed-graph-300x126.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/08\/SPX-vs-Fed-graph-768x323.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/08\/SPX-vs-Fed-graph-1536x646.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/08\/SPX-vs-Fed-graph.png 1915w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/462;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019m not usually a fan of simply putting a chart with two lines that seem to move together unless there is a valid reason to suspect causality.&nbsp; In this case, I think the causality is incredibly clear.&nbsp; The Federal Reserve has been steadily increasing their balance sheet, which is a reflection of the monetary stimulus that they have been providing since March, 2020.&nbsp; Since the last market hiccup last September, the balance sheet and SPX have been in lockstep.&nbsp; Consider these statistics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">SPX vs Fed Balance Sheet Linear Regression Since October, 2020 (top) with Statistics (below)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"436\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/08\/SPX-vs-Fed-regression-1100x436.png\" alt=\"SPX vs Fed Balance Sheet Linear Regression Since October, 2020\" class=\"wp-image-97352 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/08\/SPX-vs-Fed-regression-1100x436.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/08\/SPX-vs-Fed-regression-700x277.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/08\/SPX-vs-Fed-regression-300x119.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/08\/SPX-vs-Fed-regression-768x304.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/08\/SPX-vs-Fed-regression-1536x608.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/08\/SPX-vs-Fed-regression.png 1540w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/436;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full img-half\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"376\" height=\"442\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/08\/SPX-vs-Fed-stats.png\" alt=\"SPX vs Fed Balance Sheet Linear Regression Since October, 2020 with Statistics\" class=\"wp-image-97353 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/08\/SPX-vs-Fed-stats.png 376w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/08\/SPX-vs-Fed-stats-300x353.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 376px) 100vw, 376px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 376px; aspect-ratio: 376\/442;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is a stunning regression and correlation.&nbsp; We might have guessed from the first graph that they would show a nearly perfect linear relationship and high correlation, but an R-squared of 0.919 is quite high.&nbsp; The only quibble is that there are only 43 weekly observations in that set, but I contend that there is a clear cause-effect behind the statistics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Can there be reasons for this relationship to break?&nbsp; Of course.&nbsp; Equity markets discount future events, at least in theory, so economic releases that offer reasons for the Fed to reduce the pace of its stimulus could cause stocks to react before the Fed actually moves.&nbsp; Also, we quietly reached the federal debt ceiling.&nbsp; While few expect that the US will actually default in the coming weeks, a delay in approving a debt ceiling expansion could lead to impediments to the Fed\u2019s normal purchases of government securities.&nbsp; Also, the end of eviction and student loan moratoria could cause outflows from stocks as investors who had delayed paying some of their obligations now use equity holdings to pay down debt.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For now though, it\u2019s the same old same old.&nbsp; And that tends to be a plus for most investors.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It\u2019s a summer Monday and the start of a new month. For now, it\u2019s the same old same old.  And that tends to be a plus for most investors.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":97347,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15,17,14700,18,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[78,446,910],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-97342","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-fixed-income","8":"category-futures","9":"category-ibkr-market-insights","10":"category-macro","11":"category-north-america","12":"category-region","13":"category-securities","14":"category-stocks","15":"category-text-articles","16":"category-traders-insight","17":"tag-balance-sheet","18":"tag-federal-reserve","19":"tag-sp-500","20":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>New Week, New Month, Same Old Story | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"It\u2019s a summer Monday and the start of a new month. 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