{"id":92535,"date":"2021-06-21T12:32:00","date_gmt":"2021-06-21T16:32:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=92535"},"modified":"2023-03-14T09:58:50","modified_gmt":"2023-03-14T13:58:50","slug":"worried-about-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/worried-about-inflation\/","title":{"rendered":"Worried About Inflation?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>It\u2019s been a wild few days for stock traders.\u00a0 Last Wednesday, ahead of the FOMC meeting, we warned that volatility often increased in the 3 day period after a Fed announcement.\u00a0 Last week proved no exception with a 1.89% fall, as evidenced below:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-three-day-chart-s-p-500-index-spx-white-june-16th-18th-2021-intraday-ticks\">Three Day Chart, S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX, white), June 16<sup>th<\/sup>-18<sup>th<\/sup>, 2021, Intraday Ticks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"477\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/06\/SPX-3-day-1100x477.png\" alt=\"Three Day Chart, S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX, white), June 16th-18th, 2021, Intraday Ticks\" class=\"wp-image-92548 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/06\/SPX-3-day-1100x477.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/06\/SPX-3-day-700x304.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/06\/SPX-3-day-300x130.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/06\/SPX-3-day-768x333.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/06\/SPX-3-day-1536x666.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/06\/SPX-3-day.png 1918w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/477;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I believe that much of the move was exacerbated by Friday\u2019s quarterly expiration of futures, index options and stock options.&nbsp; Today, despite significant falls in the Asia\/Pacific region overnight, stock traders are in a much more forgiving mood.&nbsp; Friday\u2019s drop has been essentially erased this morning:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-four-day-chart-s-p-500-index-spx-white-june-16th-21st-2021-intraday-ticks\">Four Day Chart, S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX, white), June 16<sup>th<\/sup> \u2013 21<sup>st<\/sup>, 2021, Intraday Ticks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"480\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/06\/SPX-4-day-1100x480.png\" alt=\"Four Day Chart, S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX, white), June 16th \u2013 21st, 2021, Intraday Ticks\" class=\"wp-image-92549 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/06\/SPX-4-day-1100x480.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/06\/SPX-4-day-700x305.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/06\/SPX-4-day-300x131.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/06\/SPX-4-day-768x335.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/06\/SPX-4-day-1536x670.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/06\/SPX-4-day.png 1900w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/480;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Many technical analysts believe that gaps need to be closed.&nbsp; If that is the case, consider it mission accomplished for Friday\u2019s opening gap.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is customary for traders to think that volatility ebbs when markets move up sharply.&nbsp; That is a gross misconception.&nbsp; Right now we are looking at 2 consecutive days with over 1% daily moves.&nbsp; Just because today\u2019s move was higher does not mean that the volatility doesn\u2019t count (my friend Steve Sears refers to days like today as \u201csocially acceptable volatility\u201d).&nbsp; Volatility measures down AND up moves, though traders are understandably less eager to hedge when stocks move higher.&nbsp; Indeed, we see a substantial drop in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), but remember that VIX attempts to measure the market\u2019s best guess for a constant 30-day expected volatility.&nbsp; The current reading of 18.35 is still consistent with roughly 1% daily moves, though. [1]&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Inflation fears and potential Fed tightening are widely believed to be behind the market\u2019s action since last Wednesday.&nbsp; One would think that all the talk of reflation or tapering would lead to sky-high implied volatilities in common inflation hedges.&nbsp; So far that is nowhere near the case.&nbsp; Consider the following two graphs:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-one-year-daily-chart-of-ishares-20-year-treasury-bond-etf-tlt-yellow-with-20-day-historical-and-current-implied-volatilities-orange-blue\">One Year Daily Chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT, yellow), with 20 Day Historical and Current Implied Volatilities (orange, blue)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"483\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/06\/TLT-implied-vols-1100x483.png\" alt=\"One Year Daily Chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT, yellow), with 20 Day Historical and Current Implied Volatilities (orange, blue)\" class=\"wp-image-92550 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/06\/TLT-implied-vols-1100x483.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/06\/TLT-implied-vols-700x307.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/06\/TLT-implied-vols-300x132.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/06\/TLT-implied-vols-768x337.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/06\/TLT-implied-vols-1536x674.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/06\/TLT-implied-vols.png 1888w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/483;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-one-year-daily-chart-of-spdr-gold-shares-gld-yellow-with-20-day-historical-and-current-implied-volatilities-orange-blue\">One Year Daily Chart of SPDR Gold Shares (GLD, yellow), with 20 Day Historical and Current Implied Volatilities (orange, blu<em>e)<\/em><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"474\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/06\/GLD-implied-vols-1100x474.png\" alt=\"One Year Daily Chart of SPDR Gold Shares (GLD, yellow), with 20 Day Historical and Current Implied Volatilities (orange, blue)\" class=\"wp-image-92551 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/06\/GLD-implied-vols-1100x474.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/06\/GLD-implied-vols-700x301.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/06\/GLD-implied-vols-300x129.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/06\/GLD-implied-vols-768x331.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/06\/GLD-implied-vols-1536x661.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/06\/GLD-implied-vols.png 1918w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/474;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bonds and gold are both considered to be highly sensitive to inflationary fears.&nbsp; In the case of long duration Treasuries, the sensitivity is direct.&nbsp; Government bond prices reflect inflationary expectations over the life of the bond and are also influenced by the Federal Reserve\u2019s open market bond purchasing.&nbsp; Gold prices are not directly influenced by inflation, but as a \u201creal\u201d asset, it should benefit if inflation rises.&nbsp;&nbsp; It would be reasonable to expect either bond or gold markets to see higher implied volatilities if traders are fearful about the inflation picture or changes in Fed policy.&nbsp; We see that implied volatilities for both have risen from recent lows, but are nowhere close to levels that we have seen at various points throughout the past year.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That points to an interesting conundrum.&nbsp; Implied volatilities were generally higher when Fed policy was more certain.&nbsp; Until recently there was no reason to expect an imminent change from the FOMC.&nbsp; Now, we have Fed governors who are actively discussing tapering bond purchases and inflation measures that are nearing or exceeding Fed targets.&nbsp; Yet bond and gold options are not pricing in levels of movement (or fear) that we saw when the Federal Reserve was undisputedly a tailwind to markets. In that light, is it all that surprising that equity markets are relatively sanguine as well?&nbsp;&nbsp; VIX and other volatility measures are also generally lower than they were for most of the past year.&nbsp; For now stock traders are unwilling to be more fearful than their bond and gold brethren.&nbsp; They imply a relatively calm summer on the horizon.&nbsp; Let\u2019s see if that forecast is correct.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>[1]See here: <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/understand-the-rule-of-16\/\">\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/understand-the-rule-of-16\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>and here: <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/vix-is-not-now-nor-has-it-ever-been-the-fear-index\/\">\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/vix-is-not-now-nor-has-it-ever-been-the-fear-index\/<\/a> for more explanation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Inflation fears and potential Fed tightening are widely believed to be behind the market\u2019s action since last Wednesday. One would think that all the talk of reflation or tapering would lead to sky-high implied volatilities in common inflation hedges &#8211; but not yet.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":25244,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,14700,18,6,19,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[255,860],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-92535","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-commodities","8":"category-ibkr-market-insights","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-options","12":"category-region","13":"category-securities","14":"category-stocks","15":"category-text-articles","16":"category-traders-insight","17":"tag-gold","18":"tag-volatility","19":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Worried About Inflation? 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