{"id":89129,"date":"2021-05-24T12:28:00","date_gmt":"2021-05-24T16:28:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=89129"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:32:58","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:32:58","slug":"does-this-look-like-a-currency-to-you","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/does-this-look-like-a-currency-to-you\/","title":{"rendered":"Does This Look Like a Currency to You?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Most traders I know embrace volatility.&nbsp; Investors are more mixed \u2013 it depends on their asset class and mandate.&nbsp; Corporate treasurers often go to great lengths to avoid volatility, with many spending significant time and money trying to minimize its impact via hedging activities.&nbsp; If your business is selling services or widgets, you generally want some degree of certainty about how sales translate into profits &#8212; especially if you receive revenues in a range of various currencies.&nbsp; Cryptocurrency advocates often state the case for its ultimate adoption as a means of exchange.&nbsp; A quick look at bitcoin\u2019s eye-popping volatility vis-\u00e0-vis established currencies makes that look highly unlikely in the near future. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Much was made of Tesla\u2019s recent announcement that it would no longer accept bitcoin as a means to purchase its autos.&nbsp; While this appears to be a repudiation of bitcoin as a medium of exchange, it was <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/crypto\/teslas-move-on-bitcoin-and-a-potential-aml-motivation\/\">my contention at the time (and ever since) that the move was made primarily in response to nascent regulatory concerns<\/a>.&nbsp; The subsequent news that the Treasury intends to require reporting of all crypto transactions larger than $10,000 (as it does for cash transactions) seems to provide evidence of my theory.&nbsp; Yet despite the appearance that one of crypto\u2019s biggest boosters turned about face on utilizing it as a means of exchange, I believe that there is a more basic reason for the lack of acceptance of bitcoin and others for normal transactions.&nbsp; The table below should make that evident:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-historical-volatilities-of-various-currencies-vs-us-dollar-annualized\">Historical Volatilities of Various \u201cCurrencies\u201d vs. US Dollar, Annualized %<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"554\" height=\"510\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/05\/image-113.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-89130 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/05\/image-113.png 554w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/05\/image-113-300x276.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 554px) 100vw, 554px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 554px; aspect-ratio: 554\/510;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The chart includes the G7 currencies at the top, along with other notable selections.&nbsp; I included the Australian dollar because of its perceived dependence upon commodity prices and the Chinese renminbi because of that country\u2019s role in global commerce.&nbsp; Gold and silver were included because they were historically utilized as currencies.&nbsp; It doesn\u2019t take much to see the clear outlier, does it?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/understand-the-rule-of-16\/\">It is important to keep the \u201cRule of 16\u201d in mind here<\/a>.&nbsp; Dividing by 16 allows us to quickly convert the commonly displayed annualized measures of implied volatility into daily moves.&nbsp; The 6% annualized volatility that we see as a rough average for G7 currencies translates to an average daily move of about 0.375%.&nbsp; Even the relatively high readings for the Australian dollar translate to about a 0.625% move.&nbsp; Volatility increases dramatically when we move away from fiat currencies into so-called hard currencies like gold and silver, where we see volatility measures in the 0.5%-1% and 1.5%-2% ranges respectively.&nbsp; Other than a few hardcore believers, there are not many folks advocating for the use of gold and silver as a means of exchange, and their volatility relative to fiat currencies is one probable reason.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>How then do we put bitcoin into context?&nbsp; The current 7 day volatility of bitcoin does encompass some of the most epic moves that we have seen in any financial product in recent memory, so extrapolating the 11.25% equivalent daily volatility into the future does seem unfair.&nbsp; But with the readings for 60 and 200 day volatility both implying roughly 4.75% daily moves, this makes the <strong>daily<\/strong> volatility of bitcoin greater than the annualized volatility of the renminbi and nearly that of the yen!&nbsp; We assert that daily volatility of bitcoin is uncomfortably high for any company that desires consistency in their revenues and bottom line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When we consider the lengths to which CFO\u2019s go to hedge exposures to currencies with only modest volatility, why would they want to introduce the risk of exposing themselves to a \u201ccurrency\u201d that would subject them to eye-popping fluctuations?&nbsp; I can\u2019t imagine any company other than the most ardent supporter of crypto currencies taking a flyer on that sort of volatility.&nbsp; The paradox for crypto advocates is that the widespread adoption would require a sustained period of low volatility, yet that period of low volatility would likely make trading bitcoin and its peers far less exciting.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Most traders I know embrace volatility.  Investors are more mixed \u2013 it depends on their asset class and mandate.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[16,14700,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[410],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-89129","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-forex","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-bitcoin","14":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Does This Look Like a Currency to You? | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Most traders I know embrace volatility. 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