{"id":87832,"date":"2021-05-14T12:28:00","date_gmt":"2021-05-14T16:28:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=87832"},"modified":"2023-03-14T09:24:45","modified_gmt":"2023-03-14T13:24:45","slug":"what-a-short-strange-trip-its-been","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/what-a-short-strange-trip-its-been\/","title":{"rendered":"What a Short Strange Trip It\u2019s Been"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Some weeks go slowly, others speed along.  This week was the latter.  There was something noteworthy in almost every sector of the markets and we had the ups and downs to prove it.  Space and deadlines don\u2019t permit a full recap of all the week\u2019s activities, but we can rely on charts to do much of the talking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Wednesday, we featured a chart of the normalized month-to-date performance of 4 major US equity indices.\u00a0 They were all underwater at the time, yet even after some solid gains, most have still not recovered any potential \u201csell in May\u201d levels:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Normalized Month-to-Date Performance for Various Major Indices: S&P 500 (white), NASDAQ 100 (blue), Dow Jones (purple), Russell 2000 (red)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"Normalized<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even after a day and a half of solid rallies, we see that all the indices above are still down for the week, and only the Dow Jones is up marginally for the month to date.\u00a0 Those who bought the dip on Wednesday have been rewarded so far, though.\u00a0 In that same Wednesday article, we outlined a potential reason for some added pressure on the market this week \u2013 taxes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBecause May 17th is this coming Monday, today [Wednesday] is the final day for investors who sell shares for regular delivery (T+2) to receive the proceeds in their accounts prior to tax day.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It was clear that the surprisingly high CPI reading that was released on Wednesday morning was the main culprit for the sharp selloff that we saw that day, I strongly believe that tax selling added to the day\u2019s woes.  I believe that taxes also explain much of the ferocity of the snapback rally that began yesterday and continues through today.  Yesterday\u2019s PPI release continued the theme of higher than expected inflation, but stocks were able to propel themselves forward without the somewhat forced selling by investors who needed to liquidate stock holdings to raise money for tax payments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The progression of the VIX futures curve over the course of the week shows the remarkable round-trip in sentiment:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

VIX Futures Curves Each Day This Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"VIX<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The VIX curve for today (green) is almost identical to the one from Monday (white).  Yet the progression is quite spectacular.  Look at the graph from Monday (white) to Tuesday (red) to Wednesday (blue).  That is a staggeringly quick move in just 2 days!  Then, we gave it all back between Thurday (orange) and today (green).  Volatility traders found themselves with excellent opportunities and hedgers were reminded of the value that could arise from their protection.  But those traders and hedgers needed to be quite nimble, because of the quick reversion of the volatility markets to their previous state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, any discussion of the week that was would be incomplete without mentioning bitcoin.  Cryptocurrency holders were shocked on Wednesday evening (US time) when Tesla (TSLA) announced that it would no longer be accepting bitcoin as a method of payment for its vehicles.  Bitcoin dropped sharply in the aftermath and has recovered some of its worst losses, but it still remains well below levels from prior to TSLA\u2019s announcement:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bitcoin 3 Day Chart<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"Bitcoin<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The stated reason for the company\u2019s change was concern over the environmental cost of bitcoin.  I remain surprised that market commentators take Elon Musk at face value.  Yesterday, I wrote<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI find it unimaginable that he [Elon Musk] suddenly discovered that bitcoin mining was a huge energy hog.  \u2026[The acceptance of bitcoin for purchases] could be creating an inadvertent anti-money-laundering (AML) problem for TSLA.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I reiterate that I do not accuse TSLA or Musk of facilitating money laundering.  Instead, I assert that accepting bitcoin as payment for autos could accidentally facilitate the reintroduction of illicit funds into the financial system.  There appears to be a greater regulatory impetus around cryptocurrencies \u2013 as evidenced by yesterday afternoon\u2019s news report that the cryptocurrency exchange Binance was under investigation by the Justice Department and IRS.  Elon Musk and Tesla remain huge holders of cryptocurrencies.  Offering an environmental rationale for a change in a corporate crypto policy is far more benign than a regulatory rationale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dear readers, enjoy the weekend.  Next week is a monthly options expiration.  After a wild week in equity, volatility and crypto markets, there is ample potential for another wacky one.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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