{"id":85659,"date":"2021-04-28T12:36:00","date_gmt":"2021-04-28T16:36:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=85659"},"modified":"2023-02-28T14:32:08","modified_gmt":"2023-02-28T19:32:08","slug":"the-fed-apple-sotu-and-volatility","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/the-fed-apple-sotu-and-volatility\/","title":{"rendered":"The Fed, Apple, SOTU and Volatility"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the next few hours we get the confluence of three major events, any of which has the potential to move markets significantly.&nbsp; Monetary Policy, Earnings, and Fiscal Policy have all contributed to lift markets since the depths of the Covid crisis.&nbsp; Today and tonight we get major insight into all those elements.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For starters, at 2PM (all times Eastern Daylight) we get the latest interest rate decision and policy statement from the Federal Open Market Committee.&nbsp; While few expect any meaningful changes to interest rate policy or guidance, investors will be scrutinizing Chair Powell\u2019s ensuing press conference for clues to the timing and magnitude of any potential changes to monetary policy.&nbsp; Despite repeated assurances from the Chairman that the Fed remains committed to a \u201clower for longer\u201d policy, reporters will undoubtedly probe the nuances about transitory inflation and full employment.&nbsp;&nbsp; The last Fed meeting concluded on March 17<sup>th<\/sup>.&nbsp; The S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX) rose .29% that day but fell 1.48% the next.&nbsp; The prior meeting concluded on January 27<sup>th<\/sup>.&nbsp; SPX fell 2.57% that day.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The chart below shows the movements in SPX on the meeting day and the following day for the past year.\u00a0 We can see that there are several days with above average volatility, including some substantial declines that occurred in the midst of a steadily rising market.\u00a0 FOMC meetings can bring volatility, sometimes on the day of the meeting, sometimes after investors had an evening to think about them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td>Date<\/td><td>SPX<\/td><td>% change<\/td><td>2 day % change<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>4\/29\/2020<\/td><td>2939.51<\/td><td>2.66 FOMC<\/td><td>&nbsp;<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>4\/30\/2020<\/td><td>2912.43<\/td><td>-0.92<\/td><td>1.74<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>6\/10\/2020<\/td><td>3190.14<\/td><td>-0.53 FOMC<\/td><td>&nbsp;<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>6\/11\/2020<\/td><td>3002.1<\/td><td>-5.89<\/td><td>-6.42<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>7\/29\/2020<\/td><td>3258.44<\/td><td>1.24 FOMC<\/td><td>&nbsp;<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>7\/30\/2020<\/td><td>3246.22<\/td><td>-0.38<\/td><td>0.86<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>9\/16\/2020<\/td><td>3385.49<\/td><td>-0.46 FOMC<\/td><td>&nbsp;<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>9\/17\/2020<\/td><td>3357.01<\/td><td>-0.84<\/td><td>-1.3<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>11\/5\/2020<\/td><td>3510.45<\/td><td>1.95 FOMC<\/td><td>&nbsp;<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>11\/6\/2020<\/td><td>3509.44<\/td><td>-0.03<\/td><td>1.92<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>12\/16\/2020<\/td><td>3701.17<\/td><td>0.18 FOMC<\/td><td>&nbsp;<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>12\/17\/2020<\/td><td>3722.48<\/td><td>0.58<\/td><td>0.76<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>1\/27\/2021<\/td><td>3750.77<\/td><td>-2.57 FOMC<\/td><td>&nbsp;<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>1\/28\/2021<\/td><td>3787.38<\/td><td>0.98<\/td><td>-1.59<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3\/17\/2021<\/td><td>3974.12<\/td><td>0.29 FOMC<\/td><td>&nbsp;<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3\/18\/2021<\/td><td>3915.46<\/td><td>-1.48<\/td><td>-1.19<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After the close today, we then get results from the largest component in SPX and NDX.&nbsp; Apple (AAPL) makes up about 6% of SPX and about 11% of NDX.&nbsp; Unlike yesterday, when results from Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) caused the stocks to move in opposite directions, essentially neutering their effects on the indices, AAPL stands alone.&nbsp; A significant move in either direction will have an influence on the indices tomorrow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Finally, President Biden offers his first State of the Union address this evening at 9PM.&nbsp; Pundits expect him to offer clarity on both his desired infrastructure plans along with the tax increases that he might propose to pay for them.&nbsp; Markets had a hiccup recently when reports came out about corporate tax increases, though they recovered quickly afterwards.&nbsp; It is still unclear what the market has already discounted regarding potential programs that could benefit the economy and taxes that could impede its progress.&nbsp; Investors seek clarity, but it remains to be seen whether we get clarity, confusion or surprises.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Markets are definitely pricing in some incremental volatility for the rest of the week.&nbsp; At-money options on SPY that expire this Friday, April 30<sup>th<\/sup> have an implied volatility of about 14%.&nbsp; That translates into daily moves of about 7\/8 % for the rest of the week.&nbsp; Looking at the chart above, that seems low compared with previous FOMC weeks.&nbsp; And remember, most of those FOMC meetings did not coincide with earnings season and a State of the Union speech.&nbsp;&nbsp; I\u2019ll leave it for readers to draw their own conclusions about whether risk aversion is properly priced into the markets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the next few hours we get the confluence of Monetary Policy, Earnings and Fiscal Policy, all of which have contributed to lift markets since the depths of the Covid crisis.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":27573,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[15,14700,18,6,19,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[155,267,314,566,567,158,207,262],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-85659","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-fixed-income","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-macro","category-north-america","category-options","category-region","category-securities","category-stocks","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-aapl","tag-earnings","tag-fomc","tag-goog","tag-googl","tag-msft","tag-spx","tag-spy","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the 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He has held numerous roles in the organization since joining Timber Hill, IBKR\u2019s predecessor, in 1995 as Equity Risk Manager and an options market maker. He developed and implemented automated trading strategies for stocks and options before moving into his current role. Steve has guest authored several columns in Barron\u2019s and made numerous live on Bloomberg TV and Radio, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, and several other media outlets in North America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East in addition to being quoted frequently in print and electronic media. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/12\/yield-corporate-bonds2.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85659","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=85659"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85659\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/27573"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=85659"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=85659"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=85659"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=85659"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}