{"id":85234,"date":"2021-04-26T12:43:00","date_gmt":"2021-04-26T16:43:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=85234"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:33:07","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:33:07","slug":"what-is-the-options-market-saying-about-tesla-earnings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/what-is-the-options-market-saying-about-tesla-earnings\/","title":{"rendered":"What is the Options Market Saying About Tesla Earnings?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>It\u2019s quarterly earnings season once again.&nbsp; Traders and investors alike have been keenly focused on companies\u2019 first quarter results.&nbsp; It is fair to say that markets have been generally pleased with what they have seen thus far, as evidenced by the following chart:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-s-p-500-index-spx-2-week-chart\">S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX), 2 Week Chart<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"826\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/04\/SPX-2-Week-Chart-1100x826.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX), 2 Week Chart\" class=\"wp-image-85235 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/04\/SPX-2-Week-Chart-1100x826.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/04\/SPX-2-Week-Chart-700x526.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/04\/SPX-2-Week-Chart-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/04\/SPX-2-Week-Chart-768x577.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/04\/SPX-2-Week-Chart-1536x1153.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/04\/SPX-2-Week-Chart.png 1758w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/826;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The chart begins on April 13<sup>th<\/sup>, the day before earnings season kicked off in earnest with reports from JP Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Goldman Sachs (GS).&nbsp; Despite some volatility, SPX has trended higher as results from a wide range of major companies reported generally positive results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/crypto\/i-really-didnt-want-to-write-about-bitcoin-again\/\">as I wrote last week<\/a>, \u201cThe results have been great, the guidance and reactions less so.&nbsp; But what we saw this week is largely an opening act.&nbsp; We have yet to hear from the top 8 companies in the NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX), which represent about 50% of the index\u2019s weight.&nbsp; Six of them top the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX), where we are still waiting for most of the companies that make up the top 25% of index weight.&nbsp;The main event begins next week.\u201d&nbsp; In short, this is really the make-or-break week for earnings season.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The first of the mega-cap tech stocks reports after the today\u2019s close.&nbsp; Tesla (TSLA) is clearly a polarizing company.&nbsp; Regardless of whether you believe that the company is a beacon for the future or an overhyped bubble, you need to pay attention to its results.&nbsp; TSLA is the 6<sup>th<\/sup> highest weighted company in SPX and the 5<sup>th<\/sup> highest in the NASDAQ 100 Index (QQQ)<sup>[i]<\/sup>. Like it or not, it has become too big to ignore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Bloomberg data, the street estimate for TSLA EPS is $0.804.&nbsp; At today\u2019s price, it implies that the P\/E of TSLA will decline from nearly 1,000 to somewhere under 500<sup>[ii]<\/sup>. Both of those numbers are stratospheric and imply immense expectations for future growth.&nbsp; With any normal company, that would present an incredibly high bar and any slip-up could create a wave of disappointment.&nbsp; But TSLA is by no means treated as a normal company by its most faithful holders.&nbsp; For that reason, it is crucial to look for clues to market sentiment wherever we can find them.&nbsp; Fortunately, the options market gives us plenty of clues. We can start by using the Probability Lab feature on the Trader Workstation<sup>[iii]<\/sup>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-tsla-probability-distribution-using-april-30th-options-on-april-26th\">TSLA Probability Distribution Using April 30<sup>th<\/sup> Options on April 26th<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"679\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/04\/TSLA-Probablity-Lab-1100x679.png\" alt=\"TSLA Probability Distribution Using April 30th Options on April 26th\" class=\"wp-image-85236 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/04\/TSLA-Probablity-Lab-1100x679.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/04\/TSLA-Probablity-Lab-700x432.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/04\/TSLA-Probablity-Lab-300x185.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/04\/TSLA-Probablity-Lab-768x474.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/04\/TSLA-Probablity-Lab-1536x948.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/04\/TSLA-Probablity-Lab.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/679;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We can see from the results above, using options expiring at the end of this week (April 30<sup>th<\/sup>),&nbsp; options traders are currently putting the highest likelihood for a move in 710-720 area, or about 2-3% lower from the current price.&nbsp; That is a fairly modest decline, and we can see that the probability distribution is essentially symmetrical otherwise.&nbsp; That suggests a dispersion of potential outcomes among options traders and hedgers.&nbsp; That is perhaps unsurprising considering the polarity of opinions about TSLA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking at the options using the Time Lapse Skew function<sup>[i]<\/sup>,we can see that traders have gotten more sanguine about TSLA\u2019s post-earnings prospects since Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-tsla-skew-april-30th-expiry-values-for-april-26th-dark-yellow-and-april-23rd-light-yellow\">TSLA Skew, April 30<sup>th<\/sup> Expiry, Values for April 26<sup>th<\/sup> (dark yellow) and April 23<sup>rd<\/sup> (light yellow)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"671\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/04\/TSLA-Time-Lapse-Skew-1100x671.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-85237 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/04\/TSLA-Time-Lapse-Skew-1100x671.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/04\/TSLA-Time-Lapse-Skew-700x427.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/04\/TSLA-Time-Lapse-Skew-300x183.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/04\/TSLA-Time-Lapse-Skew-768x469.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/04\/TSLA-Time-Lapse-Skew-1536x937.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/04\/TSLA-Time-Lapse-Skew-2048x1250.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/671;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We can see that implied volatility rose significantly across the board since Friday.&nbsp; That is to be expected, as traders are loath to buy short-term options at high implied volatilities any earlier than they need to because they decay so quickly. (<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/understanding-theta-a-key-to-options-profit-and-loss\/\">Here is more about theta<\/a>) The at-money options are trading with an implied volatility of about 87.5%, which imply that TSLA will average about 5.5% daily volatility between now and Friday (<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/understand-the-rule-of-16\/\">thanks to the Rule of 16<\/a>).&nbsp; Obviously, one would expect that the weekly volatility assessments are highly dependent on the move that could result after TSLA\u2019s earnings announcement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>My takeaway is that TSLA options traders seem to be relatively sanguine ahead of this afternoon\u2019s earnings release.&nbsp; According to Bloomberg data, the absolute value of post-earnings price changes in TSLA is 8.43%.&nbsp; That is well above the 5.5% noted above.&nbsp; Furthermore, we have seen several double-digit percentage moves \u2013 up and down \u2013 after TSLA earnings, though none since January 2020.&nbsp; Have traders settled into a period of post-earnings calm for what was once a highly volatile stock after earnings?&nbsp; That appears to be the case, at least for today.&nbsp; Relative calm is anticipated by the options market.&nbsp; Many would say that this is the mark of a maturing blue-chip company.&nbsp; Contrarians would say that a significant deviation from anticipated earnings or guidance could really catch the market by surprise.&nbsp; We\u2019ll know soon enough who is correct.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[i] Two things to keep in mind: 1. Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) has two classes of shares in the indices.&nbsp; While TSLA has a bigger weight (~4.3%) in NDX than either class of Alphabet, on a combined basis the company has a higher weight (3.8% + 3.47% = 7.27%).&nbsp; 2. The rankings are different because SPX and NDX have different weighting criteria.&nbsp; SPX uses free-floating shares, while NDX has rules to cap the influence of its largest components<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[ii] The trailing 4 quarter EPS is .275 +. 339 +. 104 + .022 = 0.74.&nbsp; If we replace the 0.022 from 4 quarters ago with .804, it more than doubles the trailing EPS to 1.522<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[iii] On your TWS \u2013 Analytical Tools -&gt; Options Analysis -&gt; Probability Lab<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Traders and investors alike have been keenly focused on companies\u2019 first quarter results, but TSLA is by no means treated as a normal company by its most faithful holders.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":68510,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,6,19,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[267,161],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-85234","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-options","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-stocks","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-earnings","16":"tag-tesla","17":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What is the Options Market Saying About Tesla Earnings?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Traders and investors alike have been keenly focused on companies\u2019 first quarter results. 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