{"id":76445,"date":"2021-02-17T12:35:00","date_gmt":"2021-02-17T17:35:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=76445"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:33:21","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:33:21","slug":"what-are-vix-futures-telling-us-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/futures\/what-are-vix-futures-telling-us-now\/","title":{"rendered":"What Are VIX Futures Telling Us Now?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong><a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/markets-love-round-numbers\/\">Yesterday, we wrote<\/a> <\/strong>how investors\u2019 fixation with round numbers included the CBOE Volatility Index\u2019 (VIX) recent, brief flirtation with the 20 level.&nbsp; Granted, it only managed to crack that number for the final 3 minutes of the trading day last Friday, but its timing seemed auspicious \u2013 at least when the US left for a 3-day weekend.&nbsp; By yesterday, we saw the index bounce back to around 21.5 on a day when major indices mostly meandered, seemingly rendering moot the low volatility theme for the time being.&nbsp; Yet while most of the media attention focused on the level of the spot VIX index, out of the limelight, futures were telling us a very different story about the potential return of volatility in upcoming months.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Consider the graph below:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-vix-futures-curves-current-green-1-month-ago-orange-5-months-ago-blue\"><em>VIX Futures Curves: Current (green), 1 Month Ago (orange), 5 Months Ago (blue)<\/em><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1077\" height=\"598\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/02\/sosnick_2-17-21.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-76465 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/02\/sosnick_2-17-21.png 1077w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/02\/sosnick_2-17-21-700x389.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/02\/sosnick_2-17-21-300x167.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/02\/sosnick_2-17-21-768x426.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1077px) 100vw, 1077px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1077px; aspect-ratio: 1077\/598;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We see that the futures curve has steepened dramatically, resembling the shape that it maintained in the weeks leading up to the 2020 election.&nbsp; At the time we noted, along with others, that the election and its aftermath had the potential to be a volatility inducing event.&nbsp; That proved to be the case.&nbsp; The post-election rally eventually pushed 7 day historical volatility for the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) over 35 before subsiding over the ensuing weeks.&nbsp; We can argue that VIX futures traders more or less got it right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So we have to ask ourselves what those traders see over the coming months that leads them to anticipate a similarly large bump in volatility over the coming months.&nbsp; When we compare the orange line to the green line in the graph above, we see that that the curve\u2019s steepness rose sharply since last month.&nbsp; Something about the market\u2019s expectations for future volatility has changed over the past few weeks.&nbsp; There is no obvious catalyst like an election to boost expectations, though.&nbsp; We can see that the market is concerned about <em>something<\/em>, though it is hard to see what that might be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The stimulus bill is the most significant piece of potentially market-moving news that is likely to emerge in the coming weeks.&nbsp; Markets are fixated on stimulus, and rightly so.&nbsp; We have discussed how fiscal stimulus was a key catalyst behind last year\u2019s market rebound and many economic commentators have linked today\u2019s surprising 5.3% jump in January retail sales to the recent $600 checks.&nbsp; At one point, investors viewed the upcoming proposal to be a slam-dunk, with bi-partisan support for most of its tenets.&nbsp; As with much in DC, bi-partisanship proved to be fleeting, with Republican Senators lining up in opposition to the bill and some Democratic Senators showing dismay with some of its specifics.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I can see three potential problems surrounding the bill\u2019s passage that could be causing unease.&nbsp; First, the bill could take longer to become law than originally anticipated.&nbsp; Markets appear to have priced in the imminent, speedy passage of the bill, but in light of the objections that we noted, that might be a more time-consuming process than we thought.&nbsp; Second, the bill may be less encompassing than anticipated.&nbsp; Investors appear to have been pricing in a minimum of $1400 checks and a wide range of other economic support.&nbsp; Again, if the negotiations continue to find new sticking points, those may turn out to be resolved via compromises that would dilute the bill\u2019s effectiveness.&nbsp; Third, investors could be looking at the stimulus bill as a \u201cbuy the rumor, sell the news\u201d event.&nbsp; This is what I believe to be the most likely concern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders have long memories.&nbsp; Sometimes not long enough, but most remember three years ago.&nbsp; At that time, major indices had been rising in anticipation of the Trump tax cuts.&nbsp; Those were signed at the end of 2017, and markets continued to rise throughout January 2018.&nbsp; VIX was flirting with single digits, and it appeared that the run would continue indefinitely.&nbsp; That narrative was upturned in early February 2018.&nbsp; Major indices plunged by 10% or more, and the ensuing rise in volatility came to be known as \u201cVolmageddon\u201d.&nbsp; In hindsight, the tax cuts proved to be a major \u201cbuy the rumor, sell the news\u201d event.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Of course no two markets are the same.&nbsp; The levels of implied volatility across a wide range of options were historically low, almost freakishly so.&nbsp; We see a very different setup now, with rampant call speculation pushing implied volatilities \u2013 particularly on out of the money calls \u2013 to levels above historic norms.&nbsp; But it is important to remember that while history doesn\u2019t repeat, it often rhymes.&nbsp; There may be other explanations for the steep VIX curve that will emerge over the coming days, or the curve may settle back to a more normal shape, but \u201cbuy the rumor, sell the news\u201d seems to be the narrative that fits best right now.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While most of the recent media attention focused on the level of the spot VIX index, out of the limelight, futures were telling us a very different story about the potential return of volatility in upcoming months.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[17,14700,6,19,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[317,860],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-76445","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-futures","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-options","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-stocks","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-vix","16":"tag-volatility","17":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - 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