{"id":73840,"date":"2021-01-27T12:09:00","date_gmt":"2021-01-27T17:09:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=73840"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:33:27","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:33:27","slug":"canary-in-a-coalmine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/canary-in-a-coalmine\/","title":{"rendered":"Canary in a Coalmine?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I am hoarse from discussing the role that options trading has been playing as a contributing factor to the recent advance in equity markets overall and specifically in stocks like Gamestop (GME) that have gone seemingly mad.&nbsp; This isn\u2019t a complaint \u2013 I find the attention both flattering and a key part of my job description \u2013 but it has me concerned.&nbsp; When any investment trend gets inordinate notice in the mainstream media as well as the financial press, it usually means that the trend is closer to ending than beginning.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I offer the following graph as an illustration to what happens when a mania shows signs of abating.&nbsp; I deliberately removed the name of the underlying product and any related price and time clues to enable readers to consider it without prejudice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-six-month-graph-of-product-x-with-10-30-and-50-day-moving-averages\"><em>Six month graph of \u201cProduct X\u201d with 10, 30 and 50 day moving averages<\/em><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"402\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/01\/Screenshot-2021-01-27-105254-1100x402.png\" alt=\"Six month graph of \u201cProduct X\u201d with 10, 30 and 50 day moving averages\" class=\"wp-image-73870 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/01\/Screenshot-2021-01-27-105254-1100x402.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/01\/Screenshot-2021-01-27-105254-700x256.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/01\/Screenshot-2021-01-27-105254-300x110.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/01\/Screenshot-2021-01-27-105254-768x281.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/01\/Screenshot-2021-01-27-105254-1536x562.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/01\/Screenshot-2021-01-27-105254.png 1777w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/402;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We see that this product had a spectacular rise (roughly fourfold) in a short period of time (about 3 months), far outstripping the moving averages that tended to define its trend.&nbsp; A month after its peak, we see the product giving back over a quarter of its gains, causing its 10 day moving average to cross below its 30 day counterpart, and flirting with a second test of the 50 day moving average that it had far outstripped.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I wish I could tell you the eventual outcome for this product, but I can\u2019t.&nbsp; As some of you undoubtedly guessed, this is a 6 month chart of Bitcoin from about 11:00 AM Eastern time today.&nbsp; When the cryptocurrency had a dizzying rise from around $10,000 to over $40,000 around the close of 2020, media coverage of its gains became an ever-increasing fixture in the financial and mainstream press.&nbsp; Ask yourself how much you have seen or heard about Bitcoin in the past couple of weeks relative to what you experienced during its rise.&nbsp; Unless you\u2019re a dedicated crypto investor, the answer should be \u201cnot as much.\u201d&nbsp; The focus has moved to options activity, stocks having seemingly incomprehensible moves that originated as short squeezes, or a combination of the two.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I am concerned that just as Bitcoin presaged the rise in the current single-stock mania, it could also be signaling what happens when that mania subsides.&nbsp; I don\u2019t profess to know whether Bitcoin breaks its well defined support in the $29,000-$30,000 range, but it is in a fairly precarious technical situation.&nbsp; I have to wonder if people have been moving out of Bitcoin to speculate in high-flying stocks.&nbsp; If so, could cryptocurrencies be a leading indicator for trouble once the current wave of stock speculation runs its course?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There is ample precedent for this.&nbsp; The prior bitcoin bubble occurred in late 2017, culminating in December of that year.&nbsp; By the end of January it had given back about half its gains.&nbsp; At that time, options were also in the news \u2013 though at that time it was because the crowded trades involved shorting volatility as the broad indices rose inexorably.&nbsp; That ended abruptly in February 2018, in what became known as \u201cvolmageddon\u201d.&nbsp; Indices suffered a fast correction and VIX exploded.&nbsp; Bitcoin was a canary in a coalmine then.&nbsp; Is it one now?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>When any investment trend gets inordinate notice in the mainstream media as well as the financial press, it usually means that the trend is closer to ending than beginning. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":73886,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,18,6,19,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[410,3351,860],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-73840","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-macro","category-north-america","category-options","category-region","category-securities","category-stocks","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-bitcoin","tag-gamestop","tag-volatility","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - 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