{"id":68951,"date":"2020-12-10T13:24:00","date_gmt":"2020-12-10T18:24:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=68951"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:33:31","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:33:31","slug":"the-winners-curse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/the-winners-curse\/","title":{"rendered":"The Winner\u2019s Curse"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sometimes, a lesson goes unlearned.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When our boys were growing up we used to vacation in Maine every summer.&nbsp; &nbsp;We occasionally spent an evening at Scarborough Downs, a nearby harness racing track.&nbsp; Neither my wife nor I are gamblers or horse aficionados, but it was a fun and inexpensive diversion when there was a little too much \u201ctogether time\u201d.&nbsp; Our older son was a quick study, and realized that the point of the activity was not to watch the outcome of the races, but to bet on them.&nbsp; After what seemed like incessant haranguing, we broke down and told him that we would let him pick a race.&nbsp; We said nothing when he picked a long shot exacta, figuring that it would teach him a valuable lesson about how difficult it was to win at gambling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sure enough, the exacta came in.&nbsp; It paid about $60 for a $2 bet.&nbsp; Gamblers would normally be ecstatic at such a payoff, but my wife and I were chagrined.&nbsp; The lesson had completely backfired!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I believe that the same sort of reinforcement is at work in the markets right now.&nbsp; Many novice and newish investors came into the markets this year, emboldened by $1200 stimulus checks and moratoria on their student loan repayments.&nbsp; Who could blame them?&nbsp; The full weight of the US Congress and the Federal Reserves was behind an effort to wrest the economy and the markets out of a virus-induced tailspin.&nbsp; Coincidentally, the advent of zero commissions and fractional shares made it cheaper and easier than ever for individuals to participate in the markets.&nbsp; A basic economic rule is \u201cif you want more of something, make it cheaper.\u201d&nbsp; The deck had never been so stacked in favor of investors, and many were smart enough to recognize it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Winning emboldens gamblers and investors alike.&nbsp; As they realized that some of the most speculative stocks were among the biggest winners, they joined the fray.&nbsp; Those bets, er investments, paid off too.&nbsp; Many of them came to learn that if stocks could pay off big, options could pay off even bigger.&nbsp; Many of the new investors were actually frustrated sports gamblers who came to the markets when there were no games on which to bet.&nbsp; They realized that options can have a similar payoff structure to a sports bet.&nbsp; Much like a money-line sports or racing bet, where a gambler lays out an amount of cash hoping for a wind that will return his initial bet and then some, an options buyer lays out an initial premium and a successful purchase can pay off several times.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Options professionals concern themselves with the level of volatility and other factors (\u201cthe Greeks\u201d) that influences the prices of derivatives.&nbsp; Options speculators concern themselves primarily with only one of the variables \u2013 delta, the change in the value of an option that comes from a change in the underlying stock.&nbsp; Quite frankly, that is another bet that has generally been paying off well in a rising market.&nbsp; If stocks go up wildly, so too do their call options.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is no coincidence then, that we are seeing record demand for call options.&nbsp; Volumes and open interest are at all-time highs, with much of that volume concentrated in calls expiring within a week or less.&nbsp; (Weekly options were another innovation that broadened investors\u2019 access to tradeable products.)&nbsp; The timing and payoff structure are indeed similar to gambling, except that there is nearly continuous action, a wider array of potential wagers, and transaction costs that are a small fraction of those charged by bookmakers.&nbsp; Can you blame commentators for comparing the current nature of the markets to an overheated casino?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The most significant difference between markets and a casino is that the gamblers can actually influence the outcome.&nbsp; Odds will change if a sufficient imbalance of wagers pile up on one side or another, but that should have no bearing upon the outcome of a fair contest.&nbsp; In the markets, however, an imbalance of money flowing into or out of an investment will indeed move the price of that product.&nbsp; That gives a self-fulfilling character to the relentless advance of the stock market and those who buy call options leveraged to it.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As of now there has been virtually no consequences to those who have helped propel the markets.&nbsp; And that is where the problem lies.&nbsp; I don\u2019t know when markets will pull back \u2013 today, tomorrow, next month or sometime in the distant future \u2013 but they always do.&nbsp; Just as ever-increasing participation in the bull market has propelled its advance, a reversal of fortune could accelerate its decline.&nbsp; Investors usually do not appreciate market risks until they have been through a full bull-bear market cycle.&nbsp; The newest crop of investors has been taught that the riskier the bet, the bigger the payoff, and that any downside is short and shallow.&nbsp; That may have been true since March, but it was not accurate in the past \u2013 or even earlier this year!&nbsp; We need to hope that these new investors will not panic if markets turn against them.&nbsp; That may be the case in theory, but those who employ leverage do not necessarily have that luxury when facing a margin call.&nbsp; This is why I stress the importance of risk management even in a rising market.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As for my son\u2019s gambling debut, I have no choice but to think that it influenced his behavior since.&nbsp; He is the only member of our family who has an interest in gambling, and has learned an expensive lesson to avoid pachinko parlors now that he lives in Japan.&nbsp; He never turned into a problem gambler though, nor do I think that many investors will do so.&nbsp; But most successful investors and gambler alike learn to balance risk and reward.&nbsp; I certainly hope that most newly minted investors learn that lesson, and not the hard way after seeing their early long shot bets pay off handsomely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Related reading:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/greed-can-be-good-as-long-as-you-manage-your-risk\/\">Greed Can Be Good as Long as You Manage Your Risk (tradersinsight.news)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/did-anyone-make-dow-30000-hats\/\">Did Anyone Make Dow 30,000 Hats? &#8211; Traders&#8217; Insight<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Winning emboldens gamblers and investors alike.  Can you blame commentators for comparing the current nature of the markets to an overheated casino?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":27572,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,6,19,8,9,26,3],"tags":[3562,2243,3358,4135],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-68951","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-north-america","category-options","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-bear-market","tag-bull-market","tag-call-options","tag-risk-management","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Winner\u2019s Curse | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Winning emboldens gamblers and investors alike. 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