{"id":64556,"date":"2020-10-29T12:04:23","date_gmt":"2020-10-29T16:04:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=64556"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:33:35","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:33:35","slug":"what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-tonights-megacap-earnings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-tonights-megacap-earnings\/","title":{"rendered":"What to Expect When You\u2019re Expecting Tonight\u2019s Megacap Earnings"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>This afternoon promises to be an exciting one.&nbsp; Over 1\/3 of the NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX) is expected to report earnings nearly simultaneously after today\u2019s close.&nbsp; The combination of Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG\/GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) not only represent a significant minority of NDX, the also comprise over 15% of the index weight of the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX).&nbsp; Because of their market heft, tonight\u2019s earnings are not simply events that concern holders of those specific companies.&nbsp; By necessity they concern markets as a whole.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The market environment makes these earnings releases particularly concerning.&nbsp; Even before the broad selloffs that we saw on Monday and yesterday, large tech stocks have tended to fare poorly \u2013 even after releasing earnings that beat expectations.&nbsp; Yes, there have been exceptions like Snap (SNAP) and Pinterest (PINS) which rallied sharply after positive surprises, but more typically we have seen reactions like that of Shopify (SHOP).&nbsp; That stock, which is the largest component of Canada\u2019s TSX 60 Index, beat its earnings expectations substantially this morning but is trading lower nonetheless.&nbsp; Tesla (TSLA) traded only marginally higher after beating it\u2019s number, while Netflix (NFLX) and Intel (INTC) were harshly punished.&nbsp; Microsoft (MSFT) fell sharply yesterday as well after a positive surprise, but that may have been more about the broad selloff than anything company specific.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This morning we are seeing the \u201cbuy the dip\u201d crowd active in this afternoon\u2019s focus names.&nbsp; That strategy has generally worked for aggressive traders in large tech companies, so it is not unreasonable to expect traders to try it once more.&nbsp; <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/one-faang-is-out-more-to-come\/\">As we did in prior articles<\/a>, we will look beyond the current stock price moves to see what options markets are predicting for these companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All these stocks have weekly options that expire after the close tomorrow.&nbsp; As a result, we have a very pure way of seeing what the market anticipates for tomorrow\u2019s post-earnings move.&nbsp; We will use the TWS\u2019 Time Lapse Skew and Probability Lab functions to see the market\u2019s predictions.&nbsp; In all cases we see that implied volatilities have risen across the board over the past few days.&nbsp; That is not at all surprising, since implied volatilities tend to rise as companies approach their earnings dates.&nbsp; The magnitude is enhanced by the nervous market selloffs that have raised volatility measures like VIX and VXN this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"390\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/image-92.png\" alt=\"AAPL\" class=\"wp-image-64584 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/image-92.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/image-92-300x188.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/390;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"778\" height=\"185\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/image-100.png\" alt=\"AAPL\" class=\"wp-image-64594 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/image-100.png 778w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/image-100-700x166.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/image-100-300x71.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/image-100-768x183.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 778px) 100vw, 778px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 778px; aspect-ratio: 778\/185;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>For AAPL, we see a flattish skew with a slight depression in the 118 area.&nbsp; That leads to a fairly symmetrical probability distribution centered around today\u2019s trading price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"390\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/image-94.png\" alt=\"AMZN\" class=\"wp-image-64587 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/image-94.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/image-94-300x188.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/390;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"148\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/image-95.png\" alt=\"AMZN\" class=\"wp-image-64588 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/image-95.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/image-95-300x71.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/148;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>For AMZN, both the skew and the cumulative probability show the highest likelihood outcome is a dip to about 3100, erasing today\u2019s gain but not much more.&nbsp; This is a change, because AMZN had been showing a fairly sanguine view, as evidenced by the upward slope in the lowest line on the chart above<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"390\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/image-96.png\" alt=\"GOOG\" class=\"wp-image-64589 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/image-96.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/image-96-300x188.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/390;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"148\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/image-97.png\" alt=\"GOOG\" class=\"wp-image-64590 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/image-97.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/image-97-300x71.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/148;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The probability graph for GOOG is rather unusual.&nbsp; Markets are implying a that the stock could rise or fall about 2% as more likely than if it stayed unchanged.&nbsp; In fact, there is about a $100 range of outcomes around the current price that appear to be likely.&nbsp; This could be because Alphabet is notoriously close-mouthed about earnings guidance, meaning that there is even less consensus as usual around their quarterly results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"390\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/image-98.png\" alt=\"FB\" class=\"wp-image-64591 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/image-98.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/image-98-300x188.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/390;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"148\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/image-99.png\" alt=\"FB\" class=\"wp-image-64592 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/image-99.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/image-99-300x71.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/148;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally, FB options appear to imply that the most likely outcome is for the stock to give back today\u2019s 5% bounce.&nbsp; Though the skew is roughly flattish, it is clearly sloped toward downside options.&nbsp; It makes me wonder what today\u2019s buyers see in the stock that the options market doesn\u2019t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Chart Sources: Trader Workstation<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This afternoon promises to be an exciting one.  Over 1\/3 of the NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX) is expected to report earnings nearly simultaneously after today\u2019s close.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":47191,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,6,19,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[267,1081],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-64556","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-options","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-stocks","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-earnings","16":"tag-nasdaq-100","17":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What to Expect When You\u2019re Expecting Tonight\u2019s Megacap Earnings<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This afternoon promises to be an exciting one. 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Over 1\/3 of the NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX) is expected to report earnings nearly simultaneously after today\u2019s close.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-tonights-megacap-earnings\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-10-29T16:04:23+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-02-10T18:33:35+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/06\/candles-trading-e1678382468475.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"900\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"506\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Steve Sosnick\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta 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