{"id":64256,"date":"2020-10-27T10:50:25","date_gmt":"2020-10-27T14:50:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=64256"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:33:36","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:33:36","slug":"a-final-check-on-mister-softee-msft-ahead-of-earnings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/a-final-check-on-mister-softee-msft-ahead-of-earnings\/","title":{"rendered":"A Final Check on Mister Softee (MSFT) Ahead of Earnings"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Old nicknames die hard.&nbsp;When I started in the business, voice trading was the norm.&nbsp; The stereotype of hoarse men (yes, almost exclusively men) shouting at each other was the only way that trades were executed.Though it proved an inefficient way to do business, it was colorful and fun \u2013 at least most of the time.&nbsp; One shorthand that traders used was to give nicknames to commonly traded stocks.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p> \u201cI-Beam\u201d for IBM was one example.&nbsp; Another was \u201cMister Softee\u201d for Microsoft (MSFT).&nbsp; Those of you who live outside the New York area might not get the reference, though.&nbsp; Mister Softee is a popular brand of soft-serve ice cream trucks whose jingle burrows into one\u2019s brain like a determined earworm.&nbsp; I apologize for a bit of nostalgia before launching into a very modern analysis of the options market\u2019s expectations for this afternoon\u2019s MSFT earnings release.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Heading into earnings, we don\u2019t see the type of euphoria that the options market anticipated for stocks like Netflix (NFLX) and Tesla (TSLA).&nbsp; Options skews, as displayed in the TWS graph below (MSFT -&gt; Time Lapse Skew with October 30<sup>th<\/sup> options displayed) are relatively normal.&nbsp; The only oddity appears to be the depression around the 200 level.&nbsp; The market appears to be relatively sanguine about the prospects for a 5% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"390\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/image-86.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-64257 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/image-86.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/image-86-300x188.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/390;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Trader Workstation<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Probability Lab shows something similar.&nbsp; The options market is implying its highest probability on outcomes in the 205-212 region, which is a slight decline from current levels.&nbsp; That is in line with much of what we have seen throughout earnings season thus far.&nbsp; Companies have generally been matching or beating their estimates, though most have declined slightly anyway.&nbsp; For years we have seen companies getting only moderately rewarded for beating their numbers and punished for missing.&nbsp; That phenomenon is in place this quarter, if not amplified<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"247\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/image-87.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-64258 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/image-87.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/10\/image-87-300x119.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/247;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Trader Workstation<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Bloomberg Data, MSFT typically moves about 3.5% after its earnings release.&nbsp; The skew graph above shows an implied volatility of about 57, which converts to about 3.5% (<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/understand-the-rule-of-16\/\"><strong>using the rule of 16<\/strong><\/a>).&nbsp; That seems about right, no?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite the importance of MSFT to the tech sector and the markets as a whole, there is not much to be gleaned from the options market\u2019s assessment of its earnings prospects.&nbsp; Quite frankly, it appears that a consensus view is priced in.&nbsp; We shall soon see what Mister Softee delivers this afternoon.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Despite the importance of MSFT to the tech sector and the markets as a whole, there is not much to be gleaned from the options market\u2019s assessment of its earnings prospects.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,6,19,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[267,1244,2220],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-64256","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-ibkr-market-insights","7":"category-north-america","8":"category-options","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-stocks","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-earnings","15":"tag-microsoft","16":"tag-skew","17":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - 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He has held numerous roles in the organization since joining Timber Hill, IBKR\u2019s predecessor, in 1995 as Equity Risk Manager and an options market maker. He developed and implemented automated trading strategies for stocks and options before moving into his current role. Steve has guest authored several columns in Barron\u2019s and made numerous live on Bloomberg TV and Radio, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, and several other media outlets in North America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East in addition to being quoted frequently in print and electronic media. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64256","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=64256"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64256\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=64256"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=64256"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=64256"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=64256"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}