{"id":59769,"date":"2020-09-16T10:16:23","date_gmt":"2020-09-16T14:16:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=59769"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:33:42","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:33:42","slug":"can-you-spot-a-pattern-in-the-markets-reaction-to-fed-meetings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/can-you-spot-a-pattern-in-the-markets-reaction-to-fed-meetings\/","title":{"rendered":"Can You Spot a Pattern in the Market\u2019s Reaction to Fed Meetings?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Short Answer: Sort of.&nbsp; But not really.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Longer Answer: I made intraday graphs of the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) and S&amp;P 500 (SPX) indices for the 3 day period surrounding each of this year\u2019s prior Federal Reserve meetings, hoping to find a tradeable pattern.&nbsp; (I only examined scheduled meetings, not the emergency meeting that occurred during the depths of the Covid crisis)&nbsp; Did indices rise or fall during or after the Chairman\u2019s press conference?&nbsp; Did overnight futures signal a subsequent move one way or another?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In each of the graphs below, the yellow line is NDX and the green is SPX.&nbsp; The only pattern that seems apparent is that SPX closed lower after each of the last 3 meetings.&nbsp; That is not the case for NDX, reflecting the stellar outperformance of that index over its broader peers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Also, I have long used the adage \u201cThe first move is the wrong move\u201d when it came to the market\u2019s reaction to the initial announcement.&nbsp; That is true to some extent, since there is always some sort of trading reversal after the press release, but finding that turning point is more art than science.&nbsp; It does not appear to occur at any specific time frame after 2:00 Eastern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And finally, there are too few data points from which to draw any sort of significant conclusion.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I would love to offer some sort of foolproof trading advice around a Fed meeting, but I simply can\u2019t.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"405\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/09\/image-48.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-59770 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/09\/image-48.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/09\/image-48-300x195.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/405;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"405\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/09\/image-49.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-59771 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/09\/image-49.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/09\/image-49-300x195.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/405;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"408\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/09\/image-50.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-59772 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/09\/image-50.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/09\/image-50-300x196.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/408;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"398\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/09\/image-51.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-59773 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/09\/image-51.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/09\/image-51-300x191.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/398;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"404\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/09\/image-52.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-59774 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/09\/image-52.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/09\/image-52-300x194.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/404;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source for all graphs: Bloomberg<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Is there a pattern to the market&#8217;s reactions to Fed meetings? The short answer is sort of, but not really.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[77,1081,910],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-59769","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-ibkr-market-insights","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-fed","14":"tag-nasdaq-100","15":"tag-sp-500","16":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Can You Spot a Pattern in the Market\u2019s Reaction to Fed Meetings?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Is there a pattern to the market&#039;s reactions to Fed meetings? 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