{"id":39814,"date":"2020-03-27T12:26:29","date_gmt":"2020-03-27T16:26:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=39814"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:34:17","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:34:17","slug":"the-vix-is-too-darn-high-no-its-not","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/the-vix-is-too-darn-high-no-its-not\/","title":{"rendered":"The VIX is Too Darn High! No, It&#8217;s Not"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Various people, in the media and elsewhere, have asked me\nwhy the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remained so stubbornly high despite the\nmarket\u2019s sharp rebound this week.&nbsp; The\nshort answer is: math.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The confusion arises primarily from those who view the VIX\nas the market\u2019s fear gauge, rather than its actual purpose as an indicator of\nthe market\u2019s best estimate of volatility in the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX) over\nthe next 30 days.&nbsp; If you\u2019ve suffered\nfrom that confusion you\u2019re not alone, as that is a very common perception.&nbsp; But let\u2019s clear that up that confusion once\nand for all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I explained the topic in depth in last weekend\u2019s Barron\u2019s, which we linked <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/making-sense-of-the-three-types-of-volatility\/\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the article, I explain that volatility is usually\nexpressed in annualized terms, which is of little value to those who utilize\noptions with expirations of less than a year.&nbsp;\nThat comprises the vast majority of available options contracts.&nbsp; The reason for expressing volatility that way\nis somewhat archaic, stemming from the early adoption of the Black-Scholes\noptions pricing model.&nbsp; It was a\ngroundbreaking academic development, in many ways responsible for the\nwidespread adoption of derivatives, but it utilizes annual volatility and the\npractice of expressing volatility in annualized percentage terms has persisted\never since.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The problem is that volatility is actually calculated on a\ndaily basis, then converted to the annualized numbers we usually see.&nbsp; The measurement of volatility derives from\nthe daily moves that a security makes.&nbsp;\nThe dispersion of daily returns over a period of time allows us to\ncalculate the standard deviation of that security.&nbsp; Standard deviation is incredibly useful, as\nit allows us to compare the relative riskiness of two securities that may have\nsimilar average returns.&nbsp; The one with a\nhigher standard deviation would display a higher historical volatility, and its\noptions should be priced higher.&nbsp; Think\nof it this way: the stock with a higher standard deviation, and thus a higher\nhistorical volatility, is more likely to reach a given strike price before an\noption\u2019s expiration before than it\u2019s less volatile counterpart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There is an easy way to convert the commonly displayed\nannualized volatility measures back into their more relevant daily counterparts\n\u2013 divide by the square root of business days in a year, which happens to be\njust about 16.&nbsp; The \u201cRule of 16\u201d should\nbecome second nature to anyone who utilizes options.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is also important to realize that volatility counts no\nmatter whether the move is up or down.&nbsp;\nWe are conditioned to expect that down moves are sharper than up moves,\nbut this week\u2019s activity proves that is not always the case.&nbsp; While it is true that implied volatilities\nand the VIX tend to rise during riskier times, that is often more a reflection\nof traders\u2019 risk aversion than the actual moves that underlie the calculations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If we look at the VIX Index at its current level of 64 (as I\nwrite this), a quick calculation shows that the options market is anticipating\nroughly 4% daily moves over the coming 30 days (64 \/ 16 = 4).&nbsp; Does that seem unreasonable in light of a market\nthat has been moving 3-6% on a daily basis?&nbsp;\nTraders can disagree whether this level of volatility is likely to be\nsustained over the next 30 days, but they would acknowledge that the current\nlevel of the VIX is sensible in light of recent movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Looking ahead, we can use VIX futures to see the market\u2019s best estimate of future volatility in the coming months.&nbsp; &nbsp;The green line in the graph below shows the level of current VIX futures trades.&nbsp; We can see a steady decline over the coming months, albeit with a slight bump around the November election (if you wonder why that bump is in October, remember that the VIX Index is a 30 day look-ahead).&nbsp; It certainly is reasonable to expect that volatility will ebb over the coming months \u2013 it is very difficult to imagine this current market environment persisting unabated for weeks, let alone months \u2013 but this is by no means an ironclad prediction.&nbsp; If you need a reminder of how the markets can get it wrong, look at the orange line below.&nbsp; That shows the levels of volatility predicted by the VIX futures market just 5 weeks ago.&nbsp; Blindsided, no?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"361\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/03\/image-75.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-39815 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/03\/image-75.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/03\/image-75-300x174.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/361;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: Bloomberg<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There can be confusion with the VIX, primarily from those who view the VIX as the market\u2019s fear gauge, rather than its actual purpose as an indicator of the market\u2019s best estimate of volatility in the S&#038;P 500 Index (SPX) over the next 30 days. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":36355,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,6,19,8,9,26,3],"tags":[317,860],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-39814","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-north-america","category-options","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-vix","tag-volatility","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The VIX is Too Darn High! 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Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/02\/stock-charts-broker.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39814","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39814"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39814\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/36355"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39814"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39814"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39814"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=39814"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}