{"id":33876,"date":"2020-02-03T14:56:00","date_gmt":"2020-02-03T19:56:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=33876"},"modified":"2023-02-10T13:34:23","modified_gmt":"2023-02-10T18:34:23","slug":"avoid-the-whipsaw","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/technical-analysis\/avoid-the-whipsaw\/","title":{"rendered":"Avoid the Whipsaw"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The type of market gyrations that we have seen over the past few trading sessions can be very treacherous for active traders, particularly those without a disciplined strategy.&nbsp; Traders who fall victims to markets that swing back and forth are said to be \u201cwhipsawed\u201d.&nbsp; The term refers to an old lumberjack\u2019s tool, a two-man saw that is pushed and pulled rapidly and can swing wildly if one user lets go:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"311\" height=\"162\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/02\/image-9.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-33877 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/02\/image-9.png 311w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/02\/image-9-300x156.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 311px) 100vw, 311px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 311px; aspect-ratio: 311\/162;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The equity market\u2019s version of a whipsaw looks like the following, illustrated by a 10-minute chart in SPY that displays the sharp swings that have punctuated the broader indices:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"442\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/02\/image-10.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-33878 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/02\/image-10.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/02\/image-10-300x213.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/442;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>And the options market\u2019s version of a whipsaw looks like this, illustrated by comparing snapshots of the VIX futures curves 3 days ago and 1 day ago to the current one:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"316\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/02\/image-11.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-33879 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/02\/image-11.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/02\/image-11-300x152.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/316;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>I expect that many readers find the first graph familiar but\nwould be unaccustomed to seeing the second.&nbsp;\nFutures on the VIX index are actively traded and usually show an upward\nsloping curve when the forward months are displayed on a graph.&nbsp; That phenomenon, displayed for most of the\nred line is known as \u201ccontango\u201d, the normal state of most futures markets.&nbsp; Contango reflects a relatively stable supply\nof a given commodity and the risk-free rate of capital over that time\nperiod.&nbsp; The opposite phenomenon, shown\nfor most of the orange line is called \u201cbackwardation\u201d.&nbsp; That reflects relative scarcity.&nbsp; The current reading, displayed on the green\nline, displays a disjointed market for volatility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Many of you may be wondering about the large hump at the\nback of the curves.&nbsp; That hump reflects\nthe preemptive volatility hedging that is occurring in the markets ahead of\nNovember\u2019s Presidential election.&nbsp; The\nbumps that we see in the upcoming months may be reflecting uncertainty\nsurrounding the Democratic primary process.&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While savvy traders will often view market movements as\nopportunities, they throw the tradeoff between risk and reward into focus.&nbsp; Here are some tips that I find helpful for\navoiding losses in market environments like the current one:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Know your loss tolerance in advance!&nbsp; If a 2% drawdown in the S&amp;P500 is enough\nto cause you pain, then you are taking on too much risk.&nbsp; Fast moving markets tend to have wider\nspreads and quotes that can seem ephemeral, making it very difficult to cut\nrisk while others are hoping to do the same.&nbsp;\nKnowing your risk tolerance also helps you with the next suggestion\u2026<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Don\u2019t panic!&nbsp;\nPanic means that you are acting viscerally, not intellectually.&nbsp; A trader\u2019s \u201cgut\u201d can be a very important\ndecision tool, but not when it outweighs the signals sent by that trader\u2019s\nbrain.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>You can make money trading delta (the moves in\nthe underlying) and you can make money trading volatility, but it is incredibly\ndifficult to do both in the same trade.&nbsp; If\na trader is engaging in a trade that attempts to capture movements in\nvolatility \u2013 using a call spread, for example &#8211; he needs to be careful about\nexposing himself to unhedged delta exposure.&nbsp;\nConversely, if a trader attempts to trade a direction move using\noutright puts or calls, that trader needs to be conscious that a move in the\nunderlying asset is likely to be accompanied by a change in its implied\nvolatility<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Go wider.&nbsp;\nMarket makers protect themselves by widening their quotes, while\nindividual options traders can protect themselves by widening their strike or\ntime horizons.&nbsp; The VIX graphs above show\nthat there is plenty of profit potential by trading beyond the front months,\nthough the swings are more manageable.&nbsp;\nBy widening one\u2019s strike space, you avoid selling near money calls and\nputs that suddenly become in the money.&nbsp; <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>These are some of the techniques that numerous other\ntechniques that I have learned from decades of trading.&nbsp; I\u2019ll be glad to reveal more in future\narticles and videos.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The type of market gyrations that we have seen over the past few trading sessions can be very treacherous for active traders, particularly those without a disciplined strategy.  Traders who fall victims to markets that swing back and forth are said to be \u201cwhipsawed\u201d.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,6,19,8,9,23,26,3],"tags":[207,262,317,3512],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-33876","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-ibkr-market-insights","7":"category-north-america","8":"category-options","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-technical-analysis","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-spx","15":"tag-spy","16":"tag-vix","17":"tag-vvix","18":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized 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He has held numerous roles in the organization since joining Timber Hill, IBKR\u2019s predecessor, in 1995 as Equity Risk Manager and an options market maker. He developed and implemented automated trading strategies for stocks and options before moving into his current role. Steve has guest authored several columns in Barron\u2019s and made numerous live on Bloomberg TV and Radio, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, and several other media outlets in North America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East in addition to being quoted frequently in print and electronic media. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33876","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33876"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33876\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33876"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33876"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33876"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=33876"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}