{"id":28572,"date":"2019-12-13T10:07:00","date_gmt":"2019-12-13T15:07:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=28572"},"modified":"2023-03-14T14:39:56","modified_gmt":"2023-03-14T18:39:56","slug":"3-reasons-sugar-futures-are-rising-and-how-to-invest-in-the-commodity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/commodities\/3-reasons-sugar-futures-are-rising-and-how-to-invest-in-the-commodity\/","title":{"rendered":"3 Reasons Sugar Futures are Rising and How to Invest in the Commodity"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong><em>Summary: Sugar production is being disrupted in various parts of the world, intentionally and unintentionally. Production is falling on a global level, as are stockpiles. Meanwhile, the United States, facing a supply deficit is on track to import more sugar this year than it has in almost four decades. All those factors, combined, could push sugar prices higher in 2020, creating an opportunity for investors to generate alpha. <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The price of sugar has experienced some <a href=\"https:\/\/www.macrotrends.net\/2537\/sugar-prices-historical-chart-data\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">serious ups and downs<\/a> this decade, and investors are hoping&nbsp;to embark on another dramatic \u201cup cycle\u201d like the one that occurred between mid-2015 and mid-2016. Sugar\u2019s price doubled during that period, although those gains completely evaporated over the following two years due to a supply glut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weather\npatterns, Brazil\u2019s allocation of its sugar crop to ethanol production, and the\nUS dollar\u2019s movement relative to the world\u2019s currencies are usually strong\ncontributors to sugar\u2019s price swings. This year is proving to be no different.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sugar\nprices have risen 18% over the past three months, supported by reduced\nproduction in Brazil and India, the #1 and #3 exporters in the world, and a\ndeveloping supply squeeze in the United States, which is a huge consumption\nmarket for sugar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-drop-in-india-s-2019-sugar-production-stockpiles\"><strong>Drop in\nIndia\u2019s 2019 Sugar Production &amp; Stockpiles <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Maharashtra,\nIndia\u2019s second-biggest sugar producing region, faced an unusual situation this\nyear. The price of cattle feed rose so much that it became more profitable for\nfarmers to sell their sugar cane as cow fodder than to process it into\nsweetener. Many farmers ended up selling their cane as cattle feed, leading to\na drop in India\u2019s sugar production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) puts out a <a href=\"https:\/\/apps.fas.usda.gov\/psdonline\/circulars\/sugar.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">monthly report on the world\u2019s sugar market and trade<\/a>. Last month\u2019s report showed a 15% decline in India\u2019s production, from 34.3 million tons in the season 2018\/19 to 29.3 million tons this new season. A 15% decline in India\u2019s sugar stockpiles is reflected as well, which should be supportive of global sugar prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-brazil-s-record-shift-to-ethanol\"><strong>Brazil\u2019s\nRecord Shift to Ethanol <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Brazil is responsible for one third of the world\u2019s sugar exports, per the <a href=\"https:\/\/apps.fas.usda.gov\/psdonline\/circulars\/sugar.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">November 2019 USDA report on sugar,<\/a> so any production or export declines in that market can affect global prices. Crude oil prices have been higher on average these past couple of years (December 2017 \u2013 December 2019) than during the preceding three years (December 2014 \u2013 December 2017). Higher oil prices have made ethanol more competitive than gasoline for Brazilian drivers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As ethanol demand boomed, so too did ethanol prices, prompting Brazil\u2019s farmers to dedicate a bigger share of their sugar cane crop <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2019-05-15\/world-s-top-sugar-trader-sees-record-shift-to-ethanol-in-brazil\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">to the production of the fuel rather than to the sweetener<\/a>. That shift partially explains the two-year decline in Brazil\u2019s sugar exports. During the upcoming 2019\/20 season, Brazil is forecasted to export 18.6 million tons of sugar. That\u2019s 5% less than last season and 34% less than the 2017\/18 season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-supply-deficit-in-the-united-states\"><strong>Supply\nDeficit in the United States <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Half of\nthe sugar produced in the United States comes from sugar beets, grown mainly in\nupper Midwest states like Minnesota, North Dakota, Colorado, and Montana. The\nother half of the country\u2019s sugar is derived from sugar cane grown in warmer\nstates like Florida, Hawaii, Louisiana and Texas. This year was particularly\nbad for both the sugar beet and sugar cane harvests due to inclement weather.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As a result, the US beet harvest for 2019-20 will be at least 10% lower than last year, while the sugar cane harvest will be 3-4% lower. Due to the <a href=\"https:\/\/newfoodeconomy.org\/sugar-shortage-beet-harvest-minnesota-north-dakota\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">production deficit<\/a>,&nbsp;the US has had to increase its&nbsp;sugar imports&nbsp;to meet domestic demand, a trend that will continue into 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Economists at the Agriculture Department estimate that meeting the domestic demand for sugar will take <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/sections\/thesalt\/2019\/12\/11\/786688879\/america-will-import-more-sugar-this-year-than-it-has-in-4-decades\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">3.86 million tons of imported sugar<\/a>, the greatest amount to be imported since 1981. Meanwhile, US stockpiles are expected to shrink to&nbsp;1.166 million tons, marking the lowest level in at least two decades and a decline of 28% from 2018\/19.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-winner-and-losers\"><strong>Winner\nand Losers <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The three\ndevelopments mentioned above are positive for the sugar market. Lower exports\nand stockpiles in countries like India and Brazil help to tighten global\nsupplies and support higher prices, benefitting those same countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>An\nadditional consideration&nbsp;that would help sugar prices would be some\nweakness in the US dollar. The buck\u2019s strength in recent years has weighed on\ncommodity prices including sugar. Any strides towards reducing trade tensions\nshould contribute to a softer dollar. In turn, any moderate weakening of the\ngreenback could boost sugar futures due to the inverse correlation between the dollar\nand commodity prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The\nbiggest impact from lower US production, meanwhile,&nbsp;will really be felt by\ncompanies that profit from increased US sugar imports &#8212; namely, foreign\nexporters that are able to send more sugar into the United States, and domestic\nrefiners that process incoming cane into sugar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Winners\nare US Sugar Cane Refineries: The imports into the United\nStates will be raw product from sugar cane (rather than beets) which can only\nbe processed at a handful of refineries in coastal locations such as Savannah,\nGa., Baltimore and New York City, according to Frank Jenkins, a sugar market\nexpert and head of JSG Commodities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usda.gov\/oce\/commodity\/wasde\">USDA\u2019s December 10 report<\/a> on World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates shows US cane sugar production hitting 3.91 million tons for 2019\/20. Adding projected imports of 3.86 million tons to that number essentially doubles the amount of cane sugar product that will need to be refined. Those coastal factories don&#8217;t usually see this much business in a typical year, so the extra volumes would represent a big win for them if they can ramp up their capacity utilization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Winners are Mexico\u2019s Sugar Exporters: While there are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.worldstopexports.com\/sugar-exports-country\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">plenty of countries<\/a> that can supply the United States with sugar, including Brazil, Thailand, France and India, most of the shipments will likely come from Mexico, because trade agreements give Mexico first dibs on the American market. As such, Mexico\u2019s sugar exporters are potentially big winners in the coming year, especially with the added support of USMCA behind them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While total US imports for the 2019\/20 season are projected to rise by 26% year-on-year (from 3.07 million tons to 3.86 million tons), imports from Mexico are projected to rise by a whopping 83% (from 1 million tons to 1.83 million tons), according to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usda.gov\/oce\/commodity\/wasde\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">USDA\u2019s December 10 report<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Brazil is\nranked second (after Mexico) among countries from which the US imports sugar.\nAs such, Brazil&nbsp;could also benefit next year, seeing that Mexico is\nprojected to supply just half of the imports needed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Losers are producers and processors of beet sugar: Rising commodity prices are usually bad for manufacturers that require the material to produce their end products. And US food and beverage companies are certainly paying more for their sugar lately, as prices have risen 18% since September. Still, with sugar trading on the commodity markets at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.macrotrends.net\/2537\/sugar-prices-historical-chart-data\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">$0.13 per pound<\/a> \u2014 which is 30% lower than three years ago and 60% lower than ten years ago \u2014 and companies able to bring sugar in from elsewhere, prices would have to rise significantly more before denting into the profits of candy-makers, bakers, and other commercial users.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The most pain will be felt by domestic entities that will lose business because of the bad harvests. This includes the growers that suffered crop losses (some farmers <a href=\"https:\/\/www.grandforksherald.com\/business\/agriculture\/4767305-American-Crystal-Sugar-Co.-growers-who-couldnt-deliver-crop-will-have-to-repay-company-343-per-unharvested-acre\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">lost more than a third<\/a> of their harvest) and processors with less product to refine into sugar. Two major distributors of sugar, including United Sugars Corp., took the rare step of declaring \u201cforce majeure,\u201d a legal term that companies invoke when they cannot honor a contract due to circumstances outside their control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-how-to-invest-in-sugar\"><strong>How to Invest in Sugar <\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Investors seeking exposure to sugar in the&nbsp;commodity markets&nbsp;can get it via the iPath Series B Bloomberg Sugar Subindex Total Return ETN (SGG), which launched in January 2018, or via the older but smaller Tecrium Sugar ETN (CANE). Both ETNs track&nbsp;an index of sugar futures contracts. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-sugar-vs-agricultural-commodities-vs-s-p-500\"><strong>Sugar vs Agricultural Commodities vs S&amp;P 500<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"789\" height=\"506\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/12\/mc1-2.png\" alt=\"Sugar vs Agricultural Commodities vs S&amp;P 500\" class=\"wp-image-28573 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/12\/mc1-2.png 789w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/12\/mc1-2-700x449.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/12\/mc1-2-300x192.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/12\/mc1-2-768x493.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 789px) 100vw, 789px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 789px; aspect-ratio: 789\/506;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"789\" height=\"507\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/12\/mc2-2.png\" alt=\"Sugar vs Agricultural Commodities vs S&amp;P 500 Sept\" class=\"wp-image-28574 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/12\/mc2-2.png 789w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/12\/mc2-2-700x450.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/12\/mc2-2-300x193.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/12\/mc2-2-768x494.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 789px) 100vw, 789px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 789px; aspect-ratio: 789\/507;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p> <strong>Questions, comments or learn more about subscribing to MRP, contact \u2013&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"mailto:Rob@mcalindenresearch.com\/646-964-6152\" target=\"_blank\">Rob@mcalindenresearch.com\/646-964-6152<\/a>.<\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sugar production is being disrupted in various parts of the world, intentionally and unintentionally. Production is falling on a global level, as are stockpiles. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":28573,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,21,5,17,6,8,9,1031,26,3],"tags":[563,530,772],"contributors-categories":[13614],"class_list":{"0":"post-28572","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-asia","8":"category-commodities","9":"category-europe-middle-east-africa","10":"category-futures","11":"category-north-america","12":"category-region","13":"category-securities","14":"category-south-america","15":"category-text-articles","16":"category-traders-insight","17":"tag-cycle","18":"tag-production","19":"tag-sugar","20":"contributors-categories-mcalinden-research-partners"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>3 Reasons Sugar Futures are Rising and How to Invest in the Commodity<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Sugar production is being disrupted in various parts of the world, intentionally and unintentionally. 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