{"id":261243,"date":"2026-11-13T13:15:00","date_gmt":"2026-11-13T18:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=261243"},"modified":"2026-11-13T13:33:58","modified_gmt":"2026-11-13T18:33:58","slug":"an-early-rug-pull","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/ibkr-market-insights\/an-early-rug-pull\/","title":{"rendered":"An Early Rug Pull"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">They tried this morning, they really did.&nbsp; There were a few attempts at rallies in the pre-market, but those eventually succumbed to a lack of follow-through.&nbsp; There was some mild enthusiasm after a better-than-expected headline PPI reading, but that faded when traders realized that any improvement was offset by upward revisions to last month\u2019s figures.&nbsp; More importantly, a nascent bounce in hard-hit Nvidia (NVDA) reversed course, and that led to a broader bout of selling in tech stocks.&nbsp; As of now, indexes are off their lows, but meandering at lower levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As noted, the Producer Price Index report for October was indeed encouraging at first glance.&nbsp; Both the headline and core readings rose by 0.3% for the month, and while the core matched economists\u2019 consensus, the headline was 0.1% below the 0.4% expectation.&nbsp; Unfortunately, both were revised higher by 0.1% for the prior month.&nbsp; That brought the headline to 1.4%, from a previously reported 1.3%, and the core rose to 0.4% from 0.3%.&nbsp; That negated the positive surprise for the headline and made the core slightly worse than expected.&nbsp; Bonds tried to rally, then reverted to small losses (higher yields) before finding a flight-to-safety bid when stocks sank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">About that reversal in stocks: it is important to remember that this has actually been a pretty good week for major indices despite some important negative events.&nbsp; Investors and traders clearly want this market to run higher or at least are afraid of missing an upward move.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For perspective, as I type this around 11:30 ET, 2- and 10-year yields are up by 34 and 28 basis points for the week, respectively.&nbsp; That is a stunning move, brought on by Tuesday\u2019s hotter-than-expected CPI report that spurred increasing expectations for rate hikes.&nbsp; Over that same period, the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (NDX) are up by 2% and 2.7%, respectively.&nbsp; We can debate whether bond or stock investors will prove correct over the long term, but today\u2019s drop notwithstanding, this has been generally a good week for stockholders.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There is of course one glaring exception. &nbsp;NVDA is down by more than 14% so far this week, and down more than 30% since the start of the third quarter. &nbsp;That said, if I had told you last week that major indices would advance even as the second-largest US stock \u2013 the linchpin of the AI industry \u2013 got clobbered amid a drumbeat of seemingly unrelenting bad news, would you have believed me?&nbsp; I doubt I would have believed myself. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Until this morning, the prevailing thought process has been, \u201cif NVDA is out of the way, who wins?\u201d&nbsp; Those winners include key semiconductor competitors like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Broadcom (AVGO), and hyperscalers like Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), and SpaceX (SPCX).&nbsp; If you need some extra evidence of that thesis, note&nbsp;that MSFT is slightly higher since its massive outage yesterday afternoon.&nbsp; (Gotta say, despite the inconvenience, I didn\u2019t mind the respite from emails for a while.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Among those seeking opportunities is the multitude of NVDA dip-buyers, unfortunately.&nbsp; Although I have only very limited visibility into our customer activity, I have never seen anything close to the flow of net buy orders on our platform that I saw this week \u2013 and that flow increased steadily as the week progressed.&nbsp; While we will never advocate against aggressive traders seeking opportunities in oversold financial assets, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/region\/selling-the-news-is-getting-old\/\">we noted a key consideration<\/a> for traders earlier this month in the wake of poor earnings reports from GOOGL and Intel (INTC):<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>If the news is legitimately bad, be patient.&nbsp; A stock that is getting hit because of a legitimate shortfall in a key valuation metric will take some time to recover.&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Remember, traders react while investors consider.&nbsp; Institutional investors are likely to reallocate major positions over the course of several days as their internal analysts and portfolio managers reevaluate their models, particularly if they are already<\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/pre-earnings-positioning-is-key\/\"><strong><em>fully- or overweighted against their benchmarks<\/em><\/strong><\/a><em>.&nbsp; It will likely take time to build a bottom.&nbsp; Aggressive traders might see an opportunity to buy an oversold stock, but those conditions can and often do persist for days or even weeks.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Regarding NVDA, we are certainly dealing with a key fundamental event that outweighs even an earnings shortfall.&nbsp; I know of no other way to characterize an unexpected ousting of its CEO amid swirling concerns about export violations and espionage.&nbsp; It is clear that institutional investors are reassessing their opinions about that company and its prospects; thus it is dragging on the stock price for longer than many traders initially hoped.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Still, the stock market\u2019s mentality right now is not about assessing risks, it\u2019s about seeking opportunities.&nbsp; If growth stocks are down, let\u2019s look at value stocks.&nbsp; If high-beta stocks are declining, let\u2019s move into low-beta stocks.&nbsp; When the opposite occurs, the reverse applies.&nbsp; And so goes the market rotation.&nbsp; Befitting that theme today, even with SPX trading about 1% lower, we have five of its 11 sectors trading higher.&nbsp; All are defensive: consumer staples, financials, utilities, energy, and health care.&nbsp; If Mr. Market can find a narrative that fits his desired outcome, he will.&nbsp; But that can\u2019t be relied upon every day in all circumstances.&nbsp; Today is one of those days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>They tried this morning, they really did.\u00a0 There were a few attempts at rallies in the pre-market, but those eventually succumbed to a lack of follow-through.\u00a0 There was some mild enthusiasm after a better-than-expected headline PPI reading, but that faded when traders realized that any improvement was offset by upward revisions to last month\u2019s figures.\u00a0 More importantly, a nascent bounce in hard-hit Nvidia (NVDA) reversed course, and that led to a broader bout of selling in tech stocks.\u00a0 As of now, indexes are off their lows, but meandering at lower levels.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":232409,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[3922,18446,4505,11370,4722],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-261243","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-market-rotation","tag-nvidia-stock","tag-producer-price-index","tag-semiconductor-stocks","tag-technology-stocks","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.8) 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