{"id":261113,"date":"2026-11-11T13:09:50","date_gmt":"2026-11-11T18:09:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=261113"},"modified":"2026-11-11T14:28:41","modified_gmt":"2026-11-11T19:28:41","slug":"subdued-initial-unemployment-claims-expected-again-as-185k-yes-goes-for-0-62","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/subdued-initial-unemployment-claims-expected-again-as-185k-yes-goes-for-0-62\/","title":{"rendered":"Subdued Initial Unemployment Claims Expected Again, As 185k \u201cYes\u201d Goes For $0.62: Nov. 11, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Initial unemployment claims are anticipated to remain subdued, as labor conditions continue to reflect cyclical stability and a lack of layoff appetites. Last Thursday\u2019s print came in at 189k, and heading into tomorrow\u2019s update, the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets “Yes” contracts <\/a>with thresholds of 180k, 185k, 190k and 195k are going for $0.82, $0.62, $0.31 and $0.08, implying a central projection around 186k. But the median estimate in the Reuters poll consisting of 40 forecasters is 195k, meanwhile, amidst minimum and maximum values of 182k and 200k.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Consider 3.8 Million \u201cYes\u201d on Existing Home Sales<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Existing home sales have not fallen below 3.8 million seasonally adjusted annualized units since December 2023, 34 months ago. Meanwhile, the \u201cYes\u201d contract <\/a>at that threshold is going for just $0.53 within Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets, which is significantly undervalued in my opinion. Elsewhere, the \u201cYeses\u201d at 3.7, 3.9, and 4 million are being offered at $0.89, $0.24 and $0.08 against the backdrop of the prior month\u2019s print coming in at 3.99 million. In the monthly Reuters poll consisting of 47 forecasters, the median estimate is 3.85 million, amidst minimum and maximum projections of 3.7 million and 4 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Nov. 11, 2026.<\/a><\/em>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/jose-torres\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/unemployment-claim-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/261113","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/903"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=261113"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/261113\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":261158,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/261113\/revisions\/261158"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/223537"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=261113"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=261113"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=261113"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=261113"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}