{"id":260547,"date":"2026-11-04T13:18:41","date_gmt":"2026-11-04T18:18:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=260547"},"modified":"2026-11-04T15:45:24","modified_gmt":"2026-11-04T20:45:24","slug":"will-stocks-rally-after-election-day","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/will-stocks-rally-after-election-day\/","title":{"rendered":"Will Stocks Rally After Election Day?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Will stocks rally after the 2026 midterm elections, or is more volatility ahead? IBKR&#8217;s Vrushabh Doshi sits down with Dave Keller, President and Chief Strategist at Market Misbehavior, to explore historical market patterns, shifting sector leadership, and what investors should watch as Wall Street heads into 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"Will Stocks Rally After Election Day?\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=t2aiu-1ba2513-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=ffffff&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-439\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 439<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-vrushabh-doshi\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Vrushabh Doshi<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hello, and welcome back to the IBKR Podcast. We&#8217;re taping this on Tuesday, November 3rd, which means it&#8217;s Election Day. There&#8217;s a bit of an eerie quiet here in Manhattan, admittedly. It always seems like the drama comes to a standstill when the day actually arrives.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I feel like there&#8217;s a lot of anticipation in the air. But as people all over the nation make their way into the voting booth, Wall Street is watching closely. So what we&#8217;re after today is just how much midterm elections really matter for the markets, and what history can tell us about what happens next.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To make sense of it all, we have Dave Keller, president and chief strategist at Market Misbehavior, returning to the show. We&#8217;ll be looking at historical market patterns, what the charts are telling us today, and where investors might find opportunities as we head into 2027. Welcome back to the show, Dave.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-dave-keller\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dave Keller<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thanks so much, Vrushabh. Appreciate it.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-vrushabh-doshi-0\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Vrushabh Doshi<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yeah, no problem. So let&#8217;s hop into it. I figured we should start with a little bit of history, just to contextualize where we&#8217;re at. When we look back at previous midterm elections, are there certain patterns that tend to show up in the stock market? And do those patterns actually tell us anything useful about what might happen this time around?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-dave-keller-0\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dave Keller<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yeah, so seasonality in the market is a pretty well-documented phenomenon, right? And it&#8217;s not just about midterm election years. In average years, we can see some general patterns. Things like &#8220;sell in May and go away,&#8221; things like a Santa Claus rally, have generally been found to be pretty accurate over time.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Midterm election years, though, are pretty interesting and unique because you have this sort of judgment call on the presidential administration that happens halfway through the term. As you probably know, and I feel like we&#8217;re all inundated with political news these days, usually in a midterm election year, whichever president&#8217;s party is in power, the other party starts to gain some ground in the elections.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Usually, the popularity of the president has gone down, and all of that has played out pretty much as you&#8217;d expect in 2026. What&#8217;s interesting from a market perspective is that you often get a significant fourth-quarter rally. In an average year, that happens, but especially in midterm election years.\u00a0And what&#8217;s really interesting is that November, if you go back to the last seven midterm election years, has always been a positive month. Even when the market overall has struggled in the fourth quarter, November has always been positive. So the way I tend to think of it is that you usually have some skepticism, some indecision going into the elections.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Once the uncertainty becomes more of a certainty, and we have a sense of what the political spectrum is going to look like for the next couple of years, the market regains confidence and starts to gain a little bit.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Having said that, October was weaker than you&#8217;d expect. October has usually been a positive month in a midterm election year, and it was actually down after the sell-off that we saw last week. So I would say, overall, there&#8217;s a big question mark going into this election season, for sure.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-vrushabh-doshi-1\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Vrushabh Doshi<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Well, that leads right into the next question. I wonder if we sometimes give politics a bit too much credit. How much of what happens on Wall Street is really about who&#8217;s in Washington versus things like inflation, interest rates, and the broader economy?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-dave-keller-1\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dave Keller<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I mean, it&#8217;s such a fun question. And to be honest with you, every president that I&#8217;ve seen in my lifetime has always taken credit when the economy is doing well, and anytime things are not going well, they tend to blame it on a predecessor or someone else. And that&#8217;s not unique to this particular president in this particular year.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That&#8217;s very common. And if you look back in history, it&#8217;s easy to say, &#8220;All right, what do the markets do when it&#8217;s a Republican- or Democrat-controlled White House or Congress?&#8221;\u00a0To be honest with you, the forces that really drive market conditions, I would argue, are less about the president and what they&#8217;re able to do, and more about some of these larger forces that you mentioned, right?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And I think that&#8217;s something that is certainly top of mind in 2026. Once the elections are over, and once we figure out what Congress and the president, and all of this, is going to look like, we&#8217;re still left with a conflict in the Middle East that I&#8217;m guessing will most likely still be going on as of tomorrow.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We&#8217;ve got other conflicts around the world. We have interest rates that are elevated, inflation that is persistent. We&#8217;re in the middle of a Fed rate hike cycle. The whole AI bubble issue, with these companies and investors really starting to think about which of these companies are justifying these elevated valuations.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">All of those were issues yesterday. I think all of those will still be issues tomorrow. So for me, it&#8217;s not that the elections are a distraction. There are certainly some policy implications, some fiscal implications, with a new party maybe being in power, and there being a bit of an imbalance between the president and Congress, which seems like a likely outcome.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But at the end of the day, whoever&#8217;s in power is still going to have to deal with these major forces. So for me and my portfolio, I&#8217;m much less concerned about who controls Congress and much more concerned with inflation, interest rates, the AI bubble, and geopolitical issues globally.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Those are the things that really stand to move markets in the weeks and months to come, I think.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-vrushabh-doshi-2\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Vrushabh Doshi<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Well, let&#8217;s dive into it. I know you spend a lot of time looking at the charts, so I guess we can bring it into 2026. If you&#8217;re looking at the market right now, what stands out to you? Are you seeing anything that makes you particularly optimistic or maybe a little cautious about where stocks go from here?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-dave-keller-2\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dave Keller<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">No, it&#8217;s a really good question. And I would say, from a technical perspective, if you look at the charts, there&#8217;s certainly been a significant leadership rotation that I think pretty much all investors have started to wake up and realize now.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It certainly feels, in a lot of ways, like the music has stopped on the AI trade, or at least been paused, right? I think earlier this year, it was anything connected to AI getting bid up higher and higher, with huge expectations going forward. Now we&#8217;re seeing investors start to be a little more choosy.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I wouldn&#8217;t say we&#8217;ve gone from being irrational to being rational. I don&#8217;t think we&#8217;re anywhere close to that benchmark. But I would say, on the spectrum, we&#8217;re a little less irrational. Meaning, it&#8217;s not just about whether a company is doing something with AI. It&#8217;s more about whether these hyperscalers are spending a ton of money, and whether that spending is justified as expectations continue to increase.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And we&#8217;ve seen that in the last couple of weeks with companies like Meta and Alphabet. Not that they&#8217;re not making a ton of money. They are. They&#8217;re spending a ton of money on AI. They are. But it&#8217;s whether the expectations are continuing to improve.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Because once analysts start lowering, or at least lessening the pace of, expectations, that&#8217;s when a stock price can start to rotate higher, right? Just because the future is not as pristine as it might have looked.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So I think, for me, that means investors really probably need to be focused outside of technology, arguably mostly outside of growth, and looking at value sectors and defensive sectors to recognize the fact that there are a lot of stocks outside of technology that actually look remarkably strong.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I&#8217;m not struggling to find good charts. And the last comment I would make, tying it back to the elections, is if you go back to 2018, which was not too long ago, during Trump&#8217;s first term, we actually had a major low in mid-December.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So the markets drifted a little bit higher in November, but they ended up making a major low around mid-December. And it was a very similar environment to what we&#8217;re seeing in 2026, where the elections, in a lot of ways, were sort of like a break in the action.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Then investors realized that all of the issues that were there yesterday were still there. It was still sort of a risk-off move, and then the markets finally found their footing, and buyers came in going into the new year.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And I wouldn&#8217;t be surprised if we have a similar sort of feel in 2026. Certainly, with the weakness that we&#8217;re seeing in big tech and the Magnificent Seven, it&#8217;s hard to imagine the benchmarks really mounting any significant move without their support. And we&#8217;re really not seeing them in a leadership role here.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-vrushabh-doshi-3\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Vrushabh Doshi<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Depending on how the election shakes out, I guess we could see some pretty interesting shifts across different parts of the market.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Are there any sectors or industries you&#8217;re keeping a particularly close eye on? And are we already seeing signs of where investors might be moving their money?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-dave-keller-3\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dave Keller<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So one of the classic signs I&#8217;ve learned to look for to recognize a market top, not way after it&#8217;s happened, but as it&#8217;s happening, is that you usually get a pretty good leadership rotation.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Whatever was leading in the previous cycle starts to lag. Other areas of the market, particularly defensive sectors, start to improve.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And sure enough, if you look at August, September, and October, even though the major benchmarks have been relatively flat, the S&amp;P is still right about where it was in early August at this point. Even though it&#8217;s been choppy, sloppy, and noisy day to day, the trend has generally been sideways.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But while that&#8217;s been happening, we&#8217;ve actually seen a lot of rotation underneath the hood. Energy, for example, has been remarkably strong when crude oil prices have gone higher. We&#8217;re seeing that kind of reverse this week as headlines from the Middle East have gotten a little more encouraging.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So we&#8217;re seeing leadership in other areas of the market. Defensive sectors, in particular, are ones that I&#8217;ve learned to look for. And I would say the fact that consumer staples look as strong as they do is something I&#8217;d put on the list of reasons not to be too excited about the market, right? That&#8217;s sort of an issue.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I was taught by one of my mentors, Alan Shaw, who was the technical analyst at Smith Barney back in the day. He said, &#8220;When the going gets tough, the tough get eating, smoking, and drinking.&#8221;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So when you see beverages, alcohol, grocery stores, and food products, those are things that are relatively immune to economic forces, right?\u00a0Because if the economy kind of goes crazy, you&#8217;re not going to buy a new watch. You won&#8217;t go on a crazy trip. But you&#8217;re probably still going to buy tobacco, alcohol, cleaning products, and personal care products. Those are pretty stable, or staples, as we consider them.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So the fact that beverage companies look remarkably strong and grocery stores are looking better and better, these are some of the better charts that I&#8217;m seeing.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I would say consumer staples is one area in particular. Healthcare is another one, and it&#8217;s not just particular areas. I think if you look at pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, and medical supplies, in each one of those groups, you have stocks that are showing some real strength.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I mean, classic uptrend phases, up and to the right.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So I would say, for a lot of investors, if you&#8217;ve been overcommitted to the AI trade, which I don&#8217;t blame you for because it&#8217;s been very easy to ride that up, what happens is, as that trade continues to work, your portfolio, whether you intend it or not, becomes more and more weighted toward it.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Because as those stocks do better, they become a bigger and bigger weight, and all of a sudden, you have one theme, and that&#8217;s your portfolio, right? It&#8217;s like an AI portfolio.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So I&#8217;ve been encouraging my clients to focus outside of that, on things like healthcare, consumer staples, and selectively in energy and industrials. This is where we&#8217;re finding some of the improving charts.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So while the AI trade is struggling and stocks like Nvidia are breaking down, I would say many others are in a position of strength. That&#8217;s where I&#8217;m going to want to look for opportunities.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-vrushabh-doshi-4\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Vrushabh Doshi<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Well, speaking of old sayings, there&#8217;s another one that says markets hate uncertainty. So once the election is behind us and some of that uncertainty clears, could the biggest market moves actually still be ahead?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I don&#8217;t know. What should investors be paying attention to as we head into 2027?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-dave-keller-4\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dave Keller<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yeah, so I think the biggest risk in terms of the elections is really just the policy shifts, right? And we&#8217;ve certainly, again, not to get too political, but we&#8217;ve been in a situation in the U.S. where the president has had a lot of opportunities to put policies into place with little or no checks and balances on those decisions.\u00a0It certainly seems likely that we&#8217;ll see less of that situation, and we&#8217;ll have at least one of the houses of Congress run by Democrats. And as a result, I would imagine a few more checks on power. I would imagine less volatility with policy decisions, although it&#8217;s hard to imagine because it&#8217;s been pretty volatile so far.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So I think, at the end of the day, what happens between now and year-end, and certainly into Q1, is really going to be about earnings and how companies are able to navigate this macro environment, right?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Whatever parties are in power, in some ways, have the opportunity to influence macro factors, but there&#8217;s a lag. It takes time for those things to be put in place.\u00a0Companies and how they report earnings are some of the best indicators of the real-life impact of these different policy decisions. So if companies are skeptical about their ability to thrive in a high-inflation, high-interest-rate environment, that&#8217;s going to come out in their earnings reports.\u00a0And we&#8217;ve started to see that with Q3 earnings, with companies giving less rosy expectations and analysts, as a result, bringing down their forward-looking estimates.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So I would say, as we wrap up this earnings season and head into Q4 earnings, which will be in mid-January, I think that&#8217;s where we&#8217;re going to get a lot of color on the potential impact.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I would say what we&#8217;re seeing is a differentiation between all the companies spending on AI and identifying the ones that really justify those higher valuations.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I think we&#8217;ll end up with a much smaller group of leaders in that space. So instead of buying the entire AI stack, we want to be selective. But I think those opportunities are going to be pretty clear.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I don&#8217;t think the AI trade is over. I think it&#8217;s certainly a hiccup, a pause before we reset and have more of a focused advance.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So I&#8217;ll be looking at the charts to see which names are starting to emerge.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-vrushabh-doshi-5\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Vrushabh Doshi<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We&#8217;re going to have to stay tuned to find out what happens. I imagine we&#8217;ll know pretty quickly how things are going to shake out politically, and then all of us will take it from there.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So I guess that wraps it up. Dave Keller, President and Chief Strategist at Market Misbehavior, thank you for joining the program again.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-dave-keller-5\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dave Keller<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yeah, it&#8217;s a pleasure to join you. Thanks so much.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-vrushabh-doshi-6\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Vrushabh Doshi<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Absolutely. And to our audience, feel free to download our podcast wherever you get your podcasts, whether that&#8217;s Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or anywhere else. You&#8217;ll find IBKR Podcasts.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And feel free to check out IBKR Campus as well. We have a bunch of educational material there, including webinars, articles, quizzes, and all of our podcast content.\u00a0It&#8217;s all free of charge, and it&#8217;s an excellent resource for anybody who wants to deepen their knowledge.\u00a0So we&#8217;ll see you on the next one. Thanks, everyone!\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>New to Interactive Brokers?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/ndcdyn.interactivebrokers.com\/Universal\/Application?utm_source=podAWAcc&amp;utm_ibsource=podAWAcc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Open Account<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Will stocks rally after the 2026 midterm elections, or is more volatility ahead? 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IBKR&#039;s Vrushabh Doshi sits down with Dave Keller, President and Chief Strategist at Market Misbehavior, to explore historical market patterns, shifting sector leadership, and what investors should watch as Wall Street heads into 2027.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/will-stocks-rally-after-election-day\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-11-04T18:18:41+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-11-04T20:45:24+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/11\/pod-20261103-keller_coverimage-1100x619.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1100\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"619\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta 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