{"id":259862,"date":"2026-10-26T12:55:17","date_gmt":"2026-10-26T16:55:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=259862"},"modified":"2026-10-26T15:38:35","modified_gmt":"2026-10-26T19:38:35","slug":"polls-are-tighter-but-prediction-markets-sigal-95-chance-of-becerra-winning-cas-governor-race","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/polls-are-tighter-but-prediction-markets-sigal-95-chance-of-becerra-winning-cas-governor-race\/","title":{"rendered":"Polls Are Tighter, But Prediction Markets Signal 95% Chance of Becerra Winning CA\u2019s Governor Race: Oct. 26, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the West Coast, Democrat Xavier Becerra has a 95% chance of winning the California gubernatorial race, according to Interactive Brokers <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/predictionmarkets\/app\/#\/853715674\/product-details\/contracts?exchange=KALSHI\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">IBKR Prediction Markets<\/a>. His Republican party opponent, Steve Hilton, carries a probability near zero. Polling, however, shows a smaller gap with Becerra having support of 60% of likely voters. Like many Democrats, Becerra, a former California attorney general, US secretary of health and human services and a 12-term member of the US House of Representatives, is campaigning against recent increases in the cost of living and restrictive immigration policies. He faces accusations from Hilton of ideological extremism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1098\" height=\"404\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-39-1098x404.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-259863 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1098px; aspect-ratio: 1098\/404;aspect-ratio:2.7155963302752295;width:1480px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-39-1098x404.png 1098w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-39-299x110.png 299w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-39-698x257.png 698w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-39-766x282.png 766w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-39-1536x565.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-39-2048x754.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1098px) 100vw, 1098px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-new-home-sales-expected-to-decline\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>New Home Sales Expected To Decline<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">September new home sales are expected to post a decline from August\u2019s 684k seasonally adjusted annualized units, as elevated mortgage rates and lofty valuations continue to challenge affordability conditions. Indeed, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/predictionmarkets\/app\/#\/751047542\/product-details\/contracts?exchange=FORECASTX\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">IBKR Prediction Markets<\/a> at 615k, 640k, 665k and 690k within Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets are going for $0.79, $0.59, $0.29 and $0.12, against the backdrop of the consensus economist estimate standing at 650k in the monthly Reuters poll of 41 forecasters. But this indicator is volatile and has the potential to feature sharper swings on a relative basis, and in consideration of those historical tendencies, the minimum and maximum projection in the aforementioned survey are wide apart, at 610k and 700k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1099\" height=\"405\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-40-1099x405.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-259864 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1099px; aspect-ratio: 1099\/405;aspect-ratio:2.712727272727273;width:1492px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-40-1099x405.png 1099w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-40-700x258.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-40-298x110.png 298w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-40-768x283.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-40-1536x566.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-40-2048x755.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1099px) 100vw, 1099px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><strong><em><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of <a>October 26, 2026.<\/a><\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong><em>here<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On the West Coast, Democrat Xavier Becerra has a 95% chance of winning the California gubernatorial race, according to Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":214697,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[842,22100],"contributors-categories":[],"class_list":["post-259862","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-elections","tag-interactive-brokers-prediction-markets"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Polls Are Tighter, But Prediction Markets Signal 95% Chance 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