{"id":259558,"date":"2026-10-21T13:08:46","date_gmt":"2026-10-21T17:08:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=259558"},"modified":"2026-10-22T05:07:11","modified_gmt":"2026-10-22T09:07:11","slug":"canada-new-home-prices-carrying-34-odds-of-exceeding-0-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/canada-new-home-prices-carrying-34-odds-of-exceeding-0-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Canada New Home Prices Carrying 34% Odds Of Exceeding -0.2%: Oct. 21, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Canadian new home prices carry 34% odds of declining less than 0.2% in tomorrow&#8217;s print, after the indicator hit -0.1% for the three consecutive months through August. Elevated interest rates and sluggish economic growth have weighed on the nation\u2019s real estate sector, which is why the gauge has been negative for 6 straight months and for most reports since April 2025, achieving a positive number just once throughout that time span. Over and under in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets, meanwhile, the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/predictionmarkets\/app\/#\/787272478\/product-details\/contracts?exchange=FORECASTX&amp;conid_yes=905057147\">IBKR Prediction Markets<\/a> at 0% and -0.4% are going for $0.21 and $0.79.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1098\" height=\"408\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/Picture1-7-1098x408.jpg\" alt=\"Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets and Canada New Housing Price Index\" class=\"wp-image-259560 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/Picture1-7-1098x408.jpg 1098w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/Picture1-7-299x111.jpg 299w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/Picture1-7-700x260.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/Picture1-7-767x285.jpg 767w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/Picture1-7-1536x571.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/Picture1-7.jpg 1715w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1098px) 100vw, 1098px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1098px; aspect-ratio: 1098\/408;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-hong-kong-cpi-expected-at-1-8\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Hong Kong CPI Expected At 1.8%<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hong Kong\u2019s Consumer Price Index is anticipated to have risen 1.8% last month, according to the monthly Reuters poll of 8 forecasters. The range of potential outcomes is quite narrow for tomorrow\u2019s release, as the minimum and maximum projections stand at 1.6% and 1.8%, with the survey signaling a stronger chance of a downside miss rather than an upside beat. Against this backdrop the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/predictionmarkets\/app\/#\/725452897\/product-details\/contracts?exchange=FORECASTX&amp;conid_yes=903931567\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">IBKR Prediction Markets<\/a> in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets at the 1.5% and 2% thresholds are going for $0.85 and $0.05, as investors don\u2019t see the release hitting any of those two figures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1098\" height=\"414\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/Picture2-6-1098x414.jpg\" alt=\"Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets and the Hong Kong Consumer Price Index \" class=\"wp-image-259562 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/Picture2-6-1098x414.jpg 1098w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/Picture2-6-300x113.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/Picture2-6-697x263.jpg 697w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/Picture2-6-766x289.jpg 766w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/Picture2-6-1536x579.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/Picture2-6.jpg 1705w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1098px) 100vw, 1098px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1098px; aspect-ratio: 1098\/414;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-initial-claims-expected-at-200k\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Initial Claims Expected at 200k<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tomorrow\u2019s initial unemployment claims are expected to come in around 200k tomorrow morning, according to the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market, which prices the \u201cYes\u201d consistent with that threshold at $0.51. It also happens to be the median estimate in the weekly Reuters poll of 33 forecasters, which carries a range spanning from 195k to 240k. Against this backdrop, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/predictionmarkets\/app\/#\/626425577\/product-details\/contracts?exchange=FORECASTX&amp;conid_yes=928149855\">IBKR Prediction Markets<\/a> at 190k, 195k, 205k and 210k, are going for $0.85, $0.80, $0.26 and $0.04. If any investors agree that a significant upside surprise could be in the cards, like at least one of the economists in the aforementioned survey that entered 240k, then the $0.04 \u201cYes\u201d at 210k would offer an attractive risk-reward opportunity in my opinion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1098\" height=\"406\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/Picture3-4-1098x406.jpg\" alt=\"Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets and US Initial Jobless Claims\" class=\"wp-image-259561 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/Picture3-4-1098x406.jpg 1098w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/Picture3-4-298x110.jpg 298w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/Picture3-4-697x258.jpg 697w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/Picture3-4-768x284.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/Picture3-4-1536x568.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/Picture3-4.jpg 1722w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1098px) 100vw, 1098px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1098px; aspect-ratio: 1098\/406;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-bank-of-korea-to-hold\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Bank of Korea To Hold<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Bank of Korea is widely anticipated to hold rates steady tomorrow to assess the economic impact of two consecutive hikes made in July and August.&nbsp; Despite inflation cooling to 2.9% from 3.1%, buoyant stock market performance and robust export momentum tied to the global AI expansion are risks to the monetary policy authority\u2019s price pressure objective. For that reason, investors do think that another increase could come in November, however, Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets have the odds of a pause in October at 80%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1099\" height=\"406\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/Picture4-1-1099x406.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-259563 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/Picture4-1-1099x406.jpg 1099w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/Picture4-1-298x110.jpg 298w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/Picture4-1-698x258.jpg 698w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/Picture4-1-766x283.jpg 766w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/Picture4-1-1536x567.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/Picture4-1.jpg 1711w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1099px) 100vw, 1099px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1099px; aspect-ratio: 1099\/406;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><strong><em><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of <a>October 21, 2026.<\/a><\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong><em>here<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Canadian new home prices carry 34% odds of exceeding -0.2% tomorrow morning, after the indicator hit -0.1% for the three consecutive months through August. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":216611,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[4,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[4727,22291,15688],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-259558","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-asia","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-bank-of-korea","tag-canada-new-home-prices","tag-unemployment-claims","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.8) - 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