{"id":259280,"date":"2026-10-19T11:15:00","date_gmt":"2026-10-19T15:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=259280"},"modified":"2026-10-19T11:15:28","modified_gmt":"2026-10-19T15:15:28","slug":"are-companies-reducing-ai-spending-chip-orders-say-otherwise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/are-companies-reducing-ai-spending-chip-orders-say-otherwise\/","title":{"rendered":"Are Companies Reducing AI Spending? Chip Orders Say Otherwise"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Investors keep selling chip stocks.<\/a> The iShares Semiconductor ETF<\/strong> (NASDAQ:<\/a>SOXX<\/a>) fell 11.8% last week. It has now declined for nine straight days\u2014its longest losing streak since 2006.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The damage was worse among the companies that build chipmaking machines and memory. Applied Materials Inc.<\/strong> (NASDAQ:<\/a>AMAT<\/a>) fell 19.3%, Lam Research Corp.<\/strong> (NASDAQ:<\/a>LRCX<\/a>) dropped 17.2% and Micron Technology Inc.<\/strong> (NASDAQ:<\/a>MU<\/a>) lost 14.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fear behind the selling had a simple shape. The artificial intelligence boom might be running out of buyers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Online, that fear had already found its own words. Searches for “companies reducing artificial intelligence spending” surged on Google Trends, after a wave of reports on corporations cutting back on AI tools.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If companies spend less on AI, the reasoning goes, chipmakers will sell less.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet research notes that Wall Street analysts in the past few days say the opposite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bank Of America Sees A Cycle Priced For A Crash<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya<\/strong> said in a Friday note that the chip sector already prices in a collapse he does not expect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AI leaders Nvidia Corp.<\/strong> (NASDAQ:<\/a>NVDA<\/a>), Broadcom Inc.<\/strong> (NASDAQ:<\/a>AVGO<\/a>) and Micron trade at about 13 times forward earnings on average, according to Arya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That multiple compares a stock\u2019s price with the profit analysts expect over the next 12 months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It sits within the range Cisco Systems Inc.<\/strong> (NASDAQ:<\/a>CSCO<\/a>) traded at after the dot-com bubble burst.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Investors are paying post-crash multiples for a cycle that hasn\u2019t crashed,” Arya said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The comparison with 2000 also breaks down on usage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Back then, telecom companies had laid fiber-optic cable that sat idle. Today\u2019s AI infrastructure runs near full utilization, according to Arya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prices back that up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rental rates for Nvidia\u2019s older graphics processors, launched in 2020, 2022 and 2024, are up between 12% and 37% this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For Arya, that points to scarcity rather than oversupply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bank of America also estimates capital spending by the large cloud providers and specialist AI clouds at about $1.01 trillion in 2026, up 98% from last year. It sees about $1.39 trillion in 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cantor\u2019s C.J. Muse Says Equipment Is Sold Out<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On Monday, Cantor Fitzgerald analyst C.J. Muse<\/strong> published his team\u2019s takeaways from the SemiconWest trade show in San Francisco.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The first point directly addressed last week\u2019s fear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The analysts said chip equipment “is effectively sold out,” with customers giving at least eight quarters of visibility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ASML Holding NV<\/strong> (NASDAQ:<\/a>ASML<\/a>) is receiving purchase orders for 2029 and 2030, according to the note.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Applied Materials is tracking 110 new chip plants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Micron expects memory supply to be even tighter in 2027 than in 2026, with customers holding little to no inventory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Muse also described frustration among management teams. Most are operating in the strongest backdrop they have ever seen, while their share prices fall, according to the note.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe continue to recommend remaining Overweight Semis, as we view today\u2019s AI Infrastructure buildout as durable and elongated,\u201d the analyst said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why Companies Reducing AI Spending Is The Wrong Signal<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Oxford Economics raised its outlook for global business technology spending growth in 2026 to 14.8%, from 11.4%, in an Oct. 6 report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Spending on AI-related products is set to top $510 billion this year, up 54%, as firms move from experimentation towards operational deployment, according to the firm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cGlobal AI-related spending is projected to reach $3.4 trillion by 2035, or 23% of tech spend,\u201d , Oxford Economics said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Real Risk Ahead Is<\/strong> AI Monetization<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

None of this makes the AI trade risk-free. Bank of America\u2019s equity and quant strategy team led by Savita Subramanian<\/strong> pointed to a different problem in a separate Friday note.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AI capital spending has beaten forecasts by about 50% this year, while AI revenue has beaten them by only about 20%, according to the strategists. Meanwhile, the cost of capital for the largest cloud providers has risen to about 10%, up from 4% in 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other words, every dollar of data-center spending now has to earn more to pay for itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the strategists, “monetization vs. cost of capital is the only question that matters.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted October 19, 2026 – Are Companies Reducing AI Spending? Chip Orders Say Otherwise<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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