{"id":258902,"date":"2026-10-13T16:54:20","date_gmt":"2026-10-13T20:54:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=258902"},"modified":"2026-10-14T08:39:59","modified_gmt":"2026-10-14T12:39:59","slug":"prediction-markets-see-55-chance-of-cpi-over-3-6-tomorrow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/prediction-markets-see-55-chance-of-cpi-over-3-6-tomorrow\/","title":{"rendered":"Prediction Markets See 55% Chance of CPI Over 3.6% Tomorrow: Oct. 13, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Tomorrow\u2019s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is anticipated to feature the first acceleration since May, as heavier fuel costs lifted the rate of inflation. The increase, predominantly due to the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, has resulted in much higher bond yields impacting borrowing dynamics while generating some nervousness on Wall Street about potential volatility on the horizon. Additionally, it has materially worsened the chances of the Republican party\u2019s ability to hold both chambers of Congress during next month\u2019s midterm elections. September\u2019s figure is expected to ramp up to 3.6% from 3.4% in August, according to the monthly Reuters poll of 55 forecasters, which does carry a minimum and maximum projection of 3.1% and 4.1%. Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets, meanwhile, offer the 3.5%, 3.6% and 3.7% \u201cYes\u201d for $0.87, $0.55 and $0.12. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Core Expected To Feature Acceleration Too<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The core version of the CPI, which excludes food and energy due to their volatile characteristics, is anticipated to feature an acceleration as well, as August\u2019s 2.4% reading climbs to the median estimate of 2.5% in September, according to the monthly Reuters poll of 54 forecasters. But a key difference in the projections is that the range of expectations here sports a narrow width between 2.3% and 2.5%, indicating an ongoing limited spread from the lift in fuel costs to overall charges in the economy. Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets prices the 2.4%, 2.5% and 2.6% \u201cYeses\u201d at $0.96, $0.52 and $0.05.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Consider the $0.62, 4% \u201cYes\u201d on Singapore GDP<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Investors should consider the $0.62 \u201cYes\u201d at 4% corresponding to Singapore\u2019s Gross Domestic Product because its far beneath the most bearish projection in the monthly Reuters poll. Additionally, it would be the first time in last 4 occurrences of a print arriving at 4% or under, as economic activity has been quite buoyant in the city-state. Furthermore, of the 12 forecasters participating in the survey, the expectations ranged from 5.3% to 5.9%.   <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Spain CPI Revision To Be Near<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Spain\u2019s CPI rose 0.3% month over month from 104.638 to 104.9519 in September, which rounds up to 105, but tomorrow\u2019s revision could change that. Against this backdrop the \u201cYes\u201d at 105 carries a price of $0.22 within Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the <\/em>afternoon of October 13, 2026.<\/a><\/em>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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