{"id":258722,"date":"2026-10-09T10:45:29","date_gmt":"2026-10-09T14:45:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=258722"},"modified":"2026-10-09T14:54:38","modified_gmt":"2026-10-09T18:54:38","slug":"friday-10-9-update-on-forecastexs-live-hurricane-contracts-for-hurricane-isaias","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/friday-10-9-update-on-forecastexs-live-hurricane-contracts-for-hurricane-isaias\/","title":{"rendered":"Friday 10\/9 Update on ForecastEx&#8217;s Live Hurricane Contracts for Hurricane Isaias"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>As of Friday morning, October 9, ForecastEx quotes have Fort Walton Beach, Florida, with an 86% chance of a wind gust of 100 mph or more from Hurricane Isaias, and a 20% chance of a gust of 140 mph or more, a speed in the EF3 tornado range.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"578\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-24-1100x578.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-258727 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-24-1100x578.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-24-700x368.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-24-300x158.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-24-768x403.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-24-1536x806.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-24.png 1600w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/578;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>From the <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/weather.weatherclimatehumansystems.org\/hurricane.html\"><em>live hurricane decision support page<\/em><\/a><em>. The track and cone are from NHC&#8217;s 4 AM CDT Friday forecast, with the storm&#8217;s 7 AM position. The side panel shows Fort Walton Beach&#8217;s exceedance probability ladder.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-isaias-on-friday-morning\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Isaias on Friday morning<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Isaias became a major hurricane on Friday morning. At 7:20 AM CDT, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found maximum sustained winds of 120 mph (Category 3) about 240 miles south of Pensacola, with the storm moving north-northeast at 15 mph. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects landfall this evening or tonight within the Hurricane Warning area, which runs from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the Bay\/Gulf County line in Florida, and its forecast track crosses the coast near Pensacola Beach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The remaining question is how much strength Isaias will retain before reaching the coast. The storm is moving over water that is more than 2\u00b0C warmer than average and over some of the Gulf&#8217;s deepest warm waters, which can promote further intensification. Wind shear\u2014the change in wind speed and direction with height that tilts a hurricane and disrupts its structure\u2014is opposing strengthening. At 4 AM CDT, the NHC predicted a significant increase in shear, likely weakening Isaias somewhat before landfall, with the best forecast being a high-end Category 2. However, they also warned that if the onset of shear is delayed by about six hours, the hurricane could make landfall stronger than currently forecast.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-the-live-hurricane-contracts\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Live Hurricane contracts<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">ForecastEx&#8217;s Live Hurricane contracts ask questions of the form &#8220;Will Hurricane Isaias cause wind gusts of 100 mph or greater in Fort Walton Beach, FL?&#8221;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yesterday&#8217;s article, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/hurricane-isaias-and-forecastexs-live-hurricane-wind-gust-contracts\/\">Hurricane Isaias and ForecastEx&#8217;s Live Hurricane Wind Gust Contracts<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/ibkr-climate-energy\/live-hurricane-wind-gust-prediction-markets-at-forecastex\/\">ForecastEx&#8217;s Live Hurricane Wind Gust Prediction Markets<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/reask.earth\/resources\/live-hurricane-contracts-settlement-pricing\">Reask&#8217;s article<\/a> explain the contracts and their applications in more detail.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Reask&#8217;s latest LiveCyc forecast, the fair-value reference for these contracts, puts the chance of a gust of 100 mph or more for Fort Walton Beach at 86%, up from 28% on Thursday morning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fort Walton Beach has a 55% chance of a gust of 120 mph or more, 37% of 130 mph, 20% of 140 mph, and 7% of 150 mph. A 3-second gust of 140 mph falls in the 136 to 165 mph range the National Weather Service would rate an EF3 tornado (which also uses 3-second gusts in its definition).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fort Walton Beach is now the location most likely to record the highest wind gust overall across the Live Hurricane contracts&#8217; pre-defined locations. Its chance of recording the peak wind stands at 66%, up from 28% on Thursday morning. This is followed by Pensacola at 25%, and Panama City Beach at 8%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We&#8217;ll be watching how prices change through landfall tonight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"388\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-23-1100x388.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-258726 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-23-1100x388.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-23-700x247.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-23-300x106.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-23-768x271.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-23-1536x542.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-23.png 1600w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/388;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>From the <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/weather.weatherclimatehumansystems.org\/hurricane.html\"><em>live hurricane decision support page<\/em><\/a><em>. Exchange prices on the peak wind location contract since it was listed on Wednesday, and the current ladder of Yes and No prices.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-further-reading-on-the-risk-hedging-and-risk-transfer-applications-of-hurricane-forecast-contracts\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Further Reading on the Risk Hedging and Risk Transfer Applications of Hurricane Forecast Contracts<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/reask.earth\/resources\/live-hurricane-contracts-settlement-pricing\">Neighbourhood-scale wind data powers new live hurricane risk transfer contracts<\/a>, on how Metryc settles the contracts and how LiveCyc serves as their fair-value reference<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/hurricane-isaias-and-forecastexs-live-hurricane-wind-gust-contracts\/\">Hurricane Isaias and ForecastEx&#8217;s Live Hurricane Wind Gust Contracts<\/a>, Thursday&#8217;s introduction to the contracts for Isaias<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/ibkr-climate-energy\/live-hurricane-wind-gust-prediction-markets-at-forecastex\/\">Live Hurricane Wind Gust Prediction Markets at ForecastEx<\/a>, on how the per-location wind gust contracts list, trade, and settle<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/using-live-hurricane-forecastex-contracts-to-hedge-a-home-insurance-deductible-a-worked-example-from-hurricane-ian\/\">Using \u2018Live Hurricane\u2019 ForecastEx Contracts to Hedge a Home Insurance Deductible: A Worked Example from Hurricane Ian<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/esg\/hurricane-forecast-contracts\/\">Hurricane Forecast Contracts<\/a>, on how the count and landfall contracts work<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/ibkr-climate-energy\/disaster-insurance-applications-of-forecast-contracts\/\">Disaster Insurance Applications of Forecast Contracts<\/a>, on using landfall contracts as parametric cover<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/hurricane-forecast-contracts-as-a-diversifying-asset-in-an-investment-portfolio\/\">Hurricane Forecast Contracts as a Diversifying Asset in an Investment Portfolio<\/a>, on their correlation with conventional assets<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/bundling-no-hurricane-landfall-forecast-contracts-to-reduce-downside-risk\/\">Bundling &#8220;NO&#8221; Hurricane Landfall Forecast Contracts to Reduce Downside Risk<\/a>, on constructing a bundle across locations<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As of Friday morning, October 9, ForecastEx quotes have Fort Walton Beach, Florida, with an 86% chance of a wind gust of 100 mph or more from Hurricane Isaias, and a 20% chance of a gust of 140 mph or more, a speed in the EF3 tornado range.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1601,"featured_media":225837,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18931,18929,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-258722","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-climate-energy","category-prediction-market","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Friday 10\/9 Update on ForecastEx&#8217;s Live Hurricane Contracts for Hurricane Isaias<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"As of Friday 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