{"id":258258,"date":"2026-10-05T13:50:18","date_gmt":"2026-10-05T17:50:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=258258"},"modified":"2026-10-05T14:56:03","modified_gmt":"2026-10-05T18:56:03","slug":"odds-of-bitcoin-exceeding-100k-by-year-end-at-40-as-we-enter-the-heat-of-uptober","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/odds-of-bitcoin-exceeding-100k-by-year-end-at-40-as-we-enter-the-heat-of-uptober\/","title":{"rendered":"Odds of Bitcoin Exceeding $100K by Year-End at 40% As We Enter the Heat of \u201cUptober\u201d: Oct. 5, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The term “Uptober” refers to the traditional October outperformance of Bitcoin. Indeed, the digital asset has appreciated in 10 of the last 15 Octobers, and in consideration of its recent strength, investors within Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets<\/a> are dialing up the probability of the cryptocurrency exceeding the $100k milestone by year-end. In the middle of September, that likelihood was only 12%, but it rose to 46% and hit 40% today. Meanwhile, Prediction Markets contracts with Bitcoin year-end price thresholds of $110k, $120k and $130k are priced at $0.15, $0.12 and $0.10.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Interactive<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Oct. 5, 2026.<\/a><\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The term “Uptober” refers to the traditional October outperformance of Bitcoin<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":241882,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[410,1633,22100],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-258258","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-bitcoin","tag-cryptocurrency","tag-interactive-brokers-prediction-markets","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nOdds of Bitcoin Exceeding $100K by Year-End at 40% As We Enter 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