{"id":258240,"date":"2026-10-05T10:59:58","date_gmt":"2026-10-05T14:59:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=258240"},"modified":"2026-10-06T03:52:38","modified_gmt":"2026-10-06T07:52:38","slug":"weekly-market-recap-week-of-october-5-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-week-of-october-5-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: Week of October 5, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-the-week-in-review\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Nonfarm payrolls increased by 29k in September<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Unemployment rate rose to 4.2%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Headline\/core PCE rose 3.4%\/3.0% y\/y<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-the-week-ahead\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>FOMC minutes<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Consumer sentiment<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If the first quarter of 2026 was defined by the war in Iran, and the second quarter by strong tech and AI-related earnings, then the third quarter was defined by the Fed\u2019s decision to hike interest rates by 25bps for the first time since 2023. The rate hike, alongside federal debt concerns, elevated AI-related debt issuance, the war in Iran and Fed uncertainty, has pushed bond yields higher across the curve. Rising yields drove a bond sell-off, sending the U.S. Agg down 4% in the third quarter. Small caps were also hit and fell 7% for the quarter. Since smaller companies typically borrow floating-rate debt to fund operational growth, higher interest costs can disproportionately pressure margins. Commodities continued to surge as peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran broke down, rising 16% during the quarter on higher oil prices. Oil prices have whipsawed on headlines but remain elevated relative to the start of both the quarter and the year. While the dollar was flat in the third quarter, it is still up nearly 3% this year as geopolitical concerns push investors toward safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, U.S. and international equities were little changed during the quarter. This likely reflects the rapid rise in bond yields weighing on equities, rather than any breakdown in the global earnings narrative. Even so, both U.S. and international equities have posted double-digit gains so far this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Heading into the home stretch of 2026, we believe the story most likely to dictate markets in the fourth quarter is the upcoming midterm elections. While we expect markets to stabilize post-midterms, if this year has taught us anything, it\u2019s that the only certainty is uncertainty \u2013 reinforcing the importance of diversifying across public and private markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted October 5, 2026 \u2013&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Copyright 2026 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., October 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of October 5, 2026 or as of most recently available.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This week&#8217;s chart highlights Q3\u2019s Fed rate hike and rising yields, which drove bonds down 4% and small caps down 7%, while commodities surged.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":258241,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":["post-258240","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weekly Market Recap: Week of October 5, 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This 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