{"id":257942,"date":"2026-09-30T12:47:39","date_gmt":"2026-09-30T16:47:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=257942"},"modified":"2026-09-30T13:49:13","modified_gmt":"2026-09-30T17:49:13","slug":"some-good-data-for-quarter-end","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/some-good-data-for-quarter-end\/","title":{"rendered":"Some Good Data for Quarter-End"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 8:30 ET this morning, all eyes were glued to screens for the release of the Federal Reserve\u2019s preferred inflation measure, the Core PCE Price Index, which arrived amidst a slew of other data.&nbsp; We got a pleasant surprise when the monthly rise for August was 0.2%, below the 0.3% consensus.&nbsp; Furthermore, the yearly change was 3.0%, aided by some revisions, which was well below the 3.3% consensus estimate.&nbsp; Stocks, understandably, are reacting positively to the report; bonds, not so much.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Before focusing on market performance this morning, let\u2019s look at the rest of the numerous economic reports that were released today.&nbsp; The labor market got a positive surprise when the ADP Employment Change showed a 90,000 increase, which was above the 75,000 expectation.&nbsp; Along with the PCE figures, we also saw economic strength in the third and final estimates of Q2 GDP, Personal Consumption, the GDP Price Index, and Core PCE Price Index.&nbsp; All were expected to remain unchanged from the prior estimate, but 2Q GDP rose to 2.2% from 1.5%; Personal Consumption rose to 3.8% from 3.4%; the GDP Price Index fell to 6.1% from 6.4%; and the Core PCE Price Index rose by 3.3%, less than the prior 3.6%.&nbsp; The positive economic sentiment got a final chef\u2019s kiss at 9:45 ET when the MNI Chicago PMI soared to 58.8, well above both the 51.0 estimate and last month\u2019s 47.1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The negative portion of the 8:30 data dump came in the August reports on Personal Income, Personal Spending, and Real Personal Spending.&nbsp; Personal Income rose by only 0.2%, missing the 0.5% consensus, while July was revised down to 0.3% from 0.4%.&nbsp; That was well below the increases in both Personal Spending (an increase of 0.9%, as expected) and Real Personal Spending (0.6%, above the 0.5% consensus).&nbsp; It doesn\u2019t take much advanced math to see why consumer sentiment is depressed about concerns regarding affordability when we are collectively increasing our spending far faster than our incomes are rising.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When we synthesize all that economic data, it is relatively easy to understand why stocks moved higher.&nbsp; We have said many times that investors should be rooting for a strong economy rather than one that requires monetary accommodation.&nbsp; The debate, of course, has long since moved on from rate cuts to rate hikes, but a better-than-expected key inflation measure should reduce the need for a near-term rate increase.&nbsp; To that end, we have seen expectations for a hike fall once again.&nbsp; They slipped yesterday after New York Fed President John Williams suggested that the next hike could wait until December.&nbsp; I had always thought that a rate hike less than a week before the midterms seemed like a long shot at best, but the markets disagreed with that opinion.&nbsp; (That said, I thought that a September hike would be politically untenable until the data proved otherwise.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On Monday, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\">CME FedWatch<\/a> showed a 70% chance for an October hike.&nbsp; That fell to about 50% yesterday and 39% today.&nbsp; &nbsp;The move on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/predictionmarkets\/app\/#\/791099758\/product-details\/contracts?exchange=FORECASTX\">IBKR Prediction Markets<\/a> was nearly identical, as the chart below shows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>IBKR Prediction Markets for \u201cNumber of Fed Rate Hikes in October\u201d, 1-Month<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"945\" height=\"505\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-132.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-257943 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-132.png 945w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-132-700x374.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-132-300x160.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-132-768x410.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 945px) 100vw, 945px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 945px; aspect-ratio: 945\/505;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/predictionmarkets\/app\/#\/791099758\/product-details\/contracts?exchange=FORECASTX\"><em>IBKR Prediction Markets<\/em><\/a><em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The upward move in equities was therefore predictable.&nbsp; The combination of a strong economy and reduced expectations for rate hikes is as good a reason as any for a rally.&nbsp; Never mind that the rally is once again tech-led and otherwise mixed.&nbsp; Solid gains in technology, communications, and energy make up for the fact that every other S&amp;P 500 (SPX) sector is lower except for a slight increase in financials. NYSE advances and declines are roughly equal, and there are 36 more decliners than gainers in SPX.&nbsp;&nbsp; This fits with the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/ibkr-market-insights\/a-peaceful-facade-hides-structural-concerns\/\">patterns we described yesterday<\/a>, though with more solid gains in the key headline metrics.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bonds remain problematic though.&nbsp; A strong economy can keep inflation lingering, but the bigger issue seems to be psychological.&nbsp; It appears, quite frankly, that few bond traders want to be long into the end of the quarter.&nbsp; We often think of equity investors being driven by momentum and the desire for window dressing around reporting periods, but so are bond investors.&nbsp; They\u2019re human too, just maybe a bit more pessimistic than their stock market counterparts.&nbsp; If that is the case, we could see an oversold bounce when the calendar turns tomorrow, but that will require some assistance from Friday\u2019s employment report.&nbsp; Stay tuned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>At 8:30 ET this morning, all eyes were glued to screens for the release of the Federal Reserve\u2019s preferred inflation measure, the Core PCE Price Index, which arrived amidst a slew of other data.\u00a0 We got a pleasant surprise when the monthly rise for August was 0.2%, below the 0.3% consensus.\u00a0 Furthermore, the yearly change was 3.0%, aided by some revisions, which was well below the 3.3% consensus estimate.\u00a0 Stocks, understandably, are reacting positively to the report; bonds, not so much.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":237436,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[446,570,8604,10115,4232],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-257942","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-federal-reserve","tag-inflation","tag-personal-spending","tag-rate-hikes","tag-treasury-yields","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.5) - 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