{"id":257685,"date":"2026-09-28T12:34:07","date_gmt":"2026-09-28T16:34:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=257685"},"modified":"2026-09-28T13:30:56","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T17:30:56","slug":"the-noreasters-peak-winds-and-hurricane-polo-approaching-baja-california","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/the-noreasters-peak-winds-and-hurricane-polo-approaching-baja-california\/","title":{"rendered":"The nor&#8217;easter&#8217;s peak winds and Hurricane Polo approaching Baja California"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em>The strongest gust from the nor&#8217;easter recorded at a wind station in the ForecastEx prediction market reached 62 mph at Nantucket early Saturday.<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>Hurricane Polo is expected to arrive in Baja California Sur this evening, potentially near Category 3 strength. As of the morning of 9\/28\/2026, the ForecastEx prediction market indicates a 49% chance of a Category 3+ hurricane making landfall in Mexico in 2026.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"660\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-128-1100x660.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-257689 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-128-1100x660.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-128-700x420.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-128-300x180.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-128-768x461.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-128-1536x922.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-128.png 1600w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/660;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Image from NOAA STAR (GOES-West GeoColor, 11:40 AM EDT September 28).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The nor&#8217;easter that brought major tidal flooding to the Jersey Shore this weekend is winding down, and Hurricane Polo is about to make landfall in Baja California Sur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-the-nor-easter-s-peak-winds\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The nor&#8217;easter&#8217;s peak winds<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This weekend\u2019s nor&#8217;easter&#8217;s largest impacts were related to coastal flooding, which was some of the worst in the area since Hurricane Sandy (see <a href=\"https:\/\/theeyewall.substack.com\/p\/noreaster-winds-down-as-attention\">The Eyewall<\/a>&#8216;s Sunday evening post for a recap of the meteorology).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">ForecastEx&#8217;s measure of intensity, however, was the daily maximum wind speed contracts, which ask questions of the form &#8220;Will the maximum wind speed or wind gust in Nantucket exceed 59 mph on September 26, 2026?&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the 14 stations with ForecastEx wind contracts, the largest gust was 62 mph at Nantucket at 2:53 AM Saturday, followed by 55 mph at Atlantic City late Friday, 54 mph at Martha&#8217;s Vineyard and Islip early Saturday, and 53 mph at New London early Saturday and Boston Saturday evening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The largest payout multiples were:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Boston above 46 mph and above 50 mph on Saturday paid 6.3 times (Yes at 16\u00a2 when first quoted at 12:03 AM ET Friday).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>New York City above 44 mph on Friday paid 5.3 times (Yes at 19\u00a2 at 5:06 PM ET Thursday).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Nantucket above 59 mph on Saturday paid 4.2 times (Yes at 24\u00a2 at 12:03 AM ET Friday).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Atlantic City above 45 mph, Islip above 49 mph, New London above 47 mph, and Dover above 39 mph on Saturday each paid 2.9 times (Yes at 34\u00a2 at 12:27 PM ET Friday).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"1750\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-126.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-257687 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-126.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-126-700x1114.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-126-300x477.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-126-768x1222.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-126-965x1536.png 965w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/1750;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Shading from NOAA&#8217;s URMA analysis.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-hurricane-polo-and-mexico\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Hurricane Polo and Mexico<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the late morning on Monday, Hurricane Polo was a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds about 85 miles west-southwest of Cabo San L\u00e1zaro, Mexico, moving northeast at 10 mph. The National Hurricane Center expects the center to reach the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur this evening, cross the Gulf of California, and make a second landfall in Sonora on Tuesday morning as a weaker hurricane.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"990\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-127-1100x990.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-257688 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-127-1100x990.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-127-700x630.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-127-300x270.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-127-768x691.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-127-1536x1382.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-127.png 1600w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/990;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From the <a href=\"https:\/\/weather.weatherclimatehumansystems.org\/hurricane.html?basin=EP\">live hurricane page<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The relevant question for the ForecastEx hurricane landfall contract is whether Polo is still a major hurricane when its eye reaches the coast. The contract asks &#8220;Will there be a Major Hurricane Landfall within Mexico in 2026?&#8221; and settles on NOAA&#8217;s advisory at the time of landfall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Mexico landfall contract&#8217;s pricing fluctuated based on NHC&#8217;s forecast. It rose to <a href=\"https:\/\/weather.weatherclimatehumansystems.org\/hurricane.html\">66%<\/a> on Sunday afternoon (Yes bid 63\u00a2, No bid 31\u00a2) after NHC indicated Polo&#8217;s intensity near the coast increased to Category 3. Overnight, it reached 67%, then dropped to 32% early this morning (Yes bid 29\u00a2, No bid 65\u00a2) after the 5 AM ET forecast lowered the projected landfall intensity to about 95 knots. Later, it increased to 49% (Yes bid 46\u00a2, No bid 48\u00a2) following the 11 AM ET forecast, which kept Polo at 100 knots until landfall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"751\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-125-1100x751.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-257686 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-125-1100x751.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-125-700x478.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-125-300x205.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-125-768x524.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-125.png 1200w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/751;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Figure produced by Patrick Brown with Matplotlib from ForecastEx prices and National Hurricane Center forecasts.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Category 2 landfall would leave the contract open for the rest of the season. Tropical Storm Rachel, about 230 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and reach 100 mph by Thursday with a possible path on shore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-further-reading\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Further Reading<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Prediction markets can <a href=\"https:\/\/weather.weatherclimatehumansystems.org\/accuracy.html\">improve forecast accuracy<\/a> even for physical quantities well-represented by established mechanistic models.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/ibkr-climate-energy\/live-hurricane-wind-gust-prediction-markets-at-forecastex\/\">Live Hurricane Wind Gust Prediction Markets at ForecastEx<\/a> \u2014 how the per-location wind gust contracts list, trade, and settle.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/esg\/hurricane-forecast-contracts\/\">Hurricane Forecast Contracts<\/a> \u2014 how the count and landfall contracts work.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/ibkr-climate-energy\/disaster-insurance-applications-of-forecast-contracts\/\">Disaster Insurance Applications of Forecast Contracts<\/a> \u2014 using landfall contracts as parametric cover.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/hurricane-forecast-contracts-as-a-diversifying-asset-in-an-investment-portfolio\/\">Hurricane Forecast Contracts as a Diversifying Asset in an Investment Portfolio<\/a> \u2014 correlation properties against conventional assets.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/bundling-no-hurricane-landfall-forecast-contracts-to-reduce-downside-risk\/\">Bundling &#8220;NO&#8221; Hurricane Landfall Forecast Contracts to Reduce Downside Risk<\/a> \u2014 constructing a bundle across locations.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The strongest gust from the nor&#8217;easter recorded at a wind station in the ForecastEx prediction market reached 62 mph at Nantucket early Saturday.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1601,"featured_media":257690,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18931,18929,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[],"class_list":["post-257685","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-climate-energy","category-prediction-market","category-traders-insight"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The nor&#8217;easter&#8217;s peak winds and Hurricane Polo approaching Baja California<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The strongest gust from the nor&#039;easter recorded at a wind station in the ForecastEx prediction market reached 62 mph at Nantucket early Saturday.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/257685\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The nor&#039;easter&#039;s peak winds and Hurricane Polo approaching Baja California | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The strongest gust from the nor&#039;easter recorded at a wind station in the ForecastEx prediction market reached 62 mph at Nantucket early Saturday.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/the-noreasters-peak-winds-and-hurricane-polo-approaching-baja-california\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-09-28T16:34:07+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-09-28T17:30:56+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-28-123159.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"936\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Patrick Brown\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Patrick Brown\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"NewsArticle\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/the-noreasters-peak-winds-and-hurricane-polo-approaching-baja-california\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/the-noreasters-peak-winds-and-hurricane-polo-approaching-baja-california\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"Patrick Brown\",\n\t                \"@id\": 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