{"id":257364,"date":"2026-09-24T13:28:15","date_gmt":"2026-09-24T17:28:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=257364"},"modified":"2026-09-24T13:55:07","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T17:55:07","slug":"consider-umich-sentiment-46-yes-at-0-53-because-initial-was-47-6-and-the-revision-usually-ranges-from-1-to-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/consider-umich-sentiment-46-yes-at-0-53-because-initial-was-47-6-and-the-revision-usually-ranges-from-1-to-1\/","title":{"rendered":"Consider UMich Sentiment 46 Yes at $0.53 Because Initial Was 47.6 and the Revision Usually Ranges From + 1 To – 1: Sept. 24, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

I believe investors in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets should assess the \u201cYes\u201d contract with a 46 threshold for the University of Michigan Sentiment Index. The contract<\/a> is priced at $0.53. The initial sentiment report, released 13 days ago, was at 47.6. Meanwhile, revisions have historically ranged between + 1 and \u2013 1, and a significant downward adjustment of 1.6 is needed for the \u201cYes\u201d contract to lose. Elsewhere, the \u201cYeses\u201d corresponding to the 44, 48, 50 and 52 thresholds for tomorrow\u2019s print are going for $0.93, $0.27, $0.15 and $0.03. Finally, we\u2019re nearing record lows on this indicator, with May\u2019s figure coming in at the worst ever level of 44.8, as pain at the pump, elevated interest rates, affordability pressures and geopolitical uncertainty have negatively affected household moods for most of the year.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Sept. 24, 2026.<\/a><\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I believe investors in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets should assess the \u201cYes\u201d contract with a 46 threshold for the University of Michigan Sentiment Index. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":193491,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[1576,570],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-257364","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-consumer-sentiment","tag-inflation","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nConsider UMich Sentiment 46 Yes at $0.53 Because Initial Was 47.6 and the Revision Usually Ranges From + 1 To – 1: Sept. 24, 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"I believe investors in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets should assess the \u201cYes\u201d contract with a 46 threshold for the University of...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/257364\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Consider UMich Sentiment 46 Yes at $0.53 Because Initial Was 47.6 and the Revision Usually Ranges From + 1 To - 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His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/jose-torres\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/consumer-sentiment-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/257364","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/903"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=257364"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/257364\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":257396,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/257364\/revisions\/257396"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/193491"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=257364"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=257364"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=257364"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=257364"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}