{"id":257188,"date":"2026-09-23T13:59:55","date_gmt":"2026-09-23T17:59:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=257188"},"modified":"2026-09-23T15:21:29","modified_gmt":"2026-09-23T19:21:29","slug":"new-home-sales-600k-no-going-for-just-0-20","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/new-home-sales-600k-no-going-for-just-0-20\/","title":{"rendered":"New Home Sales 600K \u201cNo\u201d Going For Just $0.20: Sept. 23, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

New home sales last month are expected to have recovered from July\u2019s 607k, as the \u201cNo\u201d Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets contract with a 600k threshold is being offered for just $0.20. The report, to be released tomorrow morning, has a consensus expectation of 615k from a Reuters poll of 43 economists who have provided minimum and maximum estimates of 575k and 666k. But recent real estate indicators depict a great deal of weakness, as elevated mortgage rates alongside lofty valuations generate a significant affordability problem. And due to the softening trends, I believe a number under the 600k threshold is in the cards. It would be the weakest figure since January\u2019s 576k. Furthermore, the \u201cNo\u201d at 600k<\/a> is undervalued, in my view, as it should be closer to $0.40. Meanwhile, the \u201cNo\u201d at 650k is going for $0.82. Separately, the median sales price is projected to be around $400k, as the \u201cYeses\u201d<\/a> at $390k, $400k and $410k are at $0.83, $0.51 and $0.30 for that distinct Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets contract.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Initial Unemployment Claims Expected Around 200K<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Initial unemployment claims are expected to remain suppressed as layoff appetites are low and economic growth is buoyant, warranting headcount increases rather than declines.\u00a0After 196k last week, the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets are pricing in the at least \u201cYeses\u201d<\/a> at 190k, 195k, 200k, 205k and 210k at $0.89, $0.58, $0.50, $0.16 and $0.03. Similarly, the Reuters poll of 36 forecasters stands at a median of 201k, amidst minimum and maximum projections of 185k and 250k. Indeed, someone is anticipating a substantial increase to a level we haven\u2019t touched in over a year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Sept. 23, 2026.<\/a><\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

New home sales last month are expected to have recovered from July\u2019s 607k, as the \u201cNo\u201d Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets contract with a 600k threshold is being offered for just 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