{"id":256582,"date":"2026-09-17T13:16:04","date_gmt":"2026-09-17T17:16:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=256582"},"modified":"2026-09-17T13:35:09","modified_gmt":"2026-09-17T17:35:09","slug":"consider-the-0-63-1-yes-on-industrial-production-as-consensus-is-1-7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/consider-the-0-63-1-yes-on-industrial-production-as-consensus-is-1-7\/","title":{"rendered":"Consider the $0.63 1% \u201cYes\u201d on Industrial Production as Consensus Is 1.7% : Sept. 17, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The consensus expectation projects that industrial production will expand 1.7% year over year in tomorrow\u2019s August update; however, the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets prices the 1% \u201cYes\u201d at only $0.63. The threshold is significantly undervalued, in my opinion, as the path to a number at or below 1% is exceptionally narrow. Indeed, in a Reuters poll of 47 forecasters, the minimum and maximum estimates are 1.4% and 2.2%, as none of the economists entered a figure of 1.3% or under, indicating that the participants generally agree with the subdued likelihood of the 1% \u201cYes\u201d losing money. Elsewhere, the \u201cYeses\u201d at 0% and at 2% are going for $0.95 and $0.07.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"414\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-71-1100x414.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-256584 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-71-1100x414.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-71-700x263.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-71-300x113.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-71-768x289.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-71.png 1353w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/414;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><strong><em><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of <a>Sept. 17, 2026.<\/a><\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em><strong>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The consensus expectation projects that industrial production will expand 1.7% year over year in tomorrow\u2019s August update; however, the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets prices the 1% \u201cYes\u201d at only $0.63. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":181760,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[720,22100],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-256582","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-industrial-production","tag-interactive-brokers-prediction-markets","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 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