{"id":256476,"date":"2026-09-16T13:04:24","date_gmt":"2026-09-16T17:04:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=256476"},"modified":"2026-09-16T13:43:40","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T17:43:40","slug":"construction-contracts-expiring-tomorrow-permits-1-4m-yes-going-for-0-51","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/construction-contracts-expiring-tomorrow-permits-1-4m-yes-going-for-0-51\/","title":{"rendered":"Construction Contracts Expiring Tomorrow, Permits 1.4M \u201cYes\u201d Going for $0.51: Sept. 16, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Tomorrow\u2019s New Residential Construction Report from the US Census Bureau features building permits and housing starts, and the coin-flip, 50-50 pricing in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets is generally near the central expectations of the monthly Reuters polls. For August permits, the \u201cYes\u201d contracts<\/a> with thresholds of 1.3 million, 1.4 million and 1.5 million seasonally adjusted annualized units (SAAU) are priced at $0.92, $0.51 and $0.10, as participants anticipate a decline from 1.443 million. Similarly, the 33 forecasters in the survey are at a median of 1.41 million, against the backdrop of minimum and maximum estimates of 1.35 million and 1.43 million, which is emblematic of this indicator\u2019s elevated historical deviation rate, or its high relative potential to arrive well off the consensus\u2019s range.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Interactive<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Starts Are Expected To Recover From Bumpy Rise<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Housing starts are expected to recover from July\u2019s 1.239 million SAAU, as the \u201cYeses\u201d<\/a> at 1.2 million, 1.3 million and 1.4 million are going for $0.89, $0.56 and $0.11 in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets for tomorrow\u2019s release of the August number. Similarly, the 43 forecasters in the monthly Reuters poll are at a median of 1.309 million, but the minimum and maximum estimates have a wide range of values of 1.2 million and 1.4 million. The vast range of potential outcomes illustrates the bumpy ride this particular indicator has experienced in recent months as it\u2019s been much harder to predict on a relative basis.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Interactive<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Sept. 16, 2026.<\/a><\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tomorrow\u2019s New Residential Construction Report from the US Census Bureau features building permits and housing starts, and the coin-flip, 50-50 pricing in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets is generally near the central expectations of the monthly Reuters polls. 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His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/jose-torres\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/12\/summer-construction-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/256476","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/903"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=256476"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/256476\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":256510,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/256476\/revisions\/256510"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/216611"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=256476"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=256476"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=256476"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=256476"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}