{"id":256396,"date":"2026-09-16T12:29:40","date_gmt":"2026-09-16T16:29:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=256396"},"modified":"2026-09-22T12:06:51","modified_gmt":"2026-09-22T16:06:51","slug":"the-fed-decision-isnt-the-only-story","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/the-fed-decision-isnt-the-only-story\/","title":{"rendered":"The Fed Decision Isn&#8217;t the Only Story"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scott Bauer joins Jeff Praissman to break down the market forces extending beyond the Fed\u2019s latest rate decision. They discuss interest rates, oil prices, inflation, AI concerns, economic data, and what investors may be watching for in the Fed\u2019s outlook for the months ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"The Fed Decision Isn't the Only Story\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=qfryh-1b5f0d7-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=ffffff&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>New to Interactive Brokers?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/ndcdyn.interactivebrokers.com\/mkt\/?src=pod427JPAcc&amp;url=%2FUniversal%2FApplication&amp;utm_ibsource=pod427JPAcc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Open Account<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-427\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 427<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-nbsp\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hi, everyone. This is Jeff Praissman with Interactive Brokers, and&nbsp;it&#8217;s&nbsp;my pleasure to welcome back to our podcast studio Scott Bauer from Prosper Trading Academy. Hey, Scott. How are you?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-nbsp\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jeff, I am great. How are you?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-nbsp-0\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I&#8217;m good. And for our listeners, Scott is a frequent guest at the IBKR Podcast Studio. He&nbsp;comes in usually&nbsp;every other Wednesday,&nbsp;talk&nbsp;about the market.&nbsp;You can find more from Scott on our website under education and also on prospertrading.com as well.&nbsp;But,&nbsp;let&#8217;s&nbsp;kick this off, Scott,&nbsp;&#8217;cause&nbsp;we got&#8230;&nbsp;It&#8217;s&nbsp;a Wednesday morning and, you know..<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-nbsp-0\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Think&nbsp;there&#8217;s&nbsp;anything going on?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-nbsp-1\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I heard something at 2:00 might be going on. I&nbsp;don&#8217;t&nbsp;know.&nbsp;Maybe something. I&nbsp;don&#8217;t&nbsp;know.&nbsp;Maybe some&nbsp;soap operas, Price Is Right. I&nbsp;don&#8217;t&nbsp;know. But&nbsp;yeah, so obviously the Fed decision&#8217;s a big item that, full&nbsp;disclosure,&nbsp;this is being recorded before&nbsp;that&#8217;s&nbsp;been announced, so.&nbsp;We&#8217;re&nbsp;just&nbsp;gonna&nbsp;kind of discuss, start off with last week. Oil prices surged again, while Treasury yields climbed and these major stock indexes also, they finished lower.&nbsp;So&nbsp;Scott, was this primarily like an energy-driven sell-off, or are investors just fundamentally&nbsp;reassessing&nbsp;the outlook for inflation and interest rates at this point?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-nbsp-1\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yeah, I think&nbsp;it&#8217;s&nbsp;a little bit of a combination between energy and interest rates. If I had to give it a percentage,&nbsp;I&#8217;d&nbsp;probably say&nbsp;70% interest rates, 30% energy. But when you look at the correlation between oil prices and the equities and\/or interest rates and the equities, very tight correlation these days, right?&nbsp;So, I would say that those two things are absolutely driving the equity markets here. Now,&nbsp;let&#8217;s&nbsp;just play this out. If,&nbsp;let&#8217;s&nbsp;say we were to get a resolution in the Mideast with Iran and oil prices drop. Does that mean&nbsp;immediately&nbsp;we&#8217;d&nbsp;see the market react positively and higher?&nbsp;Probably, but in my opinion, not as much as if, let&#8217;s say the Fed comes&nbsp;out&nbsp;and they say, &#8220;We&#8217;re not raising rates, and we see inflation, it&#8217;s going down,&#8221; blah, blah, blah, blah. That to me would have more of an impact on the markets.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-nbsp-2\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Even with that sell-off, stocks did rebound on Friday a little bit,&nbsp;after those&nbsp;several consecutive declines.&nbsp;Kind of short recovery signal, was that renewed confidence or was it just investors kind of repositioning ahead of this week&#8217;s Fed, you know, meeting, today&#8217;s Fed meeting actually?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-nbsp-2\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It was a little repositioning, but you&nbsp;gotta&nbsp;remember last weekend after that recovery on Friday, all that news came out about AI, right? That was after the market closed on Friday. Had we not gotten that news, my guess is the markets&nbsp;probably would&#8217;ve&nbsp;just held those gains. Maybe not gained more than that.&nbsp;So we talked about rates, we talked about inflation, we talked about energy, but now the AI story is there again, kind of putting that risk-off mode back into the markets a little bit.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-nbsp-3\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Circling back to obviously today&#8217;s decision announcement. Like, prediction markets have it at like over 90% that&nbsp;it&#8217;s&nbsp;gonna&nbsp;go up. I mean, again, we&nbsp;don&#8217;t&nbsp;know. But, besides the decision itself,&nbsp;&#8217;cause&nbsp;that is what it is, but after the decision, what should investors listen for in the statement?&nbsp;Like, are there,&nbsp;They&nbsp;should look for economic projections, you know,&nbsp;and also&nbsp;like the press conference, right?&nbsp;There&#8217;s&nbsp;so much like data upon data&nbsp;and like&nbsp;maybe&nbsp;kind&nbsp;of hidden&nbsp;nuances.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oh,&nbsp;yeah.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-nbsp-4\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">..For investors to really kind of listen to besides for just the number.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-nbsp-3\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Well, I think the algos and the HFTs are&nbsp;gonna&nbsp;know what to listen for, specific words, specific inflection from Warsh. Yeah, we&#8217;re&nbsp;gonna&nbsp;get a raise today most likely, but more importantly is what he says about October, December, going into next year, because all of a sudden now, the possibility or probability of an October hike in addition to today is upwards of about 45%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So&nbsp;it is definitely going to be what he says. And,&nbsp;also&nbsp;I think what&#8217;s&nbsp;gonna&nbsp;be&nbsp;very important&nbsp;is how is the entire committee&nbsp;gonna&nbsp;vote on this? If&nbsp;it&#8217;s&nbsp;a unanimous vote and&nbsp;you&#8217;ve&nbsp;got some of the FOMC members from last time that were not in favor of a hike, if&nbsp;they&#8217;re&nbsp;now in favor, that could lean this a little bit more hawkish.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-nbsp-5\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Besides today, which is obviously big news, but there&#8217;s always data, right? We always&#8211; You and I always talk about this. I mean, Thursday we have housing starts, building permits, jobless claims, and regional manufacturing jobs. So how could these&nbsp;reports, could they&nbsp;reinforce this economic resilience, or could they&nbsp;sort of begin&nbsp;to reveal more visible pressures from potentially higher borrowing costs?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-nbsp-4\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sure, and&nbsp;that&#8217;s should be&nbsp;reflected in some of the housing data, I would think. Even though the housing data is old, right?&nbsp;It&#8217;s&nbsp;in the&nbsp;rear view&nbsp;mirror.&nbsp;That&#8217;s&nbsp;still as rates were moving higher. I just saw this morning that 30-year rates are now&nbsp;back&nbsp;over 7%.&nbsp;That&#8217;s&nbsp;not&nbsp;gonna&nbsp;be reflected in tomorrow&#8217;s&nbsp;data, but&nbsp;certainly moving forward.&nbsp;So&nbsp;I think&nbsp;we&#8217;re&nbsp;gonna&nbsp;see some weak housing numbers, which could&nbsp;impact&nbsp;the market negatively. But&nbsp;it&#8217;s&nbsp;a matter at this point is how much is the market already pricing in&nbsp;maybe some&nbsp;of this weak economic data?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-nbsp-6\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scott, this has been great as always.&nbsp;Appreciate&nbsp;you coming by. And again, for our listeners, you can find more from Scott on our website, interactivebrokers.com under Education, Podcasts, Webinars, Articles, as well as prospertrading.com. Until next time, Scott.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-nbsp-5\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jeff, really appreciate it. Have a good&nbsp;one.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-nbsp-7\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">All right.&nbsp;Sounds&nbsp;good.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Scott Bauer joins Jeff Praissman to break down the market forces extending beyond the Fed\u2019s latest rate decision. They discuss interest rates, oil prices, inflation, AI concerns, economic data, and what investors may be watching for in the Fed\u2019s outlook for the months ahead.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":914,"featured_media":256454,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[10842,13857],"tags":[14545,3221,22156,12547,446,6988,314,3611,15769,570,2099,850,789,17708,757,3598,10995,1504,4231,19392,11020,18379,4109,4232,4838],"contributors-categories":[13576,16315],"class_list":["post-256396","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-podcasts","category-podcasts","tag-ai-stocks","tag-economic-data","tag-fed-decision","tag-fed-outlook","tag-federal-reserve","tag-financial-markets","tag-fomc","tag-housing-data","tag-ibkr-podcasts","tag-inflation","tag-interactive-brokers","tag-interest-rates","tag-investing","tag-jeff-praissman","tag-jobless-claims","tag-market-outlook","tag-market-volatility","tag-monetary-policy","tag-oil-prices","tag-prosper-trading-academy","tag-rate-hike","tag-scott-bauer","tag-stock-market","tag-treasury-yields","tag-wall-street","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers","contributors-categories-prosper-trading-academy"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Fed Decision Isn&#8217;t the Only Story | IBKR Podcasts<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/256396\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Fed Decision Isn&#039;t the Only Story | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Scott Bauer joins Jeff Praissman to break down the market forces extending beyond the Fed\u2019s latest rate decision. 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