{"id":255994,"date":"2026-09-11T10:44:07","date_gmt":"2026-09-11T14:44:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=255994"},"modified":"2026-09-11T12:03:02","modified_gmt":"2026-09-11T16:03:02","slug":"inflation-rate-holds-at-3-4-in-august-bolsters-rate-hike-wagers-updated","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/inflation-rate-holds-at-3-4-in-august-bolsters-rate-hike-wagers-updated\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation Rate Holds at 3.4% in August, Bolsters Rate Hike Wagers (UPDATED)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n


Editor\u2019s note:<\/strong> This article was updated to add more detail and context.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. annual inflation held at 3.4% in August, matching the market consensus and remaining unchanged from July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the month, prices rose 0.4% as expected, after a 0.1% increase in July, with gasoline up 3.9% and accounting for over a third of the monthly increase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, eased to 2.4% year-over-year from 2.5% and matched estimates. Yet, the monthly reading came in at 0.3% against the 0.2% expected, accelerating from July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The print lands with fed funds futures pricing roughly a 69% chance of a rate hike at next week\u2019s FOMC meeting, after Brent crude\u2019s surge above $105 and a 30-year Treasury yield at 2007 levels pushed markets to increase hike bets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Where Prices Rose and Fell in August<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Gasoline was the single biggest driver, jumping 3.9% and accounting for more than a third of the entire monthly increase. Fuel oil surged 10.1% on the month and is now up 52.0% over the past year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The broader energy index rose 2.1% in August and 16.3% over 12 months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Travel was the other pressure point. Airline fares climbed 2.7% on the month and are up 23.4% year-over-year, the largest annual increase of any major category outside energy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lodging away from home rose 2.4% after falling 2.8% in July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shelter, the largest single component of the index, reaccelerated to 0.3% from 0.1%, though the underlying rent measures were tamer, with both owners\u2019 equivalent rent and rent up 0.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Communication jumped 2.3% after a 0.6% rise in July, education gained 0.8%, and vehicles firmed on both ends, with used cars and trucks up 0.4% and new vehicles up 0.3%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the grocery store, eggs rose 2.9% and dairy gained 0.3%, though the overall food-at-home index was flat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Medical care declined 0.2% in August after rising 0.4% in July, with dental services down 0.6% and hospital services, physicians\u2019 services and prescription drugs all unchanged. Medical care commodities are down 2.7% over the past year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Motor vehicle insurance fell 0.8% after a 0.3% decline in July, extending a cooling trend in one of the categories that tormented households through the post-pandemic inflation surge. Utility gas service dropped 1.1% and electricity slipped 0.2%, meaning the energy spike was confined almost entirely to the pump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fruits and vegetables fell 0.4% for a third straight monthly decline, led by lettuce, which dropped another 6.2% after plunging 16.4% in July. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

August CPI: Biggest Monthly Movers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Category<\/th>MoM<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Fuel oil<\/td>+10.1%<\/td><\/tr>
Gasoline<\/td>+3.9%<\/td><\/tr>
Airline fares<\/td>+2.7%<\/td><\/tr>
Lodging away from home<\/td>+2.4%<\/td><\/tr>
Communication<\/td>+2.3%<\/td><\/tr>
Shelter<\/td>+0.3%<\/td><\/tr>
Electricity<\/td>-0.2%<\/td><\/tr>
Medical care<\/td>-0.2%<\/td><\/tr>
Fruits and vegetables<\/td>-0.4%<\/td><\/tr>
Motor vehicle insurance<\/td>-0.8%<\/td><\/tr>
Utility (piped) gas service<\/td>-1.1%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed Hike Odds Climb to 79%<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Prediction market Polymarket now prices a 79% chance the Federal Reserve raises rates at next week\u2019s meeting, up from roughly 70% before the release.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That would be the first hike of the cycle under new Chair Kevin Warsh, and it would come against a backdrop of Brent crude above $105 a barrel and a 30-year Treasury yield sitting at levels last seen in 2007.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets Shook Off the Hawkish Knee-Jerk<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Twenty minutes after the release, the S&P 500 was up 0.2% at 7,661.72, the Nasdaq 100 had gained 0.2% to 29,376.08 and the Dow was 0.2% higher at 52,552.49.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Russell 2000 was the lone holdout at 2,916.90, down less than 0.1%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 2-year yield kept bleeding lower, slipping to 4.592%, below where it traded before the data and more than 5 basis points off its post-print high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold extended its reversal to a 0.8% gain at $4,364.70, and Bitcoin<\/strong> (CRYPTO: BTC)<\/a> rallied 1.3% to $77,952.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. Dollar Index erased gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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