{"id":255914,"date":"2026-09-10T13:25:33","date_gmt":"2026-09-10T17:25:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=255914"},"modified":"2026-09-10T13:54:46","modified_gmt":"2026-09-10T17:54:46","slug":"only-a-20-chance-of-a-hotter-than-expected-cpi-tomorrow-morning","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/only-a-20-chance-of-a-hotter-than-expected-cpi-tomorrow-morning\/","title":{"rendered":"Only a 20% Chance of A Hotter-Than-Expected CPI Tomorrow Morning: Sept. 10, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tomorrow morning\u2019s pivotal Consumer Price Index (CPI) release is expected to come in at an unchanged 3.4% year over year (y\/y) rate, and participants in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets are signaling just a 20% chance of a hotter-than-anticipated reading. Indeed, the \u201cYes\u201d contract with a 3.4% threshold is going for $0.20, but I think it\u2019s undervalued, and I believe the cost should be closer to $0.40. The distribution of economist expectations agrees as well, as the Reuters poll of 53 forecasters carries an upside bias, with the median estimate at 3.4% amidst minimum and maximum projections at 3.3% and 3.8%, indicating a belief of loftier print being more likely than a lower result. Over and under, however, the \u201cYeses\u201d at 3.2%, 3.3%, and 3.5% are at $0.90, $0.63, and $0.07.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"991\" height=\"376\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-42.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-255938 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-42.png 991w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-42-700x266.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-42-300x114.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-42-768x291.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 991px) 100vw, 991px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 991px; aspect-ratio: 991\/376;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-consider-the-0-2-yes-on-the-core-cpi\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Consider the 0.2% \u201cYes\u201d on the Core CPI<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The core CPI, which excludes food and energy due to their volatile characteristics, is expected to be 0.2% month over month tomorrow, yet participants in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market are pricing the \u201cYes\u201d contract at that threshold at only $0.25. Similar to the example above, I think it should be closer to $0.40, as the Reuters poll of 67 forecasters sees a path to 0.3%. Indeed, the minimum and maximum estimates are 0.1% and 0.3% and those \u201cYeses\u201d are going for $0.87 and $0.03. The y\/y version of the indicator offers a comparable opportunity, as the \u201cYes\u201d at the consensus expectation of 2.4% is priced at only $0.19, while the 2.2% and 2.6% thresholds are at $0.93 and $0.06.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1068\" height=\"405\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-40.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-255937 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-40.png 1068w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-40-700x265.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-40-300x114.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-40-768x291.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1068px) 100vw, 1068px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1068px; aspect-ratio: 1068\/405;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1064\" height=\"401\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-39.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-255935 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-39.png 1064w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-39-700x264.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-39-300x113.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-39-768x289.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1064px) 100vw, 1064px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1064px; aspect-ratio: 1064\/401;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-umich-sentiment-expected-to-retreat-slightly\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>UMich Sentiment Expected To Retreat Slightly<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tomorrow\u2019s University of Michigan (UMich) Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to reflect a slight decline this month, because elevated inflation, rising interest rates and stock market volatility likely weighed on household moods. The Reuters poll consisting of 34 forecasters collectively predicts a drop from 51.7 to 51, amidst minimum and maximum expectations of 49 and 52.5. The Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets contracts, which settle on the release of the final numbers on Sept. 25 and not tomorrow, offer the 44, 46, 48 and 50 \u201cYeses\u201d at $0.92, $0.72, $0.59 and $0.47. I find the $0.59 contract attractive as I believe that a plunge to that level from an already low August reading is unlikely, and so does the consensus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1013\" height=\"382\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-41.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-255936 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-41.png 1013w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-41-700x264.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-41-300x113.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-41-768x290.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1013px) 100vw, 1013px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1013px; aspect-ratio: 1013\/382;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><strong><em><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of <a>September 10, 2026.<\/a><\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em><strong>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tomorrow morning\u2019s pivotal Consumer Price Index (CPI) release is expected to come in at an unchanged 3.4% year over year (y\/y) rate, and participants in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets are signaling just a 20% chance of a hotter-than-anticipated reading.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":182145,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[2180,570],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-255914","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-consumer-price-index","tag-inflation","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium 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His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/author\\\/jose-torres\\\/\"\n\t        }\n\t    ]\n\t}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Only a 20% Chance of A Hotter-Than-Expected CPI Tomorrow Morning: Sept. 10, 2026","description":"Tomorrow morning\u2019s pivotal Consumer Price Index (CPI) release is expected to come in at an unchanged 3.4% year over year (y\/y) rate, and 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