{"id":255576,"date":"2026-09-04T10:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-09-04T14:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=255576"},"modified":"2026-09-04T10:48:22","modified_gmt":"2026-09-04T14:48:22","slug":"bitcoin-at-a-turning-point-is-the-crypto-bear-market-finally-over","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/bitcoin-at-a-turning-point-is-the-crypto-bear-market-finally-over\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin at a Turning Point: Is the Crypto Bear Market Finally Over?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

After months of weakness, Bitcoin is once again showing signs of life.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is not the first time our models have pointed to a potentially bullish phase for Bitcoin. In September 2025, in a previous article published on IBKR Campus<\/a>, I highlighted how seasonality and historical analogues were suggesting a favorable setup for Bitcoin heading into the final quarter of the year. The market subsequently moved higher, and today a different set of indicators is once again sending an interesting message.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The cryptocurrency recently staged a sharp rebound, moving from the $60,000 area toward $80,000 in a relatively short period of time. A move of more than 20% naturally raises an important question for investors:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Is Bitcoin\u2019s bear market finally over, or are we simply looking at another temporary rebound within a larger downtrend?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

No single indicator can answer that question with certainty. However, when different analytical approaches start pointing in the same direction, the signal becomes more interesting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the moment, three elements deserve particular attention: the positioning of speculative traders, a major technical breakout, and Bitcoin\u2019s apparent two-year market cycle.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Speculative Traders Started Buying During the Decline<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

One of the most interesting signals emerged from the Cot Report ( Commitments of Traders )<\/a> while Bitcoin was still falling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking at futures positioning, we can observe the net exposure of non-commercial traders on Bitcoin<\/strong><\/a>, a category generally associated with speculative market participants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What makes the recent data particularly interesting is the divergence between price and positioning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While Bitcoin continued to decline, non-commercial traders progressively increased their net exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other words, while prices were moving lower, a significant group of speculative market participants was moving in the opposite direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This kind of divergence can be worth monitoring because large market participants often need time to build meaningful positions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unlike a small investor, an institutional participant cannot necessarily establish a large position with a single transaction. Accumulation may take place progressively over several weeks or months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This does not automatically mean that a bottom has been reached. But when positioning begins to improve during a prolonged decline, it can indicate that some investors are already looking beyond the current weakness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And that appears to have happened with Bitcoin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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<\/a>Bitcoin Has Broken an Important Downtrend<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positioning alone would not be enough to build a bullish scenario.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The second piece of the puzzle comes directly from price action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bitcoin recently broke above a descending trendline that had contained prices for approximately 11 months<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The duration of the trendline matters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A breakout from a short-term trendline may simply represent a temporary change in momentum. A breakout from a structure that has dominated the market for almost one year potentially carries more significance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From a cyclical perspective, the length of the trend that has been broken may also provide information about the market cycle that is changing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this case, the breakout may suggest that Bitcoin is not simply experiencing a short-term bounce, but could instead be entering a different phase of its broader cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, a breakout is never a guarantee.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

False breakouts happen frequently, especially in volatile markets such as cryptocurrencies. For this reason, it is useful to look for confirmation from independent indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And this is where Bitcoin\u2019s historical cycle becomes particularly interesting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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<\/a>Is Bitcoin Following a Two-Year Cycle?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

If we examine Bitcoin\u2019s major lows over recent years, a surprisingly regular pattern emerges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest significant low occurred around the July-August period of 2026<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Going back approximately two years takes us to the summer of 2024<\/strong>, where another important market low can be identified.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Going back another two years takes us to July-August 2022<\/strong>, where Bitcoin was once again trading around a major cyclical low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This creates a sequence worth monitoring:<\/p>\n\n\n\n