{"id":255401,"date":"2026-09-03T12:15:00","date_gmt":"2026-09-03T16:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=255401"},"modified":"2026-09-03T12:37:12","modified_gmt":"2026-09-03T16:37:12","slug":"a-major-hurricane-landfall-in-hawaii","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/a-major-hurricane-landfall-in-hawaii\/","title":{"rendered":"A Major Hurricane Landfall in Hawaii?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Prediction market ForecastEx weighs in on Hawaii\u2019s Small but Nontrivial Risk of a Major Hurricane Landfall from Hurricane Lowell.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hurricane Lowell is a Category 4 hurricane (145 mph) moving at about 10 mph, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/text\/refresh\/HFOTCPCP4+shtml\/030857.shtml?\">about 450 miles south of Hilo, Hawaii<\/a> &#8211; one of three tropical storms in the Eastern Pacific right now.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The ForecastEx prediction market has a contract asking: <a href=\"https:\/\/weather.weatherclimatehumansystems.org\/hurricane.html\"><em>Will a major (Category 3+)<\/em> <em>hurricane<\/em> <em>make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?<\/em><\/a> (To count as landfall, the eye must intersect land; close bypasses do not count.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the historical record from 1949 to 2025, such an event has happened only once, with <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Hurricane_Iniki\">Hurricane Iniki in 1992<\/a>. If we take that frequency as the climatological probability, it&#8217;s a 1.3% annual chance. With the emergence of Hurricane Lowell, however, ForecastEx has a chance of four to five times that &#8211; closer to 5%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"539\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-9-1100x539.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-255402 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-9-1100x539.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-9-700x343.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-9-300x147.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-9-768x376.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-9-1536x753.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-9.png 1600w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/539;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-the-sharp-right-turn\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The sharp right turn<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Lowell is currently being held on a westward heading by a ridge to its north, but that ridge is forecast to break up this weekend. At that point, Hurricane Karina to the north could essentially pull Lowell north, steering it over Hawaii.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"768\" height=\"736\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/12E_gefs_latest.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-255412 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/12E_gefs_latest.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/12E_gefs_latest-700x671.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/12E_gefs_latest-300x288.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 768px; aspect-ratio: 768\/736;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Image from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tropicaltidbits.com\/storminfo\/#12E\">Tropical Tidbits<\/a>. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What typically protects Hawaii from major hurricanes is cooler sea surface temperatures. These temperatures are warming over the long run due to enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations, but they are also slightly elevated in the region due to the emerging super El Ni\u00f1o. Still, sea surface temperatures around Hawaii are not warm enough to support major hurricanes for long. Thus, the key dynamic is the abrupt right turn and acceleration of forward motion that would allow Lowell to reach Hawaii before it has time to weaken substantially over the cooler waters.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This same situation is almost exactly what allowed Hurricane Iniki to make landfall as a major Hurricane in 1992.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"855\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-10-1100x855.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-255404 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-10-1100x855.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-10-700x544.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-10-300x233.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-10-768x597.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-10-1536x1194.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/image-10.png 1600w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/855;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It will be very interesting to watch the <a href=\"https:\/\/weather.weatherclimatehumansystems.org\/hurricane.html\">ForecastEx prediction market on a major hurricane landfall in Hawaii<\/a>, both for its information value and the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/ibkr-climate-energy\/disaster-insurance-applications-of-forecast-contracts\/\">risk-hedging applications<\/a> of these contracts.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Extensive supporting information for all weather, climate, and energy markets at ForecastEx is available <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/weather.weatherclimatehumansystems.org\/index.html\"><em>here<\/em><\/a><em>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prediction market ForecastEx weighs in on Hawaii\u2019s Small but Nontrivial Risk of a Major Hurricane Landfall from Hurricane Lowell.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1601,"featured_media":255405,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18931,18929,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-255401","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-climate-energy","category-prediction-market","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A Major Hurricane Landfall in Hawaii? | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Prediction market ForecastEx weighs in on 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