{"id":255347,"date":"2026-09-02T16:00:38","date_gmt":"2026-09-02T20:00:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=255347"},"modified":"2026-09-02T16:01:31","modified_gmt":"2026-09-02T20:01:31","slug":"what-does-the-fed-need-to-see-next","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/what-does-the-fed-need-to-see-next\/","title":{"rendered":"What Does the Fed Need to See Next?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jeff Praissman and Scott Bauer discuss mixed signals from economic growth, inflation, and the labor market as investors weigh the Fed\u2019s next move. They also look at shifting sector leadership, market sentiment, and what upcoming earnings could reveal about the outlook for stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"What Does the Fed Need to See Next?\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=c9vbe-1b4dd73-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=ffffff&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-421\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 421<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hey everyone, this is Jeff Praissman with Interactive Brokers.\u00a0It&#8217;s\u00a0my pleasure to welcome back to the IBKR Podcast Studio, Scott Bauer from Prosper Trading Academy. Hey Scott, how are\u00a0you?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jeff,\u00a0I&#8217;m\u00a0great. How about yourself?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-0\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I&#8217;m\u00a0doing well and love having you\u00a0come in\u00a0here on\u00a0these Wednesday\u00a0mornings to talk about the market and the economy.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And for our listeners, you can find more from Scott at, uh, prospertrading.com or on our website, interactivebrokers.com. Click on Education, find webinars, podcasts, and articles from Scott and Prosper Trading.\u00a0So\u00a0Scott, we have you come in here, you know, every other Wednesday, sometimes every Wednesday, and just kind of, you know, for our listeners that aren&#8217;t familiar, we talk a little bit about the week a- the week be- you know, that we just got through, and then also, like, the week ahead.\u00a0And, you know,\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0like a nice quick five-minute conversation,\u00a0kind of get\u00a0everyone up to speed. So,\u00a0kind of\u00a0first question is, you know, investors received updated GDP and PCE inflation data last week. Did those reports reinforce the\u00a0soft landing\u00a0narratives? Are there signs that, you know, economic growth and inflation are moving in less favorable directions?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-0\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Well, you know, second quarter\u00a0GDP,\u00a0it\u00a0remained\u00a0kind of subdued, right? It was like one and a half percent or so. So that made it seem like things are\u00a0maybe cooling\u00a0down a little bit. And then we got headline and core PCE, which is still sticky and running hot a little bit.\u00a0So, you know, we&#8217;re still seeing some growth, and that&#8217;s alongside these sticky price pressures or so.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And, you&nbsp;know, that, that really muddies the water for the Fed. And I think it&#8230; You know, this data keeps them really cautious. And&nbsp;we&#8217;re&nbsp;most likely going&nbsp;to see a hike in the next&nbsp;couple&nbsp;weeks&nbsp;or so. But we really had a couple&nbsp;data&nbsp;points there that were opposite one another.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-1\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And, you know, equity markets, no matter what, they continue to trade near elevated levels, you know, really despite ongoing uncertainty on rates, you know, global conflict, you know, economic headwinds, commodity prices. What&#8211; You know, what sectors have shown the greatest leadership, you know, especially the last week, I should say, and what does this tell us about investor sentiment currently?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-1\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I think overall investor sentiment is a bit cautious right now.\u00a0Now, it seems, Jeff, like we&#8217;re almost seeing a, a sector rotation almost on a daily basis depending on what the headline news is.\u00a0But, you know, if you look at financials, communication services, consumer discretionary, it seems like those are the sectors right now where some of that tech money, some of the, the money maybe from a little bit of the AI trade has really flowed into.\u00a0And I think that, you know, if investors are going to remain a bit cautious in the near term,\u00a0that&#8217;s\u00a0probably where\u00a0they&#8217;re\u00a0diversifying into.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-2\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Got it. And, you know, we always, Scott, you and I always talk about data, right?\u00a0There&#8217;s\u00a0no shortage of data. In fact, the ADP employment report was, you know, released this morning. It was a m- it was\u00a0basically less\u00a0than expected. It was like 38,000 versus, I\u00a0think,\u00a047,000 was the estimate. And we got\u00a0weekly s-\u00a0you know, weekly jobless claims\u00a0we&#8217;re\u00a0gonna\u00a0release tomorrow.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So&nbsp;both&nbsp;provide&nbsp;additional labor market insights before, you know, Friday&#8217;s payroll report. How important, you know, are this, you know, this week&#8217;s data clusters for, you know,&nbsp;kind of shaping&nbsp;the Fed&#8217;s expectations?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-2\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is really important. I mean, again, I\u00a0th- I think, you know, regardless of what these numbers are, we will see a quarter point increase next week or in a couple\u00a0weeks\u00a0here. But if this, the report on\u00a0Friday, the, the August jobs report, if it is another major miss like we saw last month, that, what that could do is maybe shift the curve down the road a little bit.\u00a0So\u00a0I think\u00a0we&#8217;re\u00a0still\u00a0gonna\u00a0have this September hike, but\u00a0maybe that\u00a0takes a little bit of the pressure, a little, you know, easing that potential for other hikes later in the year, even going into next year.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-3\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Right. And, you know,\u00a0we&#8217;re\u00a0at the tail end of this earnings season, right? But we still\u00a0got\u00a0a few big names coming out, right? We got Broadcom tonight. You know, Hewlett-Packard,\u00a0maybe not\u00a0what it once was, but still, you know, Hewlett-Packard Enterprises, Snowflake.\u00a0What&#8217;s\u00a0the market expecting or, you know, looking for?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-3\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I mean, look at what happened with Dell today, right? That, that stock is like $40 off its highs from\u00a0i- its\u00a0initial\u00a0move. And I think that even with good reports, even with good guidance, the market is really still looking at this\u00a0CapEx, and can these companies support how much\u00a0money that\u00a0they are spending, you know, for future earnings?\u00a0So\u00a0the\u00a0big thing\u00a0is\u00a0gonna\u00a0be guidance,\u00a0maybe less\u00a0CapEx, but\u00a0we&#8217;ll\u00a0see. I mean, Broadcom is going to be a bellwether. You know, you mentioned\u00a0HP\u00a0and I think Snowflake also. You know, we saw what happened with Palo Alto, some of the other stocks in that sector really following that lead.\u00a0So\u00a0we could still see some big movers going\u00a0on\u00a0the rest of this week.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-4\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scott, as this is always, this has been great. A lot of great market talk in\u00a0a short time. You know, we got college football coming up this weekend, but I think\u00a0your, I think your Hoosiers have it against North Texas unless\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0the upset of all upsets. I think\u00a0they&#8217;ll\u00a0be okay.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-4\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We will see what happens there, but\u00a0looking\u00a0forward to it.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-5\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">All right, Scott. Well, thanks for coming by, and until next time, you can find more from Scott at prospertrading.com, as well as on our website, interactivebrokers.com, and click on Education. Thank you.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-5\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thanks a lot, Jeff.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Jeff Praissman and Scott Bauer discuss mixed signals from economic growth, inflation, and the labor market as investors weigh the Fed\u2019s next move. They also look at shifting sector leadership, market sentiment, and what upcoming earnings could reveal about the outlook for stocks. Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 421 The following is a summary of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":914,"featured_media":255368,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[10842,13857],"tags":[15062,2511,9372,267,587,77,4006,446,527,22113,15769,570,2099,850,7590,17708,757,2067,683,3598,1504,15194,19392,18379,18118,8487,12497,4109],"contributors-categories":[13576,16315],"class_list":["post-255347","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-podcasts","category-podcasts","tag-adp-employment-report","tag-broadcom","tag-dell","tag-earnings","tag-economic-growth","tag-fed","tag-fed-policy","tag-federal-reserve","tag-gdp","tag-hewlett-packard-2","tag-ibkr-podcasts","tag-inflation","tag-interactive-brokers","tag-interest-rates","tag-investor-sentiment","tag-jeff-praissman","tag-jobless-claims","tag-jobs-report","tag-labor-market","tag-market-outlook","tag-monetary-policy","tag-pce-inflation","tag-prosper-trading-academy","tag-scott-bauer","tag-sector-rotation","tag-snowflake","tag-soft-landing","tag-stock-market","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers","contributors-categories-prosper-trading-academy"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What Does the Fed Need to See Next? | IBKR Podcasts<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/255347\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What Does the Fed Need to See Next? | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Jeff Praissman and Scott Bauer discuss mixed signals from economic growth, inflation, and the labor market as investors weigh the Fed\u2019s next move. 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