{"id":254985,"date":"2026-08-31T13:15:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-31T17:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=254985"},"modified":"2026-08-31T14:03:04","modified_gmt":"2026-08-31T18:03:04","slug":"fair-value-weather-climate-monday-august-31-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/fair-value-weather-climate-monday-august-31-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Fair Value Weather &amp; Climate \u2014 Monday, August 31, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>A look at some of the most interesting weather and climate prediction markets at ForecastEx and elsewhere.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The ForecastEx daily temperature prediction market for tomorrow, Tuesday, September 1st, 2026, shows notable differences from the National Weather Service (even after accounting for a typical offset), with Los Angeles and Houston both currently three degrees cooler at ForecastEx, and Chicago and Charlotte three degrees warmer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"1765\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-202-1100x1765.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-254989 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-202-1100x1765.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-202-700x1123.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-202-300x481.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-202-768x1232.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-202-957x1536.png 957w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-202.png 1246w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/1765;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">More details on every station on the map are available <a href=\"https:\/\/weather.weatherclimatehumansystems.org\/index.html\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Other notable numbers in brief:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"675\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-199-1100x675.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-254986 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-199-1100x675.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-199-700x430.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-199-300x184.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-199-768x471.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-199-1536x943.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-199.png 1600w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/675;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>1.48\u00b0F<\/strong>, ForecastEx ranks 1st of 12. Average error on daily highs, 7 days through Saturday, 5:00 PM ET day before through 5:00 AM ET. Aviation Forecast next at 1.72\u00b0F<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>11\u00b0F<\/strong>, Largest error, <a href=\"https:\/\/weather.weatherclimatehumansystems.org\/detroit-kdtw.html\">Detroit<\/a> high. Settled 75\u00b0F against 86\u00b0F from the European model<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>9.5\u00d7<\/strong>, Best return on daily temperatures yesterday. No on the New York City low below 70\u00b0 at 10\u00a2, priced 31 hours before it resolved, settled 70\u00b0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>5\u00b0F<\/strong>, Widest disagreement for Tuesday, <a href=\"https:\/\/weather.weatherclimatehumansystems.org\/denver-kbkf.html\">Denver<\/a>. ForecastEx above the National Weather Service forecast on the low<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>39%<\/strong>, At least one major Atlantic hurricane in September. A Yes contract at 39\u00a2 pays 2.5\u00d7 the money put in, net of fees<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Extensive supporting information for all weather, climate and energy markets at ForecastEx can be found <a href=\"https:\/\/weather.weatherclimatehumansystems.org\/index.html\">here<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-most-undervalued-contracts-for-sunday\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Most undervalued contracts for Sunday<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The most undervalued contract for Sunday was a No on the New York City low below 70 degrees. With 31 hours to go, it traded at 10 cents, and the low eventually came in at exactly 70 degrees, which pays No and yielded a 9.5x return net of fees. Denver&#8217;s Yes below 62 degrees returned the same 9.5x from the same price, settling at 59 degrees.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"1026\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-201-1100x1026.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-254988 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-201-1100x1026.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-201-700x653.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-201-300x280.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-201-768x717.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-201-1536x1433.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-201.png 1600w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/1026;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-the-market-to-watch-on-tuesday\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The market to watch on Tuesday<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The forecast for <a href=\"https:\/\/weather.weatherclimatehumansystems.org\/los-angeles-klax.html\">Los Angeles<\/a> tomorrow has some of the highest uncertainty in the country, with thirteen models ranging from 71.8\u00b0F to 83.1\u00b0F on the high end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There is almost as much disagreement on low temperatures (58.0\u00b0F to 69.0\u00b0F), but it&#8217;s not a matter of models disagreeing on overall temperature; rather, it&#8217;s whether the diurnal cycle will be large or small. Models with low lows tend to have higher highs. The American model has a high of 71.8\u00b0F over a low of 69.0\u00b0F, a day that moves less than three degrees from dawn to afternoon, while the European model has 83.1\u00b0F over 64.2\u00b0F. This points to a disagreement about the marine layer breakup.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The European, German, Canadian, German statistical, and National Weather Service forecasts clear low clouds during the morning, with highs from 77.9\u00b0F to 83.1\u00b0F.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Conversely, seven of the thirteen models persist low clouds through the afternoon, with highs from 71.8\u00b0F to 75.0\u00b0F.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thus, it looks like sky cover is the variable that will drive the temperature here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The &#8216;additional variable&#8217; panels on the <a href=\"https:\/\/weather.weatherclimatehumansystems.org\/los-angeles-klax.html\">Los Angeles page<\/a> show each forecast&#8217;s hourly cloud, wind, and dewpoint beneath the emerging observations, so a visitor is able to assess which models look like they might be getting the physical story right <em>before<\/em> it shows up in that model&#8217;s temperature being right.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"657\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-200-1100x657.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-254987 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-200-1100x657.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-200-700x418.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-200-300x179.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-200-768x459.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-200-1536x918.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-200.png 1925w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/657;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Extensive supporting information for all weather, climate, and energy markets at ForecastEx is available <a href=\"https:\/\/weather.weatherclimatehumansystems.org\/index.html\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The ForecastEx daily temperature prediction market for tomorrow, Tuesday, September 1st, 2026, shows notable differences from the National Weather Service (even after accounting for a typical offset), with Los Angeles and Houston both currently three degrees cooler at ForecastEx, and Chicago and Charlotte three degrees warmer.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1601,"featured_media":254992,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18931,18929,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-254985","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-climate-energy","category-prediction-market","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Fair Value Weather &amp; Climate \u2014 Monday, August 31, 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A look at some of the most interesting weather and climate prediction markets at ForecastEx and elsewhere.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/254985\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fair Value Weather &amp; Climate \u2014 Monday, August 31, 2026 | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A look at some of the most interesting weather and climate prediction markets at ForecastEx and elsewhere.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/fair-value-weather-climate-monday-august-31-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta 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