{"id":254976,"date":"2026-08-31T12:57:37","date_gmt":"2026-08-31T16:57:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=254976"},"modified":"2026-08-31T16:51:31","modified_gmt":"2026-08-31T20:51:31","slug":"look-at-the-3-1-0-32-yes-for-tomorrows-euro-cpi-expected-at-3-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/look-at-the-3-1-0-32-yes-for-tomorrows-euro-cpi-expected-at-3-3\/","title":{"rendered":"Look at the 3.1% $0.32 \u201cYes\u201d for Tomorrow\u2019s Euro CPI Expected at 3.3%: Aug. 31, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Tomorrow\u2019s eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to accelerate from 2.9% in July to 3.3% in August, as heavier energy costs have bolstered overall inflation. But in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets, the 3.1% \u201cYes\u201d contract<\/a> is priced at only $0.32, which I find significantly undervalued because this indicator has a subdued deviation rate, meaning it usually arrives near the consensus expectation. Indeed, it rarely beats or misses expectations by more than 0.1%, and for that reason I don\u2019t envision a figure as low as 3.1%. Additionally, I believe the $0.78 \u201cYes\u201d at 3% is cheap as well, against the backdrop of the monthly Reuters poll of 39 forecasters sporting a minimum projection of 3.1% and a maximum estimate of 3.4%.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Consider $0.31 JOLTS \u201cYes\u201d at 7.2 Million<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Job openings have remained north of 7.35 million for three consecutive months but a decline to 7.3 million is expected in tomorrow\u2019s print for July. I believe there\u2019s a mispricing in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets pertaining to this release, as the \u201cYes\u201d contract with a 7.2 million threshold<\/a>, which is well beneath the median estimate, is going for just $0.31. Additionally, I find the \u201cYeses\u201d at 6.8 million at 7 million attractive at $0.89 and $0.76. There is a wide range of potential outcomes for this specific indicator, however, as it carries an elevated deviation rate because it has varied wildly from the consensus at an above-average rate in the past. Indeed, the monthly Reuters poll of 28 forecasters spans from 7.1 million to 7.62 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets. <\/em><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of August 31, 2026.<\/a><\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tomorrow\u2019s eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to accelerate from 2.9% in July to 3.3% in August, as heavier energy costs have bolstered overall 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His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/jose-torres\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/07\/europe-macro-chart-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/254976","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/903"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=254976"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/254976\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":255043,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/254976\/revisions\/255043"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/209828"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=254976"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=254976"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=254976"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=254976"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}