{"id":254876,"date":"2026-08-28T13:24:17","date_gmt":"2026-08-28T17:24:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=254876"},"modified":"2026-08-31T09:54:50","modified_gmt":"2026-08-31T13:54:50","slug":"auto-draft-9","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/ibkr-market-insights\/auto-draft-9\/","title":{"rendered":"After Watching Warsh"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Financial markets had seemingly ground to a halt this morning as traders waited for Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh\u2019s highly anticipated address to the Kansas City Fed\u2019s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.&nbsp; Considering that a portion of the speech was devoted to the notion of a less communicative Fed, the half-hour length took some listeners by surprise.&nbsp; The immediate outcomes were: a 7-basis-point rise in 2-year yields, reflecting higher rate-hike odds; a flattish long end of the Treasury curve; and a \u201cyou may resume your regularly scheduled rally\u201d response from stock traders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While all financial markets pay close attention to central bankers, fixed-income investors are especially tethered to their utterances.&nbsp; Short-term rates move higher and lower based on perceptions about the likelihood of central bank activity.&nbsp; The rise in short-term yields tells us that the bond market is re-solidifying the prospect of rate hikes. Expectations for a 25-basis point hike at the September meeting rose from 31% to 50% on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/predictionmarkets\/app\/#\/853722976\/product-details\/contracts?exchange=KALSHI\">IBKR Prediction Markets<\/a> and from 35% to 57% according to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\">CME FedWatch<\/a>, using Fed Funds futures.&nbsp; That said, the first hike still isn\u2019t fully priced in until December.&nbsp; This has been my opinion for some time because I don&#8217;t think Warsh wants to take flak for hiking before the midterm elections.&nbsp; Perhaps more importantly, a second hike is now fully priced in the middle of 2027. &nbsp;Hence, we see higher short-term rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Long bond yields are relatively stable, but the cause is trickier to discern.&nbsp;&nbsp; Because long-term rates are heavily influenced by inflationary expectations, it is difficult to say whether the main influence for today\u2019s relatively stable 10- and 30-year yields is Warsh\u2019s inflation-fighting rhetoric or traders\u2019 reticence to challenge Treasury Secretary &nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/et-tu-druckenmiller\/\">Bessent&#8217;s buyback<\/a>.&nbsp; Unfortunately, the Chair did not address the pressing question of whether the Treasury\u2019s actions are countering the Fed\u2019s desire for price stability.&nbsp; (By the way, literally as I was typing this, the Japanese yen weakened to 160 vs. the dollar for the first time since the Treasury <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/ibkr-market-insights\/as-the-ratchet-turns\/\">intervened to prop up the yen<\/a> on July 31<sup>st<\/sup>.)<br><br>Meanwhile, stocks seemed to be saying, &#8220;You&#8217;re now free to resume your regularly scheduled rally.&#8221; &nbsp;Today\u2019s initial upward move was quite a bit more balanced than yesterday\u2019s, which can be summed up mainly as &#8220;forget about this rotation thing, we&#8217;re back to buying tech.&#8221; &nbsp;&nbsp;In recent weeks, we have seen many investors favoring a wider range of stocks, including more value-oriented basic industries and consumer-related shares.&nbsp; Yesterday, with relatively few exceptions, it was tech and only tech.&nbsp; This was evidenced by 197 more decliners than advancers among the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) yesterday and by the fact that only one sector \u2013 technology \u2013 gained in SPX yesterday.&nbsp; (As I type this, SPX advances are leading declines by 35 and about half the SPX sectors are higher.)&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I just finished an interview with a foreign journalist who asked some pointed questions about Federal Reserve credibility.&nbsp; He understandably wondered whether a Fed Chair who talks tough about fighting inflation risks squandering valuable credibility via inaction, especially if the FOMC waits until December for its first move.&nbsp; If the stasis is indeed politically motivated, it is fair to wonder whether the committee is missing a valuable opportunity to assert its independence, especially when the Treasury\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/et-tu-druckenmiller\/\">pseudo-\u201cOperation Twist\u201d<\/a> seems to be at odds with Warsh\u2019s rhetoric.&nbsp; For obvious reasons, Warsh made no mention of that key question today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">During the time I spent speaking to the media, stocks began to fade.&nbsp; SPX was about 20 points higher when I started writing today; now it\u2019s down by nearly the same amount; and 2-year rates are now up by more than 10 basis points instead of 7.&nbsp; The adage \u201cdon\u2019t short a dull tape\u201d often applies on a summer Friday with few catalysts.&nbsp; Warsh\u2019s speech was the third key catalyst of the week, after the PCE report and Nvidia (NVDA) earnings.&nbsp; For the bond market, at least, today\u2019s speech was a very important catalyst.&nbsp; For markets as a whole, two out of three proved very consequential.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Financial markets had seemingly ground to a halt this morning as traders waited for Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh\u2019s highly anticipated address to the Kansas City Fed\u2019s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.  Considering that a portion of the speech was devoted to the notion of a less communicative Fed, the half-hour length took some listeners by surprise.  The immediate outcomes were: a 7-basis-point rise in 2-year yields, reflecting higher rate-hike odds; a flattish long end of the Treasury curve; and a \u201cyou may resume your regularly scheduled rally\u201d response from stock traders.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":143597,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-254876","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>After Watching Warsh | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Financial markets had seemingly ground to a halt this morning as traders waited for Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh\u2019s highly anticipated address to...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/254876\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"After Watching Warsh | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Financial markets had seemingly ground to a halt this morning as traders waited for Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh\u2019s highly anticipated address to the Kansas City Fed\u2019s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. 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