{"id":254856,"date":"2026-08-28T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-28T17:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=254856"},"modified":"2026-08-28T14:52:57","modified_gmt":"2026-08-28T18:52:57","slug":"odds-of-a-september-hike-jump-to-52-post-jackson-hole","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/odds-of-a-september-hike-jump-to-52-post-jackson-hole\/","title":{"rendered":"Odds of a September Hike Jump To 52% Post Jackson Hole: Aug. 28, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh\u2019s Jackson Hole speech this morning almost doubled the odds of a September hike. After delivering his hawkish presentation in which he emphasized his unwavering commitment to quelling inflation in light of strong economic activity and full employment that warrants policymakers having a single, rather than dual, mandate focus, the probability of an increase next month jumped from 31% to 52%<\/a>. The repricing follows a July press conference in which the chief seemed to turn towards an increasingly patient approach following June\u2019s message of discipline on the cost front. Today\u2019s update featured a sense of urgency from the central bank leader, pushing the likelihood of a second 25-basis point lift occurring prior to year-end up to 29% from 21%, according to the December “Yes” contract at the 3.875% threshold, which indicates more tightening potentially in the pipeline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets. <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of August 28, 2026.<\/a><\/em> To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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