{"id":254855,"date":"2026-08-28T12:55:48","date_gmt":"2026-08-28T16:55:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=254855"},"modified":"2026-08-28T13:31:07","modified_gmt":"2026-08-28T17:31:07","slug":"fair-value-weather-climate-friday-august-28-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/fair-value-weather-climate-friday-august-28-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Fair Value Weather &amp; Climate \u2014 Friday, August 28, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>A look at some of the most interesting weather and climate prediction markets at ForecastEx and elsewhere.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"1350\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-194-1100x1350.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-254861 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-194-1100x1350.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-194-700x859.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-194-300x368.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-194-768x942.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-194-1252x1536.png 1252w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-194.png 1600w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/1350;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The desert Southwest has the warmest forecasts, with <a href=\"https:\/\/weather.weatherclimatehumansystems.org\/city.html?station=KPHX\">Phoenix<\/a> at a high of 108\u00b0F and <a href=\"https:\/\/weather.weatherclimatehumansystems.org\/city.html?station=KLAS\">Las Vegas<\/a> at 103\u00b0F, while the two West Coast marine stations, <a href=\"https:\/\/weather.weatherclimatehumansystems.org\/city.html?station=KSFO\">San Francisco<\/a> at 67\u00b0F and <a href=\"https:\/\/weather.weatherclimatehumansystems.org\/city.html?station=KSEA\">Seattle<\/a> at 68\u00b0F, are sixty degrees below them.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">More details on every station on the map are available <a href=\"https:\/\/weather.weatherclimatehumansystems.org\/index.html\">here<\/a>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-other-notable-numbers-in-brief-nbsp\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Other notable numbers in brief:&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"675\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-191-1100x675.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-254858 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-191-1100x675.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-191-700x430.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-191-300x184.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-191-768x471.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-191-1536x943.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-191.png 1600w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/675;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>1.35\u00b0F<\/strong>, ForecastEx ranks 1st of 12. Average error on daily highs, 7 days, 5:00 PM ET day before through 5:00 AM ET. Aviation Forecast next at 1.55\u00b0F<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>7\u00b0F<\/strong>, Largest error, <a href=\"https:\/\/weather.weatherclimatehumansystems.org\/city.html?station=KLGA\">New York City<\/a> high. Settled 77\u00b0F against 84\u00b0F from the National Weather Service<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>18.2\u00d7<\/strong>, Best return on daily temperatures yesterday. Yes on the <a href=\"https:\/\/weather.weatherclimatehumansystems.org\/city.html?station=KLAX\">Los Angeles<\/a> high above 87\u00b0 at 5\u00a2, priced 34 hours before it resolved, settled 88\u00b0, net of fees<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>4\u00b0F<\/strong>, Widest disagreement for Saturday, <a href=\"https:\/\/weather.weatherclimatehumansystems.org\/city.html?station=KLGA\">New York City<\/a>. ForecastEx below the National Weather Service forecast on the high<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>39%<\/strong>, At least one major Atlantic hurricane in September. A Yes contract at 39\u00a2 pays 2.5\u00d7 the money put in, net of fees<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Extensive supporting information for all weather, climate and energy markets at ForcastEx can be found <a href=\"https:\/\/weather.weatherclimatehumansystems.org\/index.html\">here<\/a>.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-most-undervalued-contracts-for-thursday\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Most undervalued contracts for Thursday<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The most undervalued contract for Thursday was a Yes on the <a href=\"https:\/\/weather.weatherclimatehumansystems.org\/city.html?station=KLAX\">Los Angeles<\/a> high above 87 degrees. With 34 hours to go, it was trading at 5 cents, and the high eventually came in at 88 degrees, yielding an 18.2x return net of fees.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"1158\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-193-1100x1158.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-254860 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-193-1100x1158.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-193-700x737.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-193-300x316.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-193-768x809.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-193-1459x1536.png 1459w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-193.png 1600w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/1158;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-the-market-that-surprised-the-models-on-thursday\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The market that surprised the models on Thursday<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 5:00 pm on Wednesday, the 11 tools forecast a high range from 78\u00b0F to 84\u00b0F in <a href=\"https:\/\/weather.weatherclimatehumansystems.org\/city.html?station=KLGA\">New York City<\/a>, yet the high came in below all of them at 77\u00b0F. The high was reached at 10:51 AM, and temperatures never progressed higher after that.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There was notable cloud cover for most of the day, and rain began around 11:00 AM, so it appears that the models erred by bringing the clouds and rain in too late relative to what actually occurred.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"843\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-192-1100x843.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-254859 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-192-1100x843.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-192-700x537.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-192-300x230.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-192-768x589.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-192-1536x1177.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-192.png 1837w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/843;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-the-market-to-watch-on-saturday\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The market to watch on Saturday<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/weather.weatherclimatehumansystems.org\/city.html?station=KJAX\">Jacksonville<\/a> is among the markets with the largest uncertainty, with thirteen models currently ranging from 82.2\u00b0F to 91.1\u00b0F on the high.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The overnight low varies by only 1.5\u00b0F across these models, indicating they agree on the general airmass temperature but disagree on what will happen in the afternoon, where uncertainty revolves around when and how severe convective thunderstorm activity will be.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The American, Canadian, high-resolution rapid refresh, and National Weather Service models predict sun through midday, with highs near 90\u00b0F.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Conversely, the European, German, and Japanese models develop clouds and rain earlier, resulting in highs in the low 80s.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The key thing to watch then will be <em>when<\/em> storms begin to develop.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Extensive supporting information for all weather, climate and energy markets at ForcastEx can be found <a href=\"https:\/\/weather.weatherclimatehumansystems.org\/index.html\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A look at some of the most interesting weather and climate prediction markets at ForecastEx and elsewhere.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1601,"featured_media":254857,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18931,18929,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-254855","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-climate-energy","category-prediction-market","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Fair Value Weather &amp; Climate \u2014 Friday, August 28, 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A look at some of the most interesting 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